Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

No worries with the subbing

That approach is not clear enough for me

If they came out with e.g. r must be 1 and no mire than 200 daily cases to maintain level 3 that would help imo - not suggesting these exact numbers mind

I suspect that nphet and elements of the government would take that straight away.

Others would push to move to level 2.

My own estimate is that we can live with upto 500 cases a day if we know the R number will stay at 1 but we would need to be ready to jump on a rise in the R number immediately.

We also need to realise that for the moment nphet and the government should be extra cautious. Can you imagine coming out of level 5 a few weeks early and for the R number to climb to 1.5+ giving the virus 6 weeks to grow before Christmas leaving the government little choice to enact level 5 at Christmas time.

Russman

is_that_so wrote: »

They don't like setting targets at all and prefer "as low as possible". That's really not acceptable now and will be even less so if/when we get another one of these in the New Year.

It’s such a grey and fast moving (at times) situation though and so many variables, there’s simply no way they can set a definite “target”.

I dunno what the right answer is tbh, but I do think joe public deciding he knows better than the professionals/experts simply because he’s inconvenienced might not be the best way forward.

Stheno

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I suspect that nphet and elements of the government would take that straight away.

Others would push to move to level 2.

My own estimate is that we can live with upto 500 cases a day if we know the R number will stay at 1 but we would need to be ready to jump on a rise in the R number immediately.

That would make sense to me in that if people know the limits at which we go up a level then they can prepare for it

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/25/coronavirus-live-news-cases-surge-in-europe-restrictions-victoria-uk-italy-greece-austria

Hospitals in Geneva appealing for retired medical professionals to help them, they are at over 1000 cases per 100k

It may be that our early restrictions of level three in Dublin and then nationally may turn out to cause us to avoid whats happening around Europe at the moment

I'm still not convinced 5 was necessary

Risteard81

odyssey06 wrote: »

I thought they were Satanic?
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115034595&postcount=42

So maybe you can clarify if our government should be prosecuted for blasphemy, or treason or is it crimes against science?

I fervently believe that they must be executed for Treason.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

I'm still not convinced 5 was necessary

I feel like we could have gotten away with 3 + enforcement if enforcement came in around the same time level 3 came in in Dublin.

Im personally expecting an r number of around 3 in early January (from Christmas and New Year) whatever rules are in force as families getting together over Christmas and Christmas shopping won't be stopped).

The need to have cases under control before that is probably as big a factor in bringing in level 5 than anything else.

is_that_so

Russman wrote: »

It’s such a grey and fast moving (at times) situation though and so many variables, there’s simply no way they can set a definite “target”.

I dunno what the right answer is tbh, but I do think joe public deciding he knows better than the professionals/experts simply because he’s inconvenienced might not be the best way forward.

Not that fast moving for them to be predicting data for 6 weeks hence. Joe Public comes into it because s/he does need to know is this six weeks or a whole lot longer? The CMO has mentioned 100 cases a day by then. If they view that as acceptable or R0 of 0.5/0.6 they need to state it. We need to know where "there" is if we are not there yet.

Sweet.Science

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

What the hell is going on

xhomelezz

Risteard81 wrote: »

I fervently believe that they must be executed for Treason.

Medical advice urgently needed.

Russman

Just with regard to timelines, let’s say, in a best case scenario, we come out of level 5 as expected on 1st Dec. Based on the springtime, when we probably got June, JulY & August out of it before it went pear shaped again. That would maybe give us December, January & February, leaving aside a Christmas spike. Now, if vaccines for healthcare workers start to roll out in the new year, is there a chance that enough of them and other vulnerables would be vaccinated by March to have an impact on whether we need to go back up the levels ? Like if the EU get 20 million of Pfizer’s 100 million stockpile they claim they’ll have by end 2020, and we’re about 1% of the EU population, that’d give us 200,000 shots, so 100,000 people vaccinated - would that be enough to slow a spike in numbers ?

I’d gladly take that scenario if it meant avoiding a 3rd lockdown tbh.

Stheno

Sweet.Science wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

What the hell is going on

Would you go to hospital if you absolutely didn't have to?

