Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

emo72

Are we officially nowcasting?

nacho libre

It's a great pity this was not happening a month ago, it could have been a 1947 type scenario with Atlantic systems coming in and readily turning to snow across most of the country . We would not have to worry about melting snow either

I have a feeling this could work out similar to March 2013, Northern Ireland gets a proper dumping while the rest of us get a wintry mix before it turns to rain. I hope I am wrong!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320690#Comment_120320690

Probably. In terms of overnight, a lot of Munster should see some flakes, all of the high res models showing this. Likely to be rain to snow so it might only be the last hour that is sleet/snow and then you need luck for there to be enough pep in the convection still for anything notable to accumulate. In Cork city I'd be thinking flakes on cars and grass by rush hour but unlikely to be much better. We live in hope though...

.Donegal.

Tonight, rain over the southern half of the country will continue turning to sleet or snow in places for a time later and mostly clearing southwards by Tuesday morning. Clear spells will follow and it will become very cold with lowest temperatures of 0 and -4 degrees with a widespread sharp frost and some icy stretches. A few wintry showers will develop on north facing coasts.

Macy0161

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320690#Comment_120320690

iirc March 2013 it wasn't just "rain" - serious flooding around South Dublin/ North Wicklow?

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321329#Comment_120321329

On the 21st I recorded 18mm and on the 22nd 67.2mm which is the second highest daily total I've recorded in the 10 years here (Loughlinstown, south Dublin). I've no doubt there would have been flooding around, particularly in communities higher up, there probably was some around places near here. March 2013 was was sixth wettest month I've recorded.

nacho libre

The current GFS run is the scenario I feared for Thursday and Friday. The UKMO is a poor run too. I am not disappointed as I was sort of expecting this. At least some places will see a bit of snow overnight into Tuesday , but if it's a decent all snow frontal event you are after some of the afternoon runs are poor, unless you live in Northern Ireland, Northern England and Scotland!

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321329#Comment_120321329

Indeed there was flooding in at least Cork, Meath, Wicklow and Dublin. Funnily enough I did a historical post on March 2013 here a few hours prior!

Haven't been active here because frankly I have zero interest and it's all too messy for my liking.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321694#Comment_120321694

JMA and GEM a little better. A two day cold spell following two SSW events would be a disappointment (for me).

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321728#Comment_120321728

Yes, hopefully the ECM might show something like this. As you say we have waited weeks for the SSW to deliver something meaningful, if the UKMO and GFS are right it amounts to a hill of beans. It seems to have been the story of this winter and is now following on into spring. We will probably get a direct hit at the end of March when it's all too late.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321694#Comment_120321694

Unfortunately this won't deliver much for us other than flakes falling onto wet ground then transitioning quickly back to rain. If it's proper lying snow this will be mainly a UK event as always with Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England in for some fun and games. If this had happened a few weeks ago we would have been in a much better position. It's just too late and the air doesn't stay cold long enough.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321826#Comment_120321826

Yes. A repeat of 22 March 2013 is looking likely late next week. The problem is the Greenland High seemingly lets us down once again.

The Atlantic systems phase with the TPV and as a result we never never get the direct hit that was initially suggested a few days ago and the incoming Low on Thursday is not forced to disrupt, hence we likely end up with a washout and milder turn.

Niall145

Thursday morning looking good for Dublin on the latest ECM (other models are also showing this band of snow)

squarecircles

12Z ECM, heavy snow across the middle of the country, moving northwards. Galway to Dublin and north of it doing well...and from a purely IMBY perspective - west Mayo getting ploughed on this run.

Kermit.de.frog

Potential for some disruption Thursday morning. This is going down to the wire. As the cold wraps back round Thursday night could be interesting too

Beechwoodspark

No where near cold enough in Kildare at moment for snow. It’s about 10 degrees.

On the off chance Any snow that did fall would instantly melt.

squarecircles

another dumping friday night ...

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322055#Comment_120322055

You must have an outside heater switched on near your thermometer that's reading 10° as county Kildare is averaging about 5° at the moment. Near 4° at my location in Meath.

castletownman

Anyone know if rural Gorey will get anything? My phone says to expect a mix of rain and snow showers but not to drop below 1C.

WolfeEire

The Ecm is far less progressive with the breakdown on Thursday when compared to the 12z GEM and GFS.

Ulster and north Connacht stay cold through to Saturday morning.

After an initial push of milder air up to the northern third of the island on Thursday, the cold air pushes back right down to the south coast during Friday. A snow to rain to snow situation for the middle third of Ireland, while the northern third stays cold with snow up to Saturday morn when the cold retreats northeast.

All very messy, but the potential for significant snow remains for some parts of the island. If ECM holds track then a red warning may be warranted for the northwest and Ulster.

squarecircles

if we could even get a tiny percentage of that snow depth it would be amazing.

Ragwort and Stones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322055#Comment_120322055

10c?? I think your thermometer is on the blink. All the stations around you are 4-5c at 6pm.

Ragwort and Stones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322094#Comment_120322094

What's your height asl? Are you far from the sea? Too early to say where the cold/milder boundary will be and the precipitation type.

At present the Northern half of the country is favoured.

DellyBelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322094#Comment_120322094

Think you should be okay...think you'll avoid any snow. More an event for the Northern half of the country.

nacho libre

I can't take this anymore. I am going back to the most reliable model there is: my window on Thursday morning.

But seriously what a strange run, West Mayo gets a right dumping. I dare say if this was a month go there would be no transition back to rain for any of us. Also we would likely have epic accumulations as a consequence.

Ragwort and Stones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322282#Comment_120322282

40-50 miles will make such a difference. It's really heading into nowcast territory. Whatever will happen will happen. Some will be pleasantly surprised, others disappointed. Those on high ground north of Dublin/Galway are probably guaranteed snow. It can move southwards easily enough too.

Surprises can really happen too. It's a bit of excitement 😊

Leg End Reject

Where's @Kermit.de.frog?

Supercell

The uppers are not great, for here in coastal Dublin i'm expecting rain with some wet flakes in there if the charts are accurate.

kittyn

Oh god the dates I don’t want snow 🙈 I’ve a wedding in Leitrim on the 10th travelling up Thursday night could be fun 🤣🤣

Ragwort and Stones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322398#Comment_120322398

Safe travelling and keep listening to updates. Hopefully roads will be clear.