Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Ice Albatross

I'd expect that to rise in winter when viral loads will be higher, but all the more reason to open fully now

Ballynally

pc7 wrote: »

And what’s worse if it goes ars8ways it’ll be used here as ‘we told you so’.
It really is a live experiment. Hope it works out for them.

My comment about 'pushing their luck' was made in the context of lifting ALL restrictions. I think the majority of british people are actually not in favour of mass events and abandonning face masks indoors, at least not yet.
You could go for a more gradual proces, given the Delta variant not a complete free reign. There are still at least some frailties Delta might explore. What i mean to say is that not all questions have been anwered.
Anyway, what i DO appreciate is the emphasis on personal responsibility.
Take care of yourself, wear a mask if you want, avoid busy places if you feel you need to. The 60+ person does not really want to hang out with the 20 year olds and visa versa. I can see a niche appearing.
Vully vaxxed pub only but it would probably be illegal.

Many of the people demanding hospitality open in Ireland are the same people condemning Boris Johnson for lifting restrictions.

It's amazing what politics can do to an individual's perspective.

Timmy O Toole

You'd swear he is after making it illegal to wear a mask ffs

Multipass

Degag wrote: »

Interesting what this will mean for hotel dining. An un-vaccinated person can currently dine in one. Will this change and they will now need to be vaccinated?!

Surely not!

They can stay in the hotel but must not enter the dining room :pac:

HalfAndHalf

Ballynally wrote: »

My comment about 'pushing their luck' was made in the context of lifting ALL restrictions. I think the majority of british people are actually not in favour of mass events and abandonning face masks indoors, at least not yet.
You could go for a more gradual proces, given the Delta variant not a complete free reign. There are still at least some frailties Delta might explore. What i mean to say is that not all questions have been anwered.
Anyway, what i DO appreciate is the emphasis on personal responsibility.
Take care of yourself, wear a mask if you want, avoid busy places if you feel you need to. The 60+ person does not really want to hang out with the 20 year olds and visa versa. I can see a niche appearing.
Vully vaxxed pub only but it would probably be illegal.

I take it you’ve not been watching Wimbledon tonight with the young British wan playing. Full capacity so I’d say people are up for back to normal.

Beechwoodspark

lawred2 wrote: »

Your papers please!!?

Joke

It’s either that or no indoor dining, that’s the choice

brickster69

eskimohunt wrote: »

Many of the people demanding hospitality open in Ireland are the same people condemning Boris Johnson for lifting restrictions.

It's amazing what politics can do to an individual's perspective.

And if the UK get it wrong there is no chance Ireland will open anything till Christmas :pac::pac:

Parachutes

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

You'd swear he is after making it illegal to wear a mask ffs

My glasses only work if you wear yours.

Whatsisname

growleaves wrote: »

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.

It’s actually funny PHE’s data shows the vaccines are actually MORE effective on Delta than Alpha but it’s just completely ignored by the Irish media and government.

ixoy

eskimohunt wrote: »

Many of the people demanding hospitality open in Ireland are the same people condemning Boris Johnson for lifting restrictions.

To be fair, lifting all restrictions is different to asking for just hospitality to be opened whilst keeping other restrictions (e.g. masks on public transport).

DarkJager21

growleaves wrote: »

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.

In 5 months it has managed to kill a terrifying 73 people out of 60k plus cases in an economy far more open than ours, remind me again what figures NPHET pulled out of their holes for 3 months?? Let’s play a fun game actually - on page 10, look at the stats and let’s guess what the winter boogeyman one will be, my money is on Kappa

HalfAndHalf

brickster69 wrote: »

And if the UK get it wrong there is no chance Ireland will open anything till Christmas :pac::pac:

And then we won’t at Xmas as it’ll be winter and every sniffle, cold and flu symptom will be Covid!

Ballynally

growleaves wrote: »

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.

