Severe Weather Snow / Ice Weds 28 FEB ( Onwards ) ** READ MOD NOTE POST#1**

sryanbruen

wakka12 wrote: »

Is another cold spell quite likely to just be a slushy mess if it occurred that far into march? Even in the spell just there in my part of Dublin there was a lot of daily thawing and they were exceptionally low temps for late feb/early march

You can get "decent" snow as late as April as has happened previously such as in 1917, 1981, 1998, 1999 and 2008. The snow wouldn't last long at all though due to temperatures being rather high and quick recovery, not to mention even higher solar radiation than March. Would certainly turn into a slush fest fast. Gaoth Laidir pretty much says it bang on here of why it would be so fast in comparison to earlier in the Winter: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106337601&postcount=1586

Northern Ireland had a lot of snow lying for much of the second half of March 2013 after the 21/22 March blizzard as temperatures continuously were well below average with not a lot of sunshine in a northeasterly airstream. There would still be thawing - you just can't rule it out at this time of year regardless of what - going on due to the reasons above.

I do not want anymore snow though 'til next Winter. I want benign Spring weather or mild, sunny weather. This spell has made me sick of it. I want normal life to resume. I want to get off the rollercoaster ride and have a break from it all!

sryanbruen

Nettle Soup wrote: »

So you're saying don't take the Christmas tree and lights down just yet? Sound.

You should have done that over two months ago :P

Loughc

sryanbruen wrote: »

You should have done that over two months ago :P

NEVER! haha

ZX7R

Quite a heavy fog rolling in at the moment, it going to add to the all ready dangerous driving conditions, I would not be surprised to see an orange warning for it later.
Kildare

Gonzo

I really enjoyed the snow over the past few days, but the thaw today was not pretty. Mounds of dark brown snow/slush piles throughout Dunshaughlin main street and ponding everywhere.

I reckon this season I've seen more snowfalls than most other years. There was the midlands snow of December 11th which we drove to. Then there was some very brief snowfall during the Christmas holidays and then several snow falls during January and February from the North-West, one of them dumped around 7cm of snow. Then of course there was the beast itself and then Emma.

It's surprising how much snow and sleet I've seen this season, yet not experienced much frost this season.

I would be happy for winter to finally go away now, some welcome mild weather and my thoughts turn towards a hopefully very warm, often sunny and sometimes thundery summer!

piuswal

cherryghost wrote: »

Sunspot activity. A lack of sunspot activity can be directly corellated to weather outcomes on earth. Less activity=colder weather

where?

piuswal

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Of course the Maunder Minimum of the 17th C was accompanied by unlikely events such as the Thames freezing over, but the physical mechanism that explains how sunspot numbers can affect climate is still unknown it seems.

what is the correlation between sunspot numbers and the sun's energy output?

Nettle Soup

sryanbruen wrote: »

You should have done that over two months ago :P

I put them back up when I heard the Beasterly was coming!

SleetAndSnow

piuswal wrote: »

what is the correlation between sunspot numbers and the sun's energy output?

read the page before this with MT's explanation......

FastFullBack

revelman wrote: »

I wonder is this some sort of lake effect around Cork Harbour? At the other side of the habour, the Roche’s point side, places like Cloyne were hammered too, with a voluntary ME station there recording 40cm of snow. I say lake effect because the snow was heaviest right on the coast itself. The further away from the coast, you got much less snow.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sure, it was those sea effect streamers on Wednesday hugging the coast plus the synoptic scale snowfalls being southern based that caused that regional difference. But with a different angle of attack, Cork city could have had more than you saw in Kinsale, so it was partly the specific wind direction which was almost parallel to the coast on Wednesday.

