Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

CptMackey · 07-12-2018 01:18PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

we import UK milk from NI. A lot of fresh milk sold in the country is produced the six counties. Free state milk is generally dried for use in baby formula and other users that require powdered milk.

What's free state milk? The free state is gone you know .

10000maniacs · 07-12-2018 01:25PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

You need to paraphrase the assumptions as well. Because there are other options for supply than just Britain. It seems to me that the assumption is that we continue to import food and food ingredients from Britain. That would be unbelievably stupid.

You mean importing for example Unilever/ Kraft/ Coca Cola/Nestle products directly from the EU?
Do you realize there is a huge premium in doing that? The ESRI are obviously factoring that in. And what about fresh produce from the UK? We don't manufacture all of our fresh produce. Not even close. It will take nearly three days for a Brexit-Buster ship to sail from Ireland to Rotterdam and nearly three days back. That more or less screws fresh produce from the EU.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 01:42PM

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

Professor Moriarty · 07-12-2018 01:46PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

In that context, 65% of medicine imported into Ireland comes through the UK.

FrancieBrady · 07-12-2018 01:47PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

It is not being dismissed 'out of hand' though. It will be an issue but a temporary issue as the market reacts/adjusts. And it will of course be adjusting for the better - removing our dependence on what has become a volatile and unpredictable political neighbour.

prawnsambo · 07-12-2018 01:50PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

You mean importing for example Unilever/ Kraft/ Coca Cola/Nestle products directly from the EU?
Do you realize there is a huge premium in doing that? The ESRI are obviously factoring that in. And what about fresh produce from the UK? We don't manufacture all of our fresh produce. Not even close. It will take nearly three days for a Brexit-Buster ship to sail from Ireland to Rotterdam and nearly three days back. That more or less screws fresh produce from the EU.

There isn't the kind of premium that you illustrate in your original post. And the transit time by ship from (say) Roscoff is under 24 hours. The transit time from Zeebrugge is 36 hours. Oh, and we have our own Coca-Cola bottlers here.

blanch152 · 07-12-2018 01:51PM

CptMackey wrote: »

What's free state milk? The free state is gone you know .

The reference to free state milk must be to the cartons given to schoolchildren?

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 01:55PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is not being dismissed 'out of hand' though. It will be an issue but a temporary issue as the market reacts/adjusts. And it will of course be adjusting for the better - removing our dependence on what has become a volatile and unpredictable political neighbour.

Shortages may indeed be temporary, but the higher prices will be permanent.

blanch152 · 07-12-2018 01:56PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

I think you are failing to take into account the substitution effect.

Lays replacing Walkers as the imported crisp of choice etc.

There will be increases due to the cost of transportation increasing but the substitution effect, and the alternative sourcing of produce will mitigate most of the effect of the import taxes.

If a €2 product from the UK gets hit with a 50% import tax to cost €3, it is more likely to be replaced by a €2.10 product from Germany or France, which only costs more because of the transport costs.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 01:58PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

There isn't the kind of premium that you illustrate in your original post. And the transit time by ship from (say) Roscoff is under 24 hours. The transit time from Zeebrugge is 36 hours. Oh, and we have our own Coca-Cola bottlers here.

I'm fairly sure the last remaining coca cola bottling plant on the island is in Lisburn.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 02:02PM

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you are failing to take into account the substitution effect.

Lays replacing Walkers as the imported crisp of choice etc.

There will be increases due to the cost of transportation increasing but the substitution effect, and the alternative sourcing of produce will mitigate most of the effect of the import taxes.

If a €2 product from the UK gets hit with a 50% import tax to cost €3, it is more likely to be replaced by a €2.10 product from Germany or France, which only costs more because of the transport costs.

So the 5% rise in the price of the numbers you've pulled out of your backside is permanent or temporary?

As I've argued, and the experts agree, in the hard Brexit event there will be temporary shortages of some foodstuffs and a permanent increase in price.

listermint · 07-12-2018 02:06PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You'd have to ask then why do we use UK suppliers in the first instance at all? Convenience? Price? Inertia? If wager that it's mostly price driven and that when Irish importers have looked to the continent they have always found it more expensive. Brexit doesn't change that, it just makes the UK more expensive.

You wouldnt have to ask it at all.

Historical relationships. Its not rocket science...

listermint · 07-12-2018 02:08PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm fairly sure the last remaining coca cola bottling plant on the island is in Lisburn.

