Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

_Kaiser_

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

He's at it now on Pat Kenny.

This super spreading new virus that the vaccines aren't as effective against.

More spin and lies.

This new "expert group" he's setting up sounds like another nice job for the boys to me.

Pat asks him about Iveagh Gardens and what was learned.. Donnelly stumbles and says that he hasn't seen the feedback and it had nothing to do with health??!

Muppet!

funnydoggy

Stephen "Trampoline" Donnelly on the radio with Pat "COVID plume" Kenny. No questioning the lies there, just disinformation and hysteria.

Balanced as f*ck.

moonage

Wibbs wrote: »

Aye. Never ascribe conspiracy to something when incompetence is by far the more likely.

If a small number of countries had over-reacted to this relatively mild virus, then it could be put down to incompetence.

When the global response (with a few exceptions) has been so uniform and draconian and anti-scientific then incompetence can be ruled out. There's something very sinister behind it all.

Almost all countries have a very similar response, although Ireland is sticking very closely to the script more that most. We may moan about Tony Holohan and M Martin and we may envy other countries who are more "sensible" but the whole world is going to hell in a handcart.

Theboinkmaster

Leftwaffe wrote: »

That would be funny if it wasn’t so serious!

Anyone know if they can go ahead? Read they are off but source flimsy.

we've had one cancelled by the priest.

ridiculous - can have 50 people at a wedding but not 5 at a christening.

Jinglejangle69

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This new "expert group" he's setting up sounds like another nice job for the boys to me.

Pat asks him about Iveagh Gardens and what was learned.. Donnelly stumbles and says that he hasn't seen the feedback and it had nothing to do with health??!

Muppet!

Yep another group.

Clueless.

Ash.J.Williams

Sleeper12 wrote: »

I remember a statue being moved in the back of a truck. It fell on a guy as they unloaded it. Didn't die though.

was it a statue of the blessed virgin mary?

eye witnesses said it fell but began to float and gently landed on the person with out hurting him

Jinglejangle69

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This new "expert group" he's setting up sounds like another nice job for the boys to me.

Pat asks him about Iveagh Gardens and what was learned.. Donnelly stumbles and says that he hasn't seen the feedback and it had nothing to do with health??!

Muppet!

Yep another group.

Clueless.

Ferris_Bueller

suicide_circus wrote: »

In response to Stephen Donnelly's assertion that NPHET have warned that "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland" is approaching, I cannot do better than to quote this twitter user;


"if this is true then how come we aren't heading straight back to level 5? Surely just keeping indoor dining closed won't stop "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland". I'm no virologist or statistician, but I'd say there is a high chance that statement is bollocks"


https://mobile.twitter.com/CoachRoche_/status/1410338908831899650

Yours truly :P thought my header photo might be a giveaway!

JRant

Russman wrote: »

You're right, but probably no government bar maybe a Tory UK or US with Donny in charge, will "put one in the water" when its their population that they're taking a chance with. I'm not for a second saying NPHET are right with their models, personally I can't see their two or three worst case scenarios ever coming to pass, but I'm no expert. I think ultimately a delay of a few weeks will buy us enough time to open after the August bank holiday, certainly well before they have any semblance of a coronapass developed or workable.

The rest of the EU are moving on from this. We seems stuck in 2020 mode. So, it's not just the UK and US.

323

Deleted User wrote: »

Next election, remember this and bury the government and all of these privileged, government-funded institutions who tried to deny you your livelihood.

Indeed, one would hope people will remember, but if the last 30/40 years is anything to go by they won't. Turkeys voting for Christmas comes to mind.
Anyway, burying the government will have no effect on the government-funded institutions/NGO who are really in charge, as the last 14 months have shown.

Richard Hillman

Might as well just wait for the updated vaccine since the NPHET Government don't seem to rate these ones. And sure it's not like vaccine uptake will be linked to lifting of restrictions.

the kelt

thebaz wrote: »

amongst all the scaremongering and over-exaggeration in the past week , surely this tops it from our Minister of Health Stephen Donnellly speaking to his own parliamentary part :

“the biggest hurricane that has ever hit Ireland is coming”.