I think the lake effect snow was from the Irish sea right? But as MT mentions the wind direction at the time meant the streamers skimmed down along the coast from Wexford, Waterford and onto Cork.
I took some screenshots of the radars at the time (hoping they'd hit Cork City more) and consistently they all followed a similar path, missing alot of Waterford ( I remember some posters mentioning West Waterford got little snow at the time), partially hitting Youghal, then hitting the Garryvoe area, onto Roche's Point, Carrigaline, Kinsale, Courtmacsherry, Clonality and on down the coast.

https://flic.kr/p/FevAJ8

My parents in Barryroe near Clonality got absolutely smashed with snow. Like yourself revelman, they finally were able to get out today after seeing huge snow drifts. Picture below is a small Road, you can see the ditches on either side.

https://flic.kr/p/24Tyfon

I was out around Cork today as well, Ballincollig’s snow was pretty much all gone, Matthew Hill on south side of city still had a fair bit and Carrigaline still had loads.

I’ve not been following weather for long but around Cork, the weather always comes from the west. Ballincollig is always one of the first areas around the city to get snow, Carrigaline is always slow to get snow. Just shows how mad the last few days were.

Cork Boy 53

I don't know if it happened in this country but I do know that snow fell in London in June 1975 which, to say the least, was remarkable at that time of year.

Jim Gazebo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Something added a stray http to the https link there.

Here’s a link that works. Worth seeing.

https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816?s=20

Cheers fella, had no idea what happened. Class photo all the same.

Bananaleaf

Gonzo wrote: »

I really enjoyed the snow over the past few days, but the thaw today was not pretty. Mounds of dark brown snow/slush piles throughout Dunshaughlin main street and ponding everywhere.

Yep was bad, but, a slower thaw would have been a nightmare. I've always said that the snow is great but it's when it starts to thaw is the worst. But, this time at least the thaw is happening really quickly

M.T. Cranium

Mean temperatures 1781 to 1840 (Central England Temperature series)

