Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

Backstreet Moyes · 03-07-2021 12:34PM

gozunda wrote: »

Except we know that no two countries in Europe have the same restrictions or have handled the pandemic in the same way. Yeah we don't have indoor dining and Spain insisted everyone wear masks absolutely everywhere and Norway closed its borders or whatever

What we do have the experts in the
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control now stating that EU countries are facing a wave of new infection and lifting restrictions atm might not just be a good idea and whether we like it or not pretty much what those bad boys in Nphet are saying.

Or we could play - oh look everyone is doing X - let's do that as well - why? - no reason just because!

We are the most restricted country in Europe and we are one or the worst performing countries in Europe.

So yes maybe we should look elsewhere and say let's do that aswell because they are open more and performing better than us.

I don't think keeping everything closed because of what might happen is a particularly good strategy, firstly the vast majority don't listen anymore and secondly the money will run out eventually.

Let's destroy the economy and the future of the country and drive up hospital waiting lists that will kill more people because we might get a 4th wave that no other country seems to be getting.

MOR316 · 03-07-2021 12:36PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I am happier with the Irish approach to it

Good for you.

Let's see if you still hold that opinion when the budget is announced

Backstreet Moyes · 03-07-2021 12:40PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Bizarre how NPHET can still be defended despite being the one outlier in the entirety of Europe.
Mental, to be blunt.

Are they being defended much anymore though I mean I don't think so.

Anybody who I have talked to are disgusted and don't follow the rules anymore and are socialising in houses.

I am not on twitter but from what friends have said they are not popular.

The large number of people who constantly defended Nphet have disappeared since last week, the only two are left is someone who i believe will never go back to normal after this is over because its like someone in a cult.

At least that person believes what they post and the other is someone who probably has nothing to do so is spending time trying to get reactions from other posters, not sure why people bother responding.

Deeper Blue · 03-07-2021 12:42PM

It's amazing how some will always defend the indefensible.

It'll be interesting to see how opinions change when the next budget comes around.

lawred2 · 03-07-2021 01:04PM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

It's amazing how some will always defend the indefensible.

It'll be interesting to see how opinions change when the next budget comes around.

Sure we took emergency budgets without complaint to pay for the state's failure to regulate its banking system.

We're still paying USC and property tax because of it. And will forever more.

We'll just roll over and take whatever comes next.

We're the victims of domestic abuse.

Degag · 03-07-2021 01:05PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Looking at what they are at, I am happier with the Irish approach to it

Would have to agree with this. The overall British approach to the pandemic was a shambles. It's been coloured over by what seems like a very good vaccine rollout but even that was pretty unethical and immoral when it came to actual vaccine procurement. They also took a chance at the time with regards the timings between doses, if i remember correctly, that to be fair seems to have worked out fairly well.

Beechwoodspark · 03-07-2021 01:16PM

Degag wrote: »

Would have to agree with this. The overall British approach to the pandemic was a shambles. It's been coloured over by what seems like a very good vaccine rollout but even that was pretty unethical and immoral when it came to actual vaccine procurement. They also took a chance at the time with regards the timings between doses, if i remember correctly, that to be fair seems to have worked out fairly well.

And also, they keep announcing “full reopening” by x date then backtrack shambolically

TheDoctor · 03-07-2021 01:21PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

And also, they keep announcing “full reopening” by x date then backtrack shambolically

Its been actually the opposite on the reopening.

All levels were given with an earliest possible date.

_Kaiser_ · 03-07-2021 01:21PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

And also, they keep announcing “full reopening” by x date then backtrack shambolically

As opposed to our lot who keep promising various businesses a plan and dates to work from then backtrack at the last minute, or who issue so many conflicting soundbites and articles through the media in the guise of "kite flying", or politicians trying to calm the doom-saying from NPHET, that no-one know WHAT is going on?

Yep, our lot are so much better! :rolleyes:

lawred2 · 03-07-2021 01:23PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

And also, they keep announcing “full reopening” by x date then backtrack shambolically

I don't think you're remotely aware of how far behind the UK we are in terms of restrictions.

Degag · 03-07-2021 01:25PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As opposed to our lot who keep promising various businesses a plan and dates to work from then backtrack at the last minute, or who issue so many conflicting soundbites and articles through the media in the guise of "kite flying", or politicians trying to calm the doom-saying from NPHET, that no-one know WHAT is going on?

