Relaxation of restrictions Part II

gozunda · 03-05-2020 11:28PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Sweden's unemployment rate as result of pandemic is 10%. ours is 22% according to minister for finance. Ours will go down to 14% September onwards, assuming no 2nd lockdown, Sweden's will go down to the usual 6%.

The experiment here, given that death rates are identical in both countries, is going to be how long we can lock our barbers at home for. 4 months. 5?

Not reading the thread?

Already commented on that.

You do realise that unemployment projections are just a small part of any possible scenario yeah? Quoting Swedens Cental Bank this article details

Quote:In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario , GDP could contract by 9.7% ...

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier in April that Germany and the U.K. will see their economies contract by 6.5% and 7% this year, respectively. France is expected to see a 7.2% contraction, Spain an 8% contraction and for Italy to see its economy shrink 9.1%.

Sweden's neighbors Finland and Denmark, which also imposed lockdowns, are also expected to see their economies contract by 6% and 6.5%, respectively...

Sweden's supply chains and businesses have been damaged by the pandemic and the Riksbank warned that "many companies will be hit hard and many people will lose their jobs," although it decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at zero this week.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

easypazz · 03-05-2020 11:46PM

gozunda wrote: »

Not reading the thread?

Already commented on that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

Swedens economy in tatters.

That is the rubbish you came out with.

The article you linked to is going for a v shaped recovery in Sweden.

You are so clueless you link to articles that undermine your arguments.

gozunda · 03-05-2020 11:56PM

easypazz wrote: »

Swedens economy in tatters.
That is the rubbish you came out with.
The article you linked to is going for a v shaped recovery in Sweden. You are so clueless you link to articles that undermine your arguments.

Tatters yes. As much as a whole host of other European countries. And yes all these countries economies including our own will recover in time.

It blows the rubbish you were pushing sbout Sweden doing better than everyone else - out of the water.

And yes on the projections from Swedens Cental Bank this article details

in the first scenario ...gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario , GDP could contract by 9.7% ...

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier in April that Germany and the U.K. will see their economies contract by 6.5% and 7% this year, respectively. France is expected to see a 7.2% contraction, Spain an 8% contraction and for Italy to see its economy shrink 9.1%.

Sweden's neighbors Finland and Denmark, which also imposed lockdowns, are also expected to see their economies contract by 6% and 6.5%, respectively...

Sweden's supply chains and businesses have been damaged by the pandemic and the Riksbank warned that "many companies will be hit hard and many people will lose their jobs," although it decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at zero this week.

To quote yourself

'Rubbish' 'clueless' 'undermine your own arguments'

boetstark · 03-05-2020 11:59PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Whats wrong with having high infection rate if ICU isnt overwhelmed? Are we in the business of 100% protecting our population from flu, coronavirus, should we preach to people how to live their lives to avoid getting HIV too?

Life is risk. If you want anything else, you need to stay indoors. If you are very old and have weak immune system, you need to isolate, unfortunately. If you have underlying conditions you need to isolate.

Why would you isolate if you are healthy? everybody in this forum, damn even the country know that % of healthy people are easily 95%, perhaps even 98%. If we open tkmaxx this isnt going to go to 50% infection rates..... people maintain social distancing with strangers. They have done so a long time now, how often do you walk right onto the person and expect them to move out of your way?

Just wondering are you on the wind up or genuinely slow. I mostly just have a read but feel I must respond to this.
Yes you are correct that the vast majority of population are in the fit and healthy bracket.
But c19 is hitting people that are fit and healthy. It is putting them in hospital and in cases on ventilators. Nobody is sure but this can cause permanent lung dam ge. I personally know 3 cases of fit relatively young people that contracted c29. No underlying issues. All three hospitalised, 2 in icu, and 1 of them is on critical list. It's Russian roulette with this virus and I don't fancy playing a risk game with mine or my families lives.

recyclebin · 04-05-2020 12:01AM

The 5km travel limit is a joke. It covers half of Dublin, probably a population of half a million. Yet myself or fiancee can't travel to see our families, we would be travelling from small town to farms in very rural locations. We're both going home to see our families in the next few weeks to do "essential" farm work. At least we have excuses if stopped whereas many unfortunate people in same scenario might not.

