Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

nacho libre

A friend just showed me a picture of the snow he got five years ago. His back door was blocked from top to bottom due to a snow drift! I am gutted I was not here for that. I was not expecting anything like that this week of course, but a decent snow event would have been good!

walterking

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313650#Comment_120313650

Tell them to stop reading the daily mail.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z does show slow moving frontal snow later Weds into Thurs but rain following and getting up to 12C as the milder airs flood in unimpeded whilst staying cold in the furthest North over reamaining snow.

Mad run goes on to show 14 to 15C on Fri and up to 12C on Sat bit cooler again over the weekend and then the maddest chart showing heavy Snow Tuesday in the the top third of the country with huge accumulations of 10 to 18cm, staying below freezing over the snow fields by 12.00 while it is 12C in Cork 🤣🤣

Need a bucket of salt with that one but maybe this is an outlier with the mild from Thursday.

ICON EU showing frontal snow later Weds into Thurs and staying cold. GFS showing no front and staying cold. GEM showing frontal snow in Munster and the colder airmass still intact, keeping the much milder air well offshore.

So lots of uncertainty.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314348#Comment_120314348

Me consigning this thread and cold spell to the recycle bin and then reading meteorite's post

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314262#Comment_120314262

Things were starting to look exciting about 3 days ago and then that mild ECM run came through and since then we have never really recovered, this now looks fairly uneventful for the country unless we see sudden upgrades over the next 24 hours which I don't think will happen.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120312907#Comment_120312907

re your last sentence. No it does not! The last days have been perfect weather, mild and kindly

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314423#Comment_120314423

I'm with you on your comment @Graces7 - I've been enjoying the weather of late, except the times it's been wet/drizzly, of course. So great to see the ground so dry in most parts.

WolfeEire

ECM op run showing Thursday warmup to be on the extreme mild end of the ensembles. Return to milder weather much slower based on the mean

JanuarySnowstor

I've lived through 50 years of Winters and I find the following odd

- No hurricane hitting land in 10 years+

- Sudden change in projected synoptics with little notice

I strongly believe weather modification is going on at a top secret level. For various reasons more so this year. I don't ever remember a Winter where high pressure just sat over us. 50 years is a long stat!!

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314760#Comment_120314760

Put down the wine 😂

AnFearCeart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314760#Comment_120314760

https://haarp.gi.alaska.edu/

Some sceptics suspect this facility and other similar ones have the ability to alter//influence weather patterns. Perhaps or perhaps not, but there probably are projects ongoing into the study of weather modification. I think in the future we'll have the technology to alter the weather to benefit crop growing, encourage rainfall in arid lands etc...

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314760#Comment_120314760

They must have it in for California then 😂

OldRio

So. A busted flush. Delighted. Bring on spring.

WolfeEire

18z GFS prolongs cold until Friday morn in South and sat morn in northern counties delivering a snow to rain event for northern half of island at least. Potential for some light to moderate backedge snow for a time Monday Eve into night as a cold front sinks south. It will be all change for better or worse tomorrow, depending on what season youre looking for.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314913#Comment_120314913

That's always far and away the most likely scenario but unless you have a crystal ball, a bit early to call that as a certainty. Taken literally, several current charts including the most recent (18z gfs) show snow next week for many.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315129#Comment_120315129

A crystal ball might be an improvement on some of the computer models.

Rebelbrowser

Silence this morning is telling. This looks very shortlived now and, unless the gfs is right, pretty unremarkable

esposito

Fair play to you for having the b***s to set up the thread though. It was looking good a few days ago. We were fooled again by the models.

Derekon2021

Indeed. And let that be a very valuable lesson for new posters to the forum. If there is even a wee chance of snow chances evaporating, they will. Golden Rule: The Atlantic Ocean is king in terms of Irish winters - and that means dismal snow prospects......

