Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

prunudo

prunudo wrote: »

I really despair for the future of this country. Bad enough that this is being called a test event, even worse that some of the interviewees think this is a return to normality. At least Gavin James was saying he couldn't wait till people can actually mingle again.

The problem is when you treat a country like a controlled experiment.

You cannot control all variables, there are too many. So, when NPHET propose restrictions - they don't consider the consequences of those restrictions. NPHET are obsessing too much with numbers, variables, modelling, predictions etc., and are completely ignoring real world data.

As a result, we are the laughing stock in Europe because we are assumed to be controlled like guinea pigs, when in fact we are no different to other Europeans who actually seem to be managing just fine with hospitality re-opened.

I just wish the Government opened their eyes and saw what everyone else can see.

prunudo

prunudo wrote: »

I really despair for the future of this country. Bad enough that this is being called a test event, even worse that some of the interviewees think this is a return to normality. At least Gavin James was saying he couldn't wait till people can actually mingle again.

When we didn't rip the country apart after the banks bailout, it was always going to be easy to convince us to do this. Most gullible bunch of pathetic wasters that ever was. I wouldn't believe any Irish politician if they told me it was Saturday, but some follow their words religiously :rolleyes:

AlekSmart

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

Start small and move on carefully.....but quality will always come to the top... https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3241900085839774

hynesie08

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/frank-turner-lighthouse-family-among-18818128.amp


And before that they had this...... Timing is different but the actual events are the same.....

JRant

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

The most worrying thing about that video is the fact so many mouth breathers felt the need to ring the police to inform on those they thought were breaking social distancing rules. That's the real problem.

Klonker

ErnieG wrote: »

It is outrageous that the government, this week, decided to change its strategy on restrictions from (let's call it) "the old plan" to "the new plan" using model data only for "the old plan".

NPHET recommended moving to the new plan, presenting model data for the old plan as their justification.

The government needed to tell them "we're open to your recommendation, but you haven't adequately justified it yet. So that we can make an informed decision, you must give us modelling for the new plan."

It should have been obvious to government that there were two major issues

• weighing up competing options requires full information about each option
• NPHET's approach, on the face of it, was contrived to avoid putting their credibility on the line. Once their recommendation was adopted, none of their modelling could ever be tested by subsequent real-world events. This was a red flag - why make multi-billion euro decisions affecting hundreds of thousands of livelihoods based on models, if the authors of those models are contriving that the models not be tested in the real world?

I am basing my thoughts here on the rte article:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

Which includes the comments:
"All the numbers presented are modelled based on the assumption there will be a "step change" in social mixing on 5 July"

"Prof Nolan ...told Prime Time that "the whole point of running the scenarios is to prevent them, by making the right decisions.""

In the middle of the article, Prof Nolan does make a claim that he modelled outcomes for the "new plan", and waffles about them. "it’s modest," he said. "Frankly, it is anywhere between Alpha-only and the optimistic scenario."

So for the old plan the government was presented with 4 outcomes .

For the new plan, they were provided with no data. When asked about this in a presser, Prof Nolan wriggled his way past the question without putting anything really testable on the table.

The government is making some of the biggest decisions in the history of the state using badly-structured decision-making. Snap decisions. It's madness.

How these models haven't come under more scrutiny from the media is a disgrace. As you say no model for if we don't open indoor hospitality.

How people can still claim NPHET don't have an agenda is crazy. They only put forward the modelling scenarios that they think will support the decision they wanted on the first place. Please god the government will realise by 19th July how insane the projections were when the UK will still be going steady at that stage.

Klonker

Klonker wrote: »

How these models haven't come under more scrutiny from the media is a disgrace. As you say no model for if we don't open indoor hospitality.

How people can still claim NPHET don't have an agenda is crazy. They only put forward the modelling scenarios that they think will support the decision they wanted on the first place. Please god the government will realise by 19th July how insane the projections were when the UK will still be going steady at that stage.

Not a chance the penny will ever drop for them. There was hope this week when Donnelly appeared to sideline NPHET, but i would doubt anything will come of it. He'll go back tail between legs apologising to Tony eventually

ACitizenErased

You actually couldn't pay me enough to go to a 'penned in' concert. I wouldn't bother wasting my time.

Penfailed

I'm two days...and about thirty pages behind on this thread! Playing catch up.

DellyBelly wrote: »

Listening to Claire Byrne at the moment and I have to say the Delta virus sounds frightening...you have to be worried what is going to happen over here. Next couple of weeks will be telling to see if this new variant rips through the country...I really thought we had turned a corner...depressing stuff

Correct me if I'm wrong...are you the same poster that lives 7km from the beach and really missed going for walks on the beach...but wouldn't do so until the 5km restriction was lifted?

_Kaiser_

JRant wrote: »

The most worrying thing about that video is the fact so many mouth breathers felt the need to ring the police to inform on those they thought were breaking social distancing rules. That's the real problem.

The other thing there was some of the attendees of that event saying that they felt anxious being around so many people (why did you go then?), and that they felt as though people should be wearing masks

That to me is indicative of the level of fear and damage done to society in the last year - and even more worrying considering the demographic involved were/are always at little to no risk from Covid anyway.

CalamariFritti

0lddog wrote: »

Hang on a minute yourself !