FintanMcluskey · 04-05-2020 12:04AM

boetstark wrote: »

But c19 is hitting people that are fit and healthy. It is putting them in hospital and in cases on ventilators.

Nah thats rubbish.

Its no more dangerous to that cohort than influenza

gozunda · 04-05-2020 12:15AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yes exactly my attitude. Its completely selfish to isolate the healthy to protect the minority of the vulnerable, especially so, when isolating the healthy wont have any effect on what happens in nursing homes

That's an attitude alright. A selfish attitude imo. Though I reckon I see where you are coming from. You simply dont understand anything about this pandemic.

So why the need for restrictions for everyone? Because just about anyone can get Covid-19 and all those can spread it. Hence the restictions to control the spread of the disease and to stop health services being overwhelmed - like Italy.

Nursing homes across the world are unfortunately badly affected - not just Ireland.

The reasons for this is because the people living in such settings cannot socially isolate and have vulnerable people who live alongside the healthy. But more importantly nursing homes cannot be completely isolated from the wider community. Nurses, staff, catering is all required to keep these homes happens. The staff and other personal live in the wider community.

Get rid of those restrictions and the infection rate will climb and more people in the community will increasingly bring the disease to those in such settings .

Restrictions are there for these exact and very good reasons. That some refuse to acknowledge that is neither here nor there.

boetstark · 04-05-2020 12:24AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Nah thats rubbish.

Its no more dangerous to that cohort than influenza

Ah will you ever feck off, are you calling me a liar??

FintanMcluskey · 04-05-2020 12:44AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ah will you ever feck off, are you calling me a liar??

No I never suggested you were a liar, I said Covid is no more dangerous to the under 70 than influenza or any seasonal respiratory illness. Thats fact does not make you a liar

FintanMcluskey · 04-05-2020 12:49AM

gozunda wrote: »

That's an attitude alright. A selfish attitude imo. Though I reckon I see your were you are coming from. You simply dont understand anything about this pandemic.

So why the need for restrictions for everyone? Because just about anyone can get Covid-19 and all those can spread it. Hence the restictions to control the spread of the disease and to stop health services being overwhelmed - like Italy.

Nursing homes across the world are unfortunately badly affected - not just Ireland.

The reasons for this is because the people living in such settings cannot socially isolate and have vulnerable people who live alongside the healthy. But more importantly nursing homes cannot be completely isolated from the wider community. Nurses, staff, catering is all required to keep these homes happens. The staff and other personal live in the wider community.

Get rid of those restrictions and the infection rate will climb and more people in the community will increasingly bring the disease to those in such settings .

Restrictions are there for these exact and very good reasons. That some refuse to acknowledge that is neither here nor there.

The first thing I will say is judging by the time put into your posts you need to relax.
You have used Italy as an example. Northern Italy suffered where 10m people were over 65 in densely populated areas.
This proves restrictions are not required for all scenarios as proved unequivocally in Sweden.
Anyhow I am now on my second crate of beer so I apologise if my post sounds like yours

Tell me how · 04-05-2020 01:58AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It appears Ireland has. It wouldn't be so if the persons who assumed control were transparent and gave detailed targets to meet, "as low as possible" was a response to a direct question to Tony H. Isn't that some guff of an answer from a guy who has assumed total control.
The lack if transparency also exists between Tony, Leo and Simon and the minister's. The document published Friday which will seperate families and remove liberties for 6 months was released so late on Friday the ministers couldn't debate over its functionality.
The media loving immunologist's and doctor's have by now embarrassed themselves enough with utter bulls##t models and projections of 120k and above dead in Ireland. The platform they have used needs to be removed week. They have had to much effect with the inaccurate lies and self importance they have been spreading. People have been lead to believe that the restrictions have prevented 120k dying in Ireland which is utter rubbish.

From this week on I want every lying goon removed from the TV and the business minister (who hasnt got any airtime for some bizzare reason) sat down with every economist they can drag out of a cave to inform us about whats ahead.
If those economist suggest a famine will strike Ireland this Winter, its no less responsible then suggesting Covid will kill 120k in Ireland with no evidence to back up an absurd claim.

You've no lack of confidence in your own opinion anyway, I'll give you that.

FintanMcluskey · 04-05-2020 02:26AM

Tell me how wrote: »

You've no lack of confidence in your own opinion anyway, I'll give you that.

