Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Bsharp

gozunda wrote: »

The model produced 5 different scenarios from a 'worst case scenario' (ie extreme) to a 'benign' scenario which is in or about where we are know. And yes the model did include those already vaccinated etc. The ECDC has also produced a model based on tge spread of the Delta variant warning of a potential event based on the numbers unvaccinated and those with just one dose being highlighted as veing most at risk. See. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

The question was those who've already had covid, not vaccinated. It's a question I still haven't found the answer to, any idea?

TomTomTim

SAMTALK wrote: »

You are really over thinking the dislike of Holohan TBH if this is what you come up with

Why do posts like this never bother to counter what's being said? If he's so wrong, explain to us why.

TomSweeney

DellyBelly wrote: »

Listening to Claire Byrne at the moment and I have to say the Delta virus sounds frightening...you have to be worried what is going to happen over here. Next couple of weeks will be telling to see if this new variant rips through the country...I really thought we had turned a corner...depressing stuff

Congrats, RTE have done their job on you, multiply this by millions across the country and this is why people will accept the neverending restrictions.

bloopy

funnydoggy wrote: »

:rolleyes: Here we go.

Always the same.
There is no limit this can be pushed without some here defending it to the hilt.
If that fails, then self satisfied dismissal will do.
Dress it up as bored commentary to show just how disdainful it all is.

Red Silurian

TomSweeney wrote: »

Israel says the Delta variant is infecting vaccinated people, representing as many as 50% of new cases. But they're less severe.

Should be the main talking point....

While a less severe disease is good in a way it also means you are more likely to spread it as you might not realise you have it, making it more transmissible again

TomTomTim

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Yes this can be fobbed off as just indoor dining, because that's what this change relates to. The cabinet were presented with a number of modelled scenarios varying in severity. None painted a great picture. They had to do something and tbh holding things almost as they are for a little while (no restrictions are being reimposed, something you'd hardly believe reading the consternation here) what probably the least action they could take.

The rest of that stuff above is just slippery slope fallacy nonsense

This is just disingenuous. The last few months, and especially the last few days, have proven most of the sceptics worst fears, yet you still claim that the slippery slope is a fallacy?

namloc1980

DellyBelly wrote: »

They had a an Irish guy who works for sky who got the delta virus and he's in a bad way at the moment. A very fit guy and in a real bad way. Also had 1 Astra jab as well...

Looks like they did their job on you with the fear. Funny that we never have interviews with people who got Covid and had nothing more than a bit of a cough/headache for a couple of days.

MrMusician18

TomTomTim wrote: »

This is just disingenuous. The last few months, and especially the last few days, have proven most of the sceptics worst fears, yet you still claim that the slippery slope is a fallacy?

No, none of the restrictions have been reimposed since the third wave. None of the restrictions have been repurposed for use against anything other than the covid crisis.

So yes it's slippery slope fallacy and the post I quoted was a load of bollocks.

Klonker

clubberlang12 wrote: »

The UK based reporter on Claire Byrne saying that this is "horrendous" and a terrible virus. Says that his daughter has tested positive.......

Claire: "And how is she feeling.... ?"

Enda: "Yeah she's absolutely fine"

You'd swear people never spend days in bed debilitated from a bad flu or cold before in pre-Covid history.

Not only that, you'd go into work on the bus, splutter over everyone there and the same when you got it the office and hardly a dirty look you'd get. Now if you leave your house with a runny nose your seen as a mass murderer or something in some people's eyes :pac:

SAMTALK

TomTomTim wrote: »

Why do posts like this never bother to counter what's being said? If he's so wrong, explain to us why.

"personal chance at redemption "
"painting virus as deadly killer "
"doesnt care if he has to drag the entire country down "

Absolute load of nonsense .

What ever we think of what's gone on the last while this is just ridiculous to think that 1 man alone in this country is using Covid for his own personal gain , and at the cost of dragging the whole country down just for his ego !

growleaves

Red Silurian wrote: »

While a less severe disease is good in a way it also means you are more likely to spread it as you might not realise you have it, making it more transmissible again

It was predicted back at the start and isn't surprising at all. As usually happens, variants arise. They usually spread easier but are less lethal. That appears to be happening here.

Nothing 'novel' there.

So it isn't an excuse for another round of panic, not really. There's no reason for each strain of covid to be given a new name either imo. Basically its just covid, but less deadly than it was. Since it wasn't super-deadly to begin with, mainly causing deaths of old age, panic is a choice.

