kuro68k wrote: » The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.
MrMusician18 wrote: » we import UK milk from NI. A lot of fresh milk sold in the country is produced the six counties. Free state milk is generally dried for use in baby formula and other users that require powdered milk.
prawnsambo wrote: » You need to paraphrase the assumptions as well. Because there are other options for supply than just Britain. It seems to me that the assumption is that we continue to import food and food ingredients from Britain. That would be unbelievably stupid.
MrMusician18 wrote: » The last few posts in relation to food imports into Ireland here are telling. We often accuse the Brexiteers here of magical thinking and ignoring the experts, yet when experts here say food prices will rise here as a result of Brexit we have no issue in dismissing their considered analysis out of hand. And it's not as if it's an outlandish prediction. We can look at the present day supply chains and if we believe the dire consequences a hard Brexit would have for the UK economy and it's ability to import/export then the increase in price for food imported from the UK is a logical extension of that. Posters here can't have it both ways.
10000maniacs wrote: » You mean importing for example Unilever/ Kraft/ Coca Cola/Nestle products directly from the EU? Do you realize there is a huge premium in doing that? The ESRI are obviously factoring that in. And what about fresh produce from the UK? We don't manufacture all of our fresh produce. Not even close. It will take nearly three days for a Brexit-Buster ship to sail from Ireland to Rotterdam and nearly three days back. That more or less screws fresh produce from the EU.
CptMackey wrote: » What's free state milk? The free state is gone you know .
FrancieBrady wrote: » It is not being dismissed 'out of hand' though. It will be an issue but a temporary issue as the market reacts/adjusts. And it will of course be adjusting for the better - removing our dependence on what has become a volatile and unpredictable political neighbour.
prawnsambo wrote: » There isn't the kind of premium that you illustrate in your original post. And the transit time by ship from (say) Roscoff is under 24 hours. The transit time from Zeebrugge is 36 hours. Oh, and we have our own Coca-Cola bottlers here.
blanch152 wrote: » I think you are failing to take into account the substitution effect. Lays replacing Walkers as the imported crisp of choice etc. There will be increases due to the cost of transportation increasing but the substitution effect, and the alternative sourcing of produce will mitigate most of the effect of the import taxes. If a €2 product from the UK gets hit with a 50% import tax to cost €3, it is more likely to be replaced by a €2.10 product from Germany or France, which only costs more because of the transport costs.
MrMusician18 wrote: » You'd have to ask then why do we use UK suppliers in the first instance at all? Convenience? Price? Inertia? If wager that it's mostly price driven and that when Irish importers have looked to the continent they have always found it more expensive. Brexit doesn't change that, it just makes the UK more expensive.
MrMusician18 wrote: » I'm fairly sure the last remaining coca cola bottling plant on the island is in Lisburn.
listermint wrote: » You wouldnt have to ask it at all. Historical relationships. Its not rocket science...
Professor Moriarty wrote: » In that context, 65% of medicine imported into Ireland comes through the UK.
MrMusician18 wrote: » Shortages may indeed be temporary, but the higher prices will be permanent.
MrMusician18 wrote: » We've been in a common market with the continent for 40 years. If there was a cheaper way of doing business that's the way it would be done by now. Even when you look at new entrants in the Irish market, who don't have those "relationships", like lidl and Aldi, they import here through the UK.
MrMusician18 wrote: » So the 5% rise in the price of the numbers you've pulled out of your backside is permanent or temporary? As I've argued, and the experts agree, in the hard Brexit event there will be shortages of some foodstuffs and a permanent increase in price.
listermint wrote: » You are pulling prices out of your arse *to be fair. No one knows what the price of a product will be from Europe. neither do you so stop with the guesses. You are being told that new routes will circumvent the UK. That is factual. That is what we are discussing
MrMusician18 wrote: » I'm not the one claiming that the market is currently operating inefficiently and that switching to continental suppliers over UK ones won't change product availability in the short term and price stability with respect to today from the short to medium termFor posters that put so much store in experts, there is no issue dismissing them when it doesn't for the narrative. Funny that, I thought we were more sophisticated than to be taken in by magical thinking.:rolleyes:
listermint wrote: » No its simply not. Do you work in any Irish Firm ? They use the UK market because of historical relationships, language , ease of access and all of the above. Why go search for another market if its effort. However with Government supports they will develop with assistance, both relationship and language to move into those import and export markets. That is what will happen that is what hasnt happened in the past because it was not convenient to do so. It will be forced to do so now.
MrMusician18 wrote: » So you're saying that the irish market is operating inefficiently and is paying a premium essentially because of the laziness of it's companies? Please share the names of the specific markets these companies operates in so I can set up a company to undercut them with my continental suppliers. Oh, see where your argument falls down?
EdgeCase wrote: » We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement. Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged. We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.
Tell me how wrote: » This is true. But, we are deeply intertwined with the UK for at least 3 reasons. Material and goods flow (in both directions) over the border to NI. Produce which we sell to the UK Market. The path which our produce takes via the UK and on to Europe. I would be afraid though that we will still see a very negative impact from Brexit and even leaving that aside, the popular opinions in the UK may lead them to promote exacting some form of revenge on us for what they see as an aggressive position as they have tried to negotiate a deal. I fear that Simon Coveney's and Leo Varadkar's words that they are a close and valued friend will be drowned out by the Pritti Patels and Boris Johnson's of their parliament who are of the view that we are being deliberately obstructionist.
J Mysterio wrote: » Can be overcome with stickers
10000maniacs wrote: » I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?
