Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

dalyboy

DellyBelly wrote: »

They are talking about this so called Indian variant on rte news. Sounds serious. Everytime I feel I see the light at the end of the tunnel a bit of bad news comes out to dampen my optimism..

The timing is almost as if it’s all by design

walus

DellyBelly wrote: »

They are talking about this so called Indian variant on rte news. Sounds serious. Everytime I feel I see the light at the end of the tunnel a bit of bad news comes out to dampen my optimism..

Stop watching RTÉ. That is the best thing you can do right now.

JeffKenna

DellyBelly wrote: »

They are talking about this so called Indian variant on rte news. Sounds serious. Everytime I feel I see the light at the end of the tunnel a bit of bad news comes out to dampen my optimism..

Go for a walk on the beach to clear your head.

FlubberJones

Have to be honest it will be nice to see the shops open again but I have go so used to online shopping it will have little impact on me... Bars open will be great but again if its a jaded experience it will be disappointing but I'll still take advantage again.

My big issue is travelling as both my partner aren't irish we have to travel to see family, myself the UK and my partner Italy, so for us this is what we are constantly watching. We have high hopes for August, so just need to see the vaccine situation continue to improve.... Which it does seem to be, if it is limited and slow and seemingly affected by the slightest disruption.

Penfailed

DellyBelly wrote: »

They are talking about this so called Indian variant on rte news. Sounds serious. Everytime I feel I see the light at the end of the tunnel a bit of bad news comes out to dampen my optimism..

They were talking about it on LBC yesterday evening. This isn't RTE scaremongering and it isn't only Ireland talking about it.

Penfailed

dalyboy wrote: »

The timing is almost as if it’s all by design

Really? Who's designing what?

TomSweeney

PintOfView wrote: »

Your first sentence is inaccurate and misleading (and the rest of your post is fantasy).
You should check out for yourself what the indefinite mask law was about!
Perhaps update the record here with the reality after you check!

Fantasy!? did you see the video of the Canadian politician gaslighting people saying if they have friends over they are "putting lives in danger" - absolute hyperbole drivel.


She wants these people thrown in jail - she is dangerous.


And Fauci basing policy on a "what if" ... not based on evidence or science (whatever that means nowadays, it's just as dogmatic as religion it seems) - dangerous times.

Chris_5339762

Penfailed wrote: »

They were talking about it on LBC yesterday evening. This isn't RTE scaremongering and it isn't only Ireland talking about it.

It is... general thinking out of Israel is that Pfizer works fine on it, maybe with slightly reduced efficacy (similar to South Africa). People are focussing on the fact that its a "double mutant". It doesn't contain any really troublesome looking mutations and both mutations have been proven to be protected against when they appeared in other strains.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

No manoeuvring whatsoever. I think you are trying to read more into that than it warrants.

Again the actual wording. Of the first of three defined categories - ie confirmed, possible and probable.

"Deaths in confirmed COVID-19 case: A death in a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms (including post mortem)". From talking to someone I know well who is a doctor - the last line is taken to read as "irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms (including post mortem) of covid". And that from covid-19 hospital based training.

If you have no "recovery period" before your death and that infection by covid is confirmed by laboratory testing - then there's not really any wriggle room for other interpretations. "Irrespective" does not mean the signs and symptoms of covid do not contribute to the patients death - rather those antecedent causes are not assessed following death once a laboratory confirmation for covid has been undertaken / person has proved positive.

The unstated part of this process is that the certification for all deaths requires a clinical assessment of each case.

I believe you noted earlier that - "there should be no period of complete recovery from Covid-19 between illness and death". The document that is taken from also states that a death due to Covid-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. cancer) and should be counted independently of pre-existing conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19.”

Yes, obviously in ‘irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms’ the ‘of covid’ is implied. The ‘(including post-mortem)’ part refers to a laboratory test confirmed after the patient has died.

I don’t know what you mean when you say antecedent causes are not assessed following a post-mortem positive test result. In a probable/possible case where a lab result is pending after death, the death certificate has already been filled in with Covid listed as contributory or as a cause of death, and the coroner must subsequently be notified with the result of the lab test.