TomSweeney

But aren't they saying the D variant is not just more transmissable, but more deadly too ?

MrMusician18

Klonker wrote: »

Not only that, you'd go into work on the bus, splutter over everyone there and the same when you got it the office and hardly a dirty look you'd get. Now if you leave your house with a runny nose your seen as a mass murderer or something in some people's eyes :pac:

And to be quite honest, as it should be. It is quite selfish behaviour to attend the workplace while ill, putting your want to be present over others needs to not get sick.

Sick people should always have stayed at home.

eskimohunt

eskimohunt wrote: »

If I were a competent FF politician right now, I'd be making political moves.

Not necessarily for the leadership, preferable though that is, but because of how the measures are considered locally for many TDs.

I e-mailed my town's local FF TD (failed to reach the Quota in 2020, and was deemed elected on the final count. The guy who lost out came just 936 votes behind him in FPs) to tell him he needn't bother knocking on my door looking for the vote at the next election if July 19 doesn't bring a definitive date for the reopening of the country and the standing down of NPHET.

Every pub in the town had a sticker supporting him in 2020.

It's going to be backbench FF TDs like that we need to target. Put them in fear of their seats and they'll heave Micheál over the side of the boat.

growleaves

TomSweeney wrote: »

But aren't they saying the D variant is not just more transmissable, but more deadly too ?

I can't keep track of all the falsehoods so I'm not sure who is saying that, is anyone is.

growleaves

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And to be quite honest, as it should be. It is quite selfish behaviour to attend the workplace while ill, putting your want to be present over others needs to not get sick.

Sick people should always have stayed at home.

Except of course that people are building up their innate immunity to coronaviruses by getting harmless colds each winter.

If a permanent anti-septic world is created that will lead to people eventually getting seriously sick.

You have to put things in proportion. Did the 1968 pandemic (4 million dead) lead to the creation of an anti-septic world in which people tried to avoid all germs all the time?

thebaz

TomSweeney wrote: »

But aren't they saying the D variant is not just more transmissable, but more deadly too ?

No, they are saying it is more transmitable , but NOT more deadly

FileNotFound

TomSweeney wrote: »

But aren't they saying the D variant is not just more transmissable, but more deadly too ?

Is it not a case that being more transmissable makes it more deadly by the fact it gets to more people.

For those under 40 in the UK the serious effects seem to be low - from the random bits i have seen online (not exactly solid fact now).


Would be nice for some real stats in relation to:

- Actually how much more transmissable (I hear a range of claims)
- Actual % chance of spread by asymptomatic (something that has never been clarified for any variant) v symptomatic
- Is the delta more dangerous (mortality/long term illness) on a case by case basis
- A breakdown of the risk by age (every 10 years not every 50)
- How protected against delta is someone who had a previous variant (Is the protection equivalent to a vaccine - say AZ)


So much hyperbole - I am at a loss for real factual data.

Also given the crazy models we were presented with - if they are accurate and cases are on the up should we not reenter real lockdown altogether. Based on what i have seen in person there is now far more mixing and less control with people on streets etc. than there was last year inside the pubs..

OwenM

DellyBelly wrote: »

Listening to Claire Byrne at the moment and I have to say the Delta virus sounds frightening...you have to be worried what is going to happen over here. Next couple of weeks will be telling to see if this new variant rips through the country...I really thought we had turned a corner...depressing stuff

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

Delta is not increasing hospital numbers nearly as much...... and this is from the Guardian (The anti-tory newspaper)

castletownman

Two local TD's got to me.

FG Paul Kehoe:

Thanks for getting in touch and I appreciate how difficult this is for everyone. The decisions taken at cabinet were also extremely difficult ones to take as they were clearly going to be unpopular.

This is a three week pause on the re-opening of indoor activities like hospitality and sport to do three things:

1. Accelerate the vaccine programme: NIAC now says we can use all vaccines for all age groups, which means we can speed up administration of the vaccines to everyone.

2. Monitor the Delta wave: it’s been dominant in the UK for 4/5 weeks but the UK believes it can weather the wave. We can see if they are right about the link between cases and hospitalisations being broken and learn from that for our own situation.

3. Develop the concept of a vaccine pass: to allow indoor hospitality, sport, and other indoor activities to reopen for people who are fully vaccinated and recovered.

