Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

Probes

Hooked wrote: »

No... but having had Covid (very mild illness thankfully), being of above average intelligence, and also falling into the 1% (under 45's) chance of actually dying from it... (this weeks data) I'll assess the RISK, and take my chances.

You realise that 1% of 4,500 deaths is 45 people. In a year.
And 45 as a % of the population is a 0.0009% death rate

I suppose I should hide under my bed and wait for
"the man on the telly" to tell me it's ok to go outside...


Bored of lockdown?

How bout bored of hiding from something that has an almost zero % chance of actually killing you!!!

Jesus Wept!

Obviously if everyone acts as you suggest then the risk would increase hugely. I haven't checked your sums but the point is, even with the Christmas mess, Ireland have dealt with this extremely well. Those numbers you are using are not reflective of what the risk would be if we all did what we wanted.

muddypuppy

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Anyone know of an automated twitter account for case numbers ?

I know Department of health tweets them but I'm just looking for numbers.

@COVID19DataIE

jammiedodgers

The optics of still not having approved AstraZeneca to recommence looks terrible imo. Fairly sure the dogs on the street knew it was going to be approved by the EMA, wouldn't you think they could have held a meeting last night?

I know in the grand scheme of things it won't make much difference but why is everything we do so fucking slow all the time.

is_that_so

jammiedodgers wrote: »

The optics of still not having approved AstraZeneca to recommence looks terrible imo. Fairly sure the dogs on the street knew it was going to be approved by the EMA, wouldn't you think they could have held a meeting last night?

I know in the grand scheme of things it won't make much difference but why is everything we do so fucking slow all the time.

We need to get vaccines out and rebook people for tests - not something you can do over lunchtime.

Lucas Hood

muddypuppy wrote: »

@COVID19DataIE

That's just swabs and vaccines thanks though.

JRant

Ger Roe wrote: »

Unless people get tested, we won't know where the virus is within the community. If everyone just decided to seek medical advice when they absolutely had to .. the virus would be rampant. unmapped and uncontrolled.

The advice, after a year of all this, is still to get call your doc when you have symptoms and they will decide if you should get tested. Self diagnosing and staying at home on you own initiative deprives wider society of the data that is needed to deal with the still ongoing pandemic.

You're assuming an appropriate test and trace system is in place when it's clearly not. What difference does it make where someone think they caught it if there are no measures in place to accurately track it back to source. I mean, it looks great on paper but unless it's implemented properly and has a real benefit then what is the point. If we are to believe NPHET it's mostly household transmission anyway.

Ringing a doctor with a mild temp or cough seems to me a complete waste of resources as well.

Why does wider society need my medical information anyway, particularly if it's extremely mild? The only trend is severe restrictions followed by lockdowns anyway. I'll go back to an earlier question, what difference does it make?

is_that_so

Lucas Hood wrote: »

That's just swabs and vaccines thanks though.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/

muddypuppy

Lucas Hood wrote: »

That's just swabs and vaccines thanks though.

Ah right sorry, misread your question. For cases I just follow Richard Chambers, Zara King, Gavan Reilly and the likes, but they don't post only cases.

Wolf359f

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Its total new confirmed cases. It was admissions on 21 February. Not really comparableeven though its on the same graph.

I wish they had left it as is. You have to download the data to see it's only 25 admissions, which is actually still a reduction based on 7 day average admission.

Russman

Monster249 wrote: »

I should have clarified my initial question. I'm not against lockdowns and actually believe they work when used appropriately. The problem that we have now is that we've used them to death and now face the risk of using them long-passed their useful lifespan.

More and more people are not adhering and this will only get worse as the weather improves, cases won't get any lower than they are now. The answer to this isn't longer restrictions yet that's exactly what I feel is going to happen.

My question was more-so aimed at individuals who are supporting a continuous lockdown passed Easter & beyond based on current case numbers. I believe we're at a balance point now where any prolonging of the current restrictions passed Easter are doing more harm than good in the context of the bigger picture. It literally scares me that people don't realize that and are quite happy to go with further lockdowns at this point. It would make you truly fear the zombified attitude towards figures of authority.

I don't disagree, and I'm genuinely wondering rather than having a go, what do we do if we open too early and cases and subsequent hospitalisations, do indeed surge before we have enough vaccinated ?
Honestly I don't know what good options any government have. Its all very well to give out (not you specifically) about authoritarian rules, NPHET this, NPHET that, economy etc., but if it got to the point of overwhelming the hospitals, where do we go with it ?

Monster249

Russman wrote: »

I don't disagree, and I'm genuinely wondering rather than having a go, what do we do if we open too early and cases and subsequent hospitalisations, do indeed surge before we have enough vaccinated ?
Honestly I don't know what good options any government have. Its all very well to give out (not you specifically) about authoritarian rules, NPHET this, NPHET that, economy etc., but if it got to the point of overwhelming the hospitals, where do we go with it ?

