Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

AdamD

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I feel like we could have gotten away with 3 + enforcement if enforcement came in around the same time level 3 came in in Dublin.

Im personally expecting an r number of around 3 in early January (from Christmas and New Year) whatever rules are in force as families getting together over Christmas and Christmas shopping won't be stopped).

The need to have cases under control before that is probably as big a factor in bringing in level 5 than anything else.

How anyone can make a remotely confident prediction of something like that? :pac:

is_that_so

Some thoughts on possible winter COVID outbreaks.

Winter is fast approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, and researchers warn that COVID-19 outbreaks are likely to get worse, especially in regions that don’t have the virus’s spread under control.

“This virus is going to have a heyday,” says David Relman, a microbiologist at Stanford University in California. “We are looking at some pretty sobering and difficult months ahead.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02972-4

political analyst

DubInMeath wrote: »

You have asked this multiple times and been given answers multiple times.

An example would be my wife's mother. She died unexpectedly of a stroke in the hospital that she worked during her shift.

We knew she died of a stroke as we were told by her colleagues who tried to save her.
But is was over eight weeks before her doctor got the official cause of death and passed this onto us.

I have not asked it "multiple times".

Why couldn't the doctor have certified the cause of death immediately?

Rob A. Bank

speckle wrote: »

guys and gals did anyone make the same mistake as me and put their clocks back an hour last night. Covid fog or what!

Spring... forward

Fall... back

(if you can forgive the Americanism)

440Hertz

Not sure if this has already been posted further back up the thread, but from the Irish Examiner. Seems to underline the urgent need for airport screening.

"A report into the outbreak states the laboratory-confirmed cases were linked to an international flight into Ireland in summer 2020.

That 7.5 hour-long flight, in which 49 of its 283 seats were filled, is believed to have landed at Dublin Airport in June.

The HSE was unable to contact 11 of the 49 passengers on board, and one of the passengers refused to be tested for Covid-19."


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40070591.html

Antares35

mloc123 wrote: »

Hey, it is my idea of hell... But people do it. Walk around, look in the shops.. food court for lunch and home.

Like those people who go to IKEA at the weekend. Drop the kids into the kid minding area, go and have a look at the pots and candles and kitchen drawer organisers,then have their meatballs and head home. A dead man wouldn't want that life

CIARAN_BOYLE

AdamD wrote: »

How anyone can make a remotely confident prediction of something like that? :pac:

Well it's not a confident prediction. My confident prediction is a massive spike in the R number as families gather over the Christmas season.

2.5-3.5 was mentioned by Holohan and Nolan in one of the press conferences a few weeks ago so I'm taking the mid point in their number.

cnocbui

AdamD wrote: »

How anyone can make a remotely confident prediction of something like that? :pac:

Many people, probably. It's convincing other people you are not talking out the wrong end of your aiimentary canal that's the hard part.

is_that_so

440Hertz wrote: »

Not sure if this has already been posted further back up the thread, but from the Irish Examiner "Flight into Dublin Airport linked to 59 Covid-19 cases

"Passengers on a flight to Dublin led to the spread of 59 Covid-19 cases around the country.

A report into the outbreak states the laboratory-confirmed cases were linked to an international flight into Ireland in summer 2020.

That 7.5 hour-long flight, in which 49 of its 283 seats were filled, is believed to have landed at Dublin Airport in June.

The HSE was unable to contact 11 of the 49 passengers on board, and one of the passengers refused to be tested for Covid-19."


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40070591.html

This outbreak demonstrates the potential for spread of SARS-CoV-2 linked to air travel.

It really shows how people not following public health guidance can spread it. It's like the case in the NW, sure it probably came in on a flight but subsequent behaviours spread it to nearly 60 people.

OscarMIlde

owlbethere wrote: »

That is good news. I suspect a lot of people in healthcare especially the front line staff might have been exposed and infected already with the virus. I know someone on the fontline over there and she was a positive. Her symptoms were nil. They are testing frontline staff every week there. I suspect a lot of people already were infected with the virus and I don't know how beneficial a vaccine would be.


Would anything happen if someone contracted the virus but was asymptomatic and didn't display any symptoms and they didn't know they had the virus and received a vaccine on top of it?

There's an antibody study currently underway to test antibody levels in healthcare workers in Ireland, it's called the Precise study. I imagine uptake has been very high, everyone in my lab went to get tested.

circadian

mloc123 wrote: »

Not running them, just using them...

https://streamable.com/syj4zh

I don't have any issues with the GAA and any time I've brought these incidents up I get accused of having an axe to grind or similar. I really am getting pissed off with the clubs doing whatever they want.

The GAA has done absolutely nothing as a body to try and reign in this sort of carry on. This morning I saw several local kids teams out training. I understand that no contact training with 15 maximum is what's stated for level 5.

This was more than 15 having practice matches. Parents on top of each other shouting from the sidelines. Not one **** given. The local soccer team had a full crew too but less parents hanging around.

