Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Ballynally

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Serious question... how long could it take the NPHET computer scientists to change the input values on spreadsheets to reflect AstraZeneca and J&J being available to all groups? Surely it couldn't take more than a few hours?

Print the model again and then open up the country on the 5th. Madness how this is all down to outdated modelling.

Are you suggesting to NPHET to try and produce a more positive picture?
I think youd have to replace all of the members.
It is against their nature..

lawred2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’d agree with everything except I’d say that something very wrong occurred sometime in early or mid 2020 rather than last week. The same over-reach, the same fearfulness, the same abdication of political leadership, the same manifestation of out-of-your-depth incompetence, the same eagerness to quash freedoms for the illusion of safety, has been manifest right from the beginning.

Personally I excused it in March and April 2020 as no one really knew what we were dealing with. More astute people, such as Peter Hitchens, had the measure of this whole episode right from the beginning; alas, not me. I was in favor of lockdown and restrictions up until around May 2020. By then it was very clear that we had all - globally - overreacted and that the cure (shut downs, restriction of movement, mandatory detention, etc) was over reach, and worse than the disease.

In retrospect, the deference of incompetent, fearful politicians to incompetent, authoritarian civil servants in 2020 turned out to be an unwitting and all too casual prying at the lid of Pandora’s box for free societies like ours. The outcome: we now know which of our neighbors have a predilection for (soft) totalitarianism and we see that politicians and civil servants easily get addicted to it, too. It’s something you slip into, unknowingly, rather than forthrightly embrace.

The country elected a report collecting FF taoiseach in the middle of a pandemic. Got exactly what we deserved.

Edit.. exactly what we deserved in the context of a ditherer who always defers to reports in lieu of ever having to make a decision.

Silentcorner

I hope this softens the cough of posters who have spent years criticizing how the Brits or the Americans run their country, I hope those posters and there are many, see now, in all it's glory how utterly dysfuctional our Government is...

One the one hand we have a weak Cabinet led by two weak leaders, with Ministers, many of whom are only there because of geography or gender, who have been paralyzed with fear since the day they all took office.

We have allowed arrogant, highly paid Health Bureaucrats of the most dysfunctional Health system in Europe complete control of running this country in the foolish belief that they are "following the science".

We have put more people out of work,closed more businesses, borrowed most money than virtually all our international counterparts...we have imposed what are in my opinion inhuman health policies on the population despite the lack of credible evidence the policies actually work, we have never shifted gear to lighten the load on the people most affected,in fact, we have never taken the foot of those people's throats....

This is a National Crisis of Government as much as it is a pandemic that thankfully wasn't as deadly as we were all led to believe!

Ballynally

JRant wrote: »

It's as clear as day that something very wrong has occurred this week. The CMO sent a letter to government with Armageddon type projections in it. It completely ignored the possibility of speeding up the vaccine program.

The man leading the modelling doesn't seem to understand with a 95% efficacy means, as shown by his tweets tonight.

The modelling assumes an R number of between 1.4/1.6 when Israel's data shows it drops significantly below that.

The UK data shows that a link between cases and severe illness is now broken.

MM appears to have misled cabinet on a fairly massive piece of information.

Even at face value there are serious questions to answer and shows a level of arrogance and complacency has taken root within the upper echelons of government and NPHET.

And yet, according to RTE news this morning, nothing to see here, move on. MM article with the same old stuff about him worried about Delta and nothing about any possible political issues.And someone from Sinn Fein equally worried, saying the CMO letter was 'sobering and stark' and demanding more action by the cabinet. Does RTE go out and try to find someone to agree with the government's message?

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0701/1232341-coronavirus-ireland/

dirkmeister

Has any Irish journalist picked up Philip Nolan’s 95% efficacy claim?


He’s hardly THAT wrong about something like that, surely?!?

bucketybuck

The sad part is that it is only the last few days that has people thinking we lost the plot, when in fact things have been badly wrong for well over a year now and they seemingly couldn't see it.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

A bit odd that- Who is saying that?