YEAR __JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1781__ 2.1 4.8 6.6 _9.2 12.1 16.2 17.4 17.3 14.2 10.6 6.5 5.4
1782__ 5.2 1.9 4.1 _5.2 _9.0 14.9 15.6 14.2 13.3 _7.6 2.3 2.8
1783__ 3.4 3.3 3.3 10.1 10.4 14.8 18.8 15.8 12.8 _9.8 6.2 2.7
1784_--0.6 1.4 2.7 _5.7 13.5 13.7 15.2 14.0 14.8 _7.8 5.5 0.3
1785__ 3.4 0.4 1.2 _8.4 12.3 16.1 16.1 13.9 13.6 _8.7 5.6 2.8
1786__ 2.7 3.4 2.1 _8.1 11.2 16.1 15.0 15.1 11.7 _7.5 3.3 2.8
1787__ 3.6 5.9 6.8 _7.4 11.5 13.9 15.8 15.6 12.8 _9.8 4.5 3.8
1788__ 3.9 3.8 3.6 _9.4 13.8 15.4 15.8 15.8 13.4 _9.8 6.1 -0.3
1789__ 1.5 5.0 2.1 _7.4 12.5 14.0 15.4 16.6 13.1 _8.6 4.6 6.1
1790__ 4.3 6.6 6.4 _6.1 11.9 14.6 14.9 15.6 12.2 10.3 6.1 4.3
1791__ 4.3 4.7 6.5 _9.6 10.6 14.7 15.3 15.9 13.8 _8.9 5.9 1.1
1792__ 2.3 4.5 5.9 10.0 10.2 13.2 15.3 16.9 11.8 _8.8 7.1 4.3
1793__ 2.8 4.6 4.2 _6.2 10.9 13.5 17.6 15.0 11.7 11.3 6.0 5.3
1794__ 1.8 7.2 7.0 10.2 11.3 15.7 18.1 15.5 12.5 _9.6 6.1 3.7
1795_--3.1 0.8 3.9 _7.7 10.9 13.2 15.2 16.6 16.0 11.7 4.5 6.6
1796__ 7.3 4.7 4.2 10.2 10.3 13.9 14.7 15.9 14.6 _8.1 4.6 -0.3
1797__ 3.5 4.6 4.3 _7.4 11.3 13.6 17.3 15.8 12.5 _8.2 4.7 4.8
1798__ 3.6 4.0 5.1 10.4 12.9 16.9 16.3 16.4 13.6 _9.9 4.7 1.5
1799__ 1.7 2.8 3.4 _5.4 _9.6 14.1 15.2 14.4 12.9 _8.3 5.6 1.3
1800__ 2.8 2.2 4.0 _9.3 12.3 13.9 17.7 16.8 13.9 _9.2 5.4 3.3
1801__ 4.6 4.8 6.7 _8.3 12.1 14.8 16.1 17.1 14.2 10.2 4.8 1.5
1802__ 1.6 3.7 5.6 _8.9 10.6 13.7 13.5 17.2 13.8 10.1 5.1 3.6
1803__ 1.8 3.4 6.3 _9.1 10.5 13.7 17.6 16.1 11.4 _9.3 5.0 4.4
1804__ 5.8 2.9 4.7 _6.9 13.3 16.1 15.9 15.6 14.2 10.7 6.6 2.1
1805__ 2.1 4.1 6.2 _8.3 10.2 13.2 16.0 16.4 14.6 _8.2 4.8 3.6
1806__ 4.2 4.3 5.1 _6.8 12.1 14.9 15.4 16.2 13.4 10.6 7.8 6.8
1807__ 2.8 3.7 2.9 _7.7 11.8 14.2 17.1 16.9 10.5 11.4 2.9 1.9
1808__ 2.6 2.8 3.2 _5.8 13.7 14.8 18.4 16.7 12.7 _7.2 6.0 2.2
1809__ 2.0 5.7 6.0 _5.2 13.1 13.7 15.1 14.8 12.7 10.2 4.6 4.1
1810__ 2.2 3.5 4.9 _8.2 _9.2 14.6 15.2 14.6 13.9 _9.8 5.4 3.6
1811__ 1.2 4.6 7.1 _8.9 12.8 14.1 16.1 14.4 13.7 12.3 7.7 3.1
1812__ 2.6 5.3 3.5 _5.5 10.9 13.0 14.2 14.3 13.2 _9.3 4.9 1.7
1813__ 1.9 5.8 6.8 _7.6 11.6 13.6 15.0 14.5 12.5 _8.1 4.3 2.8
1814_--2.9 1.4 2.9 _9.6 _9.2 12.2 16.0 14.7 12.8 _8.1 4.7 4.3
1815__ 0.3 6.5 7.3 _8.1 12.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 13.4 10.3 3.4 2.3
1816__ 2.7 2.1 3.9 _6.6 _9.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 11.8 10.3 3.9 3.1
1817__ 4.5 6.4 5.5 _7.6 _8.7 15.1 14.1 13.6 13.2 _6.4 9.1 2.5
1818__ 4.4 2.7 4.5 _6.9 11.3 16.4 18.2 15.3 13.3 12.0 9.5 3.6
1819__ 4.4 4.3 6.8 _8.6 11.5 13.4 16.4 17.4 13.4 _9.1 4.1 1.4
1820_--0.3 3.2 4.7 _8.9 11.4 13.6 15.7 14.7 12.3 _8.1 5.6 4.7
1821__ 3.6 2.1 5.7 _9.5 _9.4 12.3 14.8 16.4 14.9 10.4 8.6 6.4
1822__ 4.7 6.3 7.8 _8.3 12.7 17.1 15.6 15.2 12.4 10.7 8.2 1.6
1823__-0.1 3.1 5.0 _6.7 12.2 12.3 14.1 14.4 12.5 _8.4 7.1 4.8
1824__ 4.3 4.7 4.6 _7.4 10.7 13.4 16.0 15.1 13.7 _9.5 7.2 5.1
1825__ 3.8 3.9 5.0 _9.1 11.6 14.1 17.2 16.3 15.1 10.8 5.2 4.6
1826__ 0.4 6.4 6.3 _8.8 11.2 17.3 17.9 17.6 13.6 11.1 4.4 5.8
1827__ 1.7 0.7 5.9 _8.9 11.9 14.2 16.5 14.8 13.7 11.4 6.9 6.9
1828__ 5.1 5.2 6.6 _8.3 12.4 15.4 16.0 15.3 14.3 10.2 7.4 7.4
1829__ 0.3 4.3 4.3 _6.7 12.5 14.9 15.1 14.3 11.3 _8.3 4.5 1.4
1830_--0.2 2.2 7.7 _8.9 12.0 12.7 16.2 13.7 11.9 10.4 6.9 1.8
1831__ 1.6 4.8 7.2 _9.2 11.5 15.4 16.7 16.9 13.7 12.7 5.6 5.8
1832__ 3.1 3.4 5.8 _8.6 10.9 15.2 15.9 15.4 13.6 10.7 5.9 5.2
1833__ 1.2 5.6 3.9 _7.7 15.1 14.6 15.8 14.3 12.1 10.1 6.6 6.9
1834__ 7.1 5.6 7.1 _7.7 13.0 15.4 16.9 16.2 13.8 10.6 6.7 5.6
1835__ 2.9 5.7 5.8 _8.6 11.3 15.0 16.4 16.9 13.4 _8.9 6.6 3.1
1836__ 3.7 3.5 5.8 _7.2 11.1 15.3 15.4 14.6 11.7 _8.6 5.3 4.1
1837__ 2.7 4.7 2.3 _4.7 _9.9 15.5 16.9 15.7 12.5 10.5 5.2 5.3
1838_--1.5 0.4 4.9 _6.1 10.5 14.4 15.6 15.1 12.7 _9.8 4.6 4.0
1839__ 2.8 4.1 4.2 _6.4 10.2 14.3 14.9 14.6 12.4 _9.3 7.3 3.7
1840__ 4.1 3.6 3.8 _9.7 11.4 14.1 13.8 15.9 11.1 _7.5 5.8 1.3
______________________________________________________________________________________