We will just source from Europe. This isnt really rocket science the increase in throughput from our southern ports is already up with new vessels coming online.

These are permanent changes that will hurt the UK , its ports , jobs and its manufacturing permanently.

Remember here who is in the Single Market and Customs union and who wont be.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 02:10PM

listermint wrote: »

You wouldnt have to ask it at all.

Historical relationships. Its not rocket science...

We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now.

Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 02:11PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In that context, 65% of medicine imported into Ireland comes through the UK.

This is seriously mitigated by a government decision a year or so ago to join Beneluxa, a group formed by the Benelux countries and Austria to pool their buying power and cooperate on drugs and medicines supply.

See details below:

http://www.beneluxa.org

It's both Brexit proofing and more importantly it's reducing the cost of drugs to the HSE.

We're fully part of it since June 2018.

listermint · 07-12-2018 02:11PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Shortages may indeed be temporary, but the higher prices will be permanent.

You are pulling prices out of your arse *to be fair.

No one knows what the price of a product will be from Europe. neither do you so stop with the guesses.

You are being told that new routes will circumvent the UK. That is factual. That is what we are discussing

listermint · 07-12-2018 02:13PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now.

Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.

No its simply not.

Do you work in any Irish Firm ? They use the UK market because of historical relationships, language , ease of access and all of the above.

Why go search for another market if its effort. However with Government supports they will develop with assistance, both relationship and language to move into those import and export markets.

That is what will happen that is what hasnt happened in the past because it was not convenient to do so. It will be forced to do so now.

blanch152 · 07-12-2018 02:14PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

So the 5% rise in the price of the numbers you've pulled out of your backside is permanent or temporary?

As I've argued, and the experts agree, in the hard Brexit event there will be shortages of some foodstuffs and a permanent increase in price.

I accept that there will be shortages of some foodstuffs and some increases in price. That happens today too.

It isn't as apparent in big supermarkets, because they re-arrange space, but shortages do occur. A lot of it is in fresh food where out-of-season fruit and vegetables are out-of-stock more often at certain times of the year, because the supermarkets prefer to be out of stock (and their captive customers pick something else), than to increase the price.

Will be price increases be permanent? We don't know. How about this scenario? UK comes quickly to its senses, agrees a free trade deal, but currency has collapsed and made imports from the UK cheaper, thus pushing down prices to the Irish consumer?

Economic studies are always limited, because they are based on assumptions. If there is a hard Brexit, if the UK permanently sticks to WTO rules, if consumers refuse to accept EU alternatives to their UK favourites, then there will be shortages and permanent increases. Fully agree, except that I expect some of those assumptions to change and mitigate the effects.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 02:16PM

listermint wrote: »

You are pulling prices out of your arse *to be fair.

No one knows what the price of a product will be from Europe. neither do you so stop with the guesses.

You are being told that new routes will circumvent the UK. That is factual. That is what we are discussing

I'm not the one claiming that the market is currently operating inefficiently and that switching to continental suppliers over UK ones won't change product availability in the short term and price stability with respect to today from the short to medium term

For posters that put so much store in experts, there is no issue dismissing them when it doesn't for the narrative.

Funny that, I thought we were more sophisticated than to be taken in by magical thinking.:rolleyes:

listermint · 07-12-2018 02:18PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm not the one claiming that the market is currently operating inefficiently and that switching to continental suppliers over UK ones won't change product availability in the short term and price stability with respect to today from the short to medium term

For posters that put so much store in experts, there is no issue dismissing them when it doesn't for the narrative.

Funny that, I thought we were more sophisticated than to be taken in by magical thinking.:rolleyes:

What are you on about ?

Abysmal response.

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 02:20PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now.

Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.

We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement.

Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged.

We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 02:23PM

listermint wrote: »

No its simply not.

Do you work in any Irish Firm ? They use the UK market because of historical relationships, language , ease of access and all of the above.

Why go search for another market if its effort. However with Government supports they will develop with assistance, both relationship and language to move into those import and export markets.

That is what will happen that is what hasnt happened in the past because it was not convenient to do so. It will be forced to do so now.

So you're saying that the irish market is operating inefficiently and is paying a premium essentially because of the laziness of it's companies?

Please share the names of the specific markets these companies operates in so I can set up a company to undercut them with my continental suppliers.

