Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

DarkJager21

bucketybuck wrote: »

Thats all nice and dandy and all, in theory.

In reality, we have a youth who have been pissed on and taken for granted for 15 months now, pissed on for a decade before that, we are currently telling them that they need to stay restricted for no good reason, that they are last in the queue to get their lives back despite never being at risk from the virus in the first place.

And you want them to be all noble and act to protect a generation that has treated them disgracefully to this point?

Rightly or wrongly my point still stands, it wouldn't surprise me to find that at this point they have disengaged and hold the view that the rest of us can **** right off.

Absolutely, I can see why the youth wouldn't give a **** about Covid at this point. Lose the youth in regards to vaccinations or public health measures and you will never eradicate Covid - great job on that one Tony.

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

Thats all nice and dandy and all, in theory.

In reality, we have a youth who have been pissed on and taken for granted for 15 months now, pissed on for a decade before that, we are currently telling them that they need to stay restricted for no good reason, that they are last in the queue to get their lives back despite never being at risk from the virus in the first place.

And you want them to be all noble and act to protect a generation that has treated them disgracefully to this point?

Rightly or wrongly my point still stands, it wouldn't surprise me to find that at this point they have disengaged and hold the view that the rest of us can **** right off.

this is from Eurosurveillence relating to irish schools.
If the vulnerable are Vaccinated as they so wish, why do children and teenagers need to be too?
Yes t his is more transmissible bus so what, it's up to vulnerable people to decide their own risk, behavior and as
to if they want to take a vaccine.

While this study, based on small numbers, provides limited evidence in relation to COVID-19 transmission in the school setting, it includes all known cases with school attendance in the Republic of Ireland. The results moreover echo the experience of other countries, where children are not emerging as considerable drivers of transmission of COVID-19. Recent population screening studies from Iceland [9] and Italy [10] identified very few cases of COVID-19 disease in children with PCR testing. A report on school-related transmission in New South Wales, Australia, examining the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from 18 confirmed cases (nine students and nine staff) from 15 schools identified only two potential cases of secondary school-based transmission, despite the identification of 863 close contacts [11].

These findings suggest that schools are not a high risk setting for transmission of COVID-19 between pupils or between staff and pupils. Given the burden of closure outlined by Bayhem [4] and Van Lanker [5], reopening of schools should be considered as an early rather than a late measure in the lifting of restriction. Our report includes both the

corkonion

The government have secured a million extra vaccines from Romania, that surely must get us close to heard immunity by late August

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

Turtwig

seamus wrote: »

In another month that's 400 hospitalisations...per day.

This is the key.

What will the rate of hospitalisation be in four to six weeks from now?

wassie

corkonion wrote: »

The government have secured a million extra vaccines from Romania, that surely must get us close to heard immunity by late August

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

To be delivered by a man in a van.

jackboy

corkonion wrote: »

The government have secured a million extra vaccines from Romania, that surely must get us close to heard immunity by late August

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

There cannot be herd immunity this year as we are not vaccinating children.

PowerToWait

namloc1980 wrote: »

This time last year was able to go for an indoor meal and pints for my brother's birthday. If you told me then that in a year's time, with 4.2 million vaccines administered, that we would not be able to do the same thing, I'd have said you were a crazy conspiracy theorist. Yet here we are.

You’re winding yourself up unnecessarily. Take a couple of hours off and go for a few slow ones. No matter how enraged you get it won’t change whatever’s coming.

is_that_so

Italy in "serious" trouble again!


Italy has reported 794 new coronavirus cases and 28 new deaths today.

The figures show a decline in cases and a rise in deaths compared to yesterday, when the figures were 882 and 21.

is_that_so

seamus wrote: »

That's a jump of 100 to 200 per day. Not actually in hospital.

In another month that's 400 hospitalisations...per day.

With positivity down to 2.5% that's fairly unlikely. R0 barely above 1 too.

ednwireland

namloc1980 wrote: »

This time last year was able to go for an indoor meal and pints for my brother's birthday. If you told me then that in a year's time, with 4.2 million vaccines administered, that we would not be able to do the same thing, I'd have said you were a crazy conspiracy theorist. Yet here we are.

i know the feeling !

was on holiday last august when offaly and kildare got closed but it was relatively normal (athlone an waterford) this year im wondering is there any point going anywhere

celt262

bucketybuck wrote: »

Thats all nice and dandy and all, in theory.

In reality, we have a youth who have been pissed on and taken for granted for 15 months now, pissed on for a decade before that, we are currently telling them that they need to stay restricted for no good reason, that they are last in the queue to get their lives back despite never being at risk from the virus in the first place.

And you want them to be all noble and act to protect a generation that has treated them disgracefully to this point?

Rightly or wrongly my point still stands, it wouldn't surprise me to find that at this point they have disengaged and hold the view that the rest of us can **** right off.

What are you rambling about i answered what you said about why the younger generation might want to get a vaccine.

