Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Hello Moto GP

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Nah, you're wrong there... Holohan will keep Pubs/clubs/restaurants closed indefinitely... the trade is finished in Ireland, along with live music unless audiences are in sheep pens...

And the reason? The "Omicron Variant" or suchlike..

He really is the most hated man in Ireland right about now.

FileNotFound

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Nah, you're wrong there... Holohan will keep Pubs/clubs/restaurants closed indefinitely... the trade is finished in Ireland, along with live music unless audiences are in sheep pens...

And the reason? The "Omicron Variant" or suchlike..

As much as it sounds far stretched - one has to consider the reality that we will not open until late August Spetmeber.

This coinciding with Uni/School return will result in case surge.

Then we reclose some sectors due to not understanding opening all at once does this.

Then we hit xmas and the hospitals already under strain from the usual xmas doses get a extra dose of covid while immune systems are low and we start wondering where to go.

I mean if you cannot open with less than 100 cases in hospital and 70% of the adult population at least half vaccinated in mid summer it begs the question when will they deem it ok.


Mind you I expect the Uk to plug ahead and show we made a mistake delaying, one that MM's party will pay for at the next election.

FileNotFound

DarkJager21 wrote: »

I don't think even the government are stupid enough to even entertain ideas of another lockdown. There's 2 showstoppers that will immediately surface if there were even whispers of that:

1) Mass civil disobedience/potential riots - well deserved outcome if they even suggest such a course of action but highly unlikely given how spineless the majority of the public appear to be. "Fighting Irish" my hole.

2) The magic money tree paying for all of Tonys desires for a teetotal and joyless society withers and dies - this is the most likely scenario that will bring an end to NPHET and their influence.

I wouldn't expect either, they can still borrow - all they do is damage the coming years where we may have used this for better and leave us taxed to the hilt to pay it off.

Also once you use keeping other things open people will generally swallow most things

Hello Moto GP

FileNotFound wrote: »

As much as it sounds far stretched - one has to consider the reality that we will not open until late August Spetmeber.

This coinciding with Uni/School return will result in case surge.

Then we reclose some sectors due to not understanding opening all at once does this.

Then we hit xmas and the hospitals already under strain from the usual xmas doses get a extra dose of covid while immune systems are low and we start wondering where to go.

I mean if you cannot open with less than 100 cases in hospital and 70% of the adult population at least half vaccinated in mid summer it begs the question when will they deem it ok.


Mind you I expect the Uk to plug ahead and show we made a mistake delaying, one that MM's party will pay for at the next election.

But are they going to alter the numbers this time around again to community transition when the schools were clearly driving up the numbers and people believing on this thread that you can't get Covid in schools.

MOH

seamus wrote: »

The reopening of indoor dining last Summer, led directly to the surge in cases that required us to re-impose restrictions again in early October.

There you go again perpetuating the same lie. No, it didn't.

I can't be bother looking up the exact dates yet again, but:
Indoor hospitality opened somewhere around June 28th, so go back to a week before that.
At that point the positive rate over the previous 7 days was 0.6%.
(last column in the linked stats)

A month later, that had increased to a whopping .... 0.3%.
Oh wait, the percentage of positive tests actually halved during the first month hospitality was open.

It spiked to 1.8% over the August bank holiday then started steadily decreasing again. Which is an odd thing to see if we're in a runaway surge caused by hospitality.

It made it back down to 1.2%, then schools opened.
A month after schools opened it was 2.9% and kept on going up until we went back into lockdown.

So:
indoor hospitality - rate continues on downward trend, briefly spikes for bank holiday, resumes downward trend
schools - rate doubles in three weeks, keeps going until just before level 5 introduced.

There's only one of those two that "led directly to the surge in cases". And it wasn't indoor dining.

Responder XY

Hello Moto GP wrote: »

But are they going to alter the numbers this time around again to community transition when the schools were clearly driving up the numbers and people believing on this thread that you can't get Covid in schools.

Why do people keep saying this? Nobody believes you can't get Covid in schools. But obviously it's a place where risks can be mitigated to the point where it's safe enough to keep them open. When they re-opened they had no impact on the downward trend earlier this year.

Quite aside from the obvious harm to the kids' development with keeping them closed, the fact that U-18s don't really get bad Covid should be enough reason to not close them again.

FileNotFound

Hello Moto GP wrote: »

But are they going to alter the numbers this time around again to community transition when the schools were clearly driving up the numbers and people believing on this thread that you can't get Covid in schools.

I assume it won't be explained at all so people can make up their own versions.
We don't get many good specifics from NPHET or Gov these days.

Just the absolute worst case scenarios on models they admit aren't well put together.

As someone who has followed the rules to a T and then some its sad to see.