Non solum non ambulabit

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Indeed... the measures taken worldwide so far have suppressed the flu viruses to a great extent. (note the figures on the y axis in the graphs below)



Too bad that Covid-19 has been able to sidestep all these measures... Its a very sneaky elusive virus... presymptomatic and asymptomatic spread, superspreaders and airbourne transmission etc. etc.

Flu will have a tiny influence on Hospital capacity this year based on that. I expect empty Hospitals will continue throughout level 5

Goldrickssan

circadian wrote: »

I don't have any issues with the GAA and any time I've brought these incidents up I get accused of having an axe to grind or similar. I really am getting pissed off with the clubs doing whatever they want.

The GAA has done absolutely nothing as a body to try and reign in this sort of carry on. This morning I saw several local kids teams out training. I understand that no contact training with 15 maximum is what's stated for level 5.

This was more than 15 having practice matches. Parents on top of each other shouting from the sidelines. Not one **** given. The local soccer team had a full crew too but less parents hanging around.

So call the guards

Sweet.Science

circadian wrote: »

I don't have any issues with the GAA and any time I've brought these incidents up I get accused of having an axe to grind or similar. I really am getting pissed off with the clubs doing whatever they want.

The GAA has done absolutely nothing as a body to try and reign in this sort of carry on. This morning I saw several local kids teams out training. I understand that no contact training with 15 maximum is what's stated for level 5.

This was more than 15 having practice matches. Parents on top of each other shouting from the sidelines. Not one **** given. The local soccer team had a full crew too but less parents hanging around.

Why blame an organization and not the players parents mentors etc . Makes no sense

If a rugby team weren't behaving within the guidelines would you blame the IRFU

OscarMIlde

circadian wrote: »

I don't have any issues with the GAA and any time I've brought these incidents up I get accused of having an axe to grind or similar. I really am getting pissed off with the clubs doing whatever they want.

The GAA has done absolutely nothing as a body to try and reign in this sort of carry on. This morning I saw several local kids teams out training. I understand that no contact training with 15 maximum is what's stated for level 5.

This was more than 15 having practice matches. Parents on top of each other shouting from the sidelines. Not one **** given. The local soccer team had a full crew too but less parents hanging around.

For me one of the biggest bugbears is that matches were allowed go ahead on the condition that players were being regularly tested, yet it appears now that only occurred if clubs/counties opted into this. Surely every club/team that played without submitting to prior testing should be fined for not abiding by the restrictions. After all, it is actions like these that have contributed towards superspreader events and our level 5 lockdown.

speckle

mr zulu wrote: »

What are u on about, the clocks did go back last night

Oh great. I am not bonkers. Just saw a tweet from 4 hours ago from Simon Harris when scrolling down from a previous posters tweet link re Leo.. even Kermit de frog made an appearance.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

Maybe it takes time to update a tweet time if not on original tweetors page? Just went to the original tweet.. You learn something new everyday.

circadian

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Why blame an organization and not the players parents mentors etc . Makes no sense

If a rugby team weren't behaving within the guidelines would you blame the IRFU

Yes. They are the top level of the organisation and anything that happens in their pyramid is ultimately their responsibility. The GAA have paid lip service in saying that games are cancelled but there is absolutely no attempt at enforcing the regulations and that is obvious given the behaviour I've seen this last week in local pitches.

Sweet.Science

circadian wrote: »

Yes. They are the top level of the organisation and anything that happens in their pyramid is ultimately their responsibility. The GAA have paid lip service in saying that games are cancelled but there is absolutely no attempt at enforcing the regulations and that is obvious given the behaviour I've seen this last week in local pitches.

Haha but what do you want them to do . Be in this local park and stop the training ?

If adults aren't acting within guidelines it's on them .

Report it to the gardai it's annoying you . Contact the club chairman

Jim_Hodge

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Why blame an organization and not the players parents mentors etc . Makes no sense

If a rugby team weren't behaving within the guidelines would you blame the IRFU

It's not that easy to separate the GAA from the clubs which link to the players to the parents. It's a badge of honour for then in Good Times and can't be easily discarded when things turn sour.

Sweet.Science

OscarMIlde wrote: »

For me one of the biggest bugbears is that matches were allowed go ahead on the condition that players were being regularly tested, yet it appears now that only occurred if clubs/counties opted into this. Surely every club/team that played without submitting to prior testing should be fined for not abiding by the restrictions. After all, it is actions like these that have contributed towards superspreader events and our level 5 lockdown.

Did you just make this up ? NPHET said nothing about testing . According to them it was safe to play . So your issue should be with them

cbreeze

is_that_so wrote: »

Some thoughts on possible winter COVID outbreaks.



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02972-4

Yep, its definitely the 'cronyvirus'

gipi

political analyst wrote: »

But the managers of nursing homes and of hospitals place deaths of residents and of patients on record immediately, don't they? It can't just be left to relatives to register deaths - and what if a deceased person has no surviving relatives?

