Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Professor Moriarty

Here's what Leo said:

It was a very good meeting, it was an opportunity for all of us to put forward ideas that might work, things that might be considered. It really wouldn’t be helpful to go into that sort of detail.
[The threat of a no-deal Brexit] can be withdrawn at any point by the UK should they chose to revoke article 50 or, if that’s a step too far, to extend it to allow us more time, and to allow Britain more time. That’s certainly an option, but my preferred option is to ratify the deal we have.
I don’t think we could agree to anything that would change the content to the treaty, the content to the withdrawal agreement. What we can say is the backstop is not on the table. It needs to be there for a reason.


It's basically a statement of fact couched in helpful and respectful language.

prawnsambo

blanch152 wrote: »

Why have we two threads on the go?

This one should be closed. Getting close to the thread limit. New thread is open.

briany

20silkcut wrote: »

But some of them think no deal is better than what they have.
Some people would love to see the borders close.
They’d also love to see the city of London in chaos.
They’d love to see fat cat business suffering.
They’d be excited by the prospect of chaos.
Anyone see the welsh guy saying that they survived blockades in ww2 ?
Is it 35-40% in favour of no deal in polling.
And the DUP would love a hard border and would be in ecstasy altogether if the British army redeployed in NI.

This is what your dealing with.

Let's not go nuts, here. Northern Ireland has enjoyed two decades of peace and growing prosperity since the GFA, making it a region that tourists and businesses no longer shy away from investing in. Is this not something that the normal people of NI wish very much to protect and continue? If the DUP messes with that; if they're seen to revel in a backslide to violence and polarisation, then their regressive attitude may cost them their position as the voice of NI Unionism.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's basically a statement of fact couched in helpful and respectful language.

The absolute rotter.

See, the brexiteers were right. They can't even leave without the EU trying to be all helpful. Take back our right to not have to listen to anyone but ourselves!

Peregrinus

kowtow wrote: »

And - even if there is a second referendum which I personally doubt - I cannot see how it can be put without including the option for no deal.

The problem is that whilst seemingly nobody can find a majority for any particular way forward, there is only one option which has been explicitly rejected by the people in a vote (and also by Parliament) and that is the option to Remain.

This was true in 2016, and may still be true now (in the sense that in a further referendum "Remain" might still not attract a 50% vote.

But, in a rich irony, of the various options that are avalable or suggested - Remain, no-deal Brexit, Norway+, renegotiated Brexit under a different Tory, renegotiated Brexit under Labour, etc. - remain is probably the most popular. In a full menu referendum it would not secure a majority but it would probably secure more votes than any other option.

In this situation the only way to generate a majority for any option is to eliminate some options, and simply deny people the possibility of voting for them by not having them on the ballot paper. For example, some suggest a referendum between no-deal Brexit and May's deal brexit, forcing the electorate to choose one of these even though "remain" is almost certainly more popular than either of them. This is hard to defend on democratic grounds. It would also have the bizarre result that the form of Brexit that the UK would pursue would in fact be chosen by Remainers.

You could run a ranked-choice referendum in which you offered the full menu and invited voters to rank the options according to preference. You would them progressively elminate the least popular option and redistribute the votes for that option according to the next preference until one option secured more than 50% of the vote. This would be the option commanding the broadest assent across the electorate. In theory this is impeccably democratic, produces a certain result and does not split the leaver vote by offering a multiplicity of leave options but only one remain option. Unfortunately its a system which the British rejected in a referendum a few years back for their parliamentary elections, so they would probably view it with grave suspicion. It also invites voters to express a much more sophisticated and nuanced choide thant they are normally allowed to, and this could cause much confusion, and suspicion over the validity of the mandate obtained.

lawred2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here's what Leo said:

It was a very good meeting, it was an opportunity for all of us to put forward ideas that might work, things that might be considered. It really wouldn’t be helpful to go into that sort of detail.
[The threat of a no-deal Brexit] can be withdrawn at any point by the UK should they chose to revoke article 50 or, if that’s a step too far, to extend it to allow us more time, and to allow Britain more time. That’s certainly an option, but my preferred option is to ratify the deal we have.
I don’t think we could agree to anything that would change the content to the treaty, the content to the withdrawal agreement. What we can say is the backstop is not on the table. It needs to be there for a reason.


It's basically a statement of fact couched in helpful and respectful language.

I think Leo and Simon have proven themselves as very capable politicians and diplomats in the last few years

But obviously from a Brexiteer's point of view - those uppity Paddies should know their place...

MrMusician18

Former commission president Barrosso made a few interesting tweets imploring flexibility from the EU wrt the backstop tonight.

