Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

ArmaniJeanss

CelticRambler wrote: »

Meanwhile, Norway says "feck off ..."

I'd be wary of that article to be honest.
Interviewing/quoting one or two politicians and business leaders and extrapolating that their opinion represents government policy is something we laugh at when the Express or Telegraph does it.
So it's plausible that the Norwegians that the Guardian chose have as much relevance as Hans-Olaf Henkel or Ray Bassett who the Express love quoting.

Gerry T

cml387 wrote:

It's transporting goods through the UK is the problem. Not actually getting them (though I imagine the UK would want to hoard their supplies of Marmite and Bovril to keep them going through the hard winter).

Have we not increased our capacity to direct ship product from EU from about 40% to 80% of all imports/exports. This adds some time but there's no customs que' s.
The Celine is one ship I know of but others are either up and running or coming in '19 and '20

listermint

Ireland could change routes,

It would be difficult.

But achievable.

What Britain fails ot understand is that it would be permanent.

Net result Millions of jobs losses in the UK.

Self harm in all its forms.

MrMusician18

robinph wrote: »

The biggest issue for Ireland would be the lorries and boats having to go the long way round from France, or setup a transport corridor along the lines for the Berlin airlift until some bigger/ faster boats and more planes/ runways are sorted out. Other than maybe losing out on fresh Jaffa Cakes I'm not sure Ireland will miss out on much that the UK supplies.

Will just need the manufactures in the rest of Europe to stick stuff in boxes with English writing on rather than it currently being done for the UK market with a bit siphoned off for Ireland...or you all have to learn to read French/ German.

I'm fairly certain that key information (nutrition and ingredients) on labels is regulated and must be written in english to be sold here.

It's not a matter of taking stock from the continent, it needs to be localised for us, which could be a problem if that work is done in the UK at the moment.

J Mysterio

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm fairly certain that key information (nutrition and ingredients) on labels is regulated and must be written in english to be sold here.

It's not a matter of taking stock from the continent, it needs to be localised for us, which could be a problem if that work is done in the UK at the moment.

Can be overcome with stickers

10000maniacs

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely the only products we would have a shortage with would be specialist British products that has British ingredients. Seems that you can find most other products with a different brand name from your friendly German supermarket that would surely be sourced from the continent, right?

There are more than 4,500 products routinely imported from Britain and the price of bread and cereals in the Republic could rise by up to 30 per cent in a hard Brexit scenario, while milk, cheese and egg prices could increase 46 per cent. A range of products – including meat, sugar, confectionery, coffee, tea and mineral water – are likely to increase by 20-30 per cent. The overall effect of these changes would increase the average cost of living for Irish households by 2-3.1 per cent, which, in cash terms. means an annual cost of €892-€1,360 per household.

josip

Has Roslare harbour considered any expansion plans in the event of a hard Brexit?
For non-perishables I understand that it makes more sense to ship directly to the major population centres.
But there must be some types of perishable goods that would make more sense to deliver to Roslare than Dublin Port?
At least for distribution to the bottom half of the country?

EdgeCase

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm fairly certain that key information (nutrition and ingredients) on labels is regulated and must be written in english to be sold here.

It's not a matter of taking stock from the continent, it needs to be localised for us, which could be a problem if that work is done in the UK at the moment.

You can simply apply stickers and also the Irish market isn't so small that you couldn't do a run of a product with localised labels. It's not that big a challenge.

A lot of Benelux products even have labelling in English already.

listermint

10000maniacs wrote: »

There are more than 4,500 products routinely imported from Britain and the price of bread and cereals in the Republic could rise by up to 30 per cent in a hard Brexit scenario, while milk, cheese and egg prices could increase 46 per cent. A range of products – including meat, sugar, confectionery, coffee, tea and mineral water – are likely to increase by 20-30 per cent. The overall effect of these changes would increase the average cost of living for Irish households by 2-3.1 per cent, which, in cash terms. means an annual cost of €892-€1,360 per household.

Im actually not sure where you get your figures from ? Where do we import UK Milk from, besides processing our own stuff over the border.. And Cheese ?

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

The biggest issue for Ireland would be the lorries and boats having to go the long way round from France, or setup a transport corridor along the lines for the Berlin airlift until some bigger/ faster boats and more planes/ runways are sorted out. Other than maybe losing out on fresh Jaffa Cakes I'm not sure Ireland will miss out on much that the UK supplies.

