Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

JRant

Ballynally wrote: »

As always, the prefalence DOES depend on multiple factors.
You have to assume vulnerable people will display a different behaviour compared to young and healthy ones.
Those w comorbidities will still be super cautious.
It is not like the 5% are being put in the Delta room w full exposure f a long time.
People behave differently in different circumstances.
That almost never features in health official modelling/projections.
As if we are all static victims..

Indeed and the claim is that for simplicity sake that's the way they have to model it. Unfortunately, it means any model derived from it is basically like trying to tell what the weather will be like in 2 weeks by putting your finger in the air. Now for an academic study it might be okay to do this but when you're basing real world policy on it then we have serious problems.

I remember early in my career we were trying to model how a piece of equipment would behave in the ocean with 6 degrees of freedom involved. One of the senior members of the team made a comment that stuck with me. He basically said we need to actually put one in the water as the sea won't be long making ****e of the calculations.

Trying to model highly complex scenarios with simple modelling just does not work.

The only country in Europe to close construction in 2021.
The only country to have a travel restriction in place for months on end.
The only country in Europe that doesn't support the use of Antigen tests.
The only country in Europe that lost out on the Euro's as we wouldn't commit to any crowd capacity.
The only country in Europe that wasn't allowing outdoor dining back in May.
The only country in Europe not currently allowing indoor dining.
The only country in Europe not going ahead with the EU digital certificate today
The only country in Europe not reporting on deaths in a timely manner

The one thing we have over other countries is more debt and unemployment.

The plot was lost a long long time ago. I suspect in the years to come people will be wondering why our economy is struggling so much

Fils

Chivito550 wrote: »

No opinion on abortion.

No issue with somebody thinking abortion should be allowed, and vaccination mandatory.

I have an issue with the branding "My Body, My Choice". Totally hypocrisy to use that phrase for abortion and then abandon it later on. I thought the general messaging of that phrase was that each person has control over their own body. Clearly it only refers to one specific issue.

What has abortion got to do with indoor dining?

melekalikimaka

Fils wrote: »

What professionals are you referring to?

Dr Tony Holohan, chief medical officer at the Department of Health.

Prof Colm Bergin, infectious diseases consultant at St James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Trinity College Dublin.

Paul Bolger, director of Department of Health resources division.

Dr Eibhlin Connolly, deputy chief medical officer at the Department of Health.

Tracey Conroy, assistant secretary in the acute hospitals division of the Department of Health.

Dr John Cuddihy, interim director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).

Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD.

Colm Desmond, assistant secretary for corporate legislation, mental health, drugs policy and food safety division in the Department of Health.

Wibbs

TheCitizen wrote: »

L
Are the government being overly cautious now re opening indoor hospitality? Perhaps they are but they’re merely putting it off by another week or two by the looks of it. They’re perhaps being sluggish and incompetent and craven but what’s new there? That does not mean they’re complicit in some kind of conspiracy to deprive us of freedom etc.

Aye. Never ascribe conspiracy to something when incompetence is by far the more likely.

stephenjmcd

CruelSummer wrote: »

Ok fair enough. Just after double checking - all pubs are open in NI for indoor and outdoor & can remain open now until 3am.

Again, no they can't.

That's updated licensing part of which is due to come in later this year and the rest in 2022.

Once brought in, the bill will mean that larger pubs and hotels can apply to open until 2am up to 104 nights per year, while smaller pubs will be able to open to 1am up to 104 nights per year. 1hr drinking up time brings it to 2am & 3am.

Chivito550

Chivito550 wrote: »

No opinion on abortion.

No issue with somebody thinking abortion should be allowed, and vaccination mandatory.

I have an issue with the branding "My Body, My Choice". Totally hypocrisy to use that phrase for abortion and then abandon it later on. I thought the general messaging of that phrase was that each person has control over their own body. Clearly it only refers to one specific issue.

