Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Bit cynical · 07-12-2018 12:00PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not sure why you think you hold some moral high ground on this issue. Half of your contributions here consist of being personally offended by the contributions of others. Fact is, 95% of Irish people think Brexit is a bad idea. They are right.

I think it is not merely disagreement with Brexit. A lot of people don't respect the decision either. If they had their way, the UK would not be allowed to make such a decision.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 12:09PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://www-thejournal-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/?amp=1&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHCAFYAYABAQ==#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

Ireland is the most stable country in the world in terms of being able to provide food for its population.
So, they are prepared to cause another famine to get Brexit!
Words fail me.

While this is true, there almost certainly would be shortages of certain types of food and food products in the country in the event of a hard Brexit. You might not be able to find your Weetabix in the local supermarket, a hard Brexit would definitely see some empty shelves in supermarkets.

The country wouldn't starve however, but choice would be limited with respect to today.

VinLieger · 07-12-2018 12:16PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The country wouldn't starve however, but choice would be limited with respect to today.

Indeed we are one of the most stable countries with regard to being able to feed ourselves in the world. The UK on the other hand i read imports something close to 50%( no citation so could be wrong) of its food, which is insane and why they are so open to very dangerous shortages in the case of a hard brexit.

CelticRambler · 07-12-2018 12:17PM

Meanwhile, Norway says "feck off ..."

[Heidi Nordby] Lunde told the Guardian: “Really, the Norwegian option is not an option. We have been telling you this for one and a half years since the referendum and how this works, so I am surprised that after all these years it is still part of the grown-up debate in the UK. You just expect us to give you an invitation rather than consider whether Norway would want to give you such an invitation. It might be in your interest to use our agreement, but it would not be in our interest.”

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 12:17PM

They do realise we're the ones still in the single market and they're the ones leaving?

Fog in the channel mentality.

Comments like that could cost the UK economy billions as they'll activate Irish retailers contingency plans.

You'll just see a lot more continental products on the shelves.

If she thinks Dunnes, Musgraves, Lidl, Aldi or even Tesco Ireland will just passively sit there if suppliers can't supply at reasonable cost she never met a supermarket buyer.

We'll end up with some familiar brands disappearing but it creates a large space for both Irish and continental direct replacements.

Meanwhile the UK is the one facing a fundament food shortage of basic items.

Leroy42 · 07-12-2018 12:20PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not sure why you think you hold some moral high ground on this issue. Half of your contributions here consist of being personally offended by the contributions of others. Fact is, 95% of Irish people think Brexit is a bad idea. They are right.

I think it is not merely disagreement with Brexit. A lot of people don't respect the decision either. If they had their way, the UK would not be allowed to make such a decision.

And they must take responsibility for that decision.

Responsibility for maintaining the GFA for example.
Responsibility for paying their obligations to the EU.
Responsibility for the outcome of the decision rather than blaming the Irish or the EU.

Enzokk · 07-12-2018 12:21PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

While this is true, there almost certainly would be shortages of certain types of food and food products in the country in the event of a hard Brexit. You might not be able to find your Weetabix in the local supermarket, a hard Brexit would definitely see some empty shelves in supermarkets.

The country wouldn't starve however, but choice would be limited with respect to today.

Surely the only products we would have a shortage with would be specialist British products that has British ingredients. Seems that you can find most other products with a different brand name from your friendly German supermarket that would surely be sourced from the continent, right?

Water John · 07-12-2018 12:23PM

Yorkshire Puds and Cornish Pasties, can't think of any thing else.

cml387 · 07-12-2018 12:26PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely the only products we would have a shortage with would be specialist British products that has British ingredients. Seems that you can find most other products with a different brand name from your friendly German supermarket that would surely be sourced from the continent, right?

It's transporting goods through the UK is the problem. Not actually getting them (though I imagine the UK would want to hoard their supplies of Marmite and Bovril to keep them going through the hard winter).

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 12:29PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely the only products we would have a shortage with would be specialist British products that has British ingredients. Seems that you can find most other products with a different brand name from your friendly German supermarket that would surely be sourced from the continent, right?

A lot of "British" products are also made on the continent. There's a huge amount of big brand items that may be packed in the UK for localisation and we're generally getting that supply. They're classified as UK exports but in a lot of cases they're not.

It applies to a lot of consumer goods sold here.

There's an issue in shifting supply chains around but it's not impossible. You're looking at possible disruption and unfamiliar brands rather than actual shortages.

Ireland's a small but very lucrative market for consumer goods. It's not anymore likely to be abandoned than Sweden or Denmark.

robinph · 07-12-2018 12:32PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely the only products we would have a shortage with would be specialist British products that has British ingredients. Seems that you can find most other products with a different brand name from your friendly German supermarket that would surely be sourced from the continent, right?

The biggest issue for Ireland would be the lorries and boats having to go the long way round from France, or setup a transport corridor along the lines for the Berlin airlift until some bigger/ faster boats and more planes/ runways are sorted out. Other than maybe losing out on fresh Jaffa Cakes I'm not sure Ireland will miss out on much that the UK supplies.

