Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

kwestfan08

gozunda wrote: »

Well no not quite. The ECDC report details those most at risk include people who have not been vaccinated but also those who have only received the first dose of a two-dose vaccination
course and are less well protected against infection with the Delta variant*. It remains we have a substantial proportion of individuals who have as if yet have only received one dose.

*And that is simply a statement from the ECDC who also state that the lifting of non pharmaceutical interventions would lead to a further rise is infections.

I presume you do know that deaths from covid are not the sole metric which are relevant here yes?

No I understand completely. As you say those with one shot of vaccine are those who are MOST at risk. But what exactly is that risk? If I have one dose of vaccine what are the chances I contract covid? And further then what are the chances that Covid kills me. 1,000/1? 5,000/1? 10,000/1?

While the risk is certainly higher if you only have one shot, the actual real world chances of anything remotely bad happening to you are very low and it seems we’re keep everything indoors closed on the fear that something MIGHT happen.

JRant

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

How do we feel about restrictions beyond July, like weddings due to go to 100 from August? The Government haven't really given any certainty in the last couple of weeks or so if they intend on relaxing those restrictions further.

At best we'll be stuck at our current level of restrictions for July and August. I wouldn't be planning anything that involved further relaxation of restrictions for the next few months.

We may even take a step or two backwards and start to severely limit weddings, funerals, events etc and possibly outdoor dining by mid August.

Once case numbers increase they'll start increasing restrictions regardless of whether hospitalisations increase here or if we have solid data from the UK and EU to say otherwise.

gozunda

kwestfan08 wrote: »

No I understand completely. As you say those with one shot of vaccine are those who are MOST at risk. But what exactly is that risk? If I have one dose of vaccine what are the chances I contract covid? And further then what are the chances that Covid kills me. 1,000/1? 5,000/1? 10,000/1?

While the risk is certainly higher if you only have one shot, the actual real world chances of anything remotely bad happening to you are very low and it seems we’re keep everything indoors closed on the fear that something MIGHT happen.

Take a read of the full report. More detail there. Can't link atm but you'll find it further back . But no its not linked to "anything remotely bad happening to you" and "keeping indoors" because "something might happen" or wtte

emo72

Modeling, or predicting the future, or predicting the weather, or horoscopes.

They presented 4 outcomes? They should have presented 10 outcomes. One of them may have been close.

landofthetree

JRant wrote: »

At best we'll be stuck at our current level of restrictions for July and August. I wouldn't be planning anything that involved further relaxation of restrictions for the next few months.

We may even take a step or two backwards and start to severely limit weddings, funerals, events etc and possibly outdoor dining by mid August.

Once case numbers increase they'll start increasing restrictions regardless of whether hospitalisations increase here or if we have solid data from the UK and EU to say otherwise.

We have had 10,000+ cases in the last 4 weeks.

Only 42 are in hospital after all those cases.

When you have all your over 40s vaccinated you stop 90% of hospitalizations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110045/coronavirus-covid-19-hospitalizations-number-age-group-switzerland/

Shelga

Why are the latest case numbers splashed up as a headline on RTÉ news? Plus “14 IN ICU”- it’s like they’re willing that number to go up.

Other countries are moving on. Still headline news all day, every day for us, because of NPHET scaremongering. So sick of this sh*t.

lawred2

Shelga wrote: »

Why are the latest case numbers splashed up as a headline on RTÉ news? Plus “14 IN ICU”- it’s like they’re willing that number to go up.

Other countries are moving on. Still headline news all day, every day for us, because of NPHET scaremongering. So sick of this sh*t.

I think covid has been good for RTE's bottom line. That's a big problem.

ACitizenErased

In case there was still any doubt over whether the vaccines work...
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1411376694133506048?s=20

Penfailed

CruelSummer wrote: »

Ok fair enough. Just after double checking - all pubs are open in NI for indoor and outdoor & can remain open now until 3am.

