Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

bucketybuck · 01-07-2021 09:40AM

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Then why did they present such an obviously flawed model to the highest level of government?

normanoffside · 01-07-2021 09:41AM

paw patrol wrote: »

we were never in this together and the plot was lost last summer.

the state was paralyzed with fear and our leaders had absolutely no risk appetitie
imagine a leader in any sector in fear of taking risk - it wouldn't happen - they would have never achieved anything and not made leader for sure.

The country and esp the young people were sacrificed for a small cohort of panic merchants who swallowed the guff from NPHET ,the state and the paid off media.

the covid19 was an exercise in overblown hysteria.
The equivalent of the moving statues for the non secular ireland of the new century

It’s like a poker player folding 4 Aces because there is a chance the opponent has a straight flush. That kind of poker player would never win.

TheCitizen · 01-07-2021 09:46AM

paw patrol wrote: »

I kinda like posts like this as they demonstrate such ignorance.
We should listen to expert opinion but never blindly accept it because it is usually based on a single issue with no concern for secondary impacts.

you have ignored that:

Expert Opinion isn't infallible

We should have a choice to follow that advice - a cost/benefit analysis so to speak - clearly my risk assessment/appetite differs from Dr Tony

NPHET aren't the only experts. Many experts say they are wrong.

Personal freedom - we shouldn't be owned by the state.

Finally, your deference to authority is laughable - they aren't here to save you. they exist to protect the state , you'll be left pissing in the wind if you rely on them. You are responsible for yourself always and it shouldn't be any other way.

But carry on...

How is it protecting the state to shut down business?

You’re right that NPHET aren’t the only experts, the government in this case are being overly cautious. Whereas last Christmas they err on the side of populism. I think that error has them afraid to open up right now.

CruelSummer · 01-07-2021 09:46AM

elefant wrote: »

Paul Reid is a professional, and chair of the modelling group, and what he tweeted about over 70s vulnerability to serious illness after vaccination is completely misleading.

You can say what you want about needing to trust in what experts are saying, and I've been staunchly of this view for the past year and half too, but you can't deny complete falsehoods staring you in the face.

If this falsehood didn't, in fact, factor into data used in the forecast NHPET made, then they should clarify that. Though this would then lead me to ask why he tweeted it in the first place.

Wrong person, it’s Philip Nolan you’re thinking of.

Ballynally · 01-07-2021 09:46AM

Wibbs wrote: »

Well that's one problem with this country and its authorities. They are almost never held to account and if they are rarely enough get any sort of penalty. Once you're in, you're in and when you leave there'll be a nice pension in it. Politicians at the top of the three are worst if all for this, but that's on us for repeatedly voting them in. Though to be fair the choices aren't exactly great or much different to each other.

Ever since i moved to Ireland i have been struggling w the political system here.
Until one day it dawned on me.
I was travelling w a friend. We spoke about the recent dail elections. He told me he voted for X. I asked him why? He said person X was responsible for putting a good children's playground in his town.
But X is a member of parliament. Should this not be decided on a council level, i asked? The telling answer was that X was grand because X could do something for him at a local level.
I told him this means that members of parliament worry about votes in their constituency first and then worry about running the country even members of cabinet.
It doesnt seem to be in the right order.
I came to understand that Ireland is a highly centralised country w trickle down politics.
You can vote for who you want and hope that your representative in parliament has enough clout to suck up to the boss to release fund f your local pet project.
For that X has to stay on board, on message and look to be cooperative, ie, play the game..

Klonker · 01-07-2021 09:48AM

JRant wrote: »

I'll give it a go but it's nowhere as straight forward as the way Nolan described it. You don't take the 95% figure and apply it to an entire population. That 95% figure is at the individual level, so every person that recieves the vaccine has a 5% chance of getting a bad dose. You then need to factor in the prevalence of catching it, which is not 100% or anywhere near it. So if there's a 10% chance of catching it then you have 0.05 (5%) x 0.1(10%) = 0.005 (0.5%).

Taking Nolan's example of 700,000 over 70's it means it means 3,500 people are at risk of contracting a serious dose, not 35,000 as he stated.

Thanks JRant. And in your example of 3,500 at risk of serious disease, wouldn't they just have the same chance of severe disease as an unvaccinated person? Say for example if an unvaccinated over 70s has a 20% chance of severe disease if they catch covid, then the likelyhood is if 3,500 are susceptible to severe disease, only about 700 will get severe disease? As the baseline measurement of 95% protection isn't against getting severe disease, its against the chances of an unvaccinated person in the same circumstances getting severe disease.