Yep, our lot are so much better! :rolleyes:

Yeah the communication side of things wouldn't be something i'd be bleating the Irish trumpet on so much either

bucketybuck · 03-07-2021 01:25PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

then backtrack shambolically

Do you know what "backtrack" means?

prunudo · 03-07-2021 01:30PM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

It's amazing how some will always defend the indefensible.

It'll be interesting to see how opinions change when the next budget comes around.

I honestly don't think anything will make some change their opinion. They blindly believe everything they're told without question or ability to be critical. They are either highly insulated from the effects of the pandemic or have a finger in the pie and are benefiting from neverending restrictions.

03-07-2021 01:35PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

On balance I’m happy we have NPHET there

You've lost all credibility now.

You have roundly dismissed the equivalent of NPHET in every other European country - their science and approach.

But somehow you are a person of science and following "expert advice".

Now unless you believe that the 26 other European equivalents of NPHET are wrong, I think you should supply evidence to support your conclusion.

Until then, you are neither following the science nor expert advice.

Blindly following NPHET and zealous proclamations from Tony Holohan, speaking ex catedra, is more akin to a religious cult.

gozunda · 03-07-2021 01:43PM

Ballynally wrote: »

EU health organisations overall are prone to advocate caution and advise governments to use restrictions in order to surpress ..... fill in the blanks here.
It is still up to governments to make decisions about their country.

Sorry, no relevance to your post but to the initial poster your post was commenting on.
Gozunda has been on my ignore list for a while now

Well thanks for the call out Ballynally. But completly incorrect. What was posted is simply the current stance of the ECDC. Infer thats its all a big a conspiracy to "suppress... fill in the blanks" if you wish . Thats you're perogative of course.

I'm sorry you don't like the facts. But I can't help with that.

gozunda · 03-07-2021 01:55PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Nphet are not experts on data modelling.

True dat. But this lot are ...

https://www.ucd.ie/research/covid19response/news/irishepidemiologicalmodellingadvisorygrouptonphet/

Degag · 03-07-2021 01:55PM

prunudo wrote: »

I honestly don't think anything will make some change their opinion. They blindly believe everything they're told without question or ability to be critical. They are either highly insulated from the effects of the pandemic or have a finger in the pie and are benefiting from neverending restrictions.

And to be fair, that also goes the other way. There are those who are going to be ultra-critical regardless of reason. Balance is the key, which admittedly is difficult seeing as the pandemic has affected so many so negatively.

Bsharp · 03-07-2021 02:04PM

gozunda wrote: »

True dat. But this lot are ...

https://www.ucd.ie/research/covid19response/news/irishepidemiologicalmodellingadvisorygrouptonphet/

"Thus, the precision of pandemic modelling lies somewhere between weather prediction (good) and economic forecasting (poor)". We're basing policy decisions on the extremity result of this; the worst case prediction. The modellers themselves know it's not accurate.

Beechwoodspark · 03-07-2021 02:11PM

prunudo wrote: »

I honestly don't think anything will make some change their opinion. They blindly believe everything they're told without question or ability to be critical. They are either highly insulated from the effects of the pandemic or have a finger in the pie and are benefiting from neverending restrictions.

I certainly don’t have “blind faith” in NPHET

I accept it for what it is. Qualified experts giving advice to Govt.

I don’t think they are infallible (nobody is) or thst we should blindly accept their recommendations.

However I prefer that we have NPHET there to provide input into govt decisions

I am not in a position to “critique” NPHET recommendations - I have no professional qualifications whatsoever in pandemic /public health.

I’d be modest enough to accept my limits on that score.

Some of yee on this really do seem to be “armchair experts” though, and are not behind the door in running down the actual NPHET experts ....

I suppose at the end of the day everyone has their own opinion and it is up to our political leaders to weigh and assess which advice and recommendations to take heed of

gozunda · 03-07-2021 02:20PM

Nuts102 wrote: »

We are the most restricted country in Europe and we are one or the worst performing countries in Europe.

Except we're not. So that's incorrect. On the Stringency index both Germany and Portugal have higher levels of restrictions than Ireland. Plenty of other countries have restrictions we don't have and vice versa. And yes we've rolled back quite a lot of restrictions to date.

But maybe you'd be surprised to learn no we're not the "worst performing countries in Europe" at all. If fact we're not doing to badly overall in relation to the pandemic.

https://i.imgflip.com/5fcaiy.jpg

Nuts102 wrote: »

So yes maybe we should look elsewhere and say let's do that aswell because they are open more and performing better than us.I don't think keeping everything closed because of what might happen is a particularly good strategy, firstly the vast majority don't listen anymore and secondly the money will run out eventually.Let's destroy the economy and the future of the country and drive up hospital waiting lists that will kill more people because we might get a 4th wave that no other country seems to be getting.