CruelSummer

DarkJager21 wrote: »

Then when we know the boosters work, we'll need to watch other countries to see what the 3-6 month outcomes of those boosters are. And when we reach the point that we know that information, Tony won't be happy with the figures as they weren't compiled by NPHET so we will start our own series of test events - 10 people allowed in to a McDonalds at once for example, and then we will monitor those people for 2 weeks to be cautious before we allow more than 10 people in to mcdonalds. All the while we will be told "2 more weeks" "hold firm" we are all in this together etc etc etc. Sorry but we've been waiting long enough.

Exactly this. Dr Holohan couldn't help but name drop the 'Delta plus' yesterday at the NPHET briefing. His next variant of 'concern'. How do people not see NPHET have no exit strategy from this, nor any desire to present one either?

Their undermining of the vaccination programme re implying people are still 'at risk' is merged by a threat that if you don't get it - you'll be excluded from society and entry into multiple settings.
This is not what a population who did everything they could to combat Covid from the outset - with huge vaccination uptake, should be presented with after the mess of the last 12 months. What a slap in the face.

redarmy

As of midnight, Thursday 1 July, we are reporting 512* confirmed cases of #COVID19.

14 in ICU. 46 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.

is_that_so

redarmy wrote: »

As of midnight, Thursday 1 July, we are reporting 512* confirmed cases of #COVID19.

14 in ICU. 46 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.

Think those hospital numbers have been much the same for most of this week.

is_that_so

Some UK data seeing as it's so important to our modelling. Looks flat.


UK government figures show that 27,125 new people tested positive for coronavirus today and in the last week cases have risen by 74%.

There were 27 new covid deaths today and 304 people were in hospital with coronavirus. In the last week, 123 people have died - an increase of 11.8% on the previous seven days.

Economics101

redarmy wrote: »

As of midnight, Thursday 1 July, we are reporting 512* confirmed cases of #COVID19.

14 in ICU. 46 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.

The Covid tracker app (handy for tracking daily case numbers) has not been updated in 4 days. Wake up guys!

seamus

is_that_so wrote: »

With positivity down to 2.5% that's fairly unlikely. R0 barely above 1 too.

It's fairly set in stone at this point that hospitalisations in the UK will be doubled by the start of August. The infections that will occur over the next 2-3 weeks are already seeded.

Beyond that, we don't know. Vaccinations could kick in, or if they proceed with July 19th that could make it worse.

An R0 of 1.3 when cases are climbing doesn't tell you that things are OK. Positivity rate of 2.5% sounds OK except when you realise that last week the positivity rate was 1.4%.

Case-wise, the UK (England especially) is completely fvcked at this stage. Once again they are a giant petri dish, taking the unwalked path and seeing what happens so the rest of us can take heed.

Cases will top out eventually of course, they always do. But until they do we don't really know what to expect. We don't have the data to tell us what happens when you let this thing run rampant in a country where the most vulnerable half are vaccinated.

The "Nothing to see here" narrative that some have around the UK is bizarre. We know that they're at the start of another huge wave of infection. What we don't know is the impact it will have. We can't even make an educated guess.

Wolf359f

is_that_so wrote: »

With positivity down to 2.5% that's fairly unlikely. R0 barely above 1 too.

Their 7 day PCR positivity rate is up to 4.6% now in England, up from 3% a week previously.

zackory

seamus wrote: »

That's a jump of 100 to 200 per day. Not actually in hospital.

In another month that's 400 hospitalisations...per day.

Except its not as more people are getting vaccinated or infected so the herd immunity tipping point will pass.

Oranage2

Turning into a joke now, the country needs to open up, this forever lockdown is needless, Nphet need to begone

Atlantic Dawn

Oranage2 wrote: »

Turning into a joke now, the country needs to open up, this forever lockdown is needless, Nphet need to begone

Our current approach is devaluing the effectiveness of the vaccines to being worthless which they are not.

is_that_so

seamus wrote: »

It's fairly set in stone at this point that hospitalisations in the UK will be doubled by the start of August. The infections that will occur over the next 2-3 weeks are already seeded.

Beyond that, we don't know. Vaccinations could kick in, or if they proceed with July 19th that could make it worse.

An R0 of 1.3 when cases are climbing doesn't tell you that things are OK. Positivity rate of 2.5% sounds OK except when you realise that last week the positivity rate was 1.4%.

Case-wise, the UK (England especially) is completely fvcked at this stage. Once again they are a giant petri dish, taking the unwalked path and seeing what happens so the rest of us can take heed.

Cases will top out eventually of course, they always do. But until they do we don't really know what to expect. We don't have the data to tell us what happens when you let this thing run rampant in a country where half are vaccinated.

The "Nothing to see here" narrative that some have around the UK is bizarre. We know that they're at the start of another huge wave of infection. What we don't know is the impact it will have. We can't even make an educated guess.

