Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You'd have to ask then why do we use UK suppliers in the first instance at all? Convenience? Price? Inertia? If wager that it's mostly price driven and that when Irish importers have looked to the continent they have always found it more expensive. Brexit doesn't change that, it just makes the UK more expensive.

You wouldnt have to ask it at all.

Historical relationships. Its not rocket science...

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm fairly sure the last remaining coca cola bottling plant on the island is in Lisburn.

We will just source from Europe. This isnt really rocket science the increase in throughput from our southern ports is already up with new vessels coming online.

These are permanent changes that will hurt the UK , its ports , jobs and its manufacturing permanently.

Remember here who is in the Single Market and Customs union and who wont be.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

You wouldnt have to ask it at all.

Historical relationships. Its not rocket science...

We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now.

Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.

EdgeCase

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In that context, 65% of medicine imported into Ireland comes through the UK.

This is seriously mitigated by a government decision a year or so ago to join Beneluxa, a group formed by the Benelux countries and Austria to pool their buying power and cooperate on drugs and medicines supply.

See details below:

http://www.beneluxa.org

It's both Brexit proofing and more importantly it's reducing the cost of drugs to the HSE.

We're fully part of it since June 2018.

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Shortages may indeed be temporary, but the higher prices will be permanent.

You are pulling prices out of your arse *to be fair.

No one knows what the price of a product will be from Europe. neither do you so stop with the guesses.

You are being told that new routes will circumvent the UK. That is factual. That is what we are discussing

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now.

Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.

No its simply not.

Do you work in any Irish Firm ? They use the UK market because of historical relationships, language , ease of access and all of the above.

Why go search for another market if its effort. However with Government supports they will develop with assistance, both relationship and language to move into those import and export markets.

That is what will happen that is what hasnt happened in the past because it was not convenient to do so. It will be forced to do so now.

blanch152

MrMusician18 wrote: »

So the 5% rise in the price of the numbers you've pulled out of your backside is permanent or temporary?

As I've argued, and the experts agree, in the hard Brexit event there will be shortages of some foodstuffs and a permanent increase in price.

I accept that there will be shortages of some foodstuffs and some increases in price. That happens today too.

It isn't as apparent in big supermarkets, because they re-arrange space, but shortages do occur. A lot of it is in fresh food where out-of-season fruit and vegetables are out-of-stock more often at certain times of the year, because the supermarkets prefer to be out of stock (and their captive customers pick something else), than to increase the price.

Will be price increases be permanent? We don't know. How about this scenario? UK comes quickly to its senses, agrees a free trade deal, but currency has collapsed and made imports from the UK cheaper, thus pushing down prices to the Irish consumer?

Economic studies are always limited, because they are based on assumptions. If there is a hard Brexit, if the UK permanently sticks to WTO rules, if consumers refuse to accept EU alternatives to their UK favourites, then there will be shortages and permanent increases. Fully agree, except that I expect some of those assumptions to change and mitigate the effects.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

You are pulling prices out of your arse *to be fair.

No one knows what the price of a product will be from Europe. neither do you so stop with the guesses.

You are being told that new routes will circumvent the UK. That is factual. That is what we are discussing

I'm not the one claiming that the market is currently operating inefficiently and that switching to continental suppliers over UK ones won't change product availability in the short term and price stability with respect to today from the short to medium term

For posters that put so much store in experts, there is no issue dismissing them when it doesn't for the narrative.

Funny that, I thought we were more sophisticated than to be taken in by magical thinking.:rolleyes:

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm not the one claiming that the market is currently operating inefficiently and that switching to continental suppliers over UK ones won't change product availability in the short term and price stability with respect to today from the short to medium term

For posters that put so much store in experts, there is no issue dismissing them when it doesn't for the narrative.

Funny that, I thought we were more sophisticated than to be taken in by magical thinking.:rolleyes:

What are you on about ?

Abysmal response.

EdgeCase

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now.

Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.

We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement.

Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged.

We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

No its simply not.

Do you work in any Irish Firm ? They use the UK market because of historical relationships, language , ease of access and all of the above.

Why go search for another market if its effort. However with Government supports they will develop with assistance, both relationship and language to move into those import and export markets.

That is what will happen that is what hasnt happened in the past because it was not convenient to do so. It will be forced to do so now.

So you're saying that the irish market is operating inefficiently and is paying a premium essentially because of the laziness of it's companies?

Please share the names of the specific markets these companies operates in so I can set up a company to undercut them with my continental suppliers.

Oh, see where your argument falls down?

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

So you're saying that the irish market is operating inefficiently and is paying a premium essentially because of the laziness of it's companies?

Please share the names of the specific markets these companies operates in so I can set up a company to undercut them with my continental suppliers.

Oh, see where your argument falls down?

No,

YOU said the irish market is operating inefficiently.

I said that the Irish market hasnt gone to European market in largesse due to historical relationships.


its YOUR assertion that we cannot get same/similar deals from Continental providers as we do in the UK. YOUR assertion that they are worse deals there.