Haha, trust me, confidence was never absent, weather it was backed up or not &#55357;&#56841;

mille100piedi · 04-05-2020 03:43AM

My husband is Polish and is freaking out, he lived during the communist time and he told me Ireland start to look like Poland during the communism. I am having a very bad feeling too..I think the restriction are too much. My life didnt really changed, I am disabled and not going out much anyway, but I am really worry about the future of this country, I come from a place that was very close to a communist country so I have experienced this directly too. I feel very vulnerable and I am so worry and I think about this all the time. I didn't like Leo speech, I don't care about the letter he received from Jessica a wheelchair user, I was very disappointed when I saw the plan ahead and now I understand why he prefer to talk about Jessica instead of the future of the country. Also what the new normal mean? I am freaking out too, I wish tomorrow waking up and realize it was just a nightmare

Quantum Erasure · 04-05-2020 03:58AM

04-05-2020 04:07AM

I live in a "Communist" country and everything except inward flights has gone back to normal now. ie. Life is like any other country, but with masks. There is no point in worrying about democracies like Ireland changing.

It's a bit weird to equate social distancing rules with communism. It's a health issue, not a political coup.

mille100piedi · 04-05-2020 04:17AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I live in a "Communist" country and everything except inward flights has gone back to normal now. ie. Life is like any other country, but with masks. There is no point in worrying about democracies like Ireland changing.

It's a bit weird to equate social distancing rules with communism. It's a health issue, not a political coup.

I really hope you are right. Thank you I feel better now

Emmersonn · 04-05-2020 07:11AM

Not what anyone wants.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-03/emerging-from-lockdown-46-days-in-the-house-was-enough

zerosugarbuzz · 04-05-2020 07:18AM

Emmersonn wrote: »

Not what anyone wants.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-03/emerging-from-lockdown-46-days-in-the-house-was-enough

You have to expect a peak when the restrictions are lifted. The healthy people who should have by rights had Covid and got over it will now catch it and get over it. The vulnerable and elderly will have to continue to be ultra careful.

zerosugarbuzz · 04-05-2020 07:20AM

Emmersonn wrote: »

Not what anyone wants.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-03/emerging-from-lockdown-46-days-in-the-house-was-enough

You have to expect a peak when the restrictions are lifted. The healthy people who should have by rights had Covid and got over it will now catch it and get over it. The vulnerable and elderly will have to continue to be ultra careful.

JTMan · 04-05-2020 07:38AM

splashuum wrote: »

I have looked at the roadmap and think I’ve gathered a few things from it. They’re trusting to keep workers working from home where possible, although it seems large scale offices may go back in phase 4/5. (phase 4 July 20/ phase 5 August 10th)
Does that seem correct?

Not phase 4. Phase 4 clearly states that those who can work from home have to continue to work from home.

Phase 5 is confusing. The official detailed document here says "Phased “return to onsite working arrangement" can begin BUT the summary version, that has been tweeted by the Taoiseach and advertised in national newspapers says that remote working must continue for all that can in phase 5 too.

Hence, earliest return date, for those that are working from home, is 10 August 2020 if the detailed document is correct but reality is that it could be September or October.

drunkmonkey · 04-05-2020 07:50AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s been mentioned on here a few times. I know 3 people that were hospitalised in December with flu.

I’m not exactly old (34) and don’t recall anyone in other years been hospitalised that I know. There was definitely a bad dose going around over winter. Whether it was Covid or just bad flu I don’t know.

So all the people thinking they had it at Christmas could be right if the French report is correct, most people I know were sick, thankfully didn't get it in this house but a lot of households were flattened.
It's time for Dr Cillian de Gascun to go recheck his swabs from December.

https://twitter.com/hpscireland/status/1205162612759113728?s=20

easypazz · 04-05-2020 08:35AM

gozunda wrote: »

If you get it - you risk passing it on to others.

That is a stunnng breakthrough, have you told the WHO yet?

easypazz · 04-05-2020 08:53AM

Double post

lawrencesummers · 04-05-2020 08:56AM

easypazz wrote: »

That is a stunnng breakthrough, have you told the WHO yet?

Are they even still together?

