Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

OwenM

Deleted User wrote: »

When averaged over a larger sample, such as a full continent, the picture is clear. Euromomo participant countries have an excess death rate (550k)that closely aligns with covid deaths in the area covered (646k).

The fact that excess death rate in Ireland might be below average is irrelevant. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of stats knows that the larger the sample (440m in Euromomo vs 5 million in Ireland), the more accurately you can estimate the true proportion. Local variations average out over a broad area.

Expected cardiovascular deaths within the same countries is 550k per year. Covid, so far, has been a years worth of cardiovascular related deaths. With lockdowns.



Datasources:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://ourworldindata.org/

When averaged over a larger sample

I despair, so the actual numbers don't matter

ingo1984

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you and I echo this. We have extended family out there and they are in strictest lockdown now. This as you rightly say is very serious for India and for the wider world.

No its not. There is zero evidence to suggest it is more dangerous or more transmissible. What is driving the India case numbers is people started ignoring distancing, masks etc and this was driven at governemnt level who were praising they were out of the woods and encouraged people to attend local elections, religious festivals etc. There were 130,000 crammed in for a cricket match for flip sake. Thousands attending religious ceremonies. Sure no wonder cases are on the rise.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

I despair, so the actual numbers don't matter

Why do the actual number s for an entire continent not matter?

OwenM

Deleted User wrote: »

When averaged over a larger sample, such as a full continent, the picture is clear. Euromomo participant countries have an excess death rate (550k)that closely aligns with covid deaths in the area covered (646k).

The fact that excess death rate in Ireland might be below average is irrelevant. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of stats knows that the larger the sample (440m in Euromomo vs 5 million in Ireland), the more accurately you can estimate the true proportion. Local variations average out over a broad area.

Expected cardiovascular deaths within the same countries is 550k per year. Covid, so far, has been a years worth of cardiovascular related deaths. With lockdowns.



Datasources:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://ourworldindata.org/

So all cause mortality is nearly 20% less than declared covid deaths, and you call that closely aligned, that's a deranged statement.

OwenM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why do the actual number s for an entire continent not matter?

I'm talking about the actual numbers for Ireland.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

I'm talking about the actual numbers for Ireland.

In other words you want to ignore what doesn't suit your argument. Common trait.

Why anyone could think that analysis of excess deaths in Europe is not applicable to understanding the actual and potential impacts of the pandemic to Ireland is beyond comprehension. And anyone who claims to understand data but fails to understand that the more data that is included, the less the impact of local variations on the analysis of that data doesn't really understand data

RGS

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Glynn in fairness seems more reasonable - it was the same last year when he was in charge.

When in Tony H due back? You can be sure he will be demanding level 5.x again the instant he's back in charge! :rolleyes:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/dr-tony-holohan-returns-to-work-as-chief-medical-officer-1.4542281


To answer your question hes back at work.

Beanybabog

Does anyone know if the easing of restrictions goes ahead in the next few weeks are we changing level? How can we have outdoor dining and shops and still be called level 5? Have the levels been mentioned at ally I haven’t heard this mentioned and everything I’ve read suggests we are still officially level 5 (passport for baby won’t be processed until out of level 5, otherwise I wouldn’t care).

Sam Wheat90

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It is after 13 months of constant coverage and fear-mongering (don't forget the NPHET worry-o-meter after all) over this virus, despite the actual evidence that shows over 99% of people in this country are at little to no risk from it.

It's variant.. so what? That was inevitable. No need for the media/"experts" to start off yet another round of concern, worry and scare-tactics in an attempt to keep the public "in-line" and themselves in the headlines (and well compensated for the interviews and clicks).

Way off the mark there. Conspiracy theory rubbish.

RGS

RGS wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/dr-tony-holohan-returns-to-work-as-chief-medical-officer-1.4542281


To answer your question hes back at work.

Well he was still getting the blame for every decision over the past two months, so he may as well return so the irrational hatred is actually being directed at someone currently involved in decision making, and not at someone on leave mourning his wife.

