Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Archeron

One thing that has really struck me about all of this lately is that despite all of the brilliant analysis and heartfelt posts and learned opinions on this thread, on both sides, for me this isn't completely about covid anymore.

What i see now here is the complete disregard for the will of the people of our beautiful little country. The taoiseach and his cabinet has handed full control of the future of hundreds of thousands, millions of people to a group of unelected single issue individuals who account to nobody.

Michael Martin has essentially got his fingers in his ears saying lalala, everything is going wrong but I don't care, lalalala while the group who have the power are sitting there pulling the strings.

We will decide what you can and cannot do. And when. Us, not the people you elected.
We know you don't trust us,and rightly so, but tough, you have no choice.
If you start to act up, we'll take away your freedoms again. Wanna go back to 5km, do ya, DO YA? Yeah, now feck off and we might let you have a meaningful Christmas.
We control the government
The government control the police.
The government control the media.
We will use the media to portray you as a nutter.
We will attend calls and meetings of our own choosing.
The elected government will speak of us with a tone of deference at all times.
Anybody who argues with us is a crazy anti vaxxer and we will use the media to reinforce that.
Wash your hands.
Holdfirm
Just two more weeks.

The behaviour of certain members of these advisory councils has sparked a major nerve in people. The arrogance, the seemingly delibrate misinformation, appearing on prime time entertainment shows for Christ's sake. I am sure Tony holohan is a lovely man but in my job, if somebody isn't the right one to be in front of the customer, they aren't in front of the customer. How have the government still not learned this? People spoke about the return of Tony after his tragic loss as if was the beginning of a horror movie sequel, things would all get worse again we all thought. And we were right. Something is really rotten in Ireland right now and it's not just covid.

Whether nphet are right or wrong, and great arguments made for both sides on this thread, for me I will never forget any of the members of the current government who stand by and let this happen.

They have divided society horribly, instilled horrible fear in so many, and now in my own personal experience over the past two weeks, are actively damaging the vaccine rollout by creating uncertainty with those on the fence, eight people I know have said they won't take the vaccine, 7 of them have decided in the past week and a bit.

If an elected government can basically turn around and completely hand all responsibility to an untouchable group, then I worry biglyfor the future. For me the reopening of pubs is just a symbol of this now.

MOH

MOH wrote: »

I'm not assuming anything, but it's the only figure in that data that's remotely valid for comparison

(BTW it's also one that has been used by NPHET on numerous occasions precisely as a comparative measure as to how the virus is progressing)

I'm not sure exactly how the testing criteria "changed massively" during that period? As far as I know, we were still only ever testing based on people with potential symptoms having a referral from a GP, and close contacts of confirmed cases.

I don't know what you mean by "the rate of increase" - of what?
Because if you mean just 7-day cases, that makes no sense.
You can't just base whether things are getting better or worse on that, when the number of tests is varying dramatically.

Week 1: Test 1000 people. Get 500 cases.
Week 2: Test 10000 people. Get 600 cases. Oh no! Things are getting worse!
Week 3: test 100 people. Get 100 cases. Phew! Everything is much better!

Look at the data. Went from ca 20k to 50k tests a week from June to July. That’s why the positive rate dropped. Mass testing started. Symptomatic and close contacts still got tested at the same rate as before but this was supplemented by mass testing in factories, care homes etc. The overall cases grew approx 4% per day from end of June until October.

_Kaiser_

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not the same problem, and you fail to understand, at this stage in the pandemic staggeringly, the purpose of people wearing masks.

Given that, as you said yourself earlier today, lots of people aren't wearing them "properly" anyway, about the only purpose is to act as a placebo for some, and for others to be seen to be doing something.

We weren't wearing them this time last year and yet cases and actual hospitalisation and deaths were at minimal numbers, and yet even with them and social distancing and all the other restrictions, cases increased anyway in the autumn.

Maybe they're just not that effective!

Multipass

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Restaurant representative on Drivetime just now saying it’s gonna be a paper based vaccine pass for indoor dining. 1.8m letters or emails proposed to go out in the next 7 to 10 days. App would take months.

Surely that is pointless? There will people scamming the system left right and centre. I’m not vaccinated but no way my publican is gonna stop me from going indoors. Fake email away ya go.

I’m looking forward to this - it’s going to be fun carrying around your papers, it’ll be a joke by the end of the first night.

Dempo1

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Restaurant representative on Drivetime just now saying it’s gonna be a paper based vaccine pass for indoor dining. 1.8m letters or emails proposed to go out in the next 7 to 10 days. App would take months.

Surely that is pointless? There will people scamming the system left right and centre. I’m not vaccinated but no way my publican is gonna stop me from going indoors. Fake email away ya go.

He's just appalling, his general performance throughout the pandemic has been farcical, one minute saying he supports, next minute threatens absurd legal action, he pushed antigen testing an at the same time his members absolutely saying it won't work and won't happen.

AlekSmart

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I call what goes on here among a cohort of posters ranting because that's exactly what it is, no facts or evidence can ever be good enough for them.

At the same time this cohort claims anybody who disagrees with them is "ranting".

At the heart of that hypocrisy is an authoritarian attempt by the "open it up" cult to shout down anybody who disagrees with them.

That's not a surprise given the clear links to far right politics among so much of the worldwide Covid denier lobby, it's exactly what you'd expect.

Could you define your "Worldwide Covid Denier" ?

aziz

titan18 wrote: »

Very Irish of us to roll out a system that is immediately useless.

Like the short lived 5 levels of restrictions

the kelt

AlekSmart wrote: »

Could you define your "Worldwide Covid Denier" ?

Basically anyone who believes our opening up plan is too slow :rolleyes:

FileNotFound

the kelt wrote: »

Basically anyone who believes our opening up plan is too slow :rolleyes:

What plan do we have. I think most are angry at the lack of any actual plan beyond "Not yet".

If MM simply put a figure on vaccination % pre opening of X, Y & Z we could all work to it.

Simple concept but seems He and cueball are incapable of simple straight forward planning. Even with a guide to the future across the water,

Parachutes

Seems NPHET’s only mandate nowadays is to keep itself relevant. Their modelling and predictions are absolutely insane.

AlekSmart

TomTomTim wrote: »

The same science that initially told us not to wear masks?

There is only ONE science !!!! :mad:

AlekSmart

Multipass wrote: »

I’m looking forward to this - it’s going to be fun carrying around your papers, it’ll be a joke by the end of the first night.

Lot to be said for a bit of Principle......

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-57722072

Anybody remember the sound of " Bittersweet Symphony" rolling over the Slane fields....

bloopy

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1412088112856145924

Looks like we are going down a papers please route.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0705/1233041-covid-19/

With a hint of things to come?

Mr Martin added that it was too early to say whether vaccine certificates will be needed for other activities beyond indoor dining, but recalled that it was Government policy not to implement vaccine certificates up until advice was received from NPHET last week.

Ballynally

Chris whitty, CMO of the UK supported lifting restrictions saying basically (im paraphrasing) that delaying it would simply postponing further infections and that would coincide w the flu season. There is a point in letting Delta go through society and taking it on the chin in the summertime w the schools closed and 60% fully vaccinated.
That was actually an argument made before except now we have vaccine backup so the equation is a much more positive one .The more people getting infected NOW the more will be protected against new variants. The argument to keep restrictions for Ireland means we might just shift it into a danger zone at exactly the wrong time, leading to further restrictions.
It is quite a brave move by the UK. Reckless, according to others.
You can argue both ways.
Personally i can still see a good argument for wearing masks in busy indoor settings and not letting 50.000 people attend a football match.
They are pushing their luck imo..

Parachutes

bloopy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1412088112856145924

Looks like we are going down a papers please route.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0705/1233041-covid-19/

With a hint of things to come?

Mr Martin added that it was too early to say whether vaccine certificates will be needed for other activities beyond indoor dining, but recalled that it was Government policy not to implement vaccine certificates up until advice was received from NPHET last week.