Really , bigger than March 2020 when we did not know what we were dealing with , had no vaccine, no hope of vaccine , never mind the vulnerable and over half our population being vaccinated . Why does no one call out such hysterics and rubbish, tell us the truth why restrictions are needed not made up fear inducing drivel to continually shock the nation .

This is it!!

We went from a dark cloud on the horizon "the biggest hurricane that has ever hit Ireland"

All on Monday.

No sign of this before, government given no inkling, everything looking positive and boom the biggest hurrican ever comes out of nowhere.

And we are just to trust this forecast and model without question?

suicide_circus

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Yep another group.

Clueless.

The Covid Umbrella National Team (of) Scientists.

JRant

elefant wrote: »

Philip Nolan is a professional, and chair of the modelling group, and what he tweeted about over 70s vulnerability to serious illness after vaccination is completely misleading.

You can say what you want about needing to trust in what experts are saying, and I've been staunchly of this view for the past year and half too, but you can't deny complete falsehoods staring you in the face.

If this falsehood didn't, in fact, factor into data used in the forecast NHPET made, then they should clarify that. Though this would then lead me to ask why he tweeted it in the first place.

At a minimum he needs to clarify if this error was used in the reporting. An error like that means the rest of the report is in question until proved otherwise.

_Kaiser_

Someone take the shovel away from Donnelly. It's painful at this stage.

Gael23

This makes my blood boil.

So he’s saying we need severe restrictions to protect the 5% of people the vaccines won’t work for
https://www.thejournal.ie/philip-nolan-nphet-modelling-indoor-hospitality-5482332-Jul2021/?fbclid=IwAR3Z4Nv7hKpcA3cGTYB4yUHfmcawFLwT0zk7r002sSEMOBWGHheZBeqiMIk

MrMusician18

the kelt wrote: »

Cant reopen in August, what about the schools going back?

Come September and October ye will have lads playing county finals and out celebrating, look at what happened last year, cant re open then.

Come November, listen we need to have a meaningful Christmas dont we, best not to reopen then, we will see at Christmas.

December, jaysus remember December 2020, we will have a feckin million cases this time around, sure we cant reopen.

The thing is if someone posted this doomsday scenario a month ago i would have just dismissed them but after Monday i dont really know anymore. I mean if Sam Mc Conkey a zero Covid advocate is less pessimistic than NPHET its hard to know what to say??

You must be living under a rock, so I've got great news for you. The country is in fact already almost entirely reopen.

stephenjmcd

CruelSummer wrote: »

So therefore they can have people inside in said pubs until 3am come Autumn time. They’re not closed down and told they wouldn’t even be advised to reopen come end of September. They’re also not using a vaccine passport system. If you want to pick apart the finer details of the legislation, be my guest.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0629/1232083-northern-ireland-pubs/

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57644493

Not picking apart anything, you made 2 claims, 1) Nightclubs in NI were open 2) Pubs were open until 3am now

I'm just saying neither of those statements are true, that's all. Nothing more nothing less.

eggy81

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Talk about hyperbole. Keeping restaurants serving the vaccinated indoors for a while will not kill the economy ffs.

The economy and every single other facet of life that this government and tbf every recent government have any impact on are in complete and utter turmoil, from the housing situation to health to child care and education. The whole country is a fecking shambles including the economy. Should we just continue to ignore every poor decision. They are getting paid a kings ransom for nothing while giving themselves pay increases and laughing at the rest of us. They don’t represent us in any way whatsoever. No positive change in any aspect of life in the country in donkeys years. And only the prospect of things getting worse after the way this has been handled.

TomSweeney

TomTomTim wrote: »

If this does happen, I'd be seriously concerned about our freedoms in the long run, as there's no possible way to end this based on the incredibly high standards they've set for freedom. They can constantly use fear and fear alone to keep us in our place.

This was my point earlier, essentially all this just points to this never ending.

As even when we do hit 100% vaccinated, the people that were vaccinated earliest will need their boosters -so never really a fully vaccinated population it's a never ending cycle.

I'd love someone to explain why I am wrong here ...

keano_afc

This is car crash stuff. Pat is well in bed with the Covid fanatics, but even he's exposing Donnelly for the clown he is.