Yours, dont put words in my mouth. See where your argument falls down?

This is you

"if the continent had the same deals then we would have gone there instead"

- Nonsense.

Tell me how

EdgeCase wrote: »

We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement.

Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged.

We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.

This is true.
But, we are deeply intertwined with the UK for at least 3 reasons.

Material and goods flow (in both directions) over the border to NI.
Produce which we sell to the UK Market.
The path which our produce takes via the UK and on to Europe.

I would be afraid though that we will still see a very negative impact from Brexit and even leaving that aside, the popular opinions in the UK may lead them to promote exacting some form of revenge on us for what they see as an aggressive position as they have tried to negotiate a deal.

I fear that Simon Coveney's and Leo Varadkar's words that they are a close and valued friend will be drowned out by the Pritti Patels and Boris Johnson's of their parliament who are of the view that we are being deliberately obstructionist.

J Mysterio

Just in case anyone hasn't had a good laugh/ cry today:

"David Davis says the pound crashing after a no-deal Brexit would be “not a bad thing” – and insists “fear” will force the EU into further compromise"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-pound-crash-david-davis-eu-renegotiation-compromise-a8671356.html

EdgeCase

There's very little you can do about Irish-bashing Tories. They've always existed and they probably always will. They simply see us as an annoyance or they've a genuine hatred of us.

I certainly wouldn't be in any rush to bend over backwards to apologise for our defence of our economic interests or for our right to exist just because it's frustrating a few Tories.

In the long run the UK is going to have to start behaving sensibly again. This stuff can only go on so long until the markets start to become wary of political instability and impending chaos. There's been an enormous amount leeway given to the UK to come up with something sensible and I think many investors were genuinely assuming that this period of chaos was just a glitch that would resolve itself. That hasn't been the case.

10000maniacs

Tell me how wrote: »

This is true.
But, we are deeply intertwined with the UK for at least 3 reasons.

Material and goods flow (in both directions) over the border to NI.
Produce which we sell to the UK Market.
The path which our produce takes via the UK and on to Europe.

I would be afraid though that we will still see a very negative impact from Brexit and even leaving that aside, the popular opinions in the UK may lead them to promote exacting some form of revenge on us for what they see as an aggressive position as they have tried to negotiate a deal.

I fear that Simon Coveney's and Leo Varadkar's words that they are a close and valued friend will be drowned out by the Pritti Patels and Boris Johnson's of their parliament who are of the view that we are being deliberately obstructionist.

I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

Can be overcome with stickers

Yep. If you buy any American peanut butter in the "specialty" section of a German supermarket the nutritional information is on a sticker. Often in fact in smaller markets like Hungary, Slovakia etc. you will find the product has the name and basic description on the front in English and on the rear the localisations, not including any English as the product is not actually sold in an English speaking market.

Water John

Just to take two products mentioned, cheddar cheese and milk. I we continue to ship these products back and forth with the UK and it has a No Deal Brexit, then the figures put up will happen. But with NDB that is not what will happen. Cheddar cheese is shipped in bulk to the UK and reimported in retail packs. That obviously would stop and thus little or no increase in price.
Milk ATM hops across the border with NI. The main supplier in the ROI that ships from NI is Strathroy. But they also take milk from farmers to NI. again that traffic stops. Strathroy then processes its milk in the ROI as it does some already.
No increase in the litre of milk.
Others doing drinking milk are Aurivo, Arrabawn and Glanbia/Avonmore

BTW what is used for baby formula is whey a byproduct of cheese making. Only some processors do this, Dairygold, Carbery, Tipperary and Glanbia.

josip

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?

Our climate is not suited to growing wheat, too much of that rain you mentioned.

An Ciarraioch

Two more MEPs quit UKIP - Paul Nuttall and David Coburn.

Tell me how

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's very little you can do about Irish-bashing Tories. They've always existed and they probably always will. They simply see us as an annoyance or they've a genuine hatred of us.

I certainly wouldn't be in any rush to bend over backwards to apologise for our defence of our economic interests or for our right to exist just because it's frustrating a few Tories.

In the long run the UK is going to have to start behaving sensibly again. This stuff can only go on so long until the markets start to become wary of political instability and impending chaos. There's been an enormous amount leeway given to the UK to come up with something sensible and I think many investors were genuinely assuming that this period of chaos was just a glitch that would resolve itself. That hasn't been the case.

What I've felt throughout this entire process is that individual human traits and behaviours can be transferred to something as big as a government, a parliament or a country. Think of Brexit in the context of a divorce between a real life couple.

There can be accusations of one trying to paint history in a different light, one seeming to be willing to scupper the necessary future relationship just because they feel bitter. There can be arguments over ongoing payments (child maintenance/alimony etc). There can be claims that one is going to be in a new relationship within weeks and that they have always been held back by their partner who was controlling and difficult (this isn't a Foil Arm and Hogg sketch I swear). And others can make claims which are similarly biased given the relationship with who their friend is within the couple.