Penfailed · 04-05-2020 09:00AM

easypazz wrote: »

That is a stunnng breakthrough, have you told the WHO yet?

There's really no need for posts like this ^^^

Do you get some enjoyment out of condescension?

JRant · 04-05-2020 09:24AM

Looking at the numbers again this morning and it's even more encouraging than I thought. 60,000 tests carried out last week, which is over 33% of all tests carried out to date (160,000). The percentage of positive results was still well below 5% growth rate day on day. This was mainly nursing homes as well where they know they already have clusters. They plan on beginning residential care settings this week. Numbers down to 93 in ICU and continuing to fall.

Disappointed to hear they are only now planning on using the private hospitals for non-covid treatments. They really should have been sweating those assets this whole time as we are paying top dollar for using them.

All in all, I think we should be out of this long before August. A new government should be formed in a couple of weeks and will be made up of TDs that actually represent constituents rather than the likes of Ross and Zappone. There is absolutely no way we see the types of restrictions outlined in the roadmap until mid August, especially considering it's costing at least 600 million extra a week so far, not including the 6.5 billion package announced on Friday.

easypazz · 04-05-2020 09:28AM

JRant wrote: »

Looking at the numbers again this morning and it's even more encouraging than I thought. 60,000 tests carried out last week, which is over 33% of all tests carried out to date (160,000). The percentage of positive results was still well below 5% growth rate day on day. This was mainly nursing homes as well where they know they already have clusters. They plan on beginning residential care settings this week. Numbers down to 93 in ICU and continuing to fall.

Disappointed to hear they are only now planning on using the private hospitals for non-covid treatments. They really should have been sweating those assets this whole time as we are paying top dollar for using them.

All in all, I think we should be out of this long before August. A new government should be formed in a couple of weeks and will be made up of TDs that actually represent constituents rather than the likes of Ross and Zappone. There is absolutely no way we see the types of restrictions outlined in the roadmap until mid August, especially considering it's costing at least 600 million extra a week so far, not including the 6.5 billion package announced on Friday.

Positive talk like that won't go down well with some around here.

kippy · 04-05-2020 09:33AM

JRant wrote: »

Looking at the numbers again this morning and it's even more encouraging than I thought. 60,000 tests carried out last week, which is over 33% of all tests carried out to date (160,000). The percentage of positive results was still well below 5% growth rate day on day. This was mainly nursing homes as well where they know they already have clusters. They plan on beginning residential care settings this week. Numbers down to 93 in ICU and continuing to fall.

Disappointed to hear they are only now planning on using the private hospitals for non-covid treatments. They really should have been sweating those assets this whole time as we are paying top dollar for using them.

All in all, I think we should be out of this long before August. A new government should be formed in a couple of weeks and will be made up of TDs that actually represent constituents rather than the likes of Ross and Zappone. There is absolutely no way we see the types of restrictions outlined in the roadmap until mid August, especially considering it's costing at least 600 million extra a week so far, not including the 6.5 billion package announced on Friday.

Agreed on all of the above. Especially the use of the hospital facilities.
It would be great to get through the staged plan ahead of time.

gozunda · 04-05-2020 09:47AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The first thing I will say is judging by the time put into your posts you need to relax.You have used Italy as an example. Northern Italy suffered where 10m people were over 65 in densely populated areas. This proves restrictions are not required for all scenarios as proved unequivocally in Sweden.Anyhow I am now on my second crate of beer so I apologise if my post sounds like yours

And again that post much like your others is lityle more than a **** sandwich of cheap shots and bluster.

You can ignore the fact that the Covid-19 poses a significant risk to human life and public health and is highly contagious all you like. Thankfully such denial of the facts doesn't change anything, other than highlight the incredible stupidity of that type of ignorance.

I suggest you knock of the alcohol. Its doing you no favours.

GDK_11 · 04-05-2020 09:58AM

I’m sticking to the government advice and happy to do so, it’s not ideal but I know it could be a lot worse.

With regards to getting through the phases quicker than expected, how will this work with social distancing? That is going to be here for a long time, creche, work, pubs, public transport, hairdressers etc will all require some form of it and surely they only operate on significantly reduced numbers. On that basis I assume “normality” is a long way off yet.

I hope I’m wrong as no one (well not many) want this to continue long term, but I guess time will tell.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Comments