B2021M

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Just because I dislike the man so much and have such a low opinion of him, which I appreciate is not shared by all - I reckon TH resented greatly having his scheduled meeting moved forward from Thursday to Monday to accommodate the alcohol-facilitators of Ireland and was minded to shut down even the rational possibility of a three-week delay and switched to ‘we were never going to recommend you can open until the end of September anyway - so there’ (*not THs actual words).

Yes and not only that....were they going to wait until thursday to land these new shocking projections on govt?

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

This makes my blood boil.

So he’s saying we need severe restrictions to protect the 5% of people the vaccines won’t work for
https://www.thejournal.ie/philip-nolan-nphet-modelling-indoor-hospitality-5482332-Jul2021/?fbclid=IwAR3Z4Nv7hKpcA3cGTYB4yUHfmcawFLwT0zk7r002sSEMOBWGHheZBeqiMIk

I don't think people care, in the same way we don't obsess about the people with the flu each year that are shuttled to hospital.

This is no way to live.

MrMusician18

Gael23 wrote: »

This makes my blood boil.

So he’s saying we need severe restrictions to protect the 5% of people the vaccines won’t work for
https://www.thejournal.ie/philip-nolan-nphet-modelling-indoor-hospitality-5482332-Jul2021/?fbclid=IwAR3Z4Nv7hKpcA3cGTYB4yUHfmcawFLwT0zk7r002sSEMOBWGHheZBeqiMIk

Is he? Looks to me he's saying that indoor hospitality should remain restricted/controlled. That's hardly that severe.

eggy81

gozunda wrote: »

He did? Link please



Nope. The fact is the Nphet model couldn't have included the latest NIAC changes with regard to additional vaccines being made to the under 40s - because the NIAC recommendations were only announced on the day the finalised Nphet briefing letter was sent (including details of the completed model) by the CMO to the Government

So it was based on out of date info then?

JRant

Klonker wrote: »

Thanks JRant. And in your example of 3,500 at risk of serious disease, wouldn't they just have the same chance of severe disease as an unvaccinated person? Say for example if an unvaccinated over 70s has a 20% chance of severe disease if they catch covid, then the likelyhood is if 3,500 are susceptible to severe disease, only about 700 will get severe disease? As the baseline measurement of 95% protection isn't against getting severe disease, its against the chances of an unvaccinated person in the same circumstances getting severe disease.

Like he's not lying when he says susceptible but it gives the impression all that 5% will get severe disease.

Does that make sense what I've outlined above? If so the worst case scenario seems impossible even if every single person on the island caught covid between now and September!

That's more or less it in a nutshell. It's a comparison of the risk of infection in the unvaccinated population. So, if the risk was 1/2% of serious infection in an unvaccinated population and the vaccine has a 95% efficacy then, yes, it greatly reduces the chances of a bad outcome. Especially when you factor in that not everyone will catch the virus to start with. So the strike rate, prevalence of disease, and efficacy are super important when determining an outcome.

the kelt

eggy81 wrote: »

So it was based on out of date info then?

Lads dont waste your time responding, not worth it when ye look at the rubbish thats been spouted on this and the last thread, trust me.

TomSweeney

daydorunrun wrote: »

I guess this is the crux of NPHET’s concern-

https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-50-of-delta-variant-cases-vaccinated-severe-2021-6

Israel says the Delta variant is infecting vaccinated people, representing as many as 50% of new cases. But they're less severe.

Should be the main talking point....

gozunda

pc7 wrote: »

Sorry if it’s been answered but did the model include those who already had covid? Because with that figure, those vaccinated and those getting vaccines in coming weeks I still can’t see how they could believe their model in any way.

The model produced 5 different scenarios from a 'worst case scenario' (ie extreme) to a 'benign' scenario which is in or about where we are 0now. And yes the model did include those already vaccinated etc. The ECDC has also produced a model based on the spread of the Delta variant warning of a potential event based on the numbers unvaccinated and those with just one dose being highlighted as being most at risk. See. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

Snooker Loopy

I'm not a fan of Donnelly but given the sheer amount of hurlers on the ditch and their infallible belief in their own blowhard infallibility, I can't help but have some sympathy for him.