No, hospitals don't register deaths. My father died in hospital a couple of years ago, I registered his death at the HSE office a few weeks later (he died a week before Christmas, so there was a delay on my side in getting to the office)

Sweet.Science

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It's not that easy to separate the GAA from the clubs which link to the players to the parents. It's a badge of honour for then in Good Times and can't be easily discarded when things turn sour.

You still haven't said what they can do ? Shut down all activities for thousands of kids because they were told parents were standing too close together in a park ?

caveat emptor

circadian wrote: »

Yes. They are the top level of the organisation and anything that happens in their pyramid is ultimately their responsibility. The GAA have paid lip service in saying that games are cancelled but there is absolutely no attempt at enforcing the regulations and that is obvious given the behaviour I've seen this last week in local pitches.

I love the gaa and does a lot of good work in the community (apart from the odd sheeben)

I feel a pyramid is a bit unfair. It's more accurately a multi level marketing scheme.
Enrols children and ends up with a sky deal. The highest level you can reach is county and even then you won't recoup costs as you won't get a sponsorship deal in all likelihood. :pac:

:eek:

440Hertz

political analyst wrote: »

But the managers of nursing homes and of hospitals place deaths of residents and of patients on record immediately, don't they? It can't just be left to relatives to register deaths - and what if a deceased person has no surviving relatives?

My mom died a couple of years ago, quite unexpectedly, and what happens is basically a doctor, in this case a registrar, writes a certificate outlining the cause of death and time/date.

You then have to go to the Registrar of Births, Deaths and Marriages to formally notify it and register it. To be quite honest, I thought it was a ludicrous system. The hospital should be able to do all of this without a family member or next of kin having to act as 'the informant.'

All it did for us was cause huge extra stress, trauma and upset after a rather sudden death.

It's fairly obvious that it screws up the statistical analysis for COVID-19 too. It just seems like an archaic process.

The reality is most people who die in Ireland are probably pronounced dead in a healthcare environment be it a hospital or anywhere else. It's not the 19th century anymore and the processes should reflect that.

After that the actual Death Certificate seems to be demanded by a lot of banks, utilities and other bodies to close down accounts and in a lot of cases they won't even accept it unless it's authenticated by a solicitor. So it's endless back an forth to offices for weeks trying to sort things out.

Even at this stage, two years later, there are still issues cropping up with accounts and various other things that we were unaware of.

Then you've got these unfathomable processes like obtaining a deed of probate. I have yet to comprehend what the hell that's all about other than paying a lot of money to a lot of solicitors for effectively stamping things.

frank8211

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You still haven't said what they can do ? Shut down all activities for thousands of kids because they were told parents were standing too close together in a park ?

Yes, Immediately. how leadership

Polar101

440Hertz wrote: »

Not sure if this has already been posted further back up the thread, but from the Irish Examiner. Seems to underline the urgent need for airport screening.

Yeah, at the moment it seems to be almost impossible to catch these travel cases. And it makes me think the earlier talk of state of the art HEPA filters onboard planes was just PR talk (or was it?).

I know they tried airport testing in Finland, but while they initially detected several cases from some North Macedonian and Romanian flights, now they are detecting very few cases. So the only way to prevent travel cases might be a combination of "proof of negative test"/rapid testing/quarantines for incoming passengers.

Sweet.Science

frank8211 wrote: »

Yes, Immediately. how leadership

Ha

Jim_Hodge

political analyst wrote: »

But the managers of nursing homes and of hospitals place deaths of residents and of patients on record immediately, don't they? It can't just be left to relatives to register deaths - and what if a deceased person has no surviving relatives?

Nursing homes don't generally register deaths. We, the family, had to do it some time back.

440Hertz

Polar101 wrote: »

Yeah, at the moment it seems to be almost impossible to catch these travel cases. And it makes me think the earlier talk of state of the art HEPA filters onboard planes was just PR talk (or was it?).

I know they tried airport testing in Finland, but while they initially detected several cases from some North Macedonian and Romanian flights, now they are detecting very few cases. So the only way to prevent travel cases might be a combination of "proof of negative test"/rapid testing/quarantines for incoming passengers.

HEPA filters on board only would stop some degree of transmission on board. Air still mixes and unless you'd air curtains and all of that it's still going to move around the cabin. It's probably better than many other enclosed spaces though as at least it is a known air change system that's got very detailed specifications. If someone coughs or otherwise blows particulates of virus into the air, it's still going to move around the cabin until it's eventually pulled into a ventilation duct and filtered. It's not like each passenger is in their own bubble.

However, the issue is more that someone with COVID-19 gets on a flight somewhere with a high outbreak, like some parts of the USA had at that time when we had it under control.

They board a flight, land in Ireland. Have no or few symptoms and then go on to infect a large number of people.

The HEPA filters on the aircraft aren't going to prevent that in any way. You have to test people before they board or before they can mingle in Ireland. That's exactly what Germany is doing and Iceland and quite a few other places.