Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

Supercell

Charts this morning have the mild air pushing back in by Wednesday with the cold barely arriving on Tuesday. Not expecting much, if anything in Dublin of note.

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120311688#Comment_120311688

Rain and strong westerly winds potentailly.

fits

Ahh I just want spring now.

Ryanair have very reasonably priced flights to Lapland for March if anyone is craving snow. It’s a great time to go north. We are just back and that’s my snow fix until next year I hope.

Rebelbrowser

All the charts I see Supercell have the cold fighting back again and have cold potential off and on til the weekend. Still very much in the balance

Niall145

Also several frontal snow opportunities showing on both the GFS and ECM for later next week (Thursday/Friday in particular)

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120312035#Comment_120312035

Maybe, my feeling is its just too late, even if the cold does win out its going to be a hillls and mountains affair away from the far north and northwest.

Here's how midday Tuesday looked yesterday :

And today - Note the placement of the 528 dam for the same time, atlantic lows to the sw deeper also, milder air pushing in earlier, maybe it will push back later on though as the high is higher too, could be very stormy in the south:

Rebelbrowser

I hear you Supercell. Not saying for a moment this won't prove to be a damp "squid"

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120312271#Comment_120312271

“More runs needed” 😀 As you say Rebelbrowswer it is very much in the balance.

JanuarySnowstor

It's 50/50 at the moment

The coldest uppers have subtly backed off which of course could upgrade again.

An interesting week but no 2018

squonk

What’s the point in getting a snowfall only for it to melt within the hour? I don’t see the point of this thread with the temperatures the way they are. This isn’t going to be match 2018 again and whatever does fall will melt as the temperatures aren’t generally low enough plus it looks way too marginal for me so if you’d do get score it’ll be wet snow.

JanuarySnowstor

Game on again for the South as the deeper cold is back on the 06z. The South Coast is looking the sweet spot for now, cols enough for snow and close enough for ppn

Probably be all change again later

almostthere12

If we have to wait to start a snow thread until we have a match for 2018 then hopefully we will be able to start another one within the next 95 years!! 😉

pauldry

Think Ulster could get a repeat of 2013. The rest of us will be excited to just see some snow showers but not much lying away from high ground.

The deep blue is mainly focused on Ulster so Monday into Tuesday for most of us but a little longer for Northern Ireland with snow building all the time there.

While it will likely stay cold all week in many parts away from the South the uppers will be slightly too high for widespread snow after Monday night into Tuesday morning. More messy hail and sleet type showers after this.

At least there will be weather. I actually see a clear slot to the Northwest today. Is it possible that after 8 days of cloudy nothingness we may see the sun today? Probably not but we can hope.

Foggy Jew

Now I know where the expression ‘Changes like the weather’ comes from. 😬

Gusser09

Bitter out last few days. Hopefully its just the last bit of winter.

Gonzo

Next week looks nothing more than nuisance cold for the majority of Ireland, extremely marginal stuff, not expecting anything other than maybe sleet or snow falling onto wet ground if we're lucky. We need a long fetch unstable direct hit and none of the models suggest anything like that for us other than glancing blows of cold into the north with uppers too mild across the southern 2/3s of the country with too much of an Atlantic influence.

pauldry

But there will be weather instead of ☁️ ☁️ ☁️ ☁️ ☁️ ☁️ ☁️ ☁️ which has been the last 8 days.

Hail and sleet and looking at pink and greens on net weather beats this.

nacho libre

I think there will be some snow about in places. The problem is the direct Northerly that was on the table a few days ago is gone due to frontal systems, so there won't be many showers about. We don't get the coldest uppers but you still can get decent frontal snow events when things are marginal. This remains a possibility for some parts of the country. What we can say for definite is this is more or less standard winter fare not a beast from the north. If there is another build of high pressure towards the north west after mid month, hopefully we get a direct hit- we will need it to deliver at that stage. In any event I think March is going to come in colder than average. So those wanting spring warmth may have to wait till April for that. In the worse case scenario spring could below average temperature wise.

Meteorite58

No Beast from the East or North East or anywhere else but cold early Spring weather with wintry showers some of snow for a time maybe later Monday coming onto the NW, N and NE coasts and possibly running down the Irish sea and maybe clipping the East or along Western coasts and maybe moving more inland on Tuesday and then will have to see what the fronts do and how much cold is present for them to interact with . The charts have been showing different tracks with every run , some slow moving and stalling or pivoting depending on the track and forward momentum of the parent Lows. Pot luck on who gets the rain, sleet, wet snow or dryer snow on more elevated ground. There is no doubt what falls as snow may not last very long ,if it is snow men you are wanting to build you better not wait too long 😁 and of course what falls at night has a better chance of lasting longer in the ground.

