Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March
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03-03-2023 3:28pm#1
Hi all
Appreciate I will get criticism for starting this thread but I'm starting as:-
- Cold spell threads are fun (even when they are a bust)
- Its the last hurrah for this winter (and see 1 above)
- There are a lot of us following, specifically, the potential for cold next week and having to post about it on the technical charts - which isn't correct
- I said on a thread about 3 days ago that someone would open a thread - and so I'm now doing it to make my own prediction come true!
- Most importantly, because the current indications mean there is chance we will see an event next week actually worthy of its own thread.
On that there is lots of model uncertainty. There seems to a general consensus now (and apologies for the non technical description, I'm not one of the more knowledgeable posters) that will see artic air descend from the N/NE over the entire country overnight Monday into Tuesday 7 March. I think there is a consensus also that it will be, to use a technical term, bloody cold on Tuesday.
Beyond that the consensus ends. The ECM, the most reliable model, has it as a 1 day "event" only before mild air pushes back in. Even as a one day event it might be pretty forgettable with no snow and, in truth, nothing remarkable in terms of temps, etc.
The GFS, being the American model, is far less reliable but, for what it is worth, has the spell lasting several days.
Moreover, all the models are flipping here and there and clearly it is a knife edge situation as to what happens after Wednesday.
The most up to date charts we have are the 6z GFS. They do show fairly notable weather for next Tuesday morning. I've pasted the charts for 7am below and they show temps down to -6, windchill adjusted temps down to -10, upper temps over the country of -8 and below as well as thickness values that would easily support snow if there was the precipitation.
Snow prospects definitely best for northern areas at first. If the spell is prolonged though there is always the holy grail scenario of atlantic fronts pushing up against, and ultimately sliding under, the cold air leading to a potential white gold fest. Highly unlikely but...
Just as a teaser, here's a chart of 10 March on the 6z GFS showing sneachta as far south as this here county (and yes, its only 1cm)
So all in all, there's definitely a good chance this could be a whole load of nothing, but there is a chance it could be something more than that and worthy of a thread.
If it turns out to be a bust, so be it, its fun to post anyway....
Post edited by Meteorite58 on40
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ECM Monday 1pm and the cold air is knocking on the door of the north coast
Tuesday
Wednesday
By Thursday there’s a huge contrast. Uppers of 2c touching the extreme South coast and -8 over the northern third.
Friday is pretty similar
By Saturday -6 uppers cling to the far north but milder air is beginning to have more of a presence across the country
Small distances and big margins. It will chop and change as ever. Let’s see how it plays out.
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Thanks Reblebrowser for starting the thread, no doubt lots of uncertainty , when is there any certainty especially with snow in Ireland and March to boot! But too many signs to ignore with the forecasted cold and possibility of snow at times 😀
First spell of interesting weather in a long while. Definitely a battleground situation over Ireland but that is where you want it for snow in a set up like this and as said above the margins are on a knife-edge. Huge cold to tap into, track of LP systems and the associated fronts will be eagerly followed no doubt over the coming days. Certainly a chance of a dump of snow or two ( currently looking around Thurs and the weekend is possible further North ). How far the fronts will progress into the cold will be interesting. Will also have snow showers and hail showers in their own right drifting on to the coasts and further inland coming from the instability over the sea. The LP's look deeper on the GFS which would give breezy to windy conditions at times leading to some notable sharp Windchill's.
Some very sharp frosts during the week possible which must be of concern to farmers and horticulturists. Could get some big temperature contrasts between the North and the south of the country at times, ECM showing 10 to 12C in the Saturday and 1 or 2C in the North for a time.
Be it snow or rain the ECM is showing accumulations higher than recent times but probably around average for the time of the year, heaviest in the S of the country. It will put an end to the gorse fires if anything!
So, much debating and scrutiny of the charts and forecasts over the coming days .
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Basically we stay on the northern flank of the low pressure centre as it crosses from Mizen Head to St. Davids in Wales if you can draw a line. The low slides under or keeps south of the high pressure to the north.
You want lows running in along the blue arrows to help keep the cold north east flow coming.
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