It's a transmissible disease. Is pregnancy airborne?

melekalikimaka

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

I'd be happy to follow the experts on this, just not our experts. If medical teams across the continent were doling out the same advice do you think most people here would have a problem with it? Just look at the opposition to antigen testing, fúcking bizarre behaviour from NPHET there.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/reliability-of-covid-antigen-tests-seen-as-key-issue-as-reopening-continues-1.4560879

_Kaiser_

TheCitizen wrote: »

LOL. Haven’t been on this thread for ages. Ironic scaremongering in the last sentence. Through all this there’s been guff on this thread about some conspiracy to take “freedoms from the citizens etc. blah, blah.” I probably put this to posters like you who live on this thread before; why would the powers that be want to shut down society, to shut down retail businesses? They want us all working like worker bees. This conspiracy theory stuff pedalled by many on this thread is nonsensical.

Are the government being overly cautious now re opening indoor hospitality? Perhaps they are but they’re merely putting it off by another week or two by the looks of it. They’re perhaps being sluggish and incompetent and craven but what’s new there? That does not mean they’re complicit in some kind of conspiracy to deprive us of freedom etc.

Just another 2 weeks eh?

Suppose that's OK f you're still working on full pay and maybe saving money from all this, and are comfortably setup with a home and circle of friends and family and routine.

Not so much if you're one of those whose livelihoods is affected, or who are being discriminated against (the younger side of our population), or just who don't believe that a fantasy report with unsubstantiated assumptions and incomplete/outdated data as its basis is enough reason to delay further reopening because a very very small percentage of people MIGHT get sick

Sleeper12

Sleeper12 wrote: »

2nd December 2020 270 new cases.
8th January 2021 8227 new cases


We did this in slightly over 5 weeks!! What do you suppose would happen if we didn't lock down? Do you think the high numbers would have gone away on their own? Do you suppose they would have increased into the 10s of thousands predicted?

Important to note that the computer system crashed and all the government/HSE etc were on the Christmas holidays so we had large backlogs getting reported in Jan.

Its also not relevant anymore due to the vaccines

KaneToad

Fils wrote: »

The only numbers that nphet and Paul Reid are interested in is their bank balance.

Do you think they are on a commission?

the kelt

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

I could live with 2/3 weeks overcautiousness, if we had opened on the 21st/28th June there would be no outrage.

But we are basically a month behind Europe now, and with this pantomime that will play out over the next 3 weeks with the government pretending to come up with solutions it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the reopening is shifted again to August.

If the rest of Europe and UK is fine in the coming months and deaths don’t increase significantly then NPHET have cost us almost two months. At what point does that become malpractice? Like taking out a patients kidney in an appendectomy.

They aren’t only disagreeing with the majority of experts across Europe, they are overshooting their recommendations by a mile, it shows a serious brass neck to do this without fear of repercussions, all of these people should never work in the health sector again if they are proven wrong.

Cant reopen in August, what about the schools going back?

Come September and October ye will have lads playing county finals and out celebrating, look at what happened last year, cant re open then.

Come November, listen we need to have a meaningful Christmas dont we, best not to reopen then, we will see at Christmas.

December, jaysus remember December 2020, we will have a feckin million cases this time around, sure we cant reopen.

The thing is if someone posted this doomsday scenario a month ago i would have just dismissed them but after Monday i dont really know anymore. I mean if Sam Mc Conkey a zero Covid advocate is less pessimistic than NPHET its hard to know what to say??

bucketybuck

You'd need to be pretty ****ing slow in the head to believe that this latest delay is only for 2 weeks.

Fils

Deleted User wrote: »

The only country in Europe to close construction in 2021.
The only country to have a travel restriction in place for months on end.
The only country in Europe that doesn't support the use of Antigen tests.
The only country in Europe that lost out on the Euro's as we wouldn't commit to any crowd capacity.
The only country in Europe that wasn't allowing outdoor dining back in May.
The only country in Europe not currently allowing indoor dining.
The only country in Europe not going ahead with the EU digital certificate today
The only country in Europe not reporting on deaths in a timely manner

The one thing we have over other countries is more debt and unemployment.

The plot was lost a long long time ago. I suspect in the years to come people will be wondering why our economy is struggling so much

The only country in Europe paying massive salaries to Paul Reid and co.