Does anyone believe https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-kingdom-falls ? ( random website returned by search engine )

If it can be believed then it appears that the figure of 117 deaths ( per week ) is running at the same level as the 2018 average number of deaths per week due to falling in UK.

Please, when can we all get over this and get back to life ?

Its not per week. Its in total since the 1st of February when they started monitoring delta.

No Im not kiddin.

JRant

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The other thing there was some of the attendees of that event saying that they felt anxious being around so many people (why did you go then?), and that they felt as though people should be wearing masks

That to me is indicative of the level of fear and damage done to society in the last year - and even more worrying considering the demographic involved were/are always at little to no risk from Covid anyway.

There's an element of playing to camera in some of those responses. Us, I'd imagine a few told the reporters that they didn't give a shïtê but RTE are never going to show those types of responses.

normanoffside

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

That was on the 30th April- over 2 months ago.

hynesie08

normanoffside wrote: »

That was on the 30th April- over 3 months ago.

8 and a bit weeks is not over 3 months by any recognized measure.....

normanoffside

hynesie08 wrote: »

8 and a bit weeks is not over 3 months by any recognized measure.....

Sorry, got my maths wrong over 2 months then. Point doesn't change.

prunudo

hynesie08 wrote: »

8 and a bit weeks is not over 3 months by any recognized measure.....

Lets be honest, it doesn't really matter, the fact is, they felt they could allow a test event with no masks and no social distancing. Yet here we are, with over 1/2 the population vaccinated, 3/5 of who are fully vaccinated and we playing covid theatre with nonsensical test events and indoor hospitality not even on the cards yet.

Fils

prunudo wrote: »

Lets be honest, it doesn't really matter, the fact is, they felt they could allow a test event with no masks and no social distancing. Yet here we are, with over 1/2 the population vaccinated, 3/5 of who are fully vaccinated and we playing covid theatre with nonsensical test events and indoor hospitality not even on the cards yet.

All they are asking is to hold tough, better days are ahead.

normanoffside

Not too many hashtags on SM other than piss take one

https://twitter.com/HanrattyDave/status/1411417273013833731

ACitizenErased

Front page of Business Post tomorrow:


And Sunday Times:

prunudo

normanoffside wrote: »

Not too many hashtags on SM other than piss take one

https://twitter.com/HanrattyDave/status/1411417273013833731

So obsessed with wanting to be liked by the rest of the world they've overlooked the part where they make their own citizens happy.

Father Hernandez

normanoffside wrote: »

Not too many hashtags on SM other than piss take one

https://twitter.com/HanrattyDave/status/1411417273013833731

I looked at this and thought it was a píss take/photoshop job and now on reflection I am questioning it.

Is it real?

normanoffside

Father Hernandez wrote: »

I looked at this and thought it was a píss take/photoshop job and now on reflection I am questioning it.

Is it real?

Seems to be the same designs around the screens that Catherine Martin was tweeting earlier. I'd assume it's real

https://twitter.com/cathmartingreen/status/1411420893465743360

lawrencesummers

Talking to a few friends around the country it’s pretty clear that many places are serving indoors and not following the letter of the law to the ninth degree. Some friends in the west of country are pinting away, some places in the east are doing as they please.

namloc1980

Sheep penned in. Crowd look like they're having "fun".

.

What are we actually learning from nonsense like this? Shouldn't we be testing real world conditions or is this what is in store for us for the foreseeable future?

_Kaiser_

JRant wrote: »

There's an element of playing to camera in some of those responses. Us, I'd imagine a few told the reporters that they didn't give a shïtê but RTE are never going to show those types of responses.

This was the ITV report/video I meant. An actual proper test and yet some of the attendees still worried - as I said above, why did they go then?

I said it months ago too but the damage to people's mental health has been immense and will take years or even longer to undo in some cases.

lawred2

normanoffside wrote: »

Not too many hashtags on SM other than piss take one

https://twitter.com/HanrattyDave/status/1411417273013833731

Is that a Photoshop?

Ferris_Bueller

normanoffside wrote: »

Not too many hashtags on SM other than piss take one

https://twitter.com/HanrattyDave/status/1411417273013833731

Surely there is not a chance that this is real :pac:

_Kaiser_

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Front page of Business Post tomorrow:

The fact that that headline is pitched as the Government defying NPHET is right there the entire problem!!

The Government are the ones supposed to be in charge! The only ones they're answerable to (supposedly!) is the electorate, not a group of ass-covering incompetent HSE staffers that have squandered billions of Euro through the mismanagement of our health service each year for decades.

Spot on Robert as per usual!

https://twitter.com/robertburke84/status/1411418267181269002

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Talking to a few friends around the country it’s pretty clear that many places are serving indoors and not following the letter of the law to the ninth degree. Some friends in the west of country are pinting away, some places in the east are doing as they please.

Good.

This is what society should be about, people taking their own risks and establishments operating to their own standards.

Given the widespread vaccination campaign, with almost 50% of the population fully vaccinated -- including all the most vulnerable, there is simply no need for draconian restrictions.

Police officers that actively seek to punish these small businesses should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. If I were an officer, I'd be on the side of the man in the street and the small business and not NPHET and Michael Martin.

Enough of the 21st-century nannying state, please.