In relation to the vaccine pass, we have done a lot of work on a digital cert for international travel. We will now work out whether we can adapt that for use for indoor activities in Ireland. The alternative to opening with a vaccine pass is not opening at all and having to wait until September or longer, by when there may be other variants and we will be heading into winter. Perhaps with vaccination passes we will even be able to have fully-seated cinemas and theatres again. The work will continue on this over the coming weeks.

I know that this is extremely difficult, but I do believe that we’re right in taking this cautious approach, especially if you look at the situation with cases and hospitalisations on the rise over the last number of days due to the Delta variant in parts of the UK and Europe, particularly Portugal.

Kind regards,

Paul

FF'S James Browne:

Thanks very much for contacting me. Just to let you know we received your email and will get back to you with a response as soon as possible. If you have any additional information that you think will help us to assist you, please feel free to reply to this email.


Best wishes,

James Browne T.D.

Minister of State for Law Reform at the Department of Justice

At least one response seems a lot less automated than the other.

Boggles

namloc1980 wrote: »

Again, I'll repeat the question. How many of those are in hospital/ICU, or dead for that matter, from Covid?

I'm sure the Finnish Health Ministry will monitor it. I imagine the outbreak will not just be contained to the 300 supporters that come home with like you suggested.

Obviously that data will depend on several key variables.

Personally I think Finland have managed the pandemic rather well.

But if you like you should fire them off an email, I'm not sure they would entertain your myopic wholly unqualified musings, but sure you never know.

Let us know how you get on.

Deusexmachina

The term 'Delta Variant' is being bandied about as equivalent to 'Black Death'.

If it is just more infectious, so what? The same fundamental truth applies - we need to get the vaccination programme completed.

The fact that we have Professor McCriath, the retired university administrator (???!!!) leading our vaccine programme, congratulating himself and his team speaks volumes for our pathetically low expectations from our government:

"We have now, despite all the predications and gloom out of this, we have more vaccinators than we have vaccines to go out.

"So we are all the time trying to get more and more vaccines into the system and get them out as efficiently as possible."

Prof MacCraith says the latest vaccine figures mean almost 45% of the adult population is now fully vaccinated."

This is July - six whole months since we started. Less than half the adults vaccinated. A dreadful performance.

charlie14

growleaves wrote: »

Except of course that people are building up their innate immunity to coronaviruses by getting harmless colds each winter.

If a permanent anti-septic world is created that will lead to people eventually getting seriously sick.

You have to put things in proportion. Did the 1968 pandemic (4 million dead) lead to the creation of an anti-septic world in which people tried to avoid all germs all the time?

Except of course people have been building up their innate immunity to colds each winter since Adam was a young lad and it has not been worth a damn when it came to immunity from Covid-19.


What would your estimate for the lenght of time it would take to build up innate immunity to Covid-19 and the corresponding yearly deaths ?

newuser99999

castletownman wrote: »

Two local TD's got to me.

FG Paul Kehoe:

Thanks for getting in touch and I appreciate how difficult this is for everyone. The decisions taken at cabinet were also extremely difficult ones to take as they were clearly going to be unpopular.

This is a three week pause on the re-opening of indoor activities like hospitality and sport to do three things:

1. Accelerate the vaccine programme: NIAC now says we can use all vaccines for all age groups, which means we can speed up administration of the vaccines to everyone.

2. Monitor the Delta wave: it’s been dominant in the UK for 4/5 weeks but the UK believes it can weather the wave. We can see if they are right about the link between cases and hospitalisations being broken and learn from that for our own situation.

3. Develop the concept of a vaccine pass: to allow indoor hospitality, sport, and other indoor activities to reopen for people who are fully vaccinated and recovered.

In relation to the vaccine pass, we have done a lot of work on a digital cert for international travel. We will now work out whether we can adapt that for use for indoor activities in Ireland. The alternative to opening with a vaccine pass is not opening at all and having to wait until September or longer, by when there may be other variants and we will be heading into winter. Perhaps with vaccination passes we will even be able to have fully-seated cinemas and theatres again. The work will continue on this over the coming weeks.

I know that this is extremely difficult, but I do believe that we’re right in taking this cautious approach, especially if you look at the situation with cases and hospitalisations on the rise over the last number of days due to the Delta variant in parts of the UK and Europe, particularly Portugal.

Kind regards,

Paul

FF'S James Browne:

Thanks very much for contacting me. Just to let you know we received your email and will get back to you with a response as soon as possible. If you have any additional information that you think will help us to assist you, please feel free to reply to this email.