Coldest weather favoring the Northern half of the country in general. ECM is showing frontal snow dump potential, especially the weekend.

For me not expecting snow in my area here near the Kerry coast, rarely get any in any year but interesting in a meteorological point of view to observe how this develops and in my own very amateur way try and guess the outcomes. Would expect some great photographs next week of at least hill and mountain snow and I feel there is a good chance of a dump somewhere from frontal snow. Cameras at the ready.

I think we must not forget some or most areas next week that although will be on the dry side for good parts of the week up until after mid week will be just getting cold, at times sleety , frontal rain. The weather turns more unsettled from around mid week /Thursday by the looks of it. But the fun is trying to predict where will get the snow if any closer to the time.

All the time happening as we move further into Spring with ever increasing strength in the sun but as has been said at least it is weather watching, a good entry point into the the more unstable airmass later March into April as we get some big Cb's with hail and thunderstorms.

Around next weekend GFS showing windy wet and snowy weather from frontal systems, ECM going for a good frontal snow dump and getting windy for a time after the weekend but all along way off to know for certain but watching with keen eyes.

JanuarySnowstor

The Icon is further South again with Wednesday ppn. South as in missing us entirely. The benefit is its also a little colder!

WolfeEire

No signs of a resurgent return of the Atlantic conveyor belt in the medium term.

JanuarySnowstor

GFS and Ukmo are dry and cold with everything moved South. By Friday amazingly they both agree on a quick breakdown to mild and wet with very little in the way of transient snowfall.

What a fail Winter 22/23 has been. After months of boredom it can't even produce right at the end. Not one but two SSWs and still a fail!!

WolfeEire

All 12z output points to a fairly unremarkable cold spell. The midweek low shifts further south which isn't unexpected as models initially tend to overegg lows when they come up against a block. The retreat west of the Greenland high into Canada is the death of any prospects of the cold spell lasting beyond Thursday/Friday.

So many factors need to be in place for widespread snow to fall in Ireland. Right now looking at the prospects, it's like working for hours on a 1000 piece Jigsaw knowing youre missing a couple of corner pieces. There will be more changes by this time tomorrow but the window for anything very wintry occuring is closing quickly.

Beechwoodspark

I had 3 different people mention “100% there’s snow due for next week” to me between yesterday and today.

Boys oh boys but It’s mad how the hype train builds up so much steam in Ireland.

Then after all the talk and hype the event itself disappoints - inevitably

nacho libre

Some of the models do still offer some snow next week. Let's wait and see what the ECM says. I think a milder turn is odds on though into the weekend, as WolfeEire said without something to hold the Greenland High in place over Greenland we are on borrowed time. The systems keep coming and inevitably the Iberian High wants to get a look in!

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313296#Comment_120313296

You say that yet the Atlantic will almost certainly break through next weekend on latest guidance anyway. But as you say as long as there’s no conveyor belt then the Atlantic might go back to sleep soon.

What baffles me is the Greenland High moving to Canada and not staying where it is after the two recent SSW’s 🤔 why does the PV appear to be moving back to its usual place after the recent SSW. Doesn’t the PV usually weaken in March? It’s all a bit mad Ted.

JanuarySnowstor

The ecm brings deeper cold in on Wednesday with minus 8s or lower across the country. With a Southeasterly wind it should be enough to kick off showers across the South Coast. I think I would favour getting in the proper cold over the marginal low being further North. Let's see where the rest of run goes

WolfeEire

Ecm follows all other main models in 12z. Two day cold snap. The Greenland high disappears like it's leaving the scene of a crime. Heights building from the south 👎👎👎 Looking like North America in for a big freeze.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314120#Comment_120314120

Ah well! It was fun while it lasted! It can stay dry now! No fecking cold rain!

nacho libre

That ECM run a few days ago showing things going wrong now looks to have been onto something. To add insult to injury, we can't even get a decent all snow frontal event out of it.

It's not the despair, Laura.

I can take the Despair

It's the hope I can't stand. I feel like that now. I am ready to pack it in, unless I see a stonking high smack in the centre of Greenland by mid month. Some people never learn. Hah.