I wonder what the game is here, is he putting feelers out, voicing genuine concern from those within the commission who have no voice, or just an irrelevant opining out aloud of a has been?

Laois_Man

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Former commission president Barrosso made a few interesting tweets imploring flexibility from the EU wrt the backstop tonight.

I wonder what the game is here, is he putting feelers out, voicing genuine concern from those within the commission who have no voice, or just an irrelevant opining out aloud of a has been?

Irrelevant!

All EU member states have to sign up to it - and Ireland won't!

funkey_monkey

So what does every consider to be Irelands payback to the EU for this support?
Will payback be required?

briany

funkey_monkey wrote: »

So what does every consider to be Irelands payback to the EU for this support?
Will payback be required?

Sure, if you believe the EU to be the geo-political equivalent of Don Corleone.

ancapailldorcha

funkey_monkey wrote: »

So what does every consider to be Irelands payback to the EU for this support?
Will payback be required?

Why would payback be required? The EU is a union. It's in the entity's name. Unions are supposed to represent their members. Ireland pays its dues and gets the benefits.

robinph

Peregrinus wrote: »

You could run a ranked-choice referendum in which you offered the full menu and invited voters to rank the options according to preference. You would them progressively elminate the least popular option and redistribute the votes for that option according to the next preference until one option secured more than 50% of the vote. This would be the option commanding the broadest assent across the electorate. In theory this is impeccably democratic, produces a certain result and does not split the leaver vote by offering a multiplicity of leave options but only one remain option. Unfortunately its a system which the British rejected in a referendum a few years back for their parliamentary elections, so they would probably view it with grave suspicion. It also invites voters to express a much more sophisticated and nuanced choide thant they are normally allowed to, and this could cause much confusion, and suspicion over the validity of the mandate obtained.

You'd need an equal number of options that are remain or remain + as there are leave and leave + or it would just weight the results to guaranteeing a leave, assuming people who tick remain 1 would then tick Mays deal 2.

Personally I wouldn't be ticking any of the leave options in such a poll as it just gives it legitimacy I don't think it deserves. I would be very conflicted on if I'd actually vote in a hard brexit/ Mays deal poll if those were the only options. As far as I'm concerned it really wouldn't matter which of those options as they are both unaceptable.

If there was a choice of No deal, Mays deal, remain, remain and join schengen/ Euro then it would be a fairer poll that people could actually have 2nd preference choices counting on without having to have it go to waste.

20silkcut

briany wrote: »

Let's not go nuts, here. Northern Ireland has enjoyed two decades of peace and growing prosperity since the GFA, making it a region that tourists and businesses no longer shy away from investing in. Is this not something that the normal people of NI wish very much to protect and continue? If the DUP messes with that; if they're seen to revel in a backslide to violence and polarisation, then their regressive attitude may cost them their position as the voice of NI Unionism.

The only logic to hard brexiteer/DUP stance is nihilistic chaos. They hate what their countries have become and are happy enough to pull the whole thing down.

Professor Moriarty

20silkcut wrote: »

The only logic to hard brexiteer/DUP stance is nihilistic chaos. They hate what their countries have become and are happy enough to pull the whole thing down.

Despite the fact that the DUP campaigned for Brexit, if I were a DUP party strategist I would begin to consider the possibility that Remain is best option to guarantee that NI stays fully in the UK.

Kermit.de.frog

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Former commission president Barrosso made a few interesting tweets imploring flexibility from the EU wrt the backstop tonight.

He has taken the concillatory angle since the Brexit vote.

However, can't imagine Irish officials being happy with his interjections at this time specifically. He obviously would still have some influence.

This is precisely what Bertie Ahern warned the Irish govt not to do - i.e don't let this go to the wire.

briany

20silkcut wrote: »

The only logic to hard brexiteer/DUP stance is nihilistic chaos. They hate what their countries have become and are happy enough to pull the whole thing down.

I suppose they're free to try and do that, but their efforts will see push back from the people of Northern Ireland, from both backgrounds, who in no way wish to see Northern Ireland regress. The DUP's drive is largely ideological and this was illustrated by Arlene Foster's recent meeting with NI business leaders over May's proposed deal and her becoming annoyed that said business leaders were actually in favour of it. I think that if the DUP push too hard for their fantasies, reality will push back, and perhaps hard enough to render them a marginal voice of Unionism alongside the TUV.

Mr.Nice Guy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

He has taken the concillatory angle since the Brexit vote.

However, can't imagine Irish officials being happy with his interjections at this time specifically. He obviously would still have some influence.

This is precisely what Bertie Ahern warned the Irish govt not to do - i.e don't let this go to the wire.