Will just need the manufactures in the rest of Europe to stick stuff in boxes with English writing on rather than it currently being done for the UK market with a bit siphoned off for Ireland...or you all have to learn to read French/ German.

All that's already in hand. The replacement corridor is now designated to be through Zeebrugge, Amsterdam and Rotterdam. The French have stamped their foot a little bit and are promising alternatives as well, including fast tracking Irish goods. A new ship was launched recently to cover the proposed route and is apparently the largest RoRo ferry in the world.

Roughly speaking the alternative routes would add approximately 12 to 24 hours to the landbridge route. The landbridge route could still be an option if there are well organised TIR routes set up at British ports. But it looks like there will be chaos there, so best avoided.

EdgeCase

None of those assumptions on household costs take in the fact that retailers, wholesalers, distributors and customers will switch away from UK suppliers, supply chains and products.

There'll be a short term impact here but I would be very surprised if it lingers.

The market will react and also Irish government and European Union and also neighbouring countries governments are reacting.

Britain's loss is a huge market opportunity for French, Benelux, German, Spanish and all sorts of other suppliers.

Also the big multinational food companies have huge internal supply chains which are capable of drastically reducing Irish exposure to UK chaos.

What Patel is doing is behaving like a Russian politician and threatening large customers for political reasons. That's why Russia isn't a trusted supplier of anything and it looks like that's the kind of relationship that we going to end up with with the UK too.

Is absolutely disastrous for British business, as they're basically now operating in an unstable political environment and that's prepared to weaponise trade.

Who in their right mind would do business with a country like that? Particularly where they are stable and friendly alternatives?

The only reason Russia gets away with it is they're hugely dominant in gas supply and they're are few alternatives. However, even they caused a major change in EU energy policy as energy businesses, national governments seems the EU isn't able to trust that they wouldn't just turn off the tap for political reasons.

Our EU and single market membership is what protects us from the bullying large neighbour problem. It's a very different world from the one when the UK could issue threats like that.

ZeroThreat

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://www-thejournal-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/?amp=1&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHCAFYAYABAQ==#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

Ireland is the most stable country in the world in terms of being able to provide food for its population.
So, they are prepared to cause another famine to get Brexit!
Words fail me.

Hmmm, I'd guess someone of Indian heritage would know quite a bit about the history of famine & food shortages in colonies under British rule.

10000maniacs

listermint wrote: »

Im actually not sure where you get your figures from ? Where do we import UK Milk from, besides processing our own stuff over the border.. And Cheese ?

The ESRI published a research paper earlier this year on this, and I am just paraphrasing that paper.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

The ESRI published a research paper earlier this year on this, and I am just paraphrasing that paper.

You need to paraphrase the assumptions as well. Because there are other options for supply than just Britain. It seems to me that the assumption is that we continue to import food and food ingredients from Britain. That would be unbelievably stupid.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

Im actually not sure where you get your figures from ? Where do we import UK Milk from, besides processing our own stuff over the border.. And Cheese ?

we import UK milk from NI. A lot of fresh milk sold in the country is produced the six counties. Free state milk is generally dried for use in baby formula and other users that require powdered milk.

MrMusician18

EdgeCase wrote: »

None of those assumptions on household costs take in the fact that retailers, wholesalers, distributors and customers will switch away from UK suppliers, supply chains and products.

There'll be a short term impact here but I would be very surprised if it lingers.

The market will react and also Irish government and European Union and also neighbouring countries governments are reacting.

You'd have to ask then why do we use UK suppliers in the first instance at all? Convenience? Price? Inertia? If wager that it's mostly price driven and that when Irish importers have looked to the continent they have always found it more expensive. Brexit doesn't change that, it just makes the UK more expensive.

Hurrache

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd be wary of that article to be honest.
Interviewing/quoting one or two politicians and business leaders and extrapolating that their opinion represents government policy is something we laugh at when the Express or Telegraph does it.
So it's plausible that the Norwegians that the Guardian chose have as much relevance as Hans-Olaf Henkel or Ray Bassett who the Express love quoting.

I read the letter a day or two ago, so it's been in the ether before the Guardian story.

Skelet0n

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Hmmm, I'd guess someone of Indian heritage would know quite a bit about the history of famine & food shortages in colonies under British rule.