Oh, see where your argument falls down?

listermint · 07-12-2018 02:25PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

So you're saying that the irish market is operating inefficiently and is paying a premium essentially because of the laziness of it's companies?

Please share the names of the specific markets these companies operates in so I can set up a company to undercut them with my continental suppliers.

Oh, see where your argument falls down?

No,

YOU said the irish market is operating inefficiently.

I said that the Irish market hasnt gone to European market in largesse due to historical relationships.

its YOUR assertion that we cannot get same/similar deals from Continental providers as we do in the UK. YOUR assertion that they are worse deals there.

Yours, dont put words in my mouth. See where your argument falls down?

This is you

"if the continent had the same deals then we would have gone there instead"

- Nonsense.

Tell me how · 07-12-2018 02:27PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement.

Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged.

We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.

This is true.
But, we are deeply intertwined with the UK for at least 3 reasons.

Material and goods flow (in both directions) over the border to NI.
Produce which we sell to the UK Market.
The path which our produce takes via the UK and on to Europe.

I would be afraid though that we will still see a very negative impact from Brexit and even leaving that aside, the popular opinions in the UK may lead them to promote exacting some form of revenge on us for what they see as an aggressive position as they have tried to negotiate a deal.

I fear that Simon Coveney's and Leo Varadkar's words that they are a close and valued friend will be drowned out by the Pritti Patels and Boris Johnson's of their parliament who are of the view that we are being deliberately obstructionist.

J Mysterio · 07-12-2018 02:35PM

Just in case anyone hasn't had a good laugh/ cry today:

"David Davis says the pound crashing after a no-deal Brexit would be “not a bad thing” – and insists “fear” will force the EU into further compromise"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-pound-crash-david-davis-eu-renegotiation-compromise-a8671356.html

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 02:45PM

There's very little you can do about Irish-bashing Tories. They've always existed and they probably always will. They simply see us as an annoyance or they've a genuine hatred of us.

I certainly wouldn't be in any rush to bend over backwards to apologise for our defence of our economic interests or for our right to exist just because it's frustrating a few Tories.

In the long run the UK is going to have to start behaving sensibly again. This stuff can only go on so long until the markets start to become wary of political instability and impending chaos. There's been an enormous amount leeway given to the UK to come up with something sensible and I think many investors were genuinely assuming that this period of chaos was just a glitch that would resolve itself. That hasn't been the case.

10000maniacs · 07-12-2018 02:53PM

Tell me how wrote: »

This is true.
But, we are deeply intertwined with the UK for at least 3 reasons.

Material and goods flow (in both directions) over the border to NI.
Produce which we sell to the UK Market.
The path which our produce takes via the UK and on to Europe.

I would be afraid though that we will still see a very negative impact from Brexit and even leaving that aside, the popular opinions in the UK may lead them to promote exacting some form of revenge on us for what they see as an aggressive position as they have tried to negotiate a deal.

I fear that Simon Coveney's and Leo Varadkar's words that they are a close and valued friend will be drowned out by the Pritti Patels and Boris Johnson's of their parliament who are of the view that we are being deliberately obstructionist.

I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?

murphaph · 07-12-2018 02:54PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Can be overcome with stickers

Yep. If you buy any American peanut butter in the "specialty" section of a German supermarket the nutritional information is on a sticker. Often in fact in smaller markets like Hungary, Slovakia etc. you will find the product has the name and basic description on the front in English and on the rear the localisations, not including any English as the product is not actually sold in an English speaking market.

Water John · 07-12-2018 02:55PM

Just to take two products mentioned, cheddar cheese and milk. I we continue to ship these products back and forth with the UK and it has a No Deal Brexit, then the figures put up will happen. But with NDB that is not what will happen. Cheddar cheese is shipped in bulk to the UK and reimported in retail packs. That obviously would stop and thus little or no increase in price.
Milk ATM hops across the border with NI. The main supplier in the ROI that ships from NI is Strathroy. But they also take milk from farmers to NI. again that traffic stops. Strathroy then processes its milk in the ROI as it does some already.
No increase in the litre of milk.
Others doing drinking milk are Aurivo, Arrabawn and Glanbia/Avonmore

BTW what is used for baby formula is whey a byproduct of cheese making. Only some processors do this, Dairygold, Carbery, Tipperary and Glanbia.

josip · 07-12-2018 03:07PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?

Our climate is not suited to growing wheat, too much of that rain you mentioned.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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