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CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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    #9302
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Worldometers
    A study by the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt (an epicenter of the outbreak in Germany) and found that 2% of the population was currently infected and 14% were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15% of the town have been infected with the virus [source]

    If these findings are correct, Germany’s actual death rate could be as low as 0.22% (2,607 deaths / (2,607 cases that have resulted in death + 1,172,000 cases that have resulted in recovery)). Assuming 14% of the German population of 83,700,000 (1,172,000 people) have been infected and have recovered.

    This is interesting because it pretty much disproves the theory that coronavirus has been pandemic in Europe for months. If 1 out of the 7 people are currently infected, it would make it incredibly unlikely that coronavirus has been circulating in europe long before late february/March

    I think that the statements are a bit bold, I'm sure the figure of 15% infection rate will vary very very widely depending on the cities and towns in question. Particularly given that this is an epicentre town then youd think figures would be lower elsewhere. A mortality rate of 0.2% only holds true if nobody else in Germany dies, which of course wont be the case


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    #9303
    cloudatlas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,709 ✭✭✭cloudatlas


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Unproven as of yet. There was talk of a correlation but different countries have had different bcg programs. The UK had a program so you'd think their numbers would be down.

    The only thing proven to work so far is a substantial lockdown. The UK have discovered that a bit late.

    Um the republic have a program too, I got it as a baby.


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    #9304
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,324 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    Its good for 10 to 20 years depending on the research you read, with 15 apparently the most agreed on figure, not knowing your age can't say.

    Would 15 be the average or the median?

    Asking for a friend...


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    #9305
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Westernyelp wrote: »
    Those symptoms could have been a hundred different things.

    Flu like symptoms with breathing difficulties, very likely it was the virus.


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    #9306
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Wombatman wrote: »
    If we can complete 3500 tests per day and have a positivity rate of 13% our new case per day ceiling is 455.

    Maybe we should be seeing this growth (graph below - very nice DaCor thanks) but we never will because we can only produce a limited number of positives a day.

    We really have no idea where we stand right now as far as curve flatting is concerned.
    Under the new definitions today testing, we we're picking up 15% positive rate. If we had 480 cases confirmed in Ireland for today, that would mean 3,200 tests done.

    We can see the curve flattening by looking at the hospitalisation curve.


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    #9307
    Chosenwan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2 ✭Chosenwan


    fritzelly wrote: »
    The app is literally something any competent programmer could code up in a few days - was first talked about weeks ago and said to be ready within a week or so...

    They could have easily licensed the S Korean software - something that just works and damn well

    Also didn't need consent - they could have added anonymous data showing confirmed cases in your area within a hundred meters or so - you know with the intention of alerting people that there are confirmed cases nearby so be extra careful when out in public

    Isn't apple and.google cooperating on it?


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    #9308
    speckle
    Registered Users Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Would 15 be the average or the median?

    Asking for a friend...

    haha still giggling with some outliers it has lasted up to 60years...


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    #9309
    Westernyelp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,372 ✭✭✭Westernyelp


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Flu like symptoms with breathing difficulties, very likely it was the virus.

    You said they tested negative so I would say it was very likely it was not the virus. unless you know more than the prevailing medical opinion that you are not sharing?


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    #9310
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    I'm not sure if there are clinical trials within Ireland related to covid 19.

    Clinical trails are starting in St Vincent's University Hospital in Dublin and University Hospital Galway


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    #9311
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,324 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Chosenwan wrote: »
    Isn't apple and.google cooperating on it?

    By the time it's ready it will all be over
    It need not be anything more than an heat map - plenty of companies out there have code to do it. You just need to enter the numbers - it's really simple stuff.


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    #9312
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    fritzelly wrote: »
    The app is literally something any competent programmer could code up in a few days - was first talked about weeks ago and said to be ready within a week or so...

    They could have easily licensed the S Korean software - something that just works and damn well

    Also didn't need consent - they could have added anonymous data showing confirmed cases in your area within a hundred meters or so - you know with the intention of alerting people that there are confirmed cases nearby so be extra careful when out in public

    I thought the idea of this software was that they could backtrack a few days and tell you if a known case was close to you, at the time they were probably shedding virus.


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    #9313
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    wakka12 wrote: »
    New York has an unbelievably high positive testing rate

    Of the 418,000 tests performed 172,000 were positive . 41% positive. I cant think of any country in the world that has anywhere close to level of tests returning positve

    EDIT. Okay actually Spain is higher at 44% positive ...and France not that far behind at 37% positive

    UK are testing at 42% positive on daily tests.


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    #9314
    MipMap
    Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Would 15 be the average or the median?

    Asking for a friend...


    Is your friend George Lee?


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    #9315
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Feck. Somebody I went to primary school with who is living in the UK has coronavirus. Late 30s. In a coma. No underlying condition. Was in a public-facing job. I’m really shocked.

    The capriciousness of this virus is scary.


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    #9316
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/simulation-research-shows-covid-19-can-spread-farther-by-those-exercising-outdoors

    Belgian and Dutch researchers prove that joggers and those exercising outdoors do in fact carry risk of infecting others. A slipstream created by the person running forward can carry respiratory droplets up to 65ft behind them. The faster the person is running, the farther the droplets will fly behind them. Rsearchers advise not walking/running directly behind a person running. The more humid the environment the longer the droplets will stay in the air.


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    #9317
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Westernyelp wrote: »
    You said they tested negative so I would say it was very likely it was not the virus. unless you know more than the prevailing medical opinion that you are not sharing?

    It was a probably a false negative. It does happen with these tests.


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    #9318
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    How many times did George Lee ask that stupid question on the figures? Tony should have said sorry, go back and have a good think there


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    #9319
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,479 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    J. Marston wrote: »
    Watching Contagion. Why am I doing this to myself?

    I watched Contagion a few years ago and found it to be a good movie, but kinda boring and filled with technobabble.

    I watched it again the other night and was hanging on every word!


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    #9320
    Chosenwan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2 ✭Chosenwan


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    I thought the idea of this software was that they could backtrack a few days and tell you if a known case was close to you, at the time they were probably shedding virus.

    The thing.google and apple are working.on involves Bluetooth


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    #9321
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    cloudatlas wrote: »
    I’ve had the BCG vaccine in fact most of us have. Do we need a top up?
    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Unproven as of yet. There was talk of a correlation but different countries have had different bcg programs. The UK had a program so you'd think their numbers would be down.

    The only thing proven to work so far is a substantial lockdown. The UK have discovered that a bit late.
    cloudatlas wrote: »
    Um the republic have a program too, I got it as a baby.

    Australia is trialing BCG vaccine in their health care workers already.


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    #9322
    briancoolcat
    Registered Users Posts: 92 ✭✭briancoolcat


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    He's a deranged lunatic. Yeah it used to be funny but it's a little bit frightening now. The really sad thing is his polling numbers are the highest they've ever been. Don't be surprised if he nukes China I'm deadly serious.

    That's the unknown with him in charge unfortunately. All of us here on boards are arguing over the numbers and percentages and statistics and can only do our best to stick to what we are being advised to do to slow this virus down. It won't amount to a hill of beans if Trump decides to start a nuclear war with China. Im watching what is happening in the US right now like a hawk because what happens there in the next few months decides our fate in little old Ireland.


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    #9323
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    MD1990 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1248699275355328512

    I just can't be watching any more of Trump. LOL at this nonsense and claptrap from that American tinker. America is so fcuked.


  • Options
    #9324
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Cody montana wrote: »
    USA
    Coronavirus Cases:
    500,879

    Deaths:
    18,637

    Not sure new case numbers are that relevant any more as countries have differet methodologies. The UK has conducted limited testing for example.

    More accurate is to take the generally accepted death rate of 1% for larger countries and extrapolate to get the likely figure of cases. So for the UK its likely the have at least 1 million cases, Italy close to 2 million and the US close to 2 million.


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    #9325
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKCN21S15X

    South Korea is reporting reinfections, although for some reason they're calling it a "reactivation". Maybe because it's the same infection flaring up rather than a new one.

    Still, troubling development if it can restart itself even when you feel better. If this proves to be an issue, it will have implications for restriction of movement even when people are recovered.


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    #9326
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    For the day that's in it....

    134.png

    ;)


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    #9327
    Caquas
    Registered Users Posts: 1,338 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    I don't think tests are all that accurate. I know someone who came back from holidays and definitely had symptoms and got a negative result.

    This is a major problem- the tests are not very reliable
    Early reports from China suggest its sensitivity, meaning how well it is able to return positive results when the virus is present, is somewhere around 60 to 70 percent.

    The picture is improving but the problem will remain
    https://www.france24.com/en/20200410-how-false-negatives-are-complicating-covid-19-testing


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    #9328
    Minnie Snuggles
    Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Minnie Snuggles


    Westernyelp wrote: »
    You said they tested negative so I would say it was very likely it was not the virus. unless you know more than the prevailing medical opinion that you are not sharing?

    I maybe wrong, but a negative test simply means when the test was taken, the virus was not present at that point in time, it could very well mean that the person has recovered.


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    #9329
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭Christy42


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Not sure new case numbers are that relevant any more as countries have differet methodologies. The UK has conducted limited testing for example.

    More accurate is to take the generally accepted death rate of 1% for larger countries and extrapolate to get the likely figure of cases. So for the UK its likely the have at least 1 million cases, Italy close to 2 million and the US close to 2 million.

    The death rate won't be accurate either. Someone dies without a test done? Do you want to prevent a test on a living person to ensure you get the stats right for dead?

    Many places have far higher rates of deaths coming through than usual and some are only recording hospital deaths. Some record nursing homes etc. So even that is a bit of an iffy metric.


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    #9330
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Australia is trialing BCG vaccine in their health care workers already.

    If it works for them great. Not seeing any correlation personally. The UK had mass vaccination up to 15 years ago so you'd expect lower death rates among the elderly and middle aged which is predominately those who die from cv19.


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    #9331
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Christy42 wrote: »
    The death rate won't be accurate either. Someone dies without a test done? Do you want to prevent a test on a living person to ensure you get the stats right for dead?

    Many places have far higher rates of deaths coming through than usual and some are only recording hospital deaths. Some record nursing homes etc. So even that is a bit of an iffy metric.

    It is probably decently accurate in countries less overrun at the moment but yeh death rates in west european countries seem to be underestimated by at least a third if only counting hospital deaths


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