Her family were functionaries of the British government in Uganda. Very much more collaborators than victims of any famine.

EdgeCase

Proximity, familiarity and inertia largely.

The UK is removing the proximity factor which renders them much less competitive as a supplier.

You'd be surprised at how many retailers really don't look very far beyond British supply chains.

Ireland's actually never really bothered to make good use is eurozone membership in this area either. Buying in Euro is actually good for price stability here.

You'll have a changed environment after Brexit with both Irish retailers looking at the continent and continental suppliers actively looking at entry into the Irish market. Ireland's not huge but it's very lucrative and having the British out of action is an opportunity for someone else.

CptMackey

MrMusician18 wrote: »

we import UK milk from NI. A lot of fresh milk sold in the country is produced the six counties. Free state milk is generally dried for use in baby formula and other users that require powdered milk.

What's free state milk? The free state is gone you know .

10000maniacs

prawnsambo wrote: »

You need to paraphrase the assumptions as well. Because there are other options for supply than just Britain. It seems to me that the assumption is that we continue to import food and food ingredients from Britain. That would be unbelievably stupid.

You mean importing for example Unilever/ Kraft/ Coca Cola/Nestle products directly from the EU?
Do you realize there is a huge premium in doing that? The ESRI are obviously factoring that in. And what about fresh produce from the UK? We don't manufacture all of our fresh produce. Not even close. It will take nearly three days for a Brexit-Buster ship to sail from Ireland to Rotterdam and nearly three days back. That more or less screws fresh produce from the EU.

MrMusician18

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

In that context, 65% of medicine imported into Ireland comes through the UK.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

It is not being dismissed 'out of hand' though. It will be an issue but a temporary issue as the market reacts/adjusts. And it will of course be adjusting for the better - removing our dependence on what has become a volatile and unpredictable political neighbour.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

You mean importing for example Unilever/ Kraft/ Coca Cola/Nestle products directly from the EU?
Do you realize there is a huge premium in doing that? The ESRI are obviously factoring that in. And what about fresh produce from the UK? We don't manufacture all of our fresh produce. Not even close. It will take nearly three days for a Brexit-Buster ship to sail from Ireland to Rotterdam and nearly three days back. That more or less screws fresh produce from the EU.

There isn't the kind of premium that you illustrate in your original post. And the transit time by ship from (say) Roscoff is under 24 hours. The transit time from Zeebrugge is 36 hours. Oh, and we have our own Coca-Cola bottlers here.

blanch152

CptMackey wrote: »

What's free state milk? The free state is gone you know .

The reference to free state milk must be to the cartons given to schoolchildren?

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is not being dismissed 'out of hand' though. It will be an issue but a temporary issue as the market reacts/adjusts. And it will of course be adjusting for the better - removing our dependence on what has become a volatile and unpredictable political neighbour.

Shortages may indeed be temporary, but the higher prices will be permanent.

blanch152

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand.

And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that.

Posters here can't have it both ways.

I think you are failing to take into account the substitution effect.

Lays replacing Walkers as the imported crisp of choice etc.

There will be increases due to the cost of transportation increasing but the substitution effect, and the alternative sourcing of produce will mitigate most of the effect of the import taxes.

If a €2 product from the UK gets hit with a 50% import tax to cost €3, it is more likely to be replaced by a €2.10 product from Germany or France, which only costs more because of the transport costs.

MrMusician18

prawnsambo wrote: »

There isn't the kind of premium that you illustrate in your original post. And the transit time by ship from (say) Roscoff is under 24 hours. The transit time from Zeebrugge is 36 hours. Oh, and we have our own Coca-Cola bottlers here.

I'm fairly sure the last remaining coca cola bottling plant on the island is in Lisburn.

MrMusician18

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you are failing to take into account the substitution effect.

Lays replacing Walkers as the imported crisp of choice etc.

There will be increases due to the cost of transportation increasing but the substitution effect, and the alternative sourcing of produce will mitigate most of the effect of the import taxes.

If a €2 product from the UK gets hit with a 50% import tax to cost €3, it is more likely to be replaced by a €2.10 product from Germany or France, which only costs more because of the transport costs.

So the 5% rise in the price of the numbers you've pulled out of your backside is permanent or temporary?

As I've argued, and the experts agree, in the hard Brexit event there will be temporary shortages of some foodstuffs and a permanent increase in price.