Doubling from 302 is hardly much of a concern. The problem is we have guesswork driving our own policies despite health professionals here and elsewhere pointing out that link to hospitals has largely been broken through vaccinations. That poses the question about what a new wave of infections is. Is it another hospital overload of effectively just a cold? The form is a problem, the latter a ridiculous waste of resources.

hmmm

seamus wrote: »

The "Nothing to see here" narrative that some have around the UK is bizarre. We know that they're at the start of another huge wave of infection. What we don't know is the impact it will have. We can't even make an educated guess.

There's a "mere flesh wound" about some of the debate.

"The UK is fine" - eh, well, we can't say that (yet).
"Hospitalisations aren't increasing" - they are.
"The link between cases and hospitalisation has been broken" - not entirely if you look at the data.

I agree fully with you that we need more data. Anyone who is confident about what is going to happen is making decisions without having the data to back it up. Looks like as you say the UK will be a petri-dish for the rest of us, so there's at least that - let's see how they get on with reopening and that will give us the information we need.

seamus

zackory wrote: »

Except its not as more people are getting vaccinated or infected so the herd immunity tipping point will pass.

If we assume herd immunity is 70%, the UK are 2.5 months away from that point at their current vaccination rate. In order for there to be enough vaccinations and infections, they will need to register about a million new cases in the next 30 days.

Granted, their current 7-day is just over 20k cases a day, so they may indeed add 1m new cases in the next month. What'll that cost?

But that assumes herd immunity is 70%. If it's 80%, you need 1.6m new cases.

namloc1980

seamus wrote: »

It's fairly set in stone at this point that hospitalisations in the UK will be doubled by the start of August. The infections that will occur over the next 2-3 weeks are already seeded.

Beyond that, we don't know. Vaccinations could kick in, or if they proceed with July 19th that could make it worse.

An R0 of 1.3 when cases are climbing doesn't tell you that things are OK. Positivity rate of 2.5% sounds OK except when you realise that last week the positivity rate was 1.4%.

Case-wise, the UK (England especially) is completely fvcked at this stage. Once again they are a giant petri dish, taking the unwalked path and seeing what happens so the rest of us can take heed.

Cases will top out eventually of course, they always do. But until they do we don't really know what to expect. We don't have the data to tell us what happens when you let this thing run rampant in a country where the most vulnerable half are vaccinated.

The "Nothing to see here" narrative that some have around the UK is bizarre. We know that they're at the start of another huge wave of infection. What we don't know is the impact it will have. We can't even make an educated guess.

The UK CMO has said they can proceed with "Freedom Day" and the dropping of the last restrictions on the 19th July. You obviously believe he is grossly misinformed. Why so?

Paddigol

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Our current approach is devaluing the effectiveness of the vaccines to being worthless which they are not.

It's not. I could expand, but seeing as you didn't I won't bother either. But it's not.

RIGOLO

Beasty wrote: »

If you cannot be civil do not post

Shouldnt that really say .

" If you dont toe the line and repeat ad-nauseum what the mods say, you will be banned.... "

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

There's a "mere flesh wound" about some of the debate.

"The UK is fine" - eh, well, we can't say that (yet).
"Hospitalisations aren't increasing" - they are.
"The link between cases and hospitalisation has been broken" - not entirely if you look at the data.

I agree fully with you that we need more data. Anyone who is confident about what is going to happen is making decisions without having the data to back it up. Looks like as you say the UK will be a petri-dish for the rest of us, so there's at least that - let's see how they get on with reopening and that will give us the information we need.

It's health professionals saying that, we mere posters just quote them.

seamus

namloc1980 wrote: »

The UK CMO has said they can proceed with "Freedom Day" and the dropping of the last restrictions on the 19th July. You obviously believe he is grossly misinformed. Why so?

I didn't say he's grossly misinformed. He's obviously not too concerned about what's happening.

Though as we know in this pandemic, life comes at you fast. I believe Chris Witty was quoted as being "cautiously optimistic" at a meeting on Monday. That can all change in 48 hours. Let's see what he thinks on Monday week.

Bit cynical

hmmm wrote: »

There's a "mere flesh wound" about some of the debate.

"The UK is fine" - eh, well, we can't say that (yet).
"Hospitalisations aren't increasing" - they are.
"The link between cases and hospitalisation has been broken" - not entirely if you look at the data.

I agree fully with you that we need more data. Anyone who is confident about what is going to happen is making decisions without having the data to back it up. Looks like as you say the UK will be a petri-dish for the rest of us, so there's at least that - let's see how they get on with reopening and that will give us the information we need.

There's a lot more data than their was, however, and it might be that there's enough now in the UK that accurate modelling can be done and on this basis they can open up without hospitals becoming overwhelmed despite a rise in numbers. If they leave it till longer, then hospitals are going to be busier anyway later in the year and there will be less room to manoeuvre.