Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

TTLF

That GFS run is the run that keeps on giving, up to FIVE different frontal snow events for the stretch of Galway to Dublin between the 9th and 19th 😶

200motels

I very much doubt we here in Waterford will get any snow as we're to close to the sea.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319072#Comment_120319072

Didn't matter in March 2018.

If you get the right airmass, flow and feed of moisture, you could get snow far more likely than many in this upcoming spell.

It may not be too disruptive, especially if its showery, but it can't be ruled out yet.

NMB

Need the frog back - I wouldn’t of bet anything at noon yesterday. Now I’m thinking a conservative bet on a fat stacked poker game. I’m in Mullingar so we’ve a good chance of some centralised country snow.

Graces7

Bitterly cold. And still...Just checked met ie. They agree.

A watch and wait situation..

Graces7

Bitterly cold. Watching the drama unfold.... lol..Camera poised...

Niall145

Heavy snow for Thursday on both GFS and ECM

slay55

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319332#Comment_120319332

I thought the weather wasn’t for our entertainment as you appointed out a few posts ago ….

Rebelbrowser

Just looking at the various high resolution models (Aperge, Aroma, Icon and some other one on Meteociel!) , I think a lot of people in Munster will have a dusting by this time tomorrow. Probably no more than that but I'd take it.

Rebelbrowser

Definitely think then for later in the week the band from Galway to Dublin northwards should seem some decent fall(s)

Rebelbrowser

On an imby perspective, Cork has a decent chance at this time tomorrow and then again on Wednesday but the latter will probably be sleet / snow first, then rain.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319379#Comment_120319379

Yes your right, almost every model is showing sleet/snow in the very South between 2 and 6am tomorrow morning. Met Eireann mention nothing by the way eventhough the risk of at least falling snow is clear to see

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319389#Comment_120319389

Their website has sleet / snow if you look at the hour by hour forecast for, say, Cork city. Will only be a dusting and will probably melt soon after but hey ho ...

Cluedo Monopoly

I dreamt it had snowed last night. It was wet snow and didn't stick on the ground but there was some on the grass. I am losing it...

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319517#Comment_120319517

At least you saw some snow!!!

Yeah Cork will hopefully get some snow tonight but only looks like a dusting for us.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319355#Comment_120319355

No it is not! It is the reactions here that are.... interesting! Which are quite separate from the actual weather of course. One leads to the other. Speculation

nacho libre

Nice. Of course these charts can be misleading as it counts everything that falls as accumulated snow. Even so it's nice to imagine all that snow sticking!! However It will probably end up as rain on the day knowing our luck.

Rebelbrowser

6z icon for 6am tomorrow

.Donegal.

Yellow - Snow and Ice Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

Snow showers and icy patches likely to cause some travel disruption.

Valid: 21:00 Monday 06/03/2023 to 10:00 Tuesday 07/03/2023

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319792#Comment_120319792

Looks fairly patchy but wait and see.

highdef

The latest GFS run is looking far more like reality with snow neither as widespread nor as heavy as the last few runs. The vast majority of areas seeing no more than a dusting to light accumulation (1 -> 3cm). Mountains of course would do better, as almost always. Glad to see charts that make more sense.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319911#Comment_120319911

The ECM disagrees.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319911#Comment_120319911

Yet Met E don’t even know what’s happening beyond midweek?

Gonzo

looks like I missed all the fun and games in the model watching yesterday afternoon and evening. Looking at this mornings models it does look like many areas will see mixed wintry precipitation over the coming week before it turns milder on Friday/Saturday. We could well have another cold snap the following week with a reload of cold for St Patricks.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319938#Comment_120319938

Yeah, but those charts assume that every bit of snow that does fall will accumulate. With temperatures away from high ground forecast to be generally above 0° during the day in the latest ECMWF forecast, I can foresee a massive slushfest, especially on lower ground, say below 150m or so.

At 14:00 this Thursday, ECMWF is showing widespread moderate to heavy snow right across the northern 1/3 of the country:

Snow depths for the same time also look very healthy and are increasing hour on hour:

But look at the expected temperatures at the same time. The two area showing temps around 0° are areas of hill/small mountain ranges. Can't view wet bulb or DP's in the viewer I'm using but I'd be fairly sure they'd be very close to actual temperature as the air will likely to be almost fully saturated.

Based on the info I can see in the latest ECMWF run, there may well be falling snow in many parts of the top 1/3 to 1/4 of the country with higher ground (say 150/200m and above) getting decent accumulations and above about 300m getting plastered with snow.

I also think (again, based on the latest ECMWF run.....my opinions may change when the next run rolls out) that this will be a mainly Ulster impacting event and even at that, low ground would not be too badly affected however Ulster does contain a lot of fairly high ground so it could be more impacting compared to if similar synoptics occured in Leinster, for example, where the land is generally of low altitude ASL.

Meteorite58

ECM 0OZ

nacho libre

That snowy ecmf run will most likely be far less so closer to the time. I think North Connacht and Ulster would do well from that, if the snow is heavy it will drag down the temperature enough to stick, but higher ground is always going to do better. It won't surprise me if closer to the time that snow is confined to Ulster only due to the milder air. However as mentioned I think any milder turn will be brief. As always Scotland and the far North of England may be the sweet spot. It probably won't turn milder in Scotland at all. I think anyone looking for spring warmth is going to be waiting a while.

JanuarySnowstor

Finally Met Eireann mention sleet and snow risk tonight for the South. Wow that took its time coming, the models have been showing it for 4 days

almostthere12

Arome and Harmonie both onboard for snow for the south tonight but looks fairly light.

.Donegal.

Thursday looking very interesting. What a week to be away😝.

Yellow - Snow Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

Snow could develop quite widely across the warning area on Thursday and Friday as a potentially quite deep area of low pressure moves across the UK. Parts of Northern Ireland, north Wales and northern England are currently expected to see the worst of the conditions on Thursday. Event totals could bring 5 to 10 cm of snow to many locations, even at low elevations, with potentially 15 to 20 cm accumulating across the northern portion of the warning area. Higher elevations of the North Pennines, Southern Uplands, higher parts of the Central Belt and the southern Highlands may see as much as 30 to 40 cm of snow in places. In addition, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow.