CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Seamai

Hector Savage wrote: »

1500 new cases in Ireland!!! wtaf !! ???

Whats going on ??

Don't even go there. Please.

Wibbs

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Interesting point Wibbs.
When the ratio came out in China, some pointed to smoking.

The western media did, the Chinese didn't so much. They noted the odd finding that while smokers if they did end up in ICU's faired worse, but appeared to not come down with it in the first place, or at least not bad enough to get them to hospital. In the age range of 40 to 60 50+% of Chinese men smoke, yet of those same age ranges presenting to hospital only 13% were smokers. If it was hitting them harder you'd expect to see many more, never mind that smokers are more likely to have cardiovascular illness too*. From what I gather on the Chinese and Italian stats asthmatics were also not particularly hit badly. Again a bit unexpected. Cardiovascular disease seems to be the biggie as far as risks go. I did read on very small sample of British patients in a covid ward and out of 30 something IIRC, only one was underweight, a few were normal weight, the rest, the majority were obese or morbidly obese.

Finding the raw data isn't so easy. The Wuhan stuff is easy enough to find, but they're pretty small sample sizes. No doubt it's because medical staff are so run off their bloody feet they really can't be arsed getting into that just yet and any medical research types who are qualified in medicine are getting stuck in themselves. regional factors are surely at play too. Level of local pollution, Asians not nearly so troubled with obesity as say Americans, or Irish for that matter, so that could be missed, even local genetic population differences too.




*If there's any case here, I wonder is it because smoke being so toxic buggers this particular virus too? Or smokers cough more on a daily basis because their cilia are fecked so move more crap out of the lungs because of their hacking coughs? Smoking is about the worst thing you can do to your health, but like anything there are a tiny few things where it appears to be protective. Ulcerative colitis is one. Smokers almost never get it. Takes the edge off ADHD too.

Ace2007

Gael23 wrote: »

The father of a family friend has been in hospital, dying, the past 10 days with absolutely no visitors. Only this morning they were all sent for as it won’t be long now.
Surely people deserve to be surrounded by loved ones as they approach the end of life no matter what?

People have been posting this for weeks, so that people can learn how serious this **** is.

Everyone should just stop and think, if you have a loved one, imagine now being not allowed to be with that person in the last days/moments of their lives.

Pick up the phone, Skype or Facetime said person you never know what might happen no matter how healthy they are

podgeandrodge

smelly sock wrote: »

It was a loada bollix. All about himself.

well he has to try and match Claire from the shed. RTE heroes!

igCorcaigh

Hector Savage wrote: »

1500 new cases in Ireland!!! wtaf !! ???

Whats going on ??


edit thats what worldometer says, RTE news say 400 ...

I'm confused too. Something about the tests sent to Germany. I don't know...

owlbethere

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I don't know why I care, but here I am asking you to elaborate...

edit: ok, speech by Tubs. No need thanks!

The speech, yes, was incredible,

I fell in love with the Irish scenes for the opening. Scenes of a quite, beautiful Ireland.

As reported earlier, there were 25 further deaths sadly and an additional 480 new cases reported today. Total per below



The r value has been floating between 1.06 to 1.08 for the last 7 days with the average at 1.074.

• 04-Apr 1.077
• 05-Apr 1.085
• 06-Apr 1.074
• 07-Apr 1.064
• 08-Apr 1.064
• 09-Apr 1.082
• 10-Apr 1.073

This is great in one sense in that it is stable and not increasing, but disappointing in another as it should be dropping lower by this stage.



Due to this, my earlier prediction of us breaking the 10k mark on the 17th/18th looks wildly optimistic with that barrier being broken on Wed next (15th) at the current rate with the additional curveball of the German tests still waiting to show up. My guess is once those are added in, we are looking at crossing 10k on Monday 13th.



As such, the graph below should be taken "as-is" because it's likely to be underestimating the impact the German tests are going to have. Once those figures are released, I'll plug them in and update everything.



Lastly, a county by county breakdown based on the rate of infection per 10k population.

To explain this a bit more, with the most recent figures from 8th April calculated against the 2016 population for each of the above counties, the rate of infection for every 10,000 people in each county stacks up like this

County Rate per 10k
Dublin 29
Cavan 20
Westmeath 17
Wicklow 17
Kildare 13
Mayo 12
Offaly 11
Meath 11
Monaghan 10
Longford 10
Kerry 10
Kilkenny 10
Limerick 10
Tipperary 9
Cork 9
Louth 9
Donegal 9
Leitrim 8
Galway 6
Clare 6
Laois 6
Waterford 5
Sligo 5
Roscommon 4
Carlow 3
Wexford 2

Next update Monday or if the German test #'s are confirmed before, whichever comes first

Kermit.de.frog

A very perceptive Obama back in 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBVAnaHxHbM

"Screw all that common sense, let's vote for Trump..."