Theres also the possibility flu has not hit yet and not all elective procedures are being done

Boggles

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I feel like we could have gotten away with 3 + enforcement if enforcement came in around the same time level 3 came in in Dublin.

Ah, that is extreme after timing.

There was absolutely no justification for level 3+ for the country back then and NPHET if they recommended it would have told STFU.

Loafing Oaf

Sweet.Science wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320379523637104641?s=19

What the hell is going on

Yeah that's a shocking typo from the tanaiste:P

JimToken

Russman wrote: »

Just with regard to timelines, let’s say, in a best case scenario, we come out of level 5 as expected on 1st Dec. Based on the springtime, when we probably got June, JulY & August out of it before it went pear shaped again. That would maybe give us December, January & February, leaving aside a Christmas spike. Now, if vaccines for healthcare workers start to roll out in the new year, is there a chance that enough of them and other vulnerables would be vaccinated by March to have an impact on whether we need to go back up the levels ? Like if the EU get 20 million of Pfizer’s 100 million stockpile they claim they’ll have by end 2020, and we’re about 1% of the EU population, that’d give us 200,000 shots, so 100,000 people vaccinated - would that be enough to slow a spike in numbers ?

I’d gladly take that scenario if it meant avoiding a 3rd lockdown tbh.

Not just vaccines

Rapid testing and smartphones equally important next year

Goldrickssan

I love the GAA lads. Sunday Game giving me chills with their intro.

Pure Irish culture. Feck the haters.

Russman

is_that_so wrote: »

Not that fast moving for them to be predicting data for 6 weeks hence. Joe Public comes into it because s/he does need to know is this six weeks or a whole lot longer? The CMO has mentioned 100 cases a day by then. If they view that as acceptable or R0 of 0.5/0.6 they need to state it. We need to know where "there" is if we are not there yet.

Oh I totally agree they can’t just leave the population hanging there. I just think it’s not necessarily as black and white as X number of cases, the trends will have to come into it, as will hospital capacity etc.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Stheno wrote: »

Would you go to hospital if you absolutely didn't have to?

Theres also the possibility flu has not hit yet and not all elective procedures are being done

Certain hospitals have closed elective procedures already (Cavan, Cork and Limerick at times in recent weeks).

Flu probably won't hit that badly (please please god) as level 5 restrictions will hit the flu on the head.

The closure of pubs and nightclubs have had an effect on the people using A&E as a drunk tank. My father had too bad hospital stays last year that had multiday trolley waits before being put on a ward. It shocked me (during the night I stayed over night in a chair) to see multiple people on trolleys just too drunk and being medically monitored clogging up A&E.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Russman wrote: »

Just with regard to timelines, let’s say, in a best case scenario, we come out of level 5 as expected on 1st Dec. Based on the springtime, when we probably got June, JulY & August out of it before it went pear shaped again. That would maybe give us December, January & February, leaving aside a Christmas spike. Now, if vaccines for healthcare workers start to roll out in the new year, is there a chance that enough of them and other vulnerables would be vaccinated by March to have an impact on whether we need to go back up the levels ? Like if the EU get 20 million of Pfizer’s 100 million stockpile they claim they’ll have by end 2020, and we’re about 1% of the EU population, that’d give us 200,000 shots, so 100,000 people vaccinated - would that be enough to slow a spike in numbers ?

I’d gladly take that scenario if it meant avoiding a 3rd lockdown tbh.

It depends on what the vaccine does. They only need to show a reduction in the level of mild symptoms to pass trials. That means they don't need to show an effect on transmission or significant symptoms to pass their trials. This means we don't actually know what we will get from a vaccine.

As such we will have to see what happens.

BringBackMick

any swabs today or it 48hr job

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Hospital numbers down to 295 this morning. They usually increase over the weekend, I think

Up to 319 now.

24 in, 20 out.

Numbers are all over the place the past few days.

Kermit.de.frog

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Certain hospitals have closed elective procedures already (Cavan, Cork and Limerick at times in recent weeks).

Flu probably won't hit that badly (please please god) as level 5 restrictions will hit the flu on the head.