Best wishes,

James Browne T.D.

Minister of State for Law Reform at the Department of Justice

At least one response seems a lot less automated than the other.

Would put Galway West TDs to shame. I got generic responses from PAs that my messages would be passed on to the TD. What are we paying these people for.

OwenM

Deusexmachina wrote: »

The term 'Delta Variant' is being bandied about as equivalent to 'Black Death'.

If it is just more infectious, so what? The same fundamental truth applies - we need to get the vaccination programme completed.

The fact that we have Professor McCriath, the retired university administrator (???!!!) leading our vaccine programme, congratulating himself and his team speaks volumes for our pathetically low expectations from our government:

"We have now, despite all the predications and gloom out of this, we have more vaccinators than we have vaccines to go out.

"So we are all the time trying to get more and more vaccines into the system and get them out as efficiently as possible."

Prof MacCraith says the latest vaccine figures mean almost 45% of the adult population is now fully vaccinated."

This is July - six whole months since we started. Less than half the adults vaccinated. A dreadful performance.

Actually that's really not true or fair, we have no real control on the supply of vaccines, although I do have issues with NIAC, but the performance in producing trained vaccinators and getting the available supply out and injected has been excellent. We don't have stockpiles of vaccines sitting around.... and that's the real test here.

Red Silurian

growleaves wrote: »

It was predicted back at the start and isn't surprising at all. As usually happens, variants arise. They usually spread easier but are less lethal. That appears to be happening here.

Nothing 'novel' there.

So it isn't an excuse for another round of panic, not really. There's no reason for each strain of covid to be given a new name either imo. Basically its just covid, but less deadly than it was. Since it wasn't super-deadly to begin with, mainly causing deaths of old age, panic is a choice.

All viruses mutate, influenza mutates twice a year, hence the annual flu jab

Coronaviruses up until now weren't studied as much but it was believed they didn't mutate as much as other viruses.

Also your argument of it only affecting the elderly is a weak one as it affects everybody and a variant could affect younger people worse

castletownman wrote: »

At least one response seems a lot less automated than the other.

They're both automated, the FG fella just put more thought into his auto-reply

growleaves

charlie14 wrote: »

Except of course people have been building up their innate immunity to colds each winter since Adam was a young lad and it has not been worth a damn when it came to immunity from Covid-19.


What would your estimate for the lenght of time it would take to build up innate immunity to Covid-19 and the corresponding yearly deaths ?

Lots of people have had innate immunity to covid 19. That was seen on the Diamond Princess, which was like a floating petri dish yet many escaped infection. It was seen when people who shared a bed with a sick person didn't even get an asymptomatic infection.

Then there were all the people who were asymptomatic that suffered no ill effects.

Would you like to see nobody ever get a cold again and are you claiming that this will lead to a general improvement in health?

gozunda

Bsharp wrote: »

The question was those who've already had covid, not vaccinated. It's a question I still haven't found the answer to, any idea?

Well yes. I believe that was already covered. Afaik the mathematical model used was the population-based SEIR model

From the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group to NPHET

This model (which divides the population into groups that are susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I) or recovered (R). The number of people in each group changes over time and is governed by a set of differential equations.

Tbf the modelling is being overseen by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group whose members have considerable expertise in this area despite what some want to believe.

facehugger99

TomSweeney wrote: »

Congrats, RTE have done their job on you, multiply this by millions across the country and this is why people will accept the neverending restrictions.

I wouldn't worry too much - same poster spent months on here posting the same thing over and over about wanting to go to the beach but being too scared because it was 8km away.

charlie14

Deusexmachina wrote: »

The term 'Delta Variant' is being bandied about as equivalent to 'Black Death'.

If it is just more infectious, so what? The same fundamental truth applies - we need to get the vaccination programme completed.

The fact that we have Professor McCriath, the retired university administrator (???!!!) leading our vaccine programme, congratulating himself and his team speaks volumes for our pathetically low expectations from our government:

"We have now, despite all the predications and gloom out of this, we have more vaccinators than we have vaccines to go out.

"So we are all the time trying to get more and more vaccines into the system and get them out as efficiently as possible."

Prof MacCraith says the latest vaccine figures mean almost 45% of the adult population is now fully vaccinated."

This is July - six whole months since we started. Less than half the adults vaccinated. A dreadful performance.

In fairness the problem with vaccinations has not been getting shots in arms. It has been supply. Especially with AstraZeneca and to a lesser extent J&J.