Will just need the manufactures in the rest of Europe to stick stuff in boxes with English writing on rather than it currently being done for the UK market with a bit siphoned off for Ireland...or you all have to learn to read French/ German.

ArmaniJeanss · 07-12-2018 12:32PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Meanwhile, Norway says "feck off ..."

I'd be wary of that article to be honest.
Interviewing/quoting one or two politicians and business leaders and extrapolating that their opinion represents government policy is something we laugh at when the Express or Telegraph does it.
So it's plausible that the Norwegians that the Guardian chose have as much relevance as Hans-Olaf Henkel or Ray Bassett who the Express love quoting.

Gerry T · 07-12-2018 12:32PM

cml387 wrote:

It's transporting goods through the UK is the problem. Not actually getting them (though I imagine the UK would want to hoard their supplies of Marmite and Bovril to keep them going through the hard winter).

Have we not increased our capacity to direct ship product from EU from about 40% to 80% of all imports/exports. This adds some time but there's no customs que' s.
The Celine is one ship I know of but others are either up and running or coming in '19 and '20

listermint · 07-12-2018 12:35PM

Ireland could change routes,

It would be difficult.

But achievable.

What Britain fails ot understand is that it would be permanent.

Net result Millions of jobs losses in the UK.

Self harm in all its forms.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 12:41PM

robinph wrote: »

The biggest issue for Ireland would be the lorries and boats having to go the long way round from France, or setup a transport corridor along the lines for the Berlin airlift until some bigger/ faster boats and more planes/ runways are sorted out. Other than maybe losing out on fresh Jaffa Cakes I'm not sure Ireland will miss out on much that the UK supplies.

Will just need the manufactures in the rest of Europe to stick stuff in boxes with English writing on rather than it currently being done for the UK market with a bit siphoned off for Ireland...or you all have to learn to read French/ German.

I'm fairly certain that key information (nutrition and ingredients) on labels is regulated and must be written in english to be sold here.

It's not a matter of taking stock from the continent, it needs to be localised for us, which could be a problem if that work is done in the UK at the moment.

J Mysterio · 07-12-2018 12:46PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm fairly certain that key information (nutrition and ingredients) on labels is regulated and must be written in english to be sold here.

It's not a matter of taking stock from the continent, it needs to be localised for us, which could be a problem if that work is done in the UK at the moment.

Can be overcome with stickers

10000maniacs · 07-12-2018 12:50PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely the only products we would have a shortage with would be specialist British products that has British ingredients. Seems that you can find most other products with a different brand name from your friendly German supermarket that would surely be sourced from the continent, right?

There are more than 4,500 products routinely imported from Britain and the price of bread and cereals in the Republic could rise by up to 30 per cent in a hard Brexit scenario, while milk, cheese and egg prices could increase 46 per cent. A range of products – including meat, sugar, confectionery, coffee, tea and mineral water – are likely to increase by 20-30 per cent. The overall effect of these changes would increase the average cost of living for Irish households by 2-3.1 per cent, which, in cash terms. means an annual cost of €892-€1,360 per household.

josip · 07-12-2018 12:52PM

Has Roslare harbour considered any expansion plans in the event of a hard Brexit?
For non-perishables I understand that it makes more sense to ship directly to the major population centres.
But there must be some types of perishable goods that would make more sense to deliver to Roslare than Dublin Port?
At least for distribution to the bottom half of the country?

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 12:54PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm fairly certain that key information (nutrition and ingredients) on labels is regulated and must be written in english to be sold here.

It's not a matter of taking stock from the continent, it needs to be localised for us, which could be a problem if that work is done in the UK at the moment.

You can simply apply stickers and also the Irish market isn't so small that you couldn't do a run of a product with localised labels. It's not that big a challenge.

A lot of Benelux products even have labelling in English already.

listermint · 07-12-2018 12:54PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

There are more than 4,500 products routinely imported from Britain and the price of bread and cereals in the Republic could rise by up to 30 per cent in a hard Brexit scenario, while milk, cheese and egg prices could increase 46 per cent. A range of products – including meat, sugar, confectionery, coffee, tea and mineral water – are likely to increase by 20-30 per cent. The overall effect of these changes would increase the average cost of living for Irish households by 2-3.1 per cent, which, in cash terms. means an annual cost of €892-€1,360 per household.

Im actually not sure where you get your figures from ? Where do we import UK Milk from, besides processing our own stuff over the border.. And Cheese ?

prawnsambo · 07-12-2018 12:57PM

robinph wrote: »

The biggest issue for Ireland would be the lorries and boats having to go the long way round from France, or setup a transport corridor along the lines for the Berlin airlift until some bigger/ faster boats and more planes/ runways are sorted out. Other than maybe losing out on fresh Jaffa Cakes I'm not sure Ireland will miss out on much that the UK supplies.

Will just need the manufactures in the rest of Europe to stick stuff in boxes with English writing on rather than it currently being done for the UK market with a bit siphoned off for Ireland...or you all have to learn to read French/ German.