But if they knew the precise details* of the proposal whilst undertaking the modelling - which as you say was "admittedly not decided" - I'm sure they could have. A time machine would have been handy otherwise. And I'm fairly certain they can also make model based vaccine uptake predictions - again once they had the precise details of the NIAC recommendations.

But I don't think everyone really gets that tbh.

*

https://www.joe.ie/news/stephen-donnelly-hoping-adults-will-able-fully-vaccinated-end-august-725283

I’m saying it. Not odd at all - unless it’s the case they did model for speedier vaccination, it’s an obvious question to ask.

Do they need precise details to model scenarios? Surely that’s the point of modelling - plug in different values for the metrics that are subject to change.

Moving through rollout more quickly was already mooted. Did they have a time machine to plug in possible higher close contacts for example - where did they get the precise details for that or any other metric? Are there NIAC equivalents for all other model variables meaning these variables can only be plugged in after being signed off by the relevant committee and only then become ‘precise details’?

What’s odd is that you are defending the glaring omission of factoring in a very obvious metric that is subject to change - one that can be theorised as easily as any other metric used.

I’m not asking why all models didn’t contain the updated NIAC decision - the question is why did even just one model allow for example, a 20% speedier vaccination rollout.

the kelt

ingo1984 wrote: »

Looks like nphets days are numbered. Donnelly to set up new advisory group for roll out of rapid antigen testing. Essentially a zero vote of confidence in nphet.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/governmentset-to-defy-nphetadvice-and-press-on-withrapid-antigen-tests-40600533.html

Well at least that’s something.

How multiple other countries can use a system to help live with this virus yet we couldn’t because of the whims of a few civil servants is beyond me.

paw patrol

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The poster said that everything is closed, while in fact almost everything is open. That kind of disingenuous fact free posting doesn't help his cause.

I find posts like this very disingenuous.
If there are restrictions then you can't say things are open.

Are pubs open? . you must sit outside with limited numbers ,people can't move and socialise freely around the pub. So they aren't.

Despite claims that kids sports were back - my kids GAA matches only started 2 weeks ago. To claim the non contact pod training of pre june was GAA is a load of b0lll0cks.

My eldest is only back at his mma a few weeks - in pods. is that mma? no it's a half way house - kinda mma.

Ballynally

Stormyteacup wrote: »

I’m not asking why all models didn’t contain the updated NIAC decision - the question is why did even just one model allow for example, a 20% speedier vaccination rollout.

You probably meant 'didnt'.
Anyway, it seems clear that the models were reflecting THs mind.
A speedier vaccine rollout factored in didnt quite suit his agenda.It is not the first time that he did a volte face, saying one moment the picture looks good (vaccinations really change the picture), followed shortly by a comment that says the opposite.
I remember him coming back after a break. He immediately went to work w his messaging, massaging the irish psyche.
There is an unremovable tumor in there which cant be removed but is easily inflammated, FEAR!

JRant

Klonker wrote: »

I think I'm a bit like Philip Nolan and don't fully understand how the vaccine efficency percentage is measured.
Anyone care to explain in simple enough terms for myself and Philly if he's reading:D

I'll give it a go but it's nowhere as straight forward as the way Nolan described it. You don't take the 95% figure and apply it to an entire population. That 95% figure is at the individual level, so every person that recieves the vaccine has a 5% chance of getting a bad dose. You then need to factor in the prevalence of catching it, which is not 100% or anywhere near it. So if there's a 10% chance of catching it then you have 0.05 (5%) x 0.1(10%) = 0.005 (0.5%).

Taking Nolan's example of 700,000 over 70's it means it means 3,500 people are at risk of contracting a serious dose, not 35,000 as he stated.

hamburgham

Seriously, what has happened Sam McConkey?
He did disappear for a while, has that some bearing on the change?

pc7

hamburgham wrote: »

Seriously, what has happened Sam McConkey?