Tenzor07

DarkJager21 wrote: »

I don't think even the government are stupid enough to even entertain ideas of another lockdown. There's 2 showstoppers that will immediately surface if there were even whispers of that:
1) Mass civil disobedience/potential riots - well deserved outcome if they even suggest such a course of action but highly unlikely given how spineless the majority of the public appear to be. "Fighting Irish" my hole.
2) The magic money tree paying for all of Tonys desires for a teetotal and joyless society withers and dies - this is the most likely scenario that will bring an end to NPHET and their influence.

I think you're wrong on point 1, the Irish populace had supported the rule of the British (only a small group of unsupported rebels didn't), the rule of De Valera and his idealised rural/agricultural society, and the catholic church running most of the country, all without much protest...

300 people showed up at an Anti-lockdown march and were called "Anti-vaxx'ers, TinFoil hat brigade and left wing nutjobs"

Have been a number of very civil protests at the Dail but not a hint of trouble, of which the Gardai would crush mercilessly anyways..

So more lockdowns are coming and that's that.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

If you're fully vaccinated and/or you've had the virus already, why do you need to go around wearing a mask, particularly outdoors? Am I missing something?

Our of respect for others.

There multiple types of protection from the vaccine.

1. You are completely protected and can't get the virus.
2. You will still get an infection but will be protected from the vast majority of symptoms.

Most vaccines give a significant amount of the first protection and a degree of the second.

That is to say that there's a reasonable chance you can catch an infection and transmit it to others. If they are vaccinated they will have their own protection (both from infection and from symptoms) but unvaccinated people will not.

FileNotFound

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

If you're fully vaccinated and/or you've had the virus already, why do you need to go around wearing a mask, particularly outdoors? Am I missing something?

Vaccine and immunity give you just that - Immunity.

Then for this to be useful you actually have to get covid again and it will reproduce in your body before your body reacts

Depending on the person the body can react fast - never know you had it. Or react slow and you can become symptomatic (or more accurately transmissible).

Either way you still get covid again and again. Immunity is not a magical cloak

Tchaikovsky

I suppose the question is then, when or where does it end for social distancing and mask wearing?

Leftwaffe

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

I suppose the question is then, when or where does it end for social distancing and mask wearing?

Here it won’t end for another year or two. It will be abandoned all across the Europe long before it’s gone here.

FileNotFound

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

I suppose the question is then, when or where does it end for social distancing and mask wearing?

Great question, vaccine efficacy means we will continue to have covid deaths for years to come but they will be in line or marginally higher than flu related for example.

Realistically I would have thought that once the adult populous is vaccinated we should progress to normality.

At risk defended best we can with a vaccine - any who get it and die after a shot is out of our control.
Low to no risk for lower ages means we can vaccinate but will have little impact beyond case numbers with no negative outcomes.
Variants galore may come but thats life, flu does it all the time.

I guess we have gotten to the point that one could argue we have become carried away with this and forgotten the aims of lockdowns, masks and social distancing.

Honestly I imagine that this will be dragged out to next year, some people seem to enjoy life being on hold, whether its WFH, PUP payments, wallowing in misery and feel any risk is too much risk.

I think I read somewhere that we are now at greater risk of dying if we drive 50km a day than of covid...

I'd say the masks and distancing are definitely here for the year unless the UK show really good results. Our lad be afraid of making the call.

MOH

MOH wrote: »

There you go again perpetuating the same lie. No, it didn't.

I can't be bother looking up the exact dates yet again, but:
Indoor hospitality opened somewhere around June 28th, so go back to a week before that.
At that point the positive rate over the previous 7 days was 0.6%.
(last column in the linked stats)

A month later, that had increased to a whopping .... 0.3%.
Oh wait, the percentage of positive tests actually halved during the first month hospitality was open.

It spiked to 1.8% over the August bank holiday then started steadily decreasing again. Which is an odd thing to see if we're in a runaway surge caused by hospitality.

It made it back down to 1.2%, then schools opened.
A month after schools opened it was 2.9% and kept on going up until we went back into lockdown.

So:
indoor hospitality - rate continues on downward trend, briefly spikes for bank holiday, resumes downward trend
schools - rate doubles in three weeks, keeps going until just before level 5 introduced.

There's only one of those two that "led directly to the surge in cases". And it wasn't indoor dining.

You are assuming positive rate is a measure of virus in circulation. It is only so when testing criteria is constant. It changed massively in that time period. What was constant over that entire time period was the rate of increase.

Furze99

Responder XY wrote: »

Well for what it's worth, I'll take whatever vaccine I'm offered when the time comes. So will everyone my age that I know. (been trying in vain to get into a pharmacy - looks like I have to wait)

I still think you are letting frustrations with what has happened with Delta cloud your judgement on what was the right decision at the time and your thinking is not rational. AZ was available to over 60s - with one dose it prevented severe illness against all known strains of Covid. AZ could not be used on lower age groups due to emerging evidence of harm to them being possible. Therefore the entirely right decision to use AZ on those it was safe to use it on was made and reserve other vaccines for those whom it may not have been safe to use AZ on (again further evidence on the saftey has emerged in the meantime - but you can only act on what you know at the time).