All that's already in hand. The replacement corridor is now designated to be through Zeebrugge, Amsterdam and Rotterdam. The French have stamped their foot a little bit and are promising alternatives as well, including fast tracking Irish goods. A new ship was launched recently to cover the proposed route and is apparently the largest RoRo ferry in the world.

Roughly speaking the alternative routes would add approximately 12 to 24 hours to the landbridge route. The landbridge route could still be an option if there are well organised TIR routes set up at British ports. But it looks like there will be chaos there, so best avoided.

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 12:58PM

None of those assumptions on household costs take in the fact that retailers, wholesalers, distributors and customers will switch away from UK suppliers, supply chains and products.

There'll be a short term impact here but I would be very surprised if it lingers.

The market will react and also Irish government and European Union and also neighbouring countries governments are reacting.

Britain's loss is a huge market opportunity for French, Benelux, German, Spanish and all sorts of other suppliers.

Also the big multinational food companies have huge internal supply chains which are capable of drastically reducing Irish exposure to UK chaos.

What Patel is doing is behaving like a Russian politician and threatening large customers for political reasons. That's why Russia isn't a trusted supplier of anything and it looks like that's the kind of relationship that we going to end up with with the UK too.

Is absolutely disastrous for British business, as they're basically now operating in an unstable political environment and that's prepared to weaponise trade.

Who in their right mind would do business with a country like that? Particularly where they are stable and friendly alternatives?

The only reason Russia gets away with it is they're hugely dominant in gas supply and they're are few alternatives. However, even they caused a major change in EU energy policy as energy businesses, national governments seems the EU isn't able to trust that they wouldn't just turn off the tap for political reasons.

Our EU and single market membership is what protects us from the bullying large neighbour problem. It's a very different world from the one when the UK could issue threats like that.

ZeroThreat · 07-12-2018 01:00PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://www-thejournal-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/?amp=1&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHCAFYAYABAQ==#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

Ireland is the most stable country in the world in terms of being able to provide food for its population.
So, they are prepared to cause another famine to get Brexit!
Words fail me.

Hmmm, I'd guess someone of Indian heritage would know quite a bit about the history of famine & food shortages in colonies under British rule.

10000maniacs · 07-12-2018 01:00PM

listermint wrote: »

Im actually not sure where you get your figures from ? Where do we import UK Milk from, besides processing our own stuff over the border.. And Cheese ?

The ESRI published a research paper earlier this year on this, and I am just paraphrasing that paper.

prawnsambo · 07-12-2018 01:03PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

The ESRI published a research paper earlier this year on this, and I am just paraphrasing that paper.

You need to paraphrase the assumptions as well. Because there are other options for supply than just Britain. It seems to me that the assumption is that we continue to import food and food ingredients from Britain. That would be unbelievably stupid.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 01:03PM

listermint wrote: »

Im actually not sure where you get your figures from ? Where do we import UK Milk from, besides processing our own stuff over the border.. And Cheese ?

we import UK milk from NI. A lot of fresh milk sold in the country is produced the six counties. Free state milk is generally dried for use in baby formula and other users that require powdered milk.

MrMusician18 · 07-12-2018 01:10PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

None of those assumptions on household costs take in the fact that retailers, wholesalers, distributors and customers will switch away from UK suppliers, supply chains and products.

There'll be a short term impact here but I would be very surprised if it lingers.

The market will react and also Irish government and European Union and also neighbouring countries governments are reacting.

You'd have to ask then why do we use UK suppliers in the first instance at all? Convenience? Price? Inertia? If wager that it's mostly price driven and that when Irish importers have looked to the continent they have always found it more expensive. Brexit doesn't change that, it just makes the UK more expensive.

Hurrache · 07-12-2018 01:14PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd be wary of that article to be honest.
Interviewing/quoting one or two politicians and business leaders and extrapolating that their opinion represents government policy is something we laugh at when the Express or Telegraph does it.
So it's plausible that the Norwegians that the Guardian chose have as much relevance as Hans-Olaf Henkel or Ray Bassett who the Express love quoting.

I read the letter a day or two ago, so it's been in the ether before the Guardian story.

Skelet0n · 07-12-2018 01:17PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Hmmm, I'd guess someone of Indian heritage would know quite a bit about the history of famine & food shortages in colonies under British rule.

Her family were functionaries of the British government in Uganda. Very much more collaborators than victims of any famine.

EdgeCase · 07-12-2018 01:17PM

Proximity, familiarity and inertia largely.

The UK is removing the proximity factor which renders them much less competitive as a supplier.

You'd be surprised at how many retailers really don't look very far beyond British supply chains.

Ireland's actually never really bothered to make good use is eurozone membership in this area either. Buying in Euro is actually good for price stability here.

You'll have a changed environment after Brexit with both Irish retailers looking at the continent and continental suppliers actively looking at entry into the Irish market. Ireland's not huge but it's very lucrative and having the British out of action is an opportunity for someone else.