Ballynally

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Then you have their media stooges rolling out "what's the acceptable level of deaths?" lines. Gonna be the same lines in winter, next summer, next winner.

t

I think you actually CAN have a discussion about acceptable levels of deaths.
Nobody wants to talk about it but we accept certain death levels all the time.
One example is deaths from influenza.
We could say we have to accept the death levels normally associated w a bad outbreak of influenza or even an epidemic, proceed w vaccinations as rapid as possible, like we are, and let life continue as is.
The lockdown method has reached its ceiling, both financially and health wise.It can no longer be used.
Even halting indoor hospitality will not statistically influence the growth of variants much.
To get back to acceptable death levels: severe influenza outbreak in Ireland 2017/2018. Deaths:255.
You can give that answer to anyone asking and then pose a question back: what would YOU say is an acceptable level of deaths?
They wont have an answer because it seems absurd to them.
They would like to say: 0 but likely realise how stupid that sounds.

TheCitizen

is_that_so wrote: »

It's called following the crowd and even if the government are screaming blue murder over NPHET they can't do so publicly. SF are good at working angles and seeming on everyone's side. Government ain't the problem here but a lot of people believe they are so enter SF to play the reasonable party.

How do you mean government ain’t the problem here? It’s their call at the end of the day. They’re being cautious, overly cautious by the looks of it. They remember that they got a lashback for opening up prior to Christmas. It looks like they were over optimistic then and over cautious now.

melekalikimaka

Chivito550 wrote: »

Are the members of NPHET professionals in data analytics?

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

OwenM

melekalikimaka wrote: »

alot of people here seem to know more than professionals... worrying times

A little analogy that might illustrate why lay people can validly critique a professional opinion.

If my kitchen tap is leaking and I ask a plumber to fix it but when I come back an hour later I can see it's still leaking water - can I validly tell the plumber it isn't fixed? Oh and just for confirmation I go in to the kitchen's of twenty of my neighbours just to see what a non leaking tap looks like. While this is an absurd reduction, it is valid to illustrate the point.

Keyzer

melekalikimaka wrote: »

Dr Tony Holohan, chief medical officer at the Department of Health.

Prof Colm Bergin, infectious diseases consultant at St James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Trinity College Dublin.

Paul Bolger, director of Department of Health resources division.

Dr Eibhlin Connolly, deputy chief medical officer at the Department of Health.

Tracey Conroy, assistant secretary in the acute hospitals division of the Department of Health.

Dr John Cuddihy, interim director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).

Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD.

Colm Desmond, assistant secretary for corporate legislation, mental health, drugs policy and food safety division in the Department of Health.

Professionals in the health care industry perhaps...

Definitely not professionals in statistical modelling...

Definitely not professionals in risk management...

And defintely not professionals in telling the truth....

Economics101

Chivito550 wrote: »

No opinion on abortion.

No issue with somebody thinking abortion should be allowed, and vaccination mandatory.

I have an issue with the branding "My Body, My Choice". Totally hypocrisy to use that phrase for abortion and then abandon it later on. I thought the general messaging of that phrase was that each person has control over their own body. Clearly it only refers to one specific issue.

Yes, and without wanting to take up a specific position on abortion, the difference is that vaccination is all about a contagious disease, and not being vaccinated not only exposes you to danger (ok if that's your choice), but it also exposes other people to involuntary danger via greater transmission.

Arguments about contagion are irrelevant to abortion.

is_that_so

melekalikimaka wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/reliability-of-covid-antigen-tests-seen-as-key-issue-as-reopening-continues-1.4560879

Sure but we are not talking about massive testing programmes. They are in use elsewhere and seem to be a useful extra tool and recommended by another expert group. NPHET are just dead set against their use as they don't come up to the perfection of PCR standard. Some are now good enough, especially to perform the tasks proposed.

OwenM

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Data analytics didn't exist when they were studying, if we are talking about statistics and modelling, yes there is expertise but there are no epidemiologists on NPHET. The thing about statistics, you can manipulate them any way you want to get the answer you want, and the modelling produced recently is just to support Holohans opinion.