What we do is accept that a level of death will occur but proceed on the basis that the cost-benefit is still in favour of opening up.

It's not reasonable to expect the country to be locked down for 7 months while they trod along with their poor vaccine roll-out (irrespective of the cause of the delay). We have to 'live with Covid' and that means accepting that a level of death will occur and we cannot sacrifice everything (from an economic & social perspective) in some heroic attempt to reduce that level.

ek motor

iamwhoiam wrote: »

It bothers me because the 4 parks within 5kms are jam packed .I could walk on a near empty beach in peace if they lift it .

Just go if you want to go. The 5km limit is a joke.

Rebelbrowser

JRant wrote: »

You're assuming an appropriate test and trace system is in place when it's clearly not. What difference does it make where someone think they caught it if there are no measures in place to accurately track it back to source. I mean, it looks great on paper but unless it's implemented properly and has a real benefit then what is the point. If we are to believe NPHET it's mostly household transmission anyway.

Ringing a doctor with a mild temp or cough seems to me a complete waste of resources as well.

Why does wider society need my medical information anyway, particularly if it's extremely mild? The only trend is severe restrictions followed by lockdowns anyway. I'll go back to an earlier question, what difference does it make?

Do you live with people? If so, absent a negative test, they also need to quarantine. Thus, if you had kids, if you get covid symptoms and don't get tested, those kids have to stay out of school for the bones of two weeks. If not, you risk them getting it and spreading to many. So no, getting a test is pretty important. If you live on your own and lockdown fully for two weeks or whatever upon getting symptoms (including not even going to the shop) then I suppose that's fine. But why not get a test to see if there is any need to do that?

Rebelbrowser

Monster249 wrote: »

What we do is accept that a level of death will occur but proceed on the basis that the cost-benefit is still in favour of opening up.

It's not reasonable to expect the country to be locked down for 7 months while they trod along with their poor vaccine roll-out (irrespective of the cause of the delay). We have to 'live with Covid' and that means accepting that a level of death will occur and we cannot sacrifice everything (from an economic & social perspective) in some heroic attempt to reduce that level.

Correct. But at what level? All for opening up a bit but if we get exponential rises again (like Jan) we will need to close again. Unchecked, such exponential growth could lead to many thousands of deaths. That's not an acceptable level for anyone I'd have thought. Hopefully won't arise though if we largely pivot to outdoor living for the next 6 months or so.

Monster249

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Correct. But at what level? All for opening up a bit but if we get exponential rises again (like Jan) we will need to close again. Unchecked, such exponential growth could lead to many thousands of deaths. That's not an acceptable level for anyone I'd have thought. Hopefully won't arise though if we largely pivot to outdoor living for the next 6 months or so.

Yeah and I'd agree with that outlook if we didn't have vaccines. They already have many vulnerable vaccinated and will have most if not all the vulnerable done within the next month or two so what happened at Christmas won't happen again.

Chris_5339762

The 5km is the one killing me too... Cobh island sucks for lockdown... there is no difference really between 2km for me and 5km because most of it is in Cork Harbour, and although land at the other side of the harbour is within my 5km, the bridge off the island and the route to there is > 5km.

Increase it to 7km and I can go to about 3 times as many places.

Rebelbrowser

Interesting article in the Guardian...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/mar/19/revealed-the-data-that-shows-how-covid-bounced-back-after-the-uks-lockdowns

Russman

Monster249 wrote: »

What we do is accept that a level of death will occur but proceed on the basis that the cost-benefit is still in favour of opening up.

It's not reasonable to expect the country to be locked down for 7 months while they trod along with their poor vaccine roll-out (irrespective of the cause of the delay). We have to 'live with Covid' and that means accepting that a level of death will occur and we cannot sacrifice everything (from an economic & social perspective) in some heroic attempt to reduce that level.

Of course there are going to be deaths nobody denies that.
So do we limit the number of COVID patients we admit to hospital or ICU and keep a percentage free for non COVID issues ? or do we potentially tell Joe who's had a heart attack that he's too late the beds are all full of COVID patients ?
Just like we can't stay locked down forever, the system can't operate at surge capacity forever.

Who gets to decide what the cost/benefit analysis is ?

Arghus

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm on phone. Let me see can I attach a screenshot.

Thank you.

I disagree with your interpretation of what is meant by what's in that report.

They are outlining a scenario where potentially Covid AND other respiratory illnesses - common cold etc - could be circulation simultaneously next Winter - that's why they refer to a double pressure on the health service. They aren't talking about a regular cold and flu season.

It's a possibility it could happen - they're just stating that. They aren't claiming that it absolutely will and they certainly aren't saying that restrictions etc will be in place if it were a normal cold and flu season.