So, a quick analysis of the above ...

Cold winter months (2.0 or lower) are marked in bold. This includes March 1785 (you can find some info on that year in the technical thread as we just locked horns with daily records set in 1785 on 28 Feb and 1 March. The year ended up quite warm and dry for the early summer and cool and wet later. Anyway, with these colder months marked, it's easy to see visually that the Dalton got progressively colder then began to see a return to milder winters on average (although Jan 1838 was markedly cold). I also drew attention to Nov 1782 which was the coldest November in the 360 years of records.

Months marked in red are notably warm months (above 5.5 Jan, 6.0 Feb, 7.5 Mar, 10 Apr, 13 May, 16 Jun, 17.8 Jul, 17.2 Aug, 14.5 Sep, 11.5 Oct, 7.5 Nov or 6.0 Dec). There were a few of these even in the Dalton, perhaps not as many as at random. May 1833 is still the warmest May on record. The summer of 1826 was one of the warmest. The winter of 1833-34 is one of the mildest.

Going to post this now and continue to edit in warm months (red type will appear) and space the columns a bit more evenly, but you can already see the cold nature of the Dalton, in particular 1814 to 1831 stands out. In those 19 winters, 10 had at least one cold month (< 2.0) and two others had three colder than average months.

Note also how cold the summer of 1816 was, and unusual cold weather in May and October of 1817. These were probably the additional effects of the volcanic dust veil from Tamboro.

The general take-away here is that a long downturn in solar activity slowly began to leave an imprint on temperatures (in Britain and presumably also in Ireland) with the coldest winters in particular coming in the period 1814 to 1831 when the majority of winters had at least one cold month (< 2.0).

physioman

Camdyn Thundering Rain wrote: »

Yes. In these conditions that seem like a realistic and honest estimate. Good man.

Like everyone else I have to look after my own estate and neighbours and then get to elderly parents in two separate areas first. When that's done I'll see if I can get to the school.

Just get up that bit earlier and you'll make it to school

jimbis

I had done lots of pre-snow shots with the drone in the hopes of getting lots of comparasment shots but between the weather and life I couldn't get any of the latter bar this one.
Very short clip of March 1st and March 4th at Sandyford/M50

With thanks to all you clever people in this forum that gave me the confidence to prepare and expect this event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GkczD_D2s

SteelyDanJalapeno

Is there strong winds due? Or have they came and gone?

irish_stevo815

Now that it's almost all over I just want to say thank you to everyone here over the past few days.