As it turned out, the arithmetic behind that decision was completely sound. I was sceptical myself at the time, but it made best use of scarce vaccine resources. If Pfizer/Modera was used for over 60s, AZ does would have gone to waste and the whole program would be further delayed, which would not leave us in a better position today.

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

Multipass

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

I suppose the question is then, when or where does it end for social distancing and mask wearing?

It’ll fizzle out slowly - it’s already starting to. I regularly see people paying for petrol without them, it’ll get chipped away on those kind of quick stops, and eventually spread to bigger shops. There’s an element of herd mentality, once one or two start the trend, others will get braver. I don’t know anyone who actually wants to wear the things anymore.

Hurrache

You mean you actually knew people who wanted to wear them?

They're a necessity, not a desire.

MOH

Deleted User wrote: »

You are assuming positive rate is a measure of virus in circulation. It is only so when testing criteria is constant. It changed massively in that time period. What was constant over that entire time period was the rate of increase.

I'm not assuming anything, but it's the only figure in that data that's remotely valid for comparison

(BTW it's also one that has been used by NPHET on numerous occasions precisely as a comparative measure as to how the virus is progressing)

I'm not sure exactly how the testing criteria "changed massively" during that period? As far as I know, we were still only ever testing based on people with potential symptoms having a referral from a GP, and close contacts of confirmed cases.

I don't know what you mean by "the rate of increase" - of what?
Because if you mean just 7-day cases, that makes no sense.
You can't just base whether things are getting better or worse on that, when the number of tests is varying dramatically.

Week 1: Test 1000 people. Get 500 cases.
Week 2: Test 10000 people. Get 600 cases. Oh no! Things are getting worse!
Week 3: test 100 people. Get 100 cases. Phew! Everything is much better!

Leftwaffe

Restaurant representative on Drivetime just now saying it’s gonna be a paper based vaccine pass for indoor dining. 1.8m letters or emails proposed to go out in the next 7 to 10 days. App would take months.

Surely that is pointless? There will people scamming the system left right and centre. I’m not vaccinated but no way my publican is gonna stop me from going indoors. Fake email away ya go.

Royale with Cheese

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Restaurant representative on Drivetime just now saying it’s gonna be a paper based vaccine pass for indoor dining. 1.8m letters or emails proposed to go out in the next 7 to 10 days. App would take months.

Surely that is pointless? There will people scamming the system left right and centre. I’m not vaccinated but no way my publican is gonna stop me from going indoors. Fake email away ya go.

Shhh, don't tell Tony that.

Responder XY

Furze99 wrote: »

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

I'm not in LaLa land. I get it you are angry. I might be too in your boat. But somethings things happen which are outside of anyones control. I think you are letting the personal impact of the arrival of Delta cloud your judgement.

That circumstances have changed doesn't make the decision that was taken back when it was taken wrong. it was the right decision at the time.

To address your other point, there is every point in taking second dose of AZ - it's perfectly effective and won't have to be suplemented by a mRNA vaccine. (not to say boosters won't be required in time - but there's no way to say right now if either AZ or mRNA or both will need that.)

MOR316

Hurrache wrote: »

You mean you actually knew people who wanted to wear them?

They're a necessity, not a desire.

Why do your posts have such an angry tone to them?
If it were in person, I'd feel as if you were trying to deck someone

FileNotFound

Furze99 wrote: »

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

When i hear of the 60-69 group i wonder why they don't just give them all a J&J jab and be done with it.

Would be quick effective and if we are giving it to no risk 18 year olds surely we have enough to get this done fast.

SnuggyBear

Hurrache wrote: »

You mean you actually knew people who wanted to wear them?

They're a necessity, not a desire.

Have you not read the mask thread?

TomTomTim

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Have you not read the mask thread?

Or seen the millions of social media accounts, where people wear masks in their avatars with great pride.

FileNotFound

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Have you not read the mask thread?

I would try not to confuse wanting to do the best thing with wanting to wear a mask

I assume many supported mask wearing as the science supported it.

Hurrache

MOR316 wrote: »

Why do your posts have such an angry tone to them?
If it were in person, I'd feel as if you were trying to deck someone

Disdain, not to be confused with anger.

Multipass

FileNotFound wrote: »

When i hear of the 60-69 group i wonder why they don't just give them all a J&J jab and be done with it.

Would be quick effective and if we are giving it to no risk 18 year olds surely we have enough to get this done fast.

I don’t understand why they don’t pause the 30s, and give the over 60s an mRNA vaccine. They are multiples more at risk, they deserve the most effective vaccine.

TomTomTim

FileNotFound wrote: »

I would try not to confuse wanting to do the best thing with wanting to wear a mask

I assume many supported mask wearing as the science supported it.

The same science that initially told us not to wear masks?

KrustyUCC

Multipass wrote: »

I don’t understand why they don’t pause the 30s, and give the over 60s an mRNA vaccine. They are multiples more at risk, they deserve the most effective vaccine.

We don't mix vaccines here at the moment