Like he's not lying when he says susceptible but it gives the impression all that 5% will get severe disease.

Does that make sense what I've outlined above? If so the worst case scenario seems impossible even if every single person on the island caught covid between now and September!

the kelt · 01-07-2021 09:50AM

Theres another things which needs to be remembered here.

Everything was going along just fine, all the mood music was good, Vaccines are going well, bits about the link between cases and hospitilisations was being weakened and broken, Delta a bit of a dark cloud but looking at UK etc still looking good. All pretty much positive with a bit of "lets still be careful here " thrown in, kinda what ye would expect.

Then bang Monday, doomsday!

These experts in modelling etc didnt see this until when? Monday? Just on Monday it was like "oh, lets look at this"

Surely these doomsday scenarios would be something that you would be noticing, looking at, making government aware off but no boom come Monday morning we went from a dark cloud to killer tornado the likes never see in this country before.

Does that not ring a few alarm bells even for those who trust NPHET and their modelling without question?

elefant · 01-07-2021 09:51AM

CruelSummer wrote: »

Wrong person, it’s Philip Nolan you’re thinking of.

My bad, thanks!

Although, as he's a professional too, the point is the same.

Bsharp · 01-07-2021 09:52AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Then why did they present such an obviously flawed model to the highest level of government?

This is the issue. They shouldn't have in the manner that they did. The headline figures were put out in the public and plenty of figures who have expertise in this field, and others, were not convinced. The response by government and NPHET highlight they're not convinced/confident either. Their clarification, while appreciated, raised more questions.
So we need to resolve how we're using available data, in theoretical analytics/modelling, to make real world decisions.

CruelSummer · 01-07-2021 09:54AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Again, no they can't.

That's updated licensing part of which is due to come in later this year and the rest in 2022.

Once brought in, the bill will mean that larger pubs and hotels can apply to open until 2am up to 104 nights per year, while smaller pubs will be able to open to 1am up to 104 nights per year. 1hr drinking up time brings it to 2am & 3am.

So therefore they can have people inside in said pubs until 3am come Autumn time. They’re not closed down and told they wouldn’t even be advised to reopen come end of September. They’re also not using a vaccine passport system. If you want to pick apart the finer details of the legislation, be my guest.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0629/1232083-northern-ireland-pubs/

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57644493

Bsharp · 01-07-2021 09:56AM

Ballynally wrote: »

Ever since i moved to Ireland i have been struggling w the political system here.
Until one day it dawned on me.
I was travelling w a friend. We spoke about the recent dail elections. He told me he voted for X. I asked him why? He said person X was responsible for putting a good children's playground in his town.
But X is a member of parliament. Should this not be decided on a council level, i asked? The telling answer was that X was grand because X could do something for him at a local level.
I told him this means that members of parliament worry about votes in their constituency first and then worry about running the country even members of cabinet.
It doesnt seem to be in the right order.
I came to understand that Ireland is a highly centralised country w trickle down politics.
You can vote for who you want and hope that your representative in parliament has enough clout to suck up to the boss to release fund f your local pet project.
For that X has to stay on board, on message and look to be cooperative, ie, play the game..

The name given to it is 'parish pump' or parochial politics.

paw patrol · 01-07-2021 09:58AM

TheCitizen wrote: »

How is it protecting the state to shut down business?

NPHET are afraid to allow any level risk and the exposing of the health service which is state run. As long as the EU print money the state services and civil service will be paid in full- maybe even a pay rise . No bother.
They are willingly to sacrifice all other private enterprise for that holy grail.
But are NPHET to blame - yes they are but in their defence , theirs is a single issue - the blame lies at cabinet and their cowardly deference to NPHET.

They have completely ignore the fact people to a large degree are willing to accept the covid risk.
Sure Newstalk and the rest will have surveys showing massive approval for NPHET
but your eyes will shows pubs/restaurants/parks/gyms/beaches and all the rest are packed and when indoor dining/drinking opens - they'll be further packed.
so make of that what you will.

Loafing Oaf · 01-07-2021 09:59AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

In response to Stephen Donnelly's assertion that NPHET have warned that "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland" is approaching, I cannot do better than to quote this twitter user;

"if this is true then how come we aren't heading straight back to level 5? Surely just keeping indoor dining closed won't stop "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland". I'm no virologist or statistician, but I'd say there is a high chance that statement is bollocks"

https://mobile.twitter.com/CoachRoche_/status/1410338908831899650

Do we know for a fact that he said this; it seems an astonishing outburst. Like, worse than the famine or the Black Death?:eek:

Stormyteacup · 01-07-2021 10:01AM

the kelt wrote: »

Theres another things which needs to be remembered here.