Yes certification for all deaths requires clinical assessment. Covid will be put down as a cause of death if deemed so by the medical professional assessing, but in a number of cases it will not be deemed to be the cause of death, but if a positive test was detected, Covid will be notified on the death cert regardless of cause of death. These are all included in stats released - its not just death certs with Covid as cause of death.

The part about period of complete recovery applies to symptomatic cases - in asymptomatic cases where death occurs a Covid positive lab result means Covid will be recorded on the death cert.

The confusion lies between the WHO guidelines published last April and our subsequent implementation of some of those guidelines (probable/possible cases), but in Ireland, from the beginning, we have included in our stats all mention of Covid on a death cert. In the UK, rather than a ‘full period of recovery’ they put a limit of 28 days from positive test result, countries can deviate from WHO guidelines. We are not following the WHO guidelines to the letter for reporting - actually makes sense to continue the same reporting practice that was adopted in Ireland from the outset, for scientific and recording purposes, and we adopt new guidelines if they can be incorporated.

To be clear, my argument is not made to deny excess deaths. In the UK it’s believed of all death notifications mentioning Covid, 90% have Covid as probable cause of death on cert - no reason to believe it would be hugely different here in Ireland. As to whether ‘cause of death’ is recorded correctly or not in light of the Mayo coroners statement re terminally ill patients - that’s a separate argument, but in light of our reporting method, it’s more likely than not that deaths are overstated in this country, but of course it could be a small proportion of deaths incorrectly categorised, again it’s not an argument to support little to no excess deaths - just against the claim that the coroners office only reports ‘cause of death’ certs to HSPC.

Penfailed

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

It is... general thinking out of Israel is that Pfizer works fine on it, maybe with slightly reduced efficacy (similar to South Africa). People are focussing on the fact that its a "double mutant". It doesn't contain any really troublesome looking mutations and both mutations have been proven to be protected against when they appeared in other strains.

Talking about it and reporting on it is scaremongering now?

Penfailed

Penfailed wrote: »

Talking about it and reporting on it is scaremongering now?

Talking about it in a level headed manner, such as evidenced by NPHET

Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn said the way the Indian variant has been described in various online reports would lead you to think the “world was coming to an end”, but the speculation was inflated and not related to the real-world experience so far.

Dr Cillian De Gascun of the National Virus Reference Laboratory said there was no real world evidence yet that this particular variant was more infectious or more deadly.

OwenM

Deleted User wrote: »

Some real statisticians have look at the data and found massive excess mortality. This data does not include Ireland as our data is not finalised. No doubt we will be told the data is not relevant because <insert bs here>




Included in the graph is a line for Norway, which shows a country that had lockdowns but had no excess deaths. Does they mean they didn't need a lockdown or that the lockdown worked? Where were all their excess deaths caused by lockdown?

Your choice of countries tells a lot about your perspective. Add Sweden to that graph......


mapbox polyline npm

_Kaiser_

Penfailed wrote: »

Talking about it and reporting on it is scaremongering now?

It is after 13 months of constant coverage and fear-mongering (don't forget the NPHET worry-o-meter after all) over this virus, despite the actual evidence that shows over 99% of people in this country are at little to no risk from it.

It's variant.. so what? That was inevitable. No need for the media/"experts" to start off yet another round of concern, worry and scare-tactics in an attempt to keep the public "in-line" and themselves in the headlines (and well compensated for the interviews and clicks).

suicide_circus

Penfailed wrote: »

Really? Who's designing what?

If people are leaning towards conspiracy theories when new stumbling blocks appear, technocrats only have themselves to blame what with the likes of ISAG or SAGE having the express desire to make people more afraid.

OwenM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It is after 13 months of constant coverage and fear-mongering (don't forget the NPHET worry-o-meter after all) over this virus, despite the actual evidence that shows over 99% of people in this country are at little to no risk from it.

It's variant.. so what? That was inevitable. No need for the media/"experts" to start off yet another round of concern, worry and scare-tactics in an attempt to keep the public "in-line" and themselves in the headlines (and well compensated for the interviews and clicks).

As much as I don't like they way they have presented data and outright hidden some of it, in today's indo Glynn is quoted saying

Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn said the way the Indian variant has been described in various online reports would lead you to think the “world was coming to an end”, but the speculation was inflated and not related to the real-world experience so far.