I didn't contribute much myself but it was great to see people's reactions and live updates from their areas. I was like a child especially Thursday night when it was all about to kick off.

So thanks for the memories.

Loughc

I just want to chime in as well and say thanks to everyone. These threads embody the spirit of boards and shows why Facebook and Snapchat pale in comparison to the community spirit on here.

Fantastic few days since Tuesday evening thanks for making it so much fun and for all the memories.

STB.

Rodin wrote: »

Not a bit of snow where I am.
Have you not been listening?

I heard you loud and clear. You just listen to yourself and dont bother reading the responses though.

You werent affected and think they should have predicted the situation on a more pin point basis for your small town instead of issuing a more widespread warning to preserve life.

You expect teachers (just another worker) to clear the driveways etc of schools presumably when they clear their own driveways.

Yeah neither is an acceptable suggestion other than in your own head.

---

Well done Kermit, MT, Gaoth, et al for the heads up. A lot of people were well prepared. The thread has lots of lovely photos too.

The mods may now retire to a dark room.

Spanish Eyes

I echo all the kudos. Was a great adventure.

Good that we survived and are safe home too.

Mods deserve a lot of credit too. Well done.

Jim Gazebo

Is anybody here near the Galtees? Love a hike up them when it spits snow in Cork, as there's always a lot up there. I can only imagine what it must be like up there! Hopefully get up there today or tomorrow for a look. Will post pics if I do.

nacho libre

I just read that the chief forecaster for the UKMO warned the British government a month ago that the beast from the east was coming.

M.T. Cranium

Well there's been chatter about the impending SW event for about a month, I think it was in the back of long range forecasters' minds since that started up. Don't know if they had any other solid indications.

The first tell-tale synoptics would have been about mid-February when the large high formed north of Alaska and started retrograde motion but you may recall also we were chatting about that 1070 mb high in northern Siberia about early February IIRC and what that might mean. Maybe they had information about its future too, which I think was mostly a split followed by part of it moving northwest and part southeast, there wasn't much left of it by the time that Alaskan high showed up.

ps200306

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Is anybody here near the Galtees? Love a hike up them when it spits snow in Cork, as there's always a lot up there. I can only imagine what it must be like up there! Hopefully get up there today or tomorrow for a look. Will post pics if I do.

The only time I was up Galtymore was in heavy snow sometime during the 90s. One of our party took a turn and we dug him a snow hole to shelter in while we went up top. Can't remember the year but there were three foot snow drifts, as well as some bare patches in places exposed to the howling, freezing wind. Those spots were frozen so hard I couldn't kick stones off the ground to use as weights for a wind shield for the kerosene stove. Please do post your pics if you get up there.

ps200306

Like the snow, the posting rate on the boards snow threads has started to melt away. But between the technical thread and the current and archived discussion threads there are over 23,600 posts. Looks like some posters never got to bed when the snow got going last Wednesday night. Here's the hourly posting rate since the first thread started a fortnight ago:

nacho libre

Goodbye snow, for now at least, and thanks for the memories:(




"A few light taps upon the pane made him turn to the window. It had begun to snow again. He watched sleepily the flakes, silver and dark, falling obliquely against the lamplight. The time had come for him to set out on his journey westward. Yes, the newspapers were right: snow was general all over Ireland. It was falling on every part of the dark central plain, on the treeless hills, falling softly upon the Bog of Allen and, farther westward, softly falling into the dark mutinous Shannon waves. It was falling, too, upon every part of the lonely churchyard on the hill where Michael Furey lay buried. It lay thickly drifted on the crooked crosses and headstones, on the spears of the little gate, on the barren thorns. His soul swooned slowly as he heard the snow falling faintly through the universe and faintly falling, like the descent of their last end, upon all the living and the dead.”

Casualsingby

GFS going for a countrywide snow event at day 6.

Malayalam

Casualsingby wrote: »

GFS going for a countrywide snow event at day 6.

Haha and so it begins.....

M.T. Cranium

no ....

oh okay.