Everything was going along just fine, all the mood music was good, Vaccines are going well, bits about the link between cases and hospitilisations was being weakened and broken, Delta a bit of a dark cloud but looking at UK etc still looking good. All pretty much positive with a bit of "lets still be careful here " thrown in, kinda what ye would expect.

Then bang Monday, doomsday!

These experts in modelling etc didnt see this until when? Monday? Just on Monday it was like "oh, lets look at this"

Surely these doomsday scenarios would be something that you would be noticing, looking at, making government aware off but no boom come Monday morning we went from a dark cloud to killer tornado the likes never see in this country before.

Does that not ring a few alarm bells even for those who trust NPHET and their modelling without question?

Just because I dislike the man so much and have such a low opinion of him, which I appreciate is not shared by all - I reckon TH resented greatly having his scheduled meeting moved forward from Thursday to Monday to accommodate the alcohol-facilitators of Ireland and was minded to shut down even the rational possibility of a three-week delay and switched to ‘we were never going to recommend you can open until the end of September anyway - so there’ (*not THs actual words).

paw patrol · 01-07-2021 10:03AM

TheCitizen wrote: »

How is it protecting the state to shut down business?

You’re right that NPHET aren’t the only experts, the government in this case are being overly cautious. Whereas last Christmas they err on the side of populism. I think that error has them afraid to open up right now.

for clarity , I meant on as an individual the state doesn't care for you

people will be left drowning in debt (and other stuff like missed cancer treatment etc..)_ when this is over and the government will be gone to the next item on the agenda. MM will give his hangdog sigh remembering his school teacher days as he patronises you (again) and Leo will throw out some new soundbites for the LOLz

Go back to 2008 and the years after....how the state didn't give a hoot while people were left dying in some cases due to all sorts of fcukery.

facehugger99 · 01-07-2021 10:05AM

It's quite clear that Holohan is using Covid as a personal chance at redemption for his past failings. By painting the virus as a deadly killer he gets to portray himself as the hero that will save us all.

He doesn't care if he has to drag the entire country down to do it and the Government are too cowardly and weak to stop this from happening.

This is very dangerous, ego-driven nonsense from a man who does not want to relinquish control and who is prepared to bully, leak and mislead his way to get what he wants.

The fact it's being lapped up by large swades of the population is worrying.

Red Silurian · 01-07-2021 10:07AM

JDxtra wrote: »

Yes, when the Government say "2 weeks" it's just deferring an actual answer. Like a parent saying "we'll see" when a child asks for something (i.e. no).

That's how they are treating us.

12th March 2020 - Leo Varadkar, standing in front of the cameras in Washington DC, closes schools and requests working form home for 2 weeks

Throughout April, May and June there was 3 week extensions

Throughout July and August there were 3 week extensions to the "phase 4" reopening (essentially pubs that don't serve food and a few more people allowed at mass gatherings)

What I'm trying to say is I think you're right...

01-07-2021 10:07AM

Ballynally wrote: »

Ever since i moved to Ireland i have been struggling w the political system here.
Until one day it dawned on me.
I was travelling w a friend. We spoke about the recent dail elections. He told me he voted for X. I asked him why? He said person X was responsible for putting a good children's playground in his town.
But X is a member of parliament. Should this not be decided on a council level, i asked? The telling answer was that X was grand because X could do something for him at a local level.
I told him this means that members of parliament worry about votes in their constituency first and then worry about running the country even members of cabinet.
It doesnt seem to be in the right order.
I came to understand that Ireland is a highly centralised country w trickle down politics.
You can vote for who you want and hope that your representative in parliament has enough clout to suck up to the boss to release fund f your local pet project.
For that X has to stay on board, on message and look to be cooperative, ie, play the game..

The way I'd describe it is that we're incredibly corrupt but small enough that enough people benefit from it that it looks ok. Seeing us rank super-low on corruption indexes and the like always gets a chuckle from me.

Dr. Bre · 01-07-2021 10:08AM

It’s a pity we had a general election just before covid. Decisions would be different if election was near

Jinglejangle69 · 01-07-2021 10:08AM

Donnelly on Pat Kenny explaining things to us like we're 5 year olds.

Explaining and listening is what us plebs need.

Snooker Loopy · 01-07-2021 10:10AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's quite clear that Holohan is using Covid as a personal chance at redemption for his past failings. By painting the virus as a deadly killer he gets to portray himself as the hero that will save us all.