OwenM

Deleted User wrote: »

Some real statisticians have look at the data and found massive excess mortality. This data does not include Ireland as our data is not finalised. No doubt we will be told the data is not relevant because <insert bs here>




Included in the graph is a line for Norway, which shows a country that had lockdowns but had no excess deaths. Does they mean they didn't need a lockdown or that the lockdown worked? Where were all their excess deaths caused by lockdown?

Irish data is available on euromomo, the peaks look to be about twice that of a moderate flu season, but the actual numbers annualised, well that's for the actuaries and statisticians to argue over, but the numbers look fairly flat, as in there were very little. (Arrows and labels are mine.)

Stormyteacup

OwenM wrote: »

As much as I don't like they way they have presented data and outright hidden some of it, in today's indo Glynn is quoted saying

It’s about time they started calling out the nonsense in the media. It’s been that easy all along to reign in panic - but it allowed to perpetuate for twelve months without correction.

_Kaiser_

Stormyteacup wrote: »

It’s about time they started calling out the nonsense in the media. It’s been that easy all along to reign in panic - but it allowed to perpetuate for twelve months without correction.

Glynn in fairness seems more reasonable - it was the same last year when he was in charge.

When in Tony H due back? You can be sure he will be demanding level 5.x again the instant he's back in charge! :rolleyes:

OwenM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Glynn in fairness seems more reasonable - it was the same last year when he was in charge.

When in Tony H due back? You can be sure he will be demanding level 5.x again the instant he's back in charge! :rolleyes:

That old (by now) joke about Holohan in charge of the Road Safety Authority comes to mind, national speed limit 20km/hr, everyone has to wear helmets, even when parked and remember - "The next bend is crucial"

_Kaiser_

OwenM wrote: »

That old (by now) joke about Holohan in charge of the Road Safety Authority comes to mind, national speed limit 20km/hr, everyone has to wear helmets, even when parked and remember - "The next bend is crucial"

Well if Dublin CC get their way, most of the city will be 30 km/h soon :rolleyes:

PintOfView

TomSweeney wrote: »

Fantasy!? did you see the video of the Canadian politician gaslighting people saying if they have friends over they are "putting lives in danger" - absolute hyperbole drivel.


She wants these people thrown in jail - she is dangerous.


And Fauci basing policy on a "what if" ... not based on evidence or science (whatever that means nowadays, it's just as dogmatic as religion it seems) - dangerous times.

Your first sentence, in your original comment, about Oregon was inaccurate, and downright misleading. You then went on to say Canada was becoming Fascist, and mentioning "Evil evil people", etc.

I don't know whether you were particularly wound up after looking at some youtube video or something, but your comments are exactly how disinformation and wrong thinking are sown.

We have a real situation on our hands. Lots of people (government, nphet, the health service, etc) are doing everything they can to deal with it.
Meanwhile lots of people are stuck at home frustrated, and understandably.

However it doesn't help for people to be making up stuff, or taking things out of context (and you may have been just quoting what you saw).
If we all try to stick to reality it has to be much better and healthier that the alternative!

OwenM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Well if Dublin CC get their way, most of the city will be 30 km/h soon :rolleyes:

Owen Keegan is driving that, he was also promoting the white water rafting lunacy, a true died in the wool Green.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-city-council-chief-executive-apologises-for-secret-meeting-with-eamon-ryan-1015522.html

thebaz

Lots of good news the past week, and the Indo headlines with more fear inducing stuff about 'Double mutant'. - then goes on to say not sure if it is any more dangerous, and experts warn about not over-reacting and 'Not Freaking out' .
What irresposnible journalism, the Indo was a decent paper now like a red top, anything for a headline or a click.
Ther is already far too much anxiety in our society today.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/2021-to-become-year-of-the-variant-as-double-mutantindian-strain-detected-in-ireland-40333050.html

OwenM

thebaz wrote: »