You should triple check. All pubs in the north can't remain open now until 3am.

normanoffside

The 2nd trial concert is neatly worse than Iveagh Gardens. Now there's testing but still pods and distancing.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1411374790481428487

JRant

landofthetree wrote: »

We have had 10,000+ cases in the last 4 weeks.

Only 42 are in hospital after all those cases.

When you have all your over 40s vaccinated you stop 90% of hospitalizations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110045/coronavirus-covid-19-hospitalizations-number-age-group-switzerland/

You're preaching to the choir.

NPHET are acting like one vaccine gives no protection and we need to have every man, woman, and child vaccinated before we can come out of this.

CruelSummer

Penfailed wrote: »

You should triple check. All pubs in the north can't remain open now until 3am.

Thanks that was already pointed out to me. I posted up the links from rte & bbc - it is Oct it comes in re late hours.
Pubs & indoor dining is open right now in the north - no vaccine passport, just open to all.

hynesie08

CruelSummer wrote: »

Thanks that was already pointed out to me. I posted up the links from rte & bbc - it is Oct it comes in re late hours.
Pubs & indoor dining is open right now in the north - no vaccine passport, just open to all.

Still won't be 3am serving.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In case there was still any doubt over whether the vaccines work...
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1411376694133506048?s=20

This very time last year when deaths were low we were told it was because lockdowns and social distancing work, remember people on this very fourm this time last year saying "we are beating this virus"

lawred2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In case there was still any doubt over whether the vaccines work...
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1411376694133506048?s=20

But there's a hurricane coming

ErnieG

emo72 wrote: »

Modeling, or predicting the future, or predicting the weather, or horoscopes.

They presented 4 outcomes? They should have presented 10 outcomes. One of them may have been close.

It is outrageous that the government, this week, decided to change its strategy on restrictions from (let's call it) "the old plan" to "the new plan" using model data only for "the old plan".

NPHET recommended moving to the new plan, presenting model data for the old plan as their justification.

The government needed to tell them "we're open to your recommendation, but you haven't adequately justified it yet. So that we can make an informed decision, you must give us modelling for the new plan."

It should have been obvious to government that there were two major issues

• weighing up competing options requires full information about each option
• NPHET's approach, on the face of it, was contrived to avoid putting their credibility on the line. Once their recommendation was adopted, none of their modelling could ever be tested by subsequent real-world events. This was a red flag - why make multi-billion euro decisions affecting hundreds of thousands of livelihoods based on models, if the authors of those models are contriving that the models not be tested in the real world?

I am basing my thoughts here on the rte article:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

Which includes the comments:
"All the numbers presented are modelled based on the assumption there will be a "step change" in social mixing on 5 July"

"Prof Nolan ...told Prime Time that "the whole point of running the scenarios is to prevent them, by making the right decisions.""

In the middle of the article, Prof Nolan does make a claim that he modelled outcomes for the "new plan", and waffles about them. "it’s modest," he said. "Frankly, it is anywhere between Alpha-only and the optimistic scenario."

So for the old plan the government was presented with 4 outcomes .

For the new plan, they were provided with no data. When asked about this in a presser, Prof Nolan wriggled his way past the question without putting anything really testable on the table.

The government is making some of the biggest decisions in the history of the state using badly-structured decision-making. Snap decisions. It's madness.

CruelSummer

hynesie08 wrote: »

Still won't be 3am serving.

No but punters will be allow stay on the premises drinking until 3am as I already stated also.

hynesie08

CruelSummer wrote: »

No but punters will be allow stay on the premises drinking until 3am as I already stated also.

So, exactly where we were for 20 years pre covid....

finalfurlong

normanoffside wrote: »

The 2nd trial concert is neatly worse than Iveagh Gardens. Now there's testing but still pods and distancing.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1411374790481428487

I dont know about anyone else but the amount of steel sheep like pen s is a bad look.If it is a trial is it really a long term or medium term veiw to have this level of segregation.One of the great things about festivals were meeting random fans from far and near-this photo is depressing from that veiwpoint.The trialled concerts in London and Liverpool were essentially scaled back numbers wise but I am certain I did not see steel enclosures

bucketybuck

If anything sums up how utterly useless this government is, it is those "test" events. They are embarrassing, the sort of thing you would associate with some third world tinpot dictatorship.