OwenM

Arghus wrote: »

Thank you.

I disagree with your interpretation of what is meant by what's in that report.

They are outlining a scenario where potentially Covid AND other respiratory illnesses - common cold etc - could be circulation simultaneously next Winter - that's why they refer to a double pressure on the health service. They aren't talking about a regular cold and flu season.

It's a possibility it could happen - they're just stating that. They aren't claiming that it absolutely will and they certainly aren't saying that restrictions etc will be in place if it were a normal cold and flu season.

Yeah but we don't have mutually exclusive cohorts of the population that can catch either flu or covid. Ok some people might have been vaccinated for one and not the other but if you are vulnerable to one then you are vulnerable to the other, why would you not get both?

questionmark?

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The 5km is the one killing me too... Cobh island sucks for lockdown... there is no difference really between 2km for me and 5km because most of it is in Cork Harbour, and although land at the other side of the harbour is within my 5km, the bridge off the island and the route to there is > 5km.

Increase it to 7km and I can go to about 3 times as many places.

If there was ever a time to consider buying a boat it's now. Just saying

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The 5km is the one killing me too... Cobh island sucks for lockdown... there is no difference really between 2km for me and 5km because most of it is in Cork Harbour, and although land at the other side of the harbour is within my 5km, the bridge off the island and the route to there is > 5km.

Increase it to 7km and I can go to about 3 times as many places.

Jaysus 5km/7km who cares.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure why someone at a BLM protest would stand up and claim that masks reduce oxygen uptake and cause low IQ in children, but if they were part of any medical group, I would equally expect them to be ejected. It's not about where she said it, it's about what she said.

look I've no skin in the game either way Seamus but look at her CV ok, just on the face of it. I would have to ask why people like this, along with the DR Martin Feelys in Ireland and indeed many the world over, are suddenly abandoning the science that has served them for decades and joining splinter groups of anti lizard people? or is that really the case? Half of NPHET are young and have much less experience of evidence based medicine and though I accept all the accolades that came after, Ronan started life as a physio. Some have a very commercial interest in either PCR or indeed Vaccines. Luke O Neil had a grant from MTV given to him for over 10K, so the epidemic has been good to some. Much as I don't believe stains and O'Neil are zero covid and vaccine pushers, I don't believe these people are NUTS. I think there's more going with respect to balance in the media and certain Celeb doctors getting all the air time. Somewhere there has to be a middle ground, at the moment the only person I can see occupying that ground would be maybe Kingston mills.
I'm not vouching for the idiots and disillusioned in the crowd but even as far as that Oxford professor sunetra gupta goes, they're not all mad. Scientists are very arrogant and it's their job to get grants, acclaim and honour however just remember scientists have claimed Nobel prizes in the past, that they knew did not belong to them.

https://www.biotechpharmasummit.com/index.php/companion-diagnostics-biomarkers-2019-speakers/dolores-cahill/

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/other/questions-over-25m-cost-for-leasing-a-mostly-empty-citywest/ar-BB1eKExT?ocid=entnewsntp

alexonhisown

Monster249 wrote: »

Serious question, why are you still adhering to the arbitrary 5k travel radius?

I’m not strictly adhering to it, but certain members of my family won’t go beyond the 5km to meet up for a walk. I have plenty of reasons to move around, visit graveyard, shopping, dropping shopping to non existent people but some of my family won’t break the restrictions at all.

PmMeUrDogs

607 positive swabs, 4.7% positivity on 12,924 tests.
7 day test positivity is 3.9%

MerlinSouthDub

607 swabs
4.7% + rate

Swabs slightly lower than the same day last week but the + rate is not good at all.

stephenjmcd

Just to flag up a bit of caution when looking at swabs over the next few days. Would suspect with paddy's day they're going to be noisy for want of a better word until after the weekend.

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1372934391480061960?s=19

ek motor

alexonhisown wrote: »

I’m not strictly adhering to it, but certain members of my family won’t go beyond the 5km to meet up for a walk. I have plenty of reasons to move around, visit graveyard, shopping, dropping shopping to non existent people but some of my family won’t break the restrictions at all.

I think the 5km limit is the daftest of all restrictions. I think they will definitely get rid of it April 5th, not that most are already disregarding it.

h2005

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html?__twitter_impression=true

Are we finally going to admit that schools lead to a significant hike in numbers? Once we do that at least we can begin the conversation on how we approach it (mitigate or choose to live with it). The nonsense of denying this is getting us nowhere and is only causing division.

jhegarty

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just to flag up a bit of caution when looking at swabs over the next few days. Would suspect with paddy's day they're going to be noisy for want of a better word until after the weekend.

I am going assume there was less routing testing which would push up the positivity rate.