Lots of good news the past week, and the Indo headlines with more fear inducing stuff about 'Double mutant'. - then goes on to say not sure if it is any more dangerous, and experts warn about not over-reacting and 'Not Freaking.
What irresposible jounalism, the Indo was a decent paper now like a red top.
Ther is already far too much anxiety in our society today.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/2021-to-become-year-of-the-variant-as-double-mutantindian-strain-detected-in-ireland-40333050.html

I suppose they are glad of a break from 'climate fear'

Silentcorner

thebaz wrote: »

Lots of good news the past week, and the Indo headlines with more fear inducing stuff about 'Double mutant'. - then goes on to say not sure if it is any more dangerous, and experts warn about not over-reacting and 'Not Freaking out' .
What irresposnible journalism, the Indo was a decent paper now like a red top, anything for a headline or a click.
Ther is already far too much anxiety in our society today.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/2021-to-become-year-of-the-variant-as-double-mutantindian-strain-detected-in-ireland-40333050.html

I think people need to understand just how toxic the media industry has become...it's just pumping out hysteria.

Remember the hysteria about Brexit?

Consuming media these days is actually bad for your health.

JDD

Silentcorner wrote: »

I think people need to understand just how toxic the media industry has become...it's just pumping out hysteria.

Remember the hysteria about Brexit?

Consuming media these days is actually bad for your health.

I subscribed to the Indo when covid broke out and ended my subscription after they did an article on covid risks in children the day the primary schools opened. Same as the article you were talking about - the headline was pure clickbait and then the article basically refuted what the headline was insinuating. To add to it, they included a pic of a child in a hospital bed. I actually thought it was bordering on criminally negligent to print stuff like that.

The internet has ruined newspapers. To survive, they must get the clickbait advertising. The only way you are going to get unbiased news now, is to subscribe to a news site that is entirely behind a paid firewall. It's sad but there it is.

Silentcorner

JDD wrote: »

I subscribed to the Indo when covid broke out and ended my subscription after they did an article on covid risks in children the day the primary schools opened. Same as the article you were talking about - the headline was pure clickbait and then the article basically refuted what the headline was insinuating. To add to it, they included a pic of a child in a hospital bed. I actually thought it was bordering on criminally negligent to print stuff like that.

The internet has ruined newspapers. To survive, they must get the clickbait advertising. The only way you are going to get unbiased news now, is to subscribe to a news site that is entirely behind a paid firewall. It's sad but there it is.

I think this is a very important action to take, as soon as you recognise that a media company is behaving in a manner that is clearly unbalanced you must have the discipline to disengage.

RTE's Claire Byrne had Sam "the expert" McConkey, a household name thanks to his exposure on media and a noted fear monger...where both claimed not to know who John Ioannidis was....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

That is a moment where RTE are telling you they are completely unbalanced, it is then up to yourself if you wish to continue consuming their content.

I don't however share your optimism about paid for content....I fell into that trap years ago when I bought the IT most days...

Standards in media have always been low, now they are dangerously low.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

Irish data is available on euromomo, the peaks look to be about twice that of a moderate flu season, but the actual numbers annualised, well that's for the actuaries and statisticians to argue over, but the numbers look fairly flat, as in there were very little. (Arrows and labels are mine.)

When averaged over a larger sample, such as a full continent, the picture is clear. Euromomo participant countries have an excess death rate (550k)that closely aligns with covid deaths in the area covered (646k).

The fact that excess death rate in Ireland might be below average is irrelevant. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of stats knows that the larger the sample (440m in Euromomo vs 5 million in Ireland), the more accurately you can estimate the true proportion. Local variations average out over a broad area.

Expected cardiovascular deaths within the same countries is 550k per year. Covid, so far, has been a years worth of cardiovascular related deaths. With lockdowns.



Datasources:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://ourworldindata.org/

DellyBelly

DellyBelly wrote: »

They are talking about this so called Indian variant on rte news. Sounds serious. Everytime I feel I see the light at the end of the tunnel a bit of bad news comes out to dampen my optimism..

More chance getting a variant from a dodgy vindaloo from your local Indian takeaway

Graces7

Penfailed wrote: »

They were talking about it on LBC yesterday evening. This isn't RTE scaremongering and it isn't only Ireland talking about it.

Thank you and I echo this. We have extended family out there and they are in strictest lockdown now. This as you rightly say is very serious for India and for the wider world.