You’re hiding unvaccinated people under the floorboards, aren’t you?

Hurrache

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Given that, as you said yourself earlier today, lots of people aren't wearing them "properly" anyway, about the only purpose is to act as a placebo for some, and for others to be seen to be doing something.

We weren't wearing them this time last year and yet cases and actual hospitalisation and deaths were at minimal numbers, and yet even with them and social distancing and all the other restrictions, cases increased anyway in the autumn.

Maybe they're just not that effective!

Ah sure why did we bother with them at all and instead cater for the lowest common denominator..

As for "maybe they're not that effective", you're digging yourself even deeper with that.

bloopy

Parachutes wrote: »

You’re hiding unvaccinated people under the floorboards, aren’t you?

Nope.
Out in the keg room.

UK being pragmatic, as usual.

Accept that cases will rise. Accept that some hospitalizations and deaths will occur. But when is there ever a perfect point to release restrictions.

It makes sense.

I just cannot see Michael Martin following Boris Johnson's courage.

Degag

Interesting what this will mean for hotel dining. An un-vaccinated person can currently dine in one. Will this change and they will now need to be vaccinated?!

Surely not!

DarkJager21

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Hope I am wrong but seems the UK are taking unnecessary risks.

A few colleagues today said similar to me.

I just hope the “great Bozza Jozza” takes full responsibility if it goes down the sh1tter...

I hope it goes fantastically well for them, giving the people their lives back and ending the bull****. And soon enough we can then point to their success and tell Tony and his gang of ****ing chancers, spoofers and snakes to finally get the **** out of our lives with their utter bollixology.

Richard Hillman

Even if we went the NPHET way and locked down everything until after Christmas. The people who will die from Covid or Covid variants will die anyway, even if we fully open now. The virus will get them eventually.

There are a cohort that will always be susceptible to the virus. The vaccine will not help them.

We can't save everybody, this has to be accepted. And we have to stop playing politics about it.

Beechwoodspark

[Deleted User] wrote: »

UK being pragmatic, as usual.

Accept that cases will rise. Accept that some hospitalizations and deaths will occur. But when is there ever a perfect point to release restrictions.

It makes sense.

I just cannot see Michael Martin following Boris Johnson's courage.

Courage? or reckless populism?, remains to be seen...

Degag

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Courage? or reckless populism?, remains to be seen...

It certainly isn't courage. I hope it goes well for them all the same.

PTH2009

Have to feel NPHET and The Government will reach a deal with the Hospitality bodies to allow Indoor Dining but there going make it as confusing and complicated as possible

Paper passwords yep that will me work !!! Nope it will be a disaster

charlie14

eskimohunt wrote: »

UK being pragmatic, as usual.

Accept that cases will rise. Accept that some hospitalizations and deaths will occur. But when is there ever a perfect point to release restrictions.

It makes sense.

I just cannot see Michael Martin following Boris Johnson's courage.

Some felt the UK was being pragmatic at the outset of this pandemic when they were chasing naturally acquired herd immunity, and that did not work out too well.
More toss of a coin now than pragmatism imho.

lawred2

Your papers please!!?

Joke

Long time lurker, first time poster.
Important point regarding the UK, and the announcement - is the below quote:
"We must be honest with ourselves that if we can't reopen our society in the next few weeks - when we will be helped by the arrival of summer, and by the school holidays - then we must ask ourselves 'when will we be able to return to normal?'," the prime minister added.

We all know winter (and school return) assists respiratory infections, if we can't open in summer, are we going to be able to do so in winter? If not, then will we be able to open next summer?
The next question is, can we stay open over winter?

pc7

Ballynally wrote: »

They are pushing their luck imo..

And what’s worse if it goes ars8ways it’ll be used here as ‘we told you so’.
It really is a live experiment. Hope it works out for them.

Parachutes

I’d go out on a limb and say they’ll be grand. There will be no overflowing hospitals and the sky won’t fall down.

If it does go tits up it just proves the vaccines are ****ing useless.

growleaves

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.