Sobit1964

Beanybabog wrote: »

Does anyone know if the easing of restrictions goes ahead in the next few weeks are we changing level? How can we have outdoor dining and shops and still be called level 5? Have the levels been mentioned at ally I haven’t heard this mentioned and everything I’ve read suggests we are still officially level 5 (passport for baby won’t be processed until out of level 5, otherwise I wouldn’t care).

Passports are getting processed at the normal speed in the rest of the EU/UK - Ireland seems unique in this silly measure - what exactly are passport staff doing for their money during this?

timmyntc

Sam Wheat90 wrote: »

Way off the mark there. Conspiracy theory rubbish.

You made a new account just to make that post? :pac:

Sam Wheat90

timmyntc wrote: »

You made a new account just to make that post? :pac:

So what?

FlubberJones

Deleted User wrote: »

Well he was still getting the blame for every decision over the past two months, so he may as well return so the irrational hatred is actually being directed at someone currently involved in decision making, and not at someone on leave mourning his wife.

Well its a cruel world we live in.... And this ongoing disaster has eroded people's sympathy for many things. Someone else's wife passing away has absolutely zero effect on me, and I still dislike him.

Graces7

ingo1984 wrote: »

No its not. There is zero evidence to suggest it is more dangerous or more transmissible. What is driving the India case numbers is people started ignoring distancing, masks etc and this was driven at governemnt level who were praising they were out of the woods and encouraged people to attend local elections, religious festivals etc. There were 130,000 crammed in for a cricket match for flip sake. Thousands attending religious ceremonies. Sure no wonder cases are on the rise.

My medically qualified extended family over there are to be believed in this; while some of what you say is true in the lack of wisdom, so is the fact of this being a more dangerous and more transmissible variant of the virus.


One aspect does not exclude the other!

google and find abundant medical evidence . None so blind of course!

Stheno

Graces7 wrote: »

My medically qualified extended family over there are to be believed in this; while some of what you say is true in the lack of wisdom, so is the fact of this being a more dangerous and more transmissible variant of the virus.


One aspect does not exclude the other!

google and find abundant medical evidence . None so blind of course!

so apart from hearsay, can you provide evidence to back up your claims?

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well he was still getting the blame for every decision over the past two months, so he may as well return so the irrational hatred is actually being directed at someone currently involved in decision making, and not at someone on leave mourning his wife.

Well even if I disagree with NPHETs decisions of extreme caution, they were easier to digest coming from Nolan. I don’t consider my dislike of Holohan irrational.

Sam Wheat90

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Well even if I disagree with NPHETs decisions of extreme caution, they were easier to digest coming from Nolan. I don’t consider my dislike of Holohan irrational.

You should.

paddyisreal

thebaz wrote: »

Lots of good news the past week, and the Indo headlines with more fear inducing stuff about 'Double mutant'. - then goes on to say not sure if it is any more dangerous, and experts warn about not over-reacting and 'Not Freaking out' .
What irresposnible journalism, the Indo was a decent paper now like a red top, anything for a headline or a click.
Ther is already far too much anxiety in our society today.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/2021-to-become-year-of-the-variant-as-double-mutantindian-strain-detected-in-ireland-40333050.html

And people say there is no hidden agenda with the media. Independent and rté have been a disgrace, that headline should of read "new variant in India but vaccine works" but as per usual its scaremongering alarmist bull**** out of them. The lockdown has been mana from heaven for the media industry and they have acted disgracefully promoting fear and angst at every turn.

paddyisreal

paddyisreal wrote: »

And people say there is no hidden agenda with the media. Independent and rté have been a disgrace, that headline should of read "new variant in India but vaccine works" but as per usual its scaremongering alarmist bull**** out of them. The lockdown has been mana from heaven for the media industry and they have acted disgracefully promoting fear and angst at every turn.

The hidden agenda with the media is to get as many people as possible to click their links, buy their newspapers of otherwise support their revenue stream in whatever way possible. If it bleeds it leads. And in spite of what the thread believe, most people understand this and expect the resolution of the majority of issues through Q2. This is the only place I hear "but the variants". The real world not inhabited by rabid naysayers who seek out something to be offended by at every opportunity.