TheCitizen

Ballynally wrote: »

I think you actually CAN have a discussion about acceptable levels of deaths.
Nobody wants to talk about it but we accept certain death levels all the time.
One example is deaths from influenza.
We could say we have to accept the death levels normally associated w a bad outbreak of influenza or even an epidemic, proceed w vaccinations as rapid as possible, like we are, and let life continue as is.
The lockdown method has reached its ceiling, both financially and health wise.It can no longer be used.
Even halting indoor hospitality will not statistically influence the growth of variants much.
To get back to acceptable death levels: severe influenza outbreak in Ireland 2017/2018. Deaths:255.
You can give that answer to anyone asking and then pose a question back: what would YOU say is an acceptable level of deaths?
They wont have an answer because it seems absurd to them.
They would like to say: 0 but likely realise how stupid that sounds.

You could say the same about driving cars. There’s a certain level of deaths on the roads annually and they try with campaigns to promote safety but I don’t think anyone is suggesting we should ban private motoring because there’s always a few deaths on the roads every year.

Beasty

Threads merged

Russman

JRant wrote: »

Indeed and the claim is that for simplicity sake that's the way they have to model it. Unfortunately, it means any model derived from it is basically like trying to tell what the weather will be like in 2 weeks by putting your finger in the air. Now for an academic study it might be okay to do this but when you're basing real world policy on it then we have serious problems.

I remember early in my career we were trying to model how a piece of equipment would behave in the ocean with 6 degrees of freedom involved. One of the senior members of the team made a comment that stuck with me. He basically said we need to actually put one in the water as the sea won't be long making ****e of the calculations.

Trying to model highly complex scenarios with simple modelling just does not work.

You're right, but probably no government bar maybe a Tory UK or US with Donny in charge, will "put one in the water" when its their population that they're taking a chance with. I'm not for a second saying NPHET are right with their models, personally I can't see their two or three worst case scenarios ever coming to pass, but I'm no expert. I think ultimately a delay of a few weeks will buy us enough time to open after the August bank holiday, certainly well before they have any semblance of a coronapass developed or workable.

paw patrol

melekalikimaka wrote: »

alot of people here seem to know more than professionals... worrying times

I kinda like posts like this as they demonstrate such ignorance.
We should listen to expert opinion but never blindly accept it because it is usually based on a single issue with no concern for secondary impacts.

you have ignored that:

Expert Opinion isn't infallible

We should have a choice to follow that advice - a cost/benefit analysis so to speak - clearly my risk assessment/appetite differs from Dr Tony

NPHET aren't the only experts. Many experts say they are wrong.

Personal freedom - we shouldn't be owned by the state.

Finally, your deference to authority is laughable - they aren't here to save you. they exist to protect the state , you'll be left pissing in the wind if you rely on them. You are responsible for yourself always and it shouldn't be any other way.

But carry on...

Bsharp

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Studying data analytics and the application of computer modelling to test probability of scenarios in the real world are two very different things.

In our company we have model development and model application. There's crossover but it's recognised as two different skillsets.

elefant

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Philip Nolan is a professional, and chair of the modelling group, and what he tweeted about over 70s vulnerability to serious illness after vaccination is completely misleading.

You can say what you want about needing to trust in what experts are saying, and I've been staunchly of this view for the past year and half too, but you can't deny complete falsehoods staring you in the face.

If this falsehood didn't, in fact, factor into data used in the forecast NHPET made, then they should clarify that. Though this would then lead me to ask why he tweeted it in the first place.

JDxtra

bucketybuck wrote: »

You'd need to be pretty ****ing slow in the head to believe that this latest delay is only for 2 weeks.

Yes, when the Government say "2 weeks" it's just deferring an actual answer. Like a parent saying "we'll see" when a child asks for something (i.e. no).

That's how they are treating us.

is_that_so

TheCitizen wrote: »

How do you mean government ain’t the problem here? It’s their call at the end of the day. They’re being cautious, overly cautious by the looks of it. They remember that they got a lashback for opening up prior to Christmas. It looks like they were over optimistic then and over cautious now.

The 2-3 week pause is not the problem here, it's the uncertainty of July 19 and way beyond that with the ridiculous modelling data. NPHET deciding government policy is also a factor but the government will get the blame for not planning something they were never going to do.