D

Gonzo

Another set of GFS FI charts over the past week which once again fail to verify. I'm beginning to wonder has any of the GFS FI charts i've posted since early late November actually verified in the end? The ECM did toy with the idea of a proper cold spell for a little while but nowhere near the extent of the GFS and ECM was also first to give us the wake up call. After an entire winter of disappointment, this busted flush comes as no surprise where the Atlantic or high pressure just killls any chances of snow each and every time. We may have another go at a cold spell in the second half of March but i've zero interest by that point. Now let's start wishing for warmer weather soon with some proper spring like conditions with my thoughts now moving towards the summer.

squonk

Yeah I salute your enthusiasm but after being arid here a long time and being perched in the edge of the Atlantic I have seen enough busts from promising scenarios to be very wary until the snow is actually falling pretty much. In the end though that’s mostly what AB lot of us were going to see, snow falling but being too wet to stick and if it did, melting before anyone could freely enjoy it. Too late in the year now and ultimately we’re a snag island surrounded by a relatively warm ocean. That’s never a good start. March 2018 is one of those delightful outliers and just shows that we know what to expect 99.9% of the time but it’s that 0.1% that covers along and surprises you. Never say never of course but I don’t expect to see a significant snowfall like 2018 at this point of March in the rest of my lifetime.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315920#Comment_120315920

...and the start of another 7 months now of you complaining ad nauseam about the lack of any sun and warmth.

Oscar Bravo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315961#Comment_120315961

Lol classic . Yer man from Clonmel aswel

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315961#Comment_120315961

I didn't complain about it much since the summer of 2020 which was brutal. The past 2 summers have been decent especially for warm to high temperatures.

Discodog

I am just back from a walk. The breeze is cold but there's now real warmth from the sun. Any snow won't last long unless it stays cloudy

Meteorite58

First I think this thread is totally warranted, the thread is very well titled Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

I respect that there are many different perspectives, hopes, wishes, dreams and as such there will be corresponding emotions but lets not loose track of the thread title.

I think it is likely that there will be snow at times next week in the middle of wintry precipitation. From word go this has always been the case. There will be snow and hail showers of the convective nature around the coasts initially, mostly in Northern areas with some moving inland but there is a fair chance of frontal snow as well, ECM showing from early Weds forming in the SW and slowly moving up the country, but not a lot of support for this from the other models apart from GEM....and yes this could be followed by sleet and rain but hey that is the weather.

I feel there is no point coming into this thread bemoaning the fact that there is not a foot of powder snow, that was always highly unlikely and it wont happen this week coming. It will be rain or sleet or snow and wet at that probably, relatively short lived with what now looks like fronts lining up to cross the country from Weds/ Thurs, these may still be wintry over Northern counties into Fri with snow accumulations possible there at times, especially over more elevated terrain.

So ECM now brining the front slowly up over the country on Weds keeping day time temperatures quite low especially where snow is lying. GFS delays this until late Weds into Thurs. ICON not showing the front on Weds sticking to Thurs, GEM quite similar to the ECM

Not as mild now for Thurs but showing touching 10C around Southern coastal areas. ECM sticking to very mild for most away from Northern areas on Fri after initially being very wet overnight into the morning, breezy to windy also ( see a 15C down South !). Looks like plenty of rain after that at times but could get a bit colder again the following week with the chance of wintry showers.

Temp prediction during Weds daylight hours below giving some small amounts of lying snow for a time but all open to change as we well know.

pauldry

A lot of pinches of salt are needed for this spell because while that accumulated snow chart looks like the country is covered it is really the amount of snow that falls from the sky. e.g 3cm of snow could fall over the course of a couple of days and none lie which is likely in March.

Ulster will probably have some lying snow but anywhere else extremely borderline. The deep cold always stays North of us on the ECM but reaches Ulster for a time. Probably 4 to 6c for the rest of the country most of the week. Might be ice at night and some snow then.

Keithchap

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-blocking-system-polar-vortex-collapse-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

A strong Blocking system is forming over Greenland, changing the Weather patterns across Northern Hemisphere as we head into Spring

CrowdedHouse

Well we have an aul ice warning anyway

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1632371703614414848?s=20

King of Spades

My brother in London just said it’s snowing lightly there now despite it being 5c and not feeling that cold.