I am not going to argue about the numbers.
What i will say however, that it is impossible to calculate.
The reason being that the control group is not the same.
In statistics, if you cannot have the same control group you cannot derive any conclusions.
Now, i havent seen the NHS data and i suspect they use it in the context of the changed variables. So, at this point in time, such and such a percentage of people do get infected, go to hospital and die compared to the first virus.
It would be a real test if you have a control group devided in half, one given Alpha, one given Delta.
It would be obviously immoral to do such a test. Nazi Germany comes to mind.
But IF, the NHS nrs w be different i think.
Having said that, variants tend to turn less lethal over time. It just needs to spread more. The timeframe there is uncertain.

Timmy O Toole

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It’s either that or no indoor dining, that’s the choice

No it's not "the choice". Ireland will be the only country in the world allowing only vaccinated people.

Hello Moto GP

I'm not exaggerating when I say the government has done literally nothing right in the last 15 months RE covid. Not one thing. They overreacted when they didn't need to, they undereacted when they should have done something, they employed solutions which made the situation worse, they got rid of things which would have helped. They literally could not have bollocksed things worse if they were trying, you'd need laser focus and maximum effort to intentionally make as much of a hames as they did.
But not only that, can you think of an area of society that is NOT currently engulfed in flames, even covid aside?
Housing: disaster.
Healthcare: catastrophe.
Homelessness: dreadful.
Drug addiction: soaring.
Violent crime: off the charts.
National debt: ballooning.
Sexually transmitted diseases: exploding.
Cyber security: non-existent.
Defence forces: crumbling.
Border control: terrible.
Agriculture: hammered.
Fishing: shafted.
Third level education rankings: plummeting.
Taxpayer money: massively wasted on a regular basis, everything ends up going HUGELY overbudget and delivered late (St. James' Hospital, Rural Broadband, Sewage Treatment Plant, etc.)
The list goes on and on. Literally, every single area of human life that matters is getting worse at a rate of knots. I'd love to ask a government minister to name one substantial thing that they or their party have contributed to Irish society and not effed up being all recognition. Just one.
They'd probably say something like "Promoting equality" (whatever the hell that means) or talk about woke Marxist social issues that fundamentally don't matter and are just used to distract from their painful blinding incompetence. When people start to cop on to what's happening they wave a referendum in front of our face about some totally unnecessary tripe to keep us all occupied.
Honestly, I cannot stress this enough. Every single thing these people touches turns to dirt.

_Kaiser_

Hurrache wrote: »

Ah sure why did we bother with them at all and instead cater for the lowest common denominator..

That's arguably what we did - catered to the "we must do something!" mob on social media who were outraged that we weren't wearing masks like other places.

So, we did.. (funny though how we're not as good as following other places when it comes to lifting these restrictions again though!)

As for "maybe they're not that effective", you're digging yourself even deeper with that.

Not at all.. Many people don't wear them correctly (as you said yourself), don't store them correctly, don't clean the reusable ones, and in general only comply because of the threat of fines and prosecution.

As such, they seem to make very little difference to the spread of the virus either way. No masks this time last year and yet we had very few cases and even less hospitalisation or deaths despite the country being more open than it is now.

How do you account for that?

Plus if they were so effective, don't you think people WOULD be wearing them correctly and at all times?

Or is it maybe that covid itself isn't that dangerous to the majority of people in this country after all?*


(* you don't need to answer that one. 15 months of data has already done that!)

growleaves

Ballynally wrote: »

I am not going to argue about the numbers.
What i will say however, that it is impossible to calculate.
The reason being that the control group is not the same.
In statistics, if you cannot have the same control group you cannot derive any conclusions.
Now, i havent seen the NHS data and i suspect they use it in the context of the changed variables. So, at this point in time, such and such a percentage of people do get infected, go to hospital and die compared to the first virus.
It would be a real test if you have a control group devided in half, one given Alpha, one given Delta.
It would be obviously immoral to do such a test. Nazi Germany comes to mind.
But IF, the NHS nrs w be different i think.
Having said that, variants tend to turn less lethal over time. It just needs to spread more. The timeframe there is uncertain.

Thanks, very insightful post.

_Kaiser_

lawred2 wrote: »

Your papers please!!?