Quantum Erasure

strange times...


https://twitter.com/bbcstudios/status/1248700082515587078

podgeandrodge

Deleted User wrote: »

As reported earlier, there were 25 further deaths sadly and an additional 480 new cases reported today. Total per below



The r value has been floating between 1.06 to 1.08 for the last 7 days with the average at 1.074.

• 04-Apr 1.077
• 05-Apr 1.085
• 06-Apr 1.074
• 07-Apr 1.064
• 08-Apr 1.064
• 09-Apr 1.082
• 10-Apr 1.073

This is great in one sense in that it is stable and not increasing, but disappointing in another as it should be dropping lower by this stage.



Due to this, my earlier prediction of us breaking the 10k mark on the 17th/18th looks wildly optimistic with that barrier being broken on Wed next (15th) at the current rate with the additional curveball of the German tests still waiting to show up. My guess is once those are added in, we are looking at crossing 10k on Monday 13th.



As such, the graph below should be taken "as-is" because it's likely to be underestimating the impact the German tests are going to have. Once those figures are released, I'll plug them in and update everything.



Lastly, a county by county breakdown based on the rate of infection per 10k population.

To explain this a bit more, with the most recent figures from 8th April calculated against the 2016 population for each of the above counties, the rate of infection for every 10,000 people in each county stacks up like this

County Rate per 10k
Dublin 29
Cavan 20
Westmeath 17
Wicklow 17
Kildare 13
Mayo 12
Offaly 11
Meath 11
Monaghan 10
Longford 10
Kerry 10
Kilkenny 10
Limerick 10
Tipperary 9
Cork 9
Louth 9
Donegal 9
Leitrim 8
Galway 6
Clare 6
Laois 6
Waterford 5
Sligo 5
Roscommon 4
Carlow 3
Wexford 2

Next update Monday or if the German test #'s are confirmed before, whichever comes first

No wonder everyone wanted to get to Wexford FFS!

Hector Savage

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

:rolleyes: Try to keep up or read the news reports. It includes backdated figures from tests in Germany,

Sorry, I'm living in Spain - the epicentre of this ****ing ****.

Very likely the country won't exist in the next few months and ill be dead myself, I wish I could go back to Ireland - linear growth and seems to be well under control.

Funsterdelux

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A very perceptive Obama back in 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBVAnaHxHbM

"Screw all that common sense, let's vote for Trump..."

His predecessor did the same 10 years before that, well someone wrote a speech for him.Bush pandemic link

Hector Savage

Remember everyone


CHINA DID THIS!!!

An Ri rua

KiKi III wrote: »

There was an article in the Irish Times the other day about this. A doctor talking about the lifestyle factors; obesity and smoking but also that women are more likely to go see a doctor early on if something is wrong.

This is mostly well known but the interesting part was she said women seem to just be better at fighting off viruses generally. Could be a survival of the species thing?

No, the female immune system reacts more strongly to viruses than men's. That's my understanding of things. And so, for Coronavirus, men are more susceptible and for something like the Spanish flu, which killed many more young people, females would be more at risk.
Open to correction. But little to do with survival of the fittest. Unless nature intends a human society of hermaphrodites.

caveat emptor

1641 wrote: »

There are three figures given.


7071. This is the total number confirmed up until Wednesday midnight - whether tests were analysed in Germany or in Ireland. The further statistics he gave (median, sex, number admitted to hospital, number admitted to ICU, etc) are all based on this group.


7074. This is the number of cases confirmed by Irish laboritories up until sometime this afternoon. This is the number they have been tracking daily all along.


8089. This is the number of cases confirmed by Irish plus German laboritories up until the same time this afternoon. The 1015 German cases confirmed yesterday and today (ie 8089-7074) represent "historic" infections, ie, probably from two weeks ago or so.


As I understand it anyway.

Thanks for explaining. Makes sense but confusing with all of the caveats. The middle number confuses things and is redundant now with the German results included.

The first number is useful and the last number is useful. Middle one is just a subset of total tests and shouldn’t be reported.

Just to clarify I’m not George lee , I was just as confused however

Nigzcurran

What curve are we trying to flatten, daily cases, overall cases or deaths? Sorry if this is a stupid question

Beasty

expectationlost wrote: »

they gave it yesterday too (if not the day before that aswell)

They did not provide it yesterday. A poster on here suggested the CMO indicated the German figures were included yesterday. They were not in the figures put in the HSE release yesterday. If they were then today's figures would have to be wrong.

They have made that one and only "adjustment" today, but that was only after it was pointed out to the CMO that the figure he was reporting was different to the figure the EU were reporting for Ireland

Wibbs

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A very perceptive Obama back in 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBVAnaHxHbM

"Screw all that common sense, let's vote for Trump..."

No doubt some conspiracy nuts will imagine that just like Bill Gates Obama was up to something nefarious. :rolleyes:

coastwatch

caveat emptor wrote: »

As of Wednesday night? I'm still confused to be honest.

• So 7K doesn't include German results and is up to Wednesday night.
  
• 8K is up to Wednesday night including all the previous tests that were sent to Germany.
  
• or 8k is including all results up until tonight?

Always best to stick to one number going forward.

I think you're obsessing a bit too much over the total case number, that is just history at this stage.
What maters now is the day on day, (or better 7 day rolling average) increase, as that tells how the virus is spreading now.

Gael23

Ace2007 wrote: »

People have been posting this for weeks, so that people can learn how serious this **** is.

Everyone should just stop and think, if you have a loved one, imagine now being not allowed to be with that person in the last days/moments of their lives.

Pick up the phone, Skype or Facetime said person you never know what might happen no matter how healthy they are

I should add the person concerned does not have Covid 19. I get chills when I think what it must feels like facing your mortality alone with nobody. Lose to you within miles.

Wibbs

Hector Savage wrote: »

Very likely the country won't exist in the next few months and ill be dead myself,

Ah jaysus H, don't be thinking like that. You'll be still around to piss the rest of us off and inform and amuse in equal measure.

1641

An Ri rua wrote: »

No, the female immune system reacts more strongly to viruses than men's. That's my understanding of things. And so, for Coronavirus, men are more susceptible and for something like the Spanish fly, which killed many more young people, females would be more at risk.
Open to correction. But little to do with survival of the fittest. Unless nature intends a human society of hermaphrodites.

It is because some important genes associated with the immune system are situated on the X chromosome. Women have two X chromosomes and males just one (XY). If there are any "inefficiencies" in a gene on a woman's dominant X chromosome she has the other one as a backup. Males do not.

Quantum Erasure

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A very perceptive Obama back in 2014

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/intelligence/491712-us-intelligence-warned-in-november-that-virus-spreading

U.S. intelligence officials warned in November that the coronavirus spreading in China’s Hubei region could become a “cataclysmic event,” ABC News reported Wednesday.

Seamai

An Ri rua wrote: »

No, the female immune system reacts more strongly to viruses than men's. That's my understanding of things. And so, for Coronavirus, men are more susceptible and for something like the Spanish flu, which killed many more young people, females would be more at risk.
Open to correction. But little to do with survival of the fittest. Unless nature intends a human society of hermaphrodites.

Spanish fly? I see you fixed that.

ChikiChiki

Gael23 wrote: »

The father of a family friend has been in hospital, dying, the past 10 days with absolutely no visitors. Only this morning they were all sent for as it won’t be long now.
Surely people deserve to be surrounded by loved ones as they approach the end of life no matter what?

A couple of hours ago you said when the restriction extension was announced

"Thats too much. People won't take it lying down"

So what exactly do want out of this?

The extension of restriction measures are in place to negate or at least minimise the occurrence of these exact scenarios.

1641

caveat emptor wrote: »

Thanks for explaining. Makes sense but confusing with all of the caveats. The middle number confuses things and is redundant now with the German results included.

The first number is useful and the last number is useful. Middle one is just a subset of total tests and shouldn’t be reported.

Just to clarify I’m not George lee , I was just as confused however

Yeah - but Holohan said that the most important number for them from the tracking perspective is the middle number. This is the one they have been tracking to see daily rises or falls. We public are probably more focussed on totals.

boardise

syngindub wrote: »

Trump has a big decision coming up. Any ideas what it is?

To change to a 13 degree driver ?

Cork Boy 53

Hector Savage wrote: »

Remember everyone


CHINA DID THIS!!!

So what exactly do you expect us to do about it now?

speckle

Hector Savage wrote: »

Sorry, I'm living in Spain - the epicentre of this ****ing ****.

Very likely the country won't exist in the next few months and ill be dead myself, I wish I could go back to Ireland - linear growth and seems to be well under control.

we just got a backlog of cases that tested positive that we sent to germany back. c500ish.
My thoughts with you over there. big hugs from Ireland.

KiKi III

1641 wrote: »

It is because some important genes associated with the immune system are situated on the X chromosome. Women have two X chromosomes and males just one (XY). If there are any "inefficiencies" in a gene on a woman's dominant X chromosome she has the other one as a backup. Males do not.

Yeah my survival of the species theory was premised on the idea that men can impregnate an almost unlimited number of women, but women can only have a certain amount of babies- so as the more scarce resource they might have evolved better out of necessity?

I have a pretty limited understanding of the whole thing so very open to correction.