Are you listening to Newstalk? In fairness he is like that a few weeks now, at least he is talking sense, although its a bit disconcerting

Don't Chute!

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What exactly is irresponsible about restricting indoor hospitality to the vaccinated. I am genuinely having trouble understanding why this is considered a huge imposition (aside of course from the numerous cranks on thread who use any chink or crack to wedge their lever of opposition in).

I love the pub and the restaurant, probably more than most, but jaysus I'll live without sitting inside for a few more weeks (or months if required) until my turn comes around.

People need to get a grip here.

June 2020: “for **** sake can people not just stay indoors for a few more weeks”!!

June 2021: “for **** sake can people not just stay outdoors for a few more weeks”!!

paw patrol

pc7 wrote: »

Are you listening to Newstalk? In fairness he is like that a few weeks now, at least he is talking sense, although its a bit disconcerting

it is a bit weird to see him evolve,...disconcerting is right
although he probably read my post and was enlightened

lee_baby_simms

pc7 wrote: »

Are you listening to Newstalk? In fairness he is like that a few weeks now, at least he is talking sense, although its a bit disconcerting

I heard McConkey during the week supporting NPHETs modelled projections.

This doesn’t exactly lend credibility to NPHET, McConkey himself at one stage predicted that 100,000 people would die of Covid in this country.

Ballynally

JRant wrote: »

I'll give it a go but it's nowhere as straight forward as the way Nolan described it. You don't take the 95% figure and apply it to an entire population. That 95% figure is at the individual level, so every person that recieves the vaccine has a 5% chance of getting a bad dose. You then need to factor in the prevalence of catching it, which is not 100% or anywhere near it. So if there's a 10% chance of catching it then you have 0.05 (5%) x 0.1(10%) = 0.005 (0.5%).

Taking Nolan's example of 700,000 over 70's it means it means 3,500 people are at risk of contracting a serious dose, not 35,000 as he stated.

As always, the prefalence DOES depend on multiple factors.
You have to assume vulnerable people will display a different behaviour compared to young and healthy ones.
Those w comorbidities will still be super cautious.
It is not like the 5% are being put in the Delta room w full exposure f a long time.
People behave differently in different circumstances.
That almost never features in health official modelling/projections.
As if we are all static victims..

francogarbanzo

What this highlights for me is that we're only a surge away from another real lockdown. If this is how they're handling the re-opening during the good period, imagine what fall and winter are going to be like.

JeffKenna

Ballynally wrote: »

As always, the prefalence DOES depend on multiple factors.
You have to assume vulnerable people will display a different behaviour compared to young and healthy ones.
Those w comorbidities will still be super cautious.
It is not like the 5% are being put in the Delta room w full exposure f a long time.
People behave differently in different circumstances.
That almost never features in health official modelling/projections.
As if we are all static victims..

To be fair if we're putting butter on our antigen tests it's not a stretch to believe we're queuing up for the Delta waiting room.

Sleeper12

Silentcorner wrote:

I hope this softens the cough of posters who have spent years criticizing how the Brits or the Americans run their country, I hope those posters and there are many, see now, in all it's glory how utterly dysfuctional our Government is...

It's worth remembering that the British & US governments are responsible for 1000s of extra deaths due to the mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic. It's also worth remembering that the UK have also postponed the opening process for the country.

In Ireland we have to deal with muppets that can't follow a few basic rules when we are opening. Pubs only opened for a few weeks before Christmas but the few weeks was more than enough to allow said muppets to bring a death sentence home to elderly parents /grandparents during the season of good will.

Lockdowns have been very successful in Ireland. Unfortunately due to the above muppets, Ireland hasn't been very successful in opening up the country.

bear1

Anyone else get the impression that some of the posters here are members of nphet?

dodzy

emo72 wrote: »

Countries ****ed.
FF/FG gifted country to SF.
Countries ****ed.

Not a hope. It’ll never happen.

But you are spot on with the other two observations.

Zebra3

bear1 wrote: »

Anyone else get the impression that some of the posters here are members of nphet?