And when the couple finally do separate, there can be lingering negativity which has no real benefit for either party yet is persisted with.

It could be argued that the groups mentioned above (government/parliament /country) even though they are by nature a group made up of individuals can still take on personality traits which are as identifiable as if they were held by just one person.

This is obviously because of dominant personalities within each group (or the media influencing public opinion) but I think it is naive to think that the UK is going to decide it needs to start behaving sensibly as a matter of fact.

If for no other reason than the definition of 'sensible' in this context is very subjective.

First Up

It is obvious that some supply chains would have to be adjusted but they already are. New shipping routes, additional vessels and expanded port facilities are all well underway.

Yes, there may be some additional costs and some supply chains may take a while to adjust to by-passing the UK. We always knew this would be the case.

Some benefits will arise too; increased freight traffic coming in will create more capacity for back loads at lower cost so new market opportunities. Don't worry; the food and logistics industries are well able for it.

There is understandable concern about the UK market itself but the UK imports half of everything it eats. Its a bigger problem for them than us.

A no deal Brexit is not in anyone's interest but it wouldn't be the end of the world as we know it either. We will get less from the UK and even less via the UK but we have ready-made alternatives.

murphaph

EdgeCase wrote: »

We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement.

Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged.

We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.

It's kind of ironic but Brexit might actually do for Ireland what Brexiteers promise it will do for the UK. Ireland might really benefit from increased trade with markets further away, but in continental Europe! Most firms will have been quite happy with the large UK market on their doorstep and it will be a challenge to tap into the massive market beyond that but many firms have done it and there are huge (real) benefits to be had. Ireland is in a good position here. We are an English speaking country so we easily attract the language skills we need to export to continental Europe. It would be much more difficult for say Poland to attract Italians, Spanish, French etc. staff to live in Poland and handle their key accounts in those foreign countries.

RobMc59

Water John wrote: »

Yorkshire Puds and Cornish Pasties, can't think of any thing else.

Tea bags and hp sauce?

RobMc59

Water John wrote: »

Just to take two products mentioned, cheddar cheese and milk. I we continue to ship these products back and forth with the UK and it has a No Deal Brexit, then the figures put up will happen. But with NDB that is not what will happen. Cheddar cheese is shipped in bulk to the UK and reimported in retail packs. That obviously would stop and thus little or no increase in price.
Milk ATM hops across the border with NI. The main supplier in the ROI that ships from NI is Strathroy. But they also take milk from farmers to NI. again that traffic stops. Strathroy then processes its milk in the ROI as it does some already.
No increase in the litre of milk.
Others doing drinking milk are Aurivo, Arrabawn and Glanbia/Avonmore

BTW what is used for baby formula is whey a byproduct of cheese making. Only some processors do this, Dairygold, Carbery, Tipperary and Glanbia.

A bizarre possible consequence of a hard brexit could mean region specific cheeses may have to be renamed-as with parma ham and arbroath smokies which can only be called that if actually from there

josip

RobMc59 wrote: »

Tea bags and hp sauce?

Barrys and Chef are Irish producers of tea and brown sauce and will do quite well if tariffs are applied to the Dutch/British tea bags known as Lyons.
HP sauce is owned by the Dutch now I think?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HP_Sauce

The introduction to this Guardian article in 2015 is still relevant in 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2015/jan/05/-sp-brown-sauce-sales-are-falling-has-britain-finally-come-to-its-senses

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

This is seriously mitigated by a government decision a year or so ago to join Beneluxa, a group formed by the Benelux countries and Austria to pool their buying power and cooperate on drugs and medicines supply.

See details below:

http://www.beneluxa.org

It's both Brexit proofing and more importantly it's reducing the cost of drugs to the HSE.

We're fully part of it since June 2018.

Good. My stat came from a doctor who was being interviewed on Newstalk two weeks ago about the impact of Brexit on health services in Ireland.

An Ciarraioch

Some interesting stats in the full Lucid Talk tables (link in post 10):

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2315731/half-of-ni-voters-would-back-a-united-ireland-after-brexit-55-would-if-theres-no-deal#latest

blanch152

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?

http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/essay/suitable-conditions-required-for-wheat-cultivation-5-conditions/25489


"The weather should be warm and moist during the early stage of growth and sunny and dry in the later stages."


http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/content/climatic-requirement-wheat-temperature

" optimum 20-25 "

10000maniacs

blanch152 wrote: »

http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/essay/suitable-conditions-required-for-wheat-cultivation-5-conditions/25489


"The weather should be warm and moist during the early stage of growth and sunny and dry in the later stages."


http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/content/climatic-requirement-wheat-temperature

" optimum 20-25 "

But then there's this.
https://www.fwi.co.uk/arable/ireland-leads-world-wheat-yields