A test that doesn't reflect real world conditions isn't worth a **** and a child could tell you that. And that is quite apart from the fact that they are actually redundant at this stage, when there have been far bigger events already hosted across Europe for which there is any amount of data gathered.

These are the people making decisions for this country, god help us all.

lawred2

bucketybuck wrote: »

If anything sums up how utterly useless this government is, it is those "test" events. They are embarrassing, the sort of thing you would associate with some third world tinpot dictatorship.

A test that doesn't reflect real world conditions isn't worth a **** and a child could tell you that. And that is quite apart from the fact that they are actually redundant at this stage, when there have been far bigger events already hosted across Europe for which there is any amount of data gathered.

These are the people making decisions for this country, god help us all.

It's the usual "doing something to be seen to be doing something" bolloxology that we're great at. These sheep pen trials aren't worth a ha'penny f*ck. The last one didn't even allow people have a few drinks. There's nothing real world about them.

bloopy

finalfurlong wrote: »

I dont know about anyone else but the amount of steel sheep like pen s is a bad look.If it is a trial is it really a long term or medium term veiw to have this level of segregation.One of the great things about festivals were meeting random fans from far and near-this photo is depressing from that veiwpoint.The trialled concerts in London and Liverpool were essentially scaled back numbers wise but I am certain I did not see steel enclosures

A concert like the one showed in that report cannot become the norm. It is just too expensive. Increase cost for the pens with less attendance. The only purpose it can serve is as a feel good news report.
Nothing more

normanoffside

finalfurlong wrote: »

I dont know about anyone else but the amount of steel sheep like pen s is a bad look

yes, look how they are all penned in

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1411357496242065420

AlekSmart

normanoffside wrote: »

The 2nd trial concert is neatly worse than Iveagh Gardens. Now there's testing but still pods and distancing.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1411374790481428487

FFS,we really need a shot of enjoyment at the moment,the already melancohlic Irish phsyche will disappear into a Black Hole if somebody does'nt get a grip soon.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFHC6t13hi0

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

yes, look how they are all penned in

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1411357496242065420

Embarrassing.

Shepherded into their pens like a drove of pigs.

CruelSummer

hynesie08 wrote: »

So, exactly where we were for 20 years pre covid....

We as in Ireland? Where we’re heading for a vaccine passport and indoor dining / drinking closed and no exit strategy from NPHET?
In fact the precedent they’ve set in the last week is that there will be NO exit strategy, even those fully vaccinated over 70’s are considered still at risk despite the vaccinations being incredibly effective.
Or we as in NI where their CMO & public health England have currently both indoor dining/drinking & an exit strategy.

Stadium in Rome in the TV - capacity 18,000 tonight. How many were in Croker today.

AlekSmart

eskimohunt wrote: »

Embarrassing.

Shepherded into their pens like a drove of pigs.

Yet,this New Normality is supposed to be something to rejoice about.....I would be interested in looking inside the head of whomever came up with this idea,as it must be a bleak space indeed ?

eskimohunt

eskimohunt wrote: »

Embarrassing.

Shepherded into their pens like a drove of pigs.

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

prunudo

I really despair for the future of this country. Bad enough that this is being called a test event, even worse that some of the interviewees think this is a return to normality. At least Gavin James was saying he couldn't wait till people can actually mingle again.

AlekSmart

AlekSmart wrote: »

Yet,this New Normality is supposed to be something to rejoice about.....I would be interested in looking inside the head of whomever came up with this idea,as it must be a bleak space indeed ?

Who could forget this gem? It sickens my sh1t to hear that Luke O'Neill so lionised. He's enjoyed every bit of this pandemic and his wealth and profile has significantly increased

https://www.rte.ie/news/claire-byrne-live/2021/0210/1196251-could-zorbs-be-a-safe-way-to-enjoy-a-live-gig/