Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

hmmm

is_that_so wrote: »

It's health professionals saying that, we mere posters just quote them.

Yes, but I think that's giving a false impression or, at least, some people are exaggerating it. It doesn't mean that hospitalisations are flat-lining.

We're seeing that the number of hospitalisations is way way lower than it would previously have been for the number of cases, but it's still going up, and both curves are going in the same direction. The concern is that if the number of cases continues to increase the smaller number of hospitalisations are still enough to put health systems under pressure.

I don't think anyone can reliably predict what is going to happen just at the moment. In 2 weeks I'd say we will have a lot of good data.

lukas8888

The UK cmo reporting that deaths are now less than 1 per 1000 infections in
comparison to 60 per 1000 in February.

namloc1980

lukas8888 wrote: »

The UK cmo reporting that deaths are now less than 1 per 1000 infections in
comparison to 60 per 1000 in February.

He's wrong though. The experts here have said he's just all wrong.

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

Yes, but I think that's giving a false impression or, at least, some people are exaggerating it. It doesn't mean that hospitalisations are flat-lining.

We're seeing that the number of hospitalisations is way way lower than it would previously have been for the number of cases, but it's still going up, and both curves are going in the same direction. The concern is that if the number of cases continues to increase the smaller number of hospitalisations are still enough to put health systems under pressure.

Given that Christmas is the only time that happened for us that concern seems very misplaced, especially with our level of vaccinations. Our real concern should be the projections that concern is based off.

brickster69

seamus wrote: »

It's fairly set in stone at this point that hospitalisations in the UK will be doubled by the start of August. The infections that will occur over the next 2-3 weeks are already seeded.

That means 2% of UK hospital beds will have a Covid patient in them.

namloc1980

You can sense some posters here are praying and hoping for chaos and massive deaths in the UK just so they can have a "I told you so" moment.

hmmm

namloc1980 wrote: »

You can sense some posters here are praying and hoping for chaos and massive deaths in the UK just so they can have a "I told you so" moment.

It's tough when not everyone agrees with you isn't it? Reading long papers full of data is so boring when it's quicker to just stick your finger in the air. That's why so many people who have been consistently wrong throughout this have made their name putting out Youtube videos for their followers.

namloc1980

hmmm wrote: »

It's tough when not everyone agrees with you isn't it? Reading long papers full of data is so boring when it's quicker to just stick your finger in the air. That's why so many people who have been consistently wrong throughout this have made their name putting out Youtube videos for their followers.

What are you on about? Certain posters are consistently ignoring the UK (& Israeli) data which shows a clear decoupling between cases and severe outcomes. Just sticking their fingers in their ears and screaming and shouting about case numbers.

probably asked already but anyway, how do you prove you've had it and recovered?? in the last 9 months?
there'll be no memory cells, no antibodies etc according to some.do you have to have had a test on the system as positive?

brickster69

namloc1980 wrote: »

You can sense some posters here are praying and hoping for chaos and massive deaths in the UK just so they can have a "I told you so" moment.

Crazy isn't it.

27K cases from 1 Million tests
Spain 12K cases from 90K tests

The only reason apart from being further ahead in this wave people are looking at the UK is because they have transparent figures, so at least they have some sort of clue as to what is happening.

Imagine if they dropped the testing 90% everyone would be delighted because the case numbers fell by 90% and nothing to worry about.

Should be grateful someone knows what they are doing.

hmmm

namloc1980 wrote: »

What are you on about? Certain posters are consistently ignoring the UK (& Israeli) data which shows a clear decoupling between cases and severe outcomes. Just sticking their fingers in their ears and screaming and shouting about case numbers.

"Decoupling" means what to you?

Are hospitalisations in the UK rising, yes or no? Has that anything to do with the number of cases, or what is driving that?

An Ciarraioch

LEA data has been updated for the first time since May.

eagle eye

namloc1980 wrote:

You can sense some posters here are praying and hoping for chaos and massive deaths in the UK just so they can have a "I told you so" moment.

I think you'll find that most of the people who are worried and/or willing to remain cautious actually care about lives and will be depressed if deaths rise even if they predicted it might happen.
It's those spoiled brats who want everything open now that don't care about other people.

brickster69

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

LEA data has been updated for the first time since May.

See what i mean

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

"Decoupling" means what to you?

Are hospitalisations in the UK rising, yes or no? Has that anything to do with the number of cases, or what is driving that?

It depends if you want conscious or unconscious decoupling there Gwyneth:rolleyes:

Zebra3

The data a few months ago was showing the median age of death with Covid was 82 or 83.

You’d wanna be off your rocker to be still panicking about it all at this stage of the vaccination rollout.

Look at the figures for annual deaths from air pollution.

If you wanna do a spot of “protecting the vulnerable”, there’s one to throw your lot in behind.

saabsaab

The next 2 or three weeks will be interesting in the race between vaccines and variants.

Marcusm

Zebra3 wrote: »

The data a few months ago was showing the median age of death with Covid was 82 or 83.

You’d wanna be off your rocker to be still panicking about it all at this stage of the vaccination rollout.

Look at the figures for annual deaths from air pollution.

If you wanna do a spot of “protecting the vulnerable”, there’s one to throw your lot in behind.

Iirc, 99% of all deaths were above 45. 91% were above 65%. Other than vaccine avoiding variants and the impact of long covid, this is a busted flush.

MerlinSouthDub

Amateur modelling post follows....