Polar101

paddyisreal wrote: »

And people say there is no hidden agenda with the media.

The clickbait is there for all to see, so the 'agenda' isn't exactly hidden.:)

ypres5

FlubberJones wrote: »

Well its a cruel world we live in.... And this ongoing disaster has eroded people's sympathy for many things. Someone else's wife passing away has absolutely zero effect on me, and I still dislike him.

I don't care about holohans personal life and I mean that in the nicest way. If anything people have weaponized his personal circumstances to try and shame his critics into silence

ypres5

Graces7 wrote: »

My medically qualified extended family over there are to be believed in this; while some of what you say is true in the lack of wisdom, so is the fact of this being a more dangerous and more transmissible variant of the virus.


One aspect does not exclude the other!

google and find abundant medical evidence . None so blind of course!

To quote another recent poster on here. 'My uncle works at Nintendo and he says they're making the Nintendo PlayStation.'

dalyboy

Deleted User wrote: »

The hidden agenda with the media is to get as many people as possible to click their links, buy their newspapers of otherwise support their revenue stream in whatever way possible. If it bleeds it leads. And in spite of what the thread believe, most people understand this and expect the resolution of the majority of issues through Q2. This is the only place I hear "but the variants". The real world not inhabited by rabid naysayers who seek out something to be offended by at every opportunity.

I only take offence when these articles lead to hysteria from a fragile minded minority and then they demand that politicians instigate further restrictions on me , my family , society and businesses.

I believe my “offence” is then truly validated

Penfailed

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you and I echo this. We have extended family out there and they are in strictest lockdown now. This as you rightly say is very serious for India and for the wider world.

I didn't, "rightly say (it) is very serious." All I said was that it's reporting news, not scaremongering. It may well actually be serious...but probably not.

normanoffside

In bad news for relaxation of restrictions Tony is back!

Real Donald Trump

normanoffside wrote: »

In bad news for relaxation of restrictions Tony is back!

Welcome back An Taoiseach

charlie14

ingo1984 wrote: »

No its not. There is zero evidence to suggest it is more dangerous or more transmissible. What is driving the India case numbers is people started ignoring distancing, masks etc and this was driven at governemnt level who were praising they were out of the woods and encouraged people to attend local elections, religious festivals etc. There were 130,000 crammed in for a cricket match for flip sake. Thousands attending religious ceremonies. Sure no wonder cases are on the rise.

Do you not think that perhaps all the media speculation a few weeks back when India`s number were low that they had reached the level of herd immunity may have added to that ?
Even when many of their own experts in the field were warning that there was no real evidence to support the speculation.


In fact is there not a parallel of the same woolly headed India immunity thinking from some here.
Pointing at our present low numbers and the U.K. as reasons we should open up immediately to the same level as the U.K. while ignoring what brought those numbers down and that the U.K. is only at the stage it is at because of their level of vaccinations

Tenzor07

normanoffside wrote: »

In bad news for relaxation of restrictions Tony is back!

Oh great, expect the "2km from home" limit to be reinstated

MHQ for ALL countries.

Schools to resume remote learning

Building sites to close.


Travel/Hospitality to restart in 2023....

The Big Easy

charlie14 wrote: »

Do you not think that perhaps all the media speculation a few weeks back when India`s number were low that they had reached the level of herd immunity may have added to that ?
Even when many of their own experts in the field were warning that there was no real evidence to support the speculation.


In fact is there not a parallel of the same woolly headed India immunity thinking from some here.
Pointing at our present low numbers and the U.K. as reasons we should open up immediately to the same level as the U.K. while ignoring what brought those numbers down and that the U.K. is only at the stage it is at because of their level of vaccinations

I'll tell you what's wooly. Anything comparing what's happening in India to here. In terms of age demographics, poverty rates, population density, health system, testing regime, climate, culture and so forth and so forth.

You may as well be discussing different planets.

But no, use India as a reason to stay in lockdown why don't you?!

People can choose self-imposed lockdown, that's a perfectly valid choice if it's something that doesn't appall you, or maybe even you feel more comfortable in it, you don't need the rest of society there with you to justify that choice however.