Some of the replies to him are something else:

https://twitter.com/LurganSpade/status/1073263067763523585

https://twitter.com/DaveMalcolm11/status/1073272522525868037

EdgeCase

I just saw an attempt on Sky News to draw a comparison between the Catalan independence movement and Brexit.

I'm pretty sure the EU hasn't threatened to arrest Brexit leaders or sent in hardcore police. Nobody is in exile or anything remotely like what has happened to the Catalan independence movement.

They actually recognized the Brexit referendum result before the British Government even triggered Article 50.

All they're looking for is a sane plan to disentangle the two.

fly_agaric

EdgeCase wrote: »

I just saw an attempt on Sky News to draw a comparison between the Catalan independence movement and Brexit.

Could be apt, but not in the way they think.
Both selfish and ignorant (+ pointless?) political crusades pushed forward by lying politicians??

A Dub in Glasgo

fly_agaric wrote: »

Could be apt, but not in the way they think.
Both selfish and ignorant (+ pointless?) political crusades pushed forward by lying politicians??

Nah, don't think so

nice_guy80

I think the Scottish indepence movement is similar to the Catalan movement

Both being blocked by the courts of their federal state

Sand

20silkcut wrote: »

The only logic to hard brexiteer/DUP stance is nihilistic chaos. They hate what their countries have become and are happy enough to pull the whole thing down.

I think that is a large part of the vote by 17.4 million for Brexit - a deep dissatisfaction with the UK, and the apparent powerlessness of their political elite to correct course. Brexit offered a way to 'break out'.

But it would be a mistake to confuse the voters with the ERG who have hijacked that vote. The ERG are not sentimental or nostalgic for 1950s Britain: they would despise the government controls and economic planning of that era. They do not respect any British institution which impedes the hardest possible Brexit. They have extremely radical aims - an almost anarchic Singapore-on-Thames. They're not looking to the past, they are exploiting the opportunity to implement their vision of the future. Chaos suits them.

Rjd2

Even though I am not a fan of Leo, its hilarious how some of the right wing media in the UK have tried to portray him as some out of volatile, aggressive unreasonable Irish nationalist. :pac:

A Dub in Glasgo

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I think the Scottish indepence movement is similar to the Catalan movement

Both being blocked by the courts of their federal state

The Scottish independence referendum is being blocked by the UK Government. The Scottish Parliament has already given the thumbs up to allow the Scottish Government to request the referendum although Sturgeon is waiting for the outcome of the farce that is also known as Brexit before putting it to the Tories. The Tories, of course, have so far said 'No!'

serfboard

Sand wrote: »

The ERG are not sentimental or nostalgic for 1950s Britain: they would despise the government controls and economic planning of that era. They do not respect any British institution which impedes the hardest possible Brexit. They have extremely radical aims - an almost anarchic Singapore-on-Thames. They're not looking to the past, they are exploiting the opportunity to implement their vision of the future. Chaos suits them.

That’s why I think it’s ironic when these people refer to themselves as “Conservative”. They don’t want to “Conserve” anything - they are fundamentalist radicals who want to destroy the welfare state, remove all workers rights and privatise public services (including the NHS), all the while giving tax breaks to (offshore) billionaires.

Junkyard Tom

The weird fetishization of the vote of 'the British people' persists via David Davis on BBCQT. The Brexit referendum was a simple binary question for an incredibly complex process if leave won - anyone who lionises the wisdom of the public on Brexit is either a liar or an idiot.

Enzokk

Seems like May had a good meeting once again.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1073364321370038273

tuxy

Is she still under the impression that the EU is bluffing and will agree to things behind closed doors that they have publicly announced is impossible. What's the deal with constantly having meetings with heads of state of EU countries and trying to go over the head of EU council leaders.

I guess secret meetings and lies to the public is all the Tories know.

Peregrinus

robinph wrote: »

You'd need an equal number of options that are remain or remain + as there are leave and leave + or it would just weight the results to guaranteeing a leave, assuming people who tick remain 1 would then tick Mays deal 2.

What remain voters put as their number 2 choice is irrelevant and can have no influence on the result unless and until "remain" has been eliminated. Remain voters no. 2 preferences won't even be counted, never mind given effect to, until this has happened.

Enzokk

tuxy wrote: »

Is she still under the impression that the EU is bluffing and will agree to things behind closed doors that they have publicly announced is impossible. What's the deal with constantly having meetings with heads of state of EU countries and trying to go over the head of EU council leaders.

I guess secret meetings and lies to the public is all the Tories know.

Who knows her plan but it really seems like it went badly once again for her.


https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073355947966427136

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073358059131551750

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073360217453326337

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073363766484615169