The closure of pubs and nightclubs have had an effect on the people using A&E as a drunk tank. My father had too bad hospital stays last year that had multiday trolley waits before being put on a ward. It shocked me (during the night I stayed over night in a chair) to see multiple people on trolleys just too drunk and being medically monitored clogging up A&E.

The pandemic has exposed that a lot of problems with our health service actually come from behaviour of the general public particularly drunks and addicts. This is not ignoring failings in the system btw.

We should take this opportunity to reboot things.

Definitely when it comes to blocking beds while very sick or older people have to sit on chairs (I've experienced it myself, it's disgraceful) drunks should be either turned away or made to pay big fines.

We can't go back to business as usual after this in terms of our hospitals.

We need to re-evaluate things from scratch.

caveat emptor

Very informative video. Based on the states but relevant info. Not a good prognosis for the US. If level 5 doesn't get cases down to a manageable amount will we be asked to stay separate for Christmas? We've seen the impact of communions and GAA events when cases were low/ Christmas is the definition of super spreader event. Vaccine and magic new drugs not here yet. If the health system remains fragile Christmas will remain in jeopardy.

Goldrickssan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The pandemic has exposed that a lot of problems with our health service actually come from behaviour of the general public particularly drunks and addicts. This is not ignoring failings in the system btw.

We should take this opportunity to reboot things.

Definitely when it comes to blocking beds while very sick or older people have to sit on chairs (I've experienced it myself, it's disgraceful) drunks should be either turned away or made to pay big fines.

We can't go back to business as usual after this in terms of our hospitals.

We need to re-evaluate things from scratch.

The HSE won't be fixed by a reboot. There is hardware there since the old health boards hogging resources.

Full hardware refresh is needed.

JimToken

Goldrickssan wrote: »

The HSE won't be fixed by a reboot. There is hardware there since the old health boards hogging resources.

Full hardware refresh is needed.

Gardai would be a good comparison

Change from the top down if it works

speckle

guys and gals did anyone make the same mistake as me and put their clocks back an hour last night. Covid fog or what!

frank8211

Happydays2020 wrote: »

GAA again. The county Champions

https://www.gaa.ie/football/news/kildare-sfc-final-athy-edge-out-moorefield/

so the gaa are behind these sheebeens?

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The pandemic has exposed that a lot of problems with our health service actually come from behaviour of the general public particularly drunks and addicts. This is not ignoring failings in the system btw.

We should take this opportunity to reboot things.

Definitely when it comes to blocking beds while very sick or older people have to sit on chairs (I've experienced it myself, it's disgraceful) drunks should be either turned away or made to pay big fines.

We can't go back to business as usual after this in terms of our hospitals.

We need to re-evaluate things from scratch.

Lol, sure wouldn’t it be great if we just closed pubs, clubs, cancelled gigs, banned sports etc.

Be better for the hospitals. Lockdown forever.

mloc123

frank8211 wrote: »

so the gaa are behind these sheebeens?

Not running them, just using them...

https://streamable.com/syj4zh

mr zulu

speckle wrote: »

guys and gals did anyone make the same mistake as me and put their clocks back an hour last night. Covid fog or what!

What are u on about, the clocks did go back last night

440Hertz

Stheno wrote: »

Would you go to hospital if you absolutely didn't have to?

Theres also the possibility flu has not hit yet and not all elective procedures are being done

There's a fairly strong possibility the social distancing, hand washing/sanitising and masks is having a very dramatic impact on the flu season too. The same measures as we're using for coronavirus are inevitably having a big impact on influenza transmission too.

Rob A. Bank

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Certain hospitals have closed elective procedures already (Cavan, Cork and Limerick at times in recent weeks).

Flu probably won't hit that badly (please please god) as level 5 restrictions will hit the flu on the head.

Indeed... the measures taken worldwide so far have suppressed the flu viruses to a great extent. (note the figures on the y axis in the graphs below)



Too bad that Covid-19 has been able to sidestep all these measures... Its a very sneaky elusive virus... presymptomatic and asymptomatic spread, superspreaders and airbourne transmission etc. etc.