I doubt that, but lot of weirdos in this country.

People still roll up with their kids to the Catholic Church despite all they know.

Ash.J.Williams

Sleeper12 wrote: »

It's worth remembering that the British & US governments are responsible for 1000s of extra deaths due to the mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic. It's also worth remembering that the UK have also postponed the opening process for the country.

In Ireland we have to deal with muppets that can't follow a few basic rules when we are opening. Pubs only opened for a few weeks before Christmas but the few weeks was more than enough to allow said muppets to bring a death sentence home to elderly parents /grandparents during the season of good will.

Lockdowns have been very successful in Ireland. Unfortunately due to the above muppets, Ireland hasn't been very successful in opening up the country.

fact

Kiith

bear1 wrote: »

Anyone else get the impression that some of the posters here are members of nphet?

Well, their modelling looks like something certain posters here would come up with, so i'd well believe it :pac:

paw patrol

we were never in this together and the plot was lost last summer.

the state was paralyzed with fear and our leaders had absolutely no risk appetitie
imagine a leader in any sector in fear of taking risk - it wouldn't happen - they would have never achieved anything and not made leader for sure.

The country and esp the young people were sacrificed for a small cohort of panic merchants who swallowed the guff from NPHET ,the state and the paid off media.

the covid19 was an exercise in overblown hysteria.
The equivalent of the moving statues for the non secular ireland of the new century

_Kaiser_

bear1 wrote: »

Anyone else get the impression that some of the posters here are members of nphet?

Nah.. to be fair there are a lot of people still posting on other social media and ringing/texting radio stations (and assuming they're real people, not plants) who are still fully backing NPHET and their "advice"

15 months of constant coverage, "expert" doom-sayers and suggestions that huge numbers of death is potentially just 2 weeks away, and in and out of lockdown and restrictions is bound to have an effect.

Plus there are a lot of people in this country who will always do or believe what they're told by authority figures without question (goes back to the days of the Church), and more importantly NEED to be seen to be doing so, and calling out anyone who doesn't feel/do as they do.

facehugger99

What this illustrates for me is how easily a State can slip into totalitarianism.

We have set the bar incredibly low as to how easily democratic rights and civil liberties can be removed. There are 30-odd people in hospital at the moment with Covid and the state is fining citizens €2,000 for going to the airport. If that doesn't strike anyone as worrying then I despair for the future of this country.

The population at large have shown themselves to be easily susceptible to manipulation through fear and hysteria. They have been more than willing to trade away hard-won freedoms on the promise of safety. While this Government are weak, cowardly and incompetent, the next one may have far more sinister intentions.

The prevailing response of most people has been a collective shrug of the shoulders as this nonsense has dragged on for over 15 months. I'd say the politicians can't believe how easily they have been able to push through restrictions with barely a whimper from the public - we have acted like frightened children throughout looking to be mammied and nannied by the State - it's been sickening and embarrassing to witness.

It's a worrying time for anyone who values democratic freedoms - the response to a fairly harmless virus has been disproportionate beyond belief.

What happens during the next Government-defined 'crisis' when there is a bunch of former terrorists and state-subversives with their hands on the levers of power?

Richard Hillman

That 95% tweet from Nolan shows they are not giving up on this. It will still be 95% in winter, it will still be 95% next Summer and next winter.

Then you have their media stooges rolling out "what's the acceptable level of deaths?" lines. Gonna be the same lines in winter, next summer, next winner.

They will not go quietly into the night

is_that_so

Richard Hillman wrote: »

That 95% tweet from Nolan shows they are not giving up on this. It will still be 95% in winter, it will still be 95% next Summer and next winter.

Then you have their media stooges rolling out "what's the acceptable level of deaths?" lines. Gonna be the same lines in winter, next summer, next winner.

They will not go quietly into the night

Well, they are an emergency team and that emergency is now all but over. Not sure that Twitter are media stooges and it's inevitable that the media will run with this.