Joke

I remember saying that last year and referencing Cold War era movies, yet here we are.

the kelt

brickster69 wrote: »

And if the UK get it wrong there is no chance Ireland will open anything till Christmas :pac::pac:

True, if it goes tits up in the uk ye might as well write off the rest of the year over here.

If it goes well in the uk, still won’t make a blind bit of difference over here.

lawred2

growleaves wrote: »

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.

That data wasn't available to NPHET I suppose!

corkonion

Deeper Blue wrote: »

So are they on track to open by July 19th or to have a plan by July 19th? There's a huge difference between the two

Its something like " everyone that is eligible will have a vaccine appointment by the end of june"
They just say stuff to keep us compliant, while wallowing in keeping us restricted

Ballynally

Parachutes wrote: »

I’d go out on a limb and say they’ll be grand. There will be no overflowing hospitals and the sky won’t fall down.

If it does go tits up it just proves the vaccines are ****ing useless.

To me it is not a binary choice, neither a "****hole" or 'theyll be grand"
It is, as always, a trade off. The UK government is making a calculated risk from a positive point of view.
Nobody knows the precise outcome but by now it is pretty clear that the war is almost over, at least in the west.
The UK might be heading for operation Market Garden (check yr history) but we will get to Berlin at some near point in the future
( that is, if SarsCov3 wont come knocking on our door)
We are still battling variants, succesfully.

_Kaiser_

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

You'd swear he is after making it illegal to wear a mask ffs

And this is the really strange thing.

Because it will be no longer mandatory, some people are losing their minds rather than just carrying on as they have to this point and continuing to mask up if they want. Nothing wrong with them doing that either.

It seems more that those same people who want the Government to mandate and validate their actions, are now upset because not everyone feels the same way about the issue that they do.

These people should be reminded that the real world isn't Twitter.

Hurrache

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I just cannot see Michael Martin following Boris Johnson's courage.

Jesus Christ, this thread has always been dipping its toes in farce but has really crapped itself with this. It's like people only discovered Johnson today during his press conference.

Fils

Nphet aren’t giving a inch. Have the government the liathroidi to go against them.

corkonion

Furze99 wrote: »

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

Which is a dire reflection on AZ, many European countries have banned its use, and we still can't get enough to give out second doses in a timely fashion, is their whole production facility in a 8x4 garden shed? Thank god for Pfizer, without them we'd be facing a decade of lockdown.

growleaves

Mass mask wearing on a timescale of years is itself an experiment.

Restricting oxygen flow on a daily basis for say three years does... what to your health? No one knows.

But hey 'I thrust the experts' right?

growleaves

Hurrache wrote: »

Jesus Christ, this thread has always been dipping its toes in farce but has really crapped itself with this. It's like people only discovered Johnson today during his press conference.

Whenever I look at him I assume barbers are still closed in UK.

Hurrache

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

That's arguably what we did - catered to the "we must do something!" mob on social media who were outraged that we weren't wearing masks like other places.

So, we did.. (funny though how we're not as good as following other places when it comes to lifting these restrictions again though!)



Not at all.. Many people don't wear them correctly (as you said yourself), don't store them correctly, don't clean the reusable ones, and in general only comply because of the threat of fines and prosecution.

As such, they seem to make very little difference to the spread of the virus either way. No masks this time last year and yet we had very few cases and even less hospitalisation or deaths despite the country being more open than it is now.

How do you account for that?

Plus if they were so effective, don't you think people WOULD be wearing them correctly and at all times?

Or is it maybe that covid itself isn't that dangerous to the majority of people in this country after all?*


(* you don't need to answer that one. 15 months of data has already done that!)

Your logic is terrible, you simply can't, and don't, account for stupidity, of which there continuous to be much of, this thread a prime example.

Your logic is the same as saying if some people don't get themselves vaccinated, then no point vaccinating others.

You even have yourself convinced they were only introduced, the world over, because of Twitter.

It's absurd you're trying to argue the effectiveness of masks because there's some many stupid people who can't figure them out.