I reckon our delta cases are currently increasing at 50% a week. We can expect this to continue, but vaccination will reduce the rate of growth each week. We're giving a dose to about 7% of the population each week. Let's assume 7% doses reduces case growth rate by 7%. That's a reasonable-ish assumption, because the vaccines are stopping transmission (not fully, but significantly and very well with 2 doses)

So let's say we have 400 delta cases now. In 4 weeks we'll have 1500 cases a day (50% growth reduced by 7% each week). But the good news is that things will start to decline by mid August and then we'll be fine, if you keep projecting on the same basis. But there is a scary bit over the next few weeks. Don't panic if you see 1000 cases a day - the key thing to watch is if the growth rate starts to decline. I hope the government doesn't panic as we go along.

Looking at the numbers, there is zero chance of indoor dining opening on 19th July. With the way delta is progressing, case numbers will be shooting up and government won't be brave enough to realise it will all be ok.

purplefields

saabsaab wrote: »

The next 2 or three weeks will be interesting in the race between vaccines and variants.

Hopefully vaccines won't cause variants.

It's all looking promising so far though.

jackboy

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Amateur modelling post follows....

I reckon our delta cases are currently increasing at 50% a week. We can expect this to continue, but vaccination will reduce the rate of growth each week. We're giving a dose to about 7% of the population each week. Let's assume 7% doses reduces case growth rate by 7%. That's a reasonable-ish assumption, because the vaccines are stopping transmission (not fully, but significantly and very well with 2 doses)

So let's say we have 400 delta cases now. In 4 weeks we'll have 1500 cases a day (50% growth reduced by 7% each week). But the good news is that things will start to decline by mid August and then we'll be fine, if you keep projecting on the same basis. But there is a scary bit over the next few weeks. Don't panic if you see 1000 cases a day - the key thing to watch is if the growth rate starts to decline. I hope the government doesn't panic as we go along.

Looking at the numbers, there is zero chance of indoor dining opening on 19th July. With the way delta is progressing, case numbers will be shooting up and government won't be brave enough to realise it will all be ok.

Yes. If case numbers rapidly increase we will be back to level 5 lockdown, regardless of hospital numbers. They will not take the chance of riding it out.

I know people don’t want to believe that will happen but look at the decisions taken over the last year and future actions will be predictable.

Dr. Bre

saabsaab wrote: »

The next 2 or three weeks will be interesting in the race between vaccines and variants.

Crucial

hollypink

It just seems baffling to me that the English CMO is backing the lifting of restrictions on 19th July and is "cautiously optimistic" over lifting lock down. And most of Europe seem well ahead of Ireland with relaxing restrictions. But NPHET and CMO are extremely pessimistic about the delta variant and predicting a fourth wave in Europe. I can understand variations in interpretations of data and modelling but to have such opposing views seems bizarre.

Zebra3

hollypink wrote: »

It just seems baffling to me that the English CMO is backing the lifting of restrictions on 19th July and is "cautiously optimistic" over lifting lock down. And most of Europe seem well ahead of Ireland with relaxing restrictions. But NPHET and CMO are extremely pessimistic about the delta variant and predicting a fourth wave in Europe. I can understand variations in interpretations of data and modelling but to have such opposing views seems bizarre.

I think it was Paul Reid said a couple of days ago that he was optimistic. All looking good.

Then there was the absolute fck up between Holohan and Mehole and suddenly it’s the end of the world.

Silentcorner

hollypink wrote: »

It just seems baffling to me that the English CMO is backing the lifting of restrictions on 19th July and is "cautiously optimistic" over lifting lock down. And most of Europe seem well ahead of Ireland with relaxing restrictions. But NPHET and CMO are extremely pessimistic about the delta variant and predicting a fourth wave in Europe. I can understand variations in interpretations of data and modelling but to have such opposing views seems bizarre.

It is a crisis of Government that is doing the damage at this point. The rest of the world are leaving us behind with our severely restricted economy.

We mention it here time and time again but it still needs to be said, the problem is Tony Houlihan, a man who has been CMO for over ten years of one of the worst managed health systems in Europe, with a reputation that was previously clouded in controversy. He has carved out a public image for himself that he clearly is reveling in, couple that with the power and authority our political class have bestowed on him and you get a flawed individual who lacks the intellect to allow differing opinions.

But it goes beyond him, our political system simply cannot cope with a crisis like this, we struggle with self governance.

Our media standards have always been poor but it has descended into the gutter in recent years.

I don't know how this madness ends, you'd need a motion of no confidence in Micheal Martin, a party to pull out of government, a leadership heave...I don't see that happening soon...

This much I know, we will have to wrestle control of this country back off Tony because he ain't letting go anytime soon!

TefalBrain

lukas8888 wrote: »

The UK cmo reporting that deaths are now less than 1 per 1000 infections in
comparison to 60 per 1000 in February.

This is over. The lockdown lovers are desperate for deaths and hospitalizations to increase but that's impossible now with vaccinations working beautifully.

Great times. The end is here.

beaz2018

So we spend all year in restrictions with the most cautious reopening of any country, yet the new wave still comes and impacts us the same as everyone else. Almost as if these waves happen irrespective of lockdown conditions. Anyway on we go, another lockdown in later summer.

saabsaab

TefalBrain wrote: »

This is over. The lockdown lovers are desperate for deaths and hospitalizations to increase but that's impossible now with vaccinations working beautifully.

Great times. The end is here.

May not be the end but is the beginning of the end.

KrustyUCC

lukas8888 wrote: »

The UK cmo reporting that deaths are now less than 1 per 1000 infections in
comparison to 60 per 1000 in February.

Funny our modelling expert told Donnelly it would be 1 per 1000 infections

beaz2018

beaz2018 wrote: »

So we spend all year in restrictions with the most cautious reopening of any country, yet the new wave still comes and impacts us the same as everyone else. Almost as if these waves happen irrespective of lockdown conditions. Anyway on we go, another lockdown in later summer.

Posted the same earlier.

Lockdown is a failed strategy. Sitting in lockdown for the best part of 10 months has achieved nothing.

This country should have been more or less open from March onwards.