Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March
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ICON 12z sees a snow/sleet to rain event on Wednesday with much milder temps over the southern two thirds of the country by the end of the day. For the next 7 days thereafter, a cold airmass sits just to the north of Ireland. Northern Scotland holds on to winter throughout. High pressure to our south acts as the bouncer and no cold is getting in 🤚
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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There is a lot to play for at the end of next week into next weekend. That 12Z GFS is a snow fest for Ulster and north Connacht.
That deep cold to the north stops the mild from advancing to far north with Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster staying under them cold uppers next Saturday. Cold air then flooding southward next Sunday and early next week.
The ECMWF on and off has been showing potential for big snow accumulations come early the following week just like today's 12Z GFS. The latest chart is mad.
We have seen this in the past were we get a cold spell and just a few days before models push out the length of the cold.
This evenings Ecmwf 12Z run will be interesting aswell as the models over the next few days.
As Kermit said above some areas most likely Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster are in with a good chance of frontal snow later next week and next weekend with places further south best chances coming late Wednesday into Friday.
Interesting times ahead and no point of throwing your toys out of the pram at this stage.
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Bank! Of course it will probably have all changed by tomorrow. If the models have got it wrong on the strength of the block this will be corrected southwards in time. Which means the cold air stays further south. On current guidance it looks like the North hangs on to the cold till the weekend.
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As to be expected from run to run moving where is going to get a dump of frontal snow around and timing certainly not nailed down but still potential.
The cold gets well entrenched before the fronts make contact.
While we are watching the cold outbreak to note that set to get quite wet and windy also over the weekend into the following week.
GFS on snow steroids for the following week showing a bulls eye Lp moving into the cold airmass and quickly dragging in the cold behind it, ECM not showing the very snow charts of yesterday but going for wintry widespread showers. In all it looks very unsettled over the weekend into the early days of the following week with cold potential returning.
Picked out some of the individual 850hPa charts ( about 5000ft but as low as 3800 ft when the pressure is lower ) -8c pushing well down the country at times, -9C further N, the WRF showing -10C further N
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Intriguing to watch the Atlantic system on Wed night into Thursday clash with the colder airmass. Significant snow potential for the northern half of the island. What's particularly interesting is how long Ulster and north Connacht (northern coastal counties in particular) hold on to the colder airmass as the Atlantic system stalls for a period. Quite a dumping of snow possible for these counties. Intrigued to see what tomorrow's runs will bring and whether the system does in fact stall as it is presently showing from Thursday Eve into Saturday, or if the cold ultimately will win out.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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