If you check my comment to which you replied - it is mainly a statement of fact with regard to the position of the ECDC ie other experts on the current delta variant and the risks posed.

But no I don't advocate "destroying the economy..." etc etc

MOR316 · 03-07-2021 02:26PM

Walked past the GPO earlier on, on my way to the iLac centre.

Saw the protest/gathering, whatever you wish to call it. Seemed peaceful and respectful in terms of hassle anyways.

Then again, I only saw about 10 seconds of it or so. Could have turned into a war zone after I turned the corner

Allinall · 03-07-2021 02:30PM

MOR316 wrote: »

Walked past the GPO earlier on, on my way to the iLac centre.

Saw the protest/gathering, whatever you wish to call it. Seemed peaceful and respectful in terms of hassle anyways.

Then again, I only saw about 10 seconds of it or so. Could have turned into a war zone after I turned the corner

Cabinet and NPHET are holding an emergency meeting tonight as a result of the protest.

Expect all restrictions to be abandoned first thing Monday morning.

MOR316 · 03-07-2021 02:33PM

Allinall wrote: »

Cabinet and NPHET are holding an emergency meeting tonight as a result of the protest.

Expect all restrictions to be abandoned first thing Monday morning.

And to be replaced by newer, harsher restrictions!!

Tony has devised a plan to use a guillotine for anyone who disobeys them.
Philip "Scotch Egg" Nolan is working hard on the modelling
Micheál "The Gimp" Martin is still sleeping.

Eamon Ryan is wondering why his artificial plants aren't growing

Penfailed · 03-07-2021 02:34PM

melekalikimaka wrote: »

alot of people here seem to know more than professionals... worrying times

Are all the professionals in the rest of Europe wrong...but our lads are right?

MOR316 · 03-07-2021 02:35PM

Allinall wrote: »

Cabinet and NPHET are holding an emergency meeting tonight as a result of the protest.

Expect all restrictions to be abandoned first thing Monday morning.

Ha to be serious though, I get it. I'm badly affected by this latest ****show, to the point where I'm going to have to decide if I have to leave the country. I don't protest or attend such events but, I totally understand people's anger and emotions with this.

As long as people aren't causing harm to others, I'm cool with it

namloc1980 · 03-07-2021 02:38PM

Just watching the F1 qualifying in Austria. Huge crowd at it. Outdoors of course.

gozunda · 03-07-2021 02:40PM

Bsharp wrote: »

"Thus, the precision of pandemic modelling lies somewhere between weather prediction (good) and economic forecasting (poor)". We're basing policy decisions on the extremity result of this; the worst case prediction. The modellers themselves know it's not accurate.

Well no five models were produced from worst case to benign - which indicated a rise in the rate of infection over the next couple of months.

And yes its called modelling not "divining the future" for good reason

Of course context of course is always useful

Numerous Parameters

Professor Lynch continued:"The results depend sensitively on these parameters. A subcommittee of IEMAG was established to examine the numerous parameters and to determine the most probable values under varying conditions.

"To allow for uncertainty, the model is run for a range of parameter values, giving a probable distribution of predicted values. This is reminiscent of ensemble prediction for weather forecasting. However, people are more fickle than parcels of air: while human behaviour does not much influence the weather, it has major consequences for the evolution of an infectious outbreak. Thus, the precision of pandemic modelling lies somewhere between weather prediction (good) and economic forecasting (poor).

"As a result of interventions, there has been a very significant suppression of Covid-19 spread in Ireland. The figure, using data up to May 16th, clearly shows the impact of interventions on the reproduction number. There were marked drops on March 13th to 14th, when schools and universities closed, and March 28th, when the major lockdown started. The reproduction rate of the virus, the R-number, has remained below 1 since then.

"The number of deaths per day has been greatly reduced following mitigating steps. However, if measures are relaxed too soon, an R-number above 1 could cause a dangerous peak in infections. If it were allowed to go above 2, the much more extreme consequences would be difficult to cope with...

MOR316 · 03-07-2021 02:45PM

All this talk of models and not a sign of FHM magazines anywhere

Philip Nolan should be sacked for that alone

The HorsesMouth · 03-07-2021 02:52PM

What's the story with play centres and the like? Surely they are opening Monday 5th no?

km79 · 03-07-2021 02:53PM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

What's the story with play centres and the like? Surely they are opening Monday 5th no?

No is correct

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings