CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

wakka12

Ace2007 wrote: »

Just on this - when you say cases dropped - is that a numerical number or a % growth?

Like growth is more than likely always going to drop, as there are only so many tests you can do a day, and if large numbers have it - you'll never get over x%

for example if you had 100,000 confirmed cases and Italy could only give results for 10,000 a day - if 20% of them got it - overall it's only a 2% increases, but if they could do 50,000 cases, then maybe overall increase would be 10%

Yeh I get what you mean but I mean numerical number . Italy, Germany, Spain all reporting generally a lot lower daily totals now than they did over the past few weeks

cloudatlas

cloudatlas wrote: »

I’ve had the BCG vaccine in fact most of us have. Do we need a top up?

Its good for 10 to 20 years depending on the research you read, with 15 apparently the most agreed on figure, not knowing your age can't say.

MipMap

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

well, its the difference between 14,000 or 16,000 real cases...

Actually to them they are not so concerned about these asymptomatic or mild cases because their over riding concern (rightly) is the fear that the health service will become overwhelmed. It won't with mild or asymptomatic
cases cos they never even get to be seen or tested.
They do, however, get to spread the virus to others.
The numbers confirmed are important only if everyone who presents with symptoms is tested. If there is a backlog or delays or the criteria set are incorrect then confirmed numbers become meaningless.

In Sweden and Germany they are getting off lightly because they have excellent health services and this makes a huge difference to the death rates.

Funsterdelux

New Home wrote: »

Has anyone ever tested him for Mad Cow? It's the only thing that would actually made sense. Either that, or he's Nero reincarnate.

You'd probably get more sense from a mad cow.

Wolf359f

mosii wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X

I HOPE NOT

What's the chances they were all false positives initially and then actually got infected?

tobefrank321

cloudatlas wrote: »

I’ve had the BCG vaccine in fact most of us have. Do we need a top up?

Unproven as of yet. There was talk of a correlation but different countries have had different bcg programs. The UK had a program so you'd think their numbers would be down.

The only thing proven to work so far is a substantial lockdown. The UK have discovered that a bit late.

New Home

Wolf359f wrote: »

What's the chances they were all false positives initially and then actually got infected?

If they were asymptomatic, maybe. But otherwise...

Wolf359f

MipMap wrote: »

In Sweden and Germany they are getting off lightly because they have excellent health services and this makes a huge difference to the death rates.

Sweden is at 8.9% fatality rate.... That's getting off lightly?

Caquas

eddie73 wrote: »

Thats a bit harsh. The plan is to survive this. Keep the numbers low for as long as possible before going back to brass tax, in as organised fashion as u can under the circumstances.

What would u suggest?

(I know u r not leading the country so u don't need to say 'It's not my job to.....'.)

Harsh but fair, I think.

“As long as possible” will destroy this country. Even three months might do irreparable damage to our economy. But at least you are sketching a plan, not just emoting about “rebirth and renewal”.

It’s not good enough for the Taoiseach to say

All we can do is take one day at a time.

What phase of the crisis does the Government think we are in? The beginning? The middle? Will 5 May be “the end of the beginning” (a more apt Churchillian quote than Leo’s wildly inappropriate reference to “the few”)

Wolf359f

New Home wrote: »

If they were asymptomatic, maybe. But otherwise...

South Korea have tested half a million, so if there are false positives, even very small, it could be that.

Away With The Fairies

mosii wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X

I HOPE NOT

Is any other country reporting reinfection or reactivation?

tobefrank321

owlbethere wrote: »

If there's any Irish labs who wants anyone for testing or to behave like a guinea pig for them, or whatever, I'm willing to do it. If I could get a low dose of this in a controlled setting, I will do it. It might be a way out from getting a bad dose of this.

I'm not sure if there are clinical trials within Ireland related to covid 19.

Internationally some limited trials of anti viral drugs have shown promise. Others including one testing the drug Trump kept promoting had to be abandonded after several participants had severe side effects.

If a low viral load could guarantee a mild form followed by immunity, many would sign up for it.

wakka12

https://nos.nl/artikel/2330040-sterfte-corona-waarschijnlijk-twee-keer-hoger-blijkt-weer-uit-cbs-cijfers.html

Netherlands reports the deaths of 5100 citizens in one week. It is the most citizens to die in one week since the famine of January of 1945 after the war when 4500 people died in a week. (though Netherlands population was only 9 million then, 17 m today). Several municipalities of northern Netherlands are reporting mortality rates about seven times above average

Wombatman

The Department of Health has said to date there has been 14,000 samples returned from German labs, of which 1,035 were positive.

OK. Sounds grand. But wait...........

The results of those tests have been coming in over recent days and according to the Chief medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan about 13% of the most recent batch returned from Germany tested positive.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0410/1129884-covid-19-cases-deaths/

OK. So 1035 positive out of 14000 is positivity rate of 7.5% not 13%.

What am I missing?

Worldometers has us at 8,089 cases and having completed 53,000 tests.

I think the cases is right but why so much mystery around how many tests are being performed? This figure should be released each day along with the confirmed cases.

Journal.ie reported that we had completed 42484 test as of Monday night.

I have no idea if this includes some of the German 14,000. Let's assume not.

So if we take Monday nights figure and about 1200 completed tests a day, for the next 4 days till now, and the German numbers, we have about 60,000 completed tests.

So I'm estimating a positivity rate of 13% for everything so far. (8089 positives out of 60000 tests).

Has anybody got any better data than this?

How many tests did we complete each day?
How many tests have we completed to date?
When we are told the new numbers of cases each day, why aren't we told how many tests were completed to get that number?

They are saying now we have the capacity to complete 4500 tests per day. I don't believe this so let's knock off 1000.

If we can complete 3500 tests per day and have a positivity rate of 13% our new case per day ceiling is 455.

Maybe we should be seeing this growth (graph below - very nice DaCor thanks) but we never will because we can only produce a limited number of positives a day.

We really have no idea where we stand right now as far as curve flatting is concerned. The slow, limited testing is also preventing follow on contact tracing. What's more we have no idea how many of the completed test are repeat test on existing patients for discharge purposes.



All this should all have been made clear by Tony and the boys. You could see the journalists are starting to cop on, as of tonight, and at last are beginning to challenge the the "we are on top of this", "everything is awesome" mantra.

speckle

cloudatlas wrote: »

I’ve had the BCG vaccine in fact most of us have. Do we need a top up?

They stopped it in 2015 in Ireland.

Ace2007

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeh I get what you mean but I mean numerical number . Italy, Germany, Spain all reporting generally a lot lower daily totals now than they did over the past few weeks

Awe that's good, I've kinda of turned off listening to the news from Europe, because well it's general not going to be good news - need reductions week on week, and not day on day to really know how it's going.

Even in Ireland, everyone knows (or should know), that the number of confirmed cases at this stage is just pie in the sky, the real issue is just how busy hospitals/ICU are, and how nursing homes are coping.

I know we include nursing home deaths in our figures, but maybe there is a logic of not including them, as you get an idea then how where exactly the deaths are occurring. Although breaking it down may have negative impact on families of love ones in nursing homes etc.

I feel in general we are in a good place, but I think it's very early days and talk about trends and peaks again - it's pie in the sky talk - restrictions are going to be around in some sharp and form until 2021 imo. I do hope thought that some concession are made regarding those in nursing homes - be it for instance 1 nominated person can only visit a resident - this will limited the numbers going into nursing homes, and maybe even test said nominated person on entry for temperature. Just physically seeing a loved one will help on so many levels mentally.

Cody montana

USA
Coronavirus Cases:
500,879

Deaths:
18,637

MipMap

Wolf359f wrote: »

Sweden is at 8.9% fatality rate.... That's getting off lightly?

It's 11 million with 870 deaths that's 0.0079%
And they are doing nothing much in the way of lockdowns

Rob A. Bank

Funsterdelux wrote: »

You'd probably get more sense from a mad cow.

The USA have topped 500,000 cases tonight... with Dr. Trump MD (Me Doctor) in charge



.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1248287038580891649

A graphic worth playing.

Quantum Erasure

Wombatman wrote: »

OK. Sounds grand. But wait...........



https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0410/1129884-covid-19-cases-deaths/

OK. So 1035 positive out of 14000 is positivity rate of 7.5% not 13%.

What am I missing?

13% of the most recent batch returned from Germany tested positive.

Ace2007

MipMap wrote: »

It's 11 million with 870 deaths that's 0.0079%
And they are doing nothing much in the way of lockdowns

is it 11 million infected?

Morality rate is;: Number who died because of virus/Total number infected

threeball

The US looks set to be the first country to cross 2000 deaths a day. 1946 with a number of states yet to report.

briancoolcat

BanditLuke wrote: »

There are no words.

It's utterly mind boggling that the leader of the Free world aka Trump is so unimaginably ignorant of the difference between a virus and a bacteria. I used to find his buffoonery a bit comical but considering the seriousness the world is facing now I wouldn't put it past this maniac to decide that a nuclear bomb Will blast it back to whence it came. He frightens me now.

Away With The Fairies

Wolf359f wrote: »

What's the chances they were all false positives initially and then actually got infected?

I don't think tests are all that accurate. I know someone who came back from holidays and definitely had symptoms and got a negative result.

wakka12

New York has an unbelievably high positive testing rate

Of the 418,000 tests performed 172,000 were positive . 41% positive. I cant think of any country in the world that has anywhere close to level of tests returning positve

EDIT. Okay actually Spain is higher at 44% positive ...and France not that far behind at 37% positive

J. Marston

Watching Contagion. Why am I doing this to myself?

Westernyelp

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't think tests are all that accurate. I know someone who came back from holidays and definitely had symptoms and got a negative result.

Those symptoms could have been a hundred different things.

BanditLuke

briancoolcat wrote: »

It's utterly mind boggling that the leader of the Free world aka Trump is so unimaginably ignorant of the difference between a virus and a bacteria. I used to find his buffoonery a bit comical but considering the seriousness the world is facing now I wouldn't put it past this maniac to decide that a nuclear bomb Will blast it back to whence it came. He frightens me now.

He's a deranged lunatic. Yeah it used to be funny but it's a little bit frightening now. The really sad thing is his polling numbers are the highest they've ever been. Don't be surprised if he nukes China I'm deadly serious.

MipMap

J. Marston wrote: »

Watching Contagion. Why am I doing this to myself?

A good movie. Another one is "The Forgotten Fallen" about the Spanish Flu.
And "And the Band Played On" about HIV.

fritzelly

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

The app for contact tracing will more likely never happen here

The app is literally something any competent programmer could code up in a few days - was first talked about weeks ago and said to be ready within a week or so...

They could have easily licensed the S Korean software - something that just works and damn well

Also didn't need consent - they could have added anonymous data showing confirmed cases in your area within a hundred meters or so - you know with the intention of alerting people that there are confirmed cases nearby so be extra careful when out in public