He doesn't care if he has to drag the entire country down to do it and the Government are too cowardly and weak to stop this from happening.

This is very dangerous, ego-driven nonsense from a man who does not want to relinquish control and who is prepared to bully, leak and mislead his way to get what he wants.

The fact it's being lapped up by large swades of the population is worrying.

Give up the amateur psychology.

thebaz · 01-07-2021 10:11AM

amongst all the scaremongering and over-exaggeration in the past week , surely this tops it from our Minister of Health Stephen Donnellly speaking to his own parliamentary part :

“the biggest hurricane that has ever hit Ireland is coming”.

Really , bigger than March 2020 when we did not know what we were dealing with , had no vaccine, no hope of vaccine , never mind the vulnerable and over half our population being vaccinated . Why does no one call out such hysterics and rubbish, tell us the truth why restrictions are needed not made up fear inducing drivel to continually shock the nation .

ThunbergsAreGo · 01-07-2021 10:11AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's quite clear that Holohan is using Covid as a personal chance at redemption for his past failings. By painting the virus as a deadly killer he gets to portray himself as the hero that will save us all.

He doesn't care if he has to drag the entire country down to do it and the Government are too cowardly and weak to stop this from happening.

This is very dangerous, ego-driven nonsense from a man who does not want to relinquish control and who is prepared to bully, leak and mislead his way to get what he wants.

The fact it's being lapped up by large swades of the population is worrying.

This is a bit unfair though. The media and the government have fed this deference to NPHET.

Holohan gives health advice the government should make informed decisions based off. In a functioning government he is just one of many inputs

Murph85 · 01-07-2021 10:11AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's quite clear that Holohan is using Covid as a personal chance at redemption for his past failings. By painting the virus as a deadly killer he gets to portray himself as the hero that will save us all.

He doesn't care if he has to drag the entire country down to do it and the Government are too cowardly and weak to stop this from happening.

This is very dangerous, ego-driven nonsense from a man who does not want to relinquish control and who is prepared to bully, leak and mislead his way to get what he wants.

The fact it's being lapped up by large swades of the population is worrying.

I wish the paying for this nonsense started right now... the budget cuts, tax hikes. See the public support to prevent zero deaths at the cost of billions then!

Jinglejangle69 · 01-07-2021 10:13AM

thebaz wrote: »

amongst all the scaremongering and over-exaggeration in the past week , surely this tops it from our Minister of Health Stephen Donnellly speaking to his own parliamentary part :

“the biggest hurricane that has ever hit Ireland is coming”.

Really , bigger than March 2020 when we did not know what we were dealing with , had no vaccine, no hope of vaccine , never mind the vulnerable and over half our population being vaccinated . Why does no one call out such hysterics and lies , tell us the truth why restrictions are needed not made up fear inducing drivel to continually shock the nation .

He's at it now on Pat Kenny.

This super spreading new virus that the vaccines aren't as effective against.

More spin and lies.

Snooker Loopy · 01-07-2021 10:13AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The way I'd describe it is that we're incredibly corrupt but small enough that enough people benefit from it that it looks ok. Seeing us rank super-low on corruption indexes and the like always gets a chuckle from me.

Yet the heroes of the "open it up" brigade are generally the very worst examples of parish pump, pork barrel blowhard gob****es.

The Healy Raes, Verona Murphy, Michael Collins, that eejit O'Donoghue in Limerick, Marc MacSharry.

Work that one out.

Murph85 · 01-07-2021 10:13AM

https://www.newstalk.com/news/i-was-just-shocked-john-mcguinness-criticises-stephen-donnelly-for-bad-management-1218813?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1625071349

Good luck to them trying to screw around and either or row back going forward, it's going to be much harder for them to do it...

JRant · 01-07-2021 10:14AM

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

I would agree. All would have been required to use statistical analysis at some point in the education or even professional work. To me, that makes the letter sent even worse. Did one of these people not say "hold on a sec, these numbers look a bit off".

thebaz · 01-07-2021 10:16AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

He's at it now on Pat Kenny.

This super spreading new virus that the vaccines aren't as effective against it.

More spin and lies.

Tell us the truth not lies - as if we all gullible fools, then again maybe we are at this stage. But seriously, this is our Minister for Health - Shocking, did not think Fiana Fail could sink much lower , but they continually seam to, this guy seams worse than anyone.

pc7 · 01-07-2021 10:16AM

Worst thing is if things do go belly up, we'll never hear the end of it

But I'm hopeful based on the Scottish CMO stating they are watching it closely and way ahead in terms of us that we can ride it out.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings