Severe Weather Snow / Ice Weds 28 FEB ( Onwards ) ** READ MOD NOTE POST#1**

M.T. Cranium

Sure, it was those sea effect streamers on Wednesday hugging the coast plus the synoptic scale snowfalls being southern based that caused that regional difference. But with a different angle of attack, Cork city could have had more than you saw in Kinsale, so it was partly the specific wind direction which was almost parallel to the coast on Wednesday.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

That was an amazing couple of days lads. Fair play to the people who called it. Here in Cork was incredible, most snowfall I've seen in the city. Around roads by the airport were just stunning, drifts up to a metre blocking local roads. I didn't get the chance to post, I had an unfortunate but deserved infraction imposed on me so I couldn't post updates. Amazing stuff, would love to do it all again sometime.

Going to sit down and watch the telly for the night with the last remaining cms of snow covering the back garden.

A photo of the Airport hill from Saturday morning for you all from one of the local football clubs on twitter. http://https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816

Something added a stray http to the https link there.

Here’s a link that works. Worth seeing.

https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816?s=20

4ensic15

irishrover99 wrote: »

I've plenty of milk and food as i stocked up be some people didn't or were unable too.

But your right. Expecting defence forces to put themselves at risk is wrong.
Perhaps they all that they were signing up to run crèches.

The defence forces are takings risks and do so every day. It has nothing to do with putting themselves at risk. You don't care that someone who couldn't be arsed to get milk when the shops were open dies in getting the milk to them. It is absolutely ridiculuos to expect anyone to distribute food within 2 days of a snowfall. No one is going to die without milk or food for two or 3 days. If there were members of the defence forces available for food distribution, which there aren't major practical difficulties arise. where would they get the food? Who would pay for it? Who would decide who is to get the food? Your comments are ignorant and ill-informed. If there was asuspect bomb besid your house, the EOD team from your local barrracks would defuse it at great risk to themselves and you think they should become milkmen when there is a fall of snow?

downthemiddle

Rodin wrote: »

Will be the teachers be out shovelling too?
They're well rested.

You should be well rested too as you had no snow to worry about. Maybe you should offer to help those who weren't as fortunate as yourself.

M.T. Cranium

On that subject of solar minimum and temperatures ...

The mechanism is understood, in long periods of solar "quiet" the Sun is not radiating quite as much heat energy as during the periods of active cycles. This may seem counter-intuitive, the sunspots being darker are themselves cooler regions of the Sun's apparent surface, but that is overcome by a generally lower convective process on the Sun in quiet periods. The differences are not that great in active cycle periods but when the Sun goes quiet for longer spells, two things happen --

(a) the actual sunspot cycles in the quiet period are less dramatic, in the Maunder they apparently disappeared almost entirely for six decades, in the Dalton there were modest peaks, and in the period of the late 19th century that was something of a downturn also, moderate instead of strong peaks.

(b) such peaks as there are, become longer. The Dalton minimum started after a number of strong peaks that reached their max values in 1761, 1769, 1778 and 1787. That last one was a longer lasting cycle with a secondary maximum in 1794 tacked on. Once those high activity peaks were done, the next peak was a weak flat-topped cycle with similar values in all of 1801 to 1804. The Sun then went absolutely quiet around 1809 to 1811 and resumed a very weak cycle that peaked in 1815-16. Another long hiatus followed that with near-zero counts in the early 1820s and the following cycle was not very strong and peaked as late as 1830. The Dalton ended with the reappearance of much stronger activity (1838, 1848, 1860, 1870 are considered strong peaks).

That other moderate downturn featured peaks in 1883, 1893 and 1905-07 that were either weak or moderate.

Since then, the 20th century was a long series of active cycles, the peaks were 1917, 1928, 1937, 1947, 1957, 1968, 1979, and 1989.

The modern period has seen a very similar evolution to the Dalton ... the peak of 1999 to 2001 was perhaps analogous to 1801-04, then a long downturn, quiet Sun years around 2008-10 and a weak peak (like 1816) in 2012-13. So compared to the Dalton we are about where they were in 1820. (I believe the current quiet is known as the Gleissberg (sp?) period after the scientist who first predicted it coming).

Perhaps the current downturn is more similar to the late 19th century than the Dalton (we don't know yet), in which case I would say we are in roughly the position of about 1888 or 1889.

The Maunder is famous for its severe cold, but it's not the best analogy given that there were basically no solar cycles of any significance observed (yes, people had started to notice sunspots in the more active early 17th century) from 1660s to 1700s.

So what kind of frequency of cold winters can one expect if this period is like the Dalton?

I don't think there are any Irish instrumental records from 1795 to 1835 but we do have the old CET records (Central England temperature) and winter temps there are similar to north-central Ireland. In a future post (after I have lunch) I will post the 41 years of CET records from those years and highlight the cold winters. I know offhand that Jan of 1795, 1814, 1820 and 1823 and Dec of 1796 had extreme cold. What this will show will be (a) colder winters are more frequent but (b) not guaranteed, there are milder ones in the mixture.

It's interesting to many observers of this subject too that Tamboro (1815) and Krakatoa (1883) both happened near a weak solar maximum in a noted quiet Sun period. It could be coincidence, or greater stress on the crust brought about after decades of colder weather. The fact that both happened near a solar peak may be the coincidental part, the occurrence within a longer downturn may not be so much.

Going to post those monthly means from the Dalton in about a half an hour maybe. .... posted around 10:42 p.m. maybe a page down from here.

George Sunsnow

Arklow from a drone

https://www.facebook.com/joni.butterworth/posts/10204599738028683

Addle

It's madness really that so much effort has to go into living something that will shortly disappear anyways.

Coopaloop

Well it's been an emotioal few days. I'm still basking in the glow of the snow here in celbridge.
I've loved every snow flake that fell....and every "I told ya so" that I said to the doubters who didn't believe it was coming.

The EPIC big snow of 2018....thanks for the memories everyone.

Back to reality now!!

sryanbruen

wakka12 wrote: »

Is another cold spell quite likely to just be a slushy mess if it occurred that far into march? Even in the spell just there in my part of Dublin there was a lot of daily thawing and they were exceptionally low temps for late feb/early march

You can get "decent" snow as late as April as has happened previously such as in 1917, 1981, 1998, 1999 and 2008. The snow wouldn't last long at all though due to temperatures being rather high and quick recovery, not to mention even higher solar radiation than March. Would certainly turn into a slush fest fast. Gaoth Laidir pretty much says it bang on here of why it would be so fast in comparison to earlier in the Winter: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106337601&postcount=1586

Northern Ireland had a lot of snow lying for much of the second half of March 2013 after the 21/22 March blizzard as temperatures continuously were well below average with not a lot of sunshine in a northeasterly airstream. There would still be thawing - you just can't rule it out at this time of year regardless of what - going on due to the reasons above.

I do not want anymore snow though 'til next Winter. I want benign Spring weather or mild, sunny weather. This spell has made me sick of it. I want normal life to resume. I want to get off the rollercoaster ride and have a break from it all!

sryanbruen

Nettle Soup wrote: »

So you're saying don't take the Christmas tree and lights down just yet? Sound.

You should have done that over two months ago :P

Loughc

sryanbruen wrote: »

You should have done that over two months ago :P

NEVER! haha

ZX7R

Quite a heavy fog rolling in at the moment, it going to add to the all ready dangerous driving conditions, I would not be surprised to see an orange warning for it later.
Kildare

Gonzo

I really enjoyed the snow over the past few days, but the thaw today was not pretty. Mounds of dark brown snow/slush piles throughout Dunshaughlin main street and ponding everywhere.

I reckon this season I've seen more snowfalls than most other years. There was the midlands snow of December 11th which we drove to. Then there was some very brief snowfall during the Christmas holidays and then several snow falls during January and February from the North-West, one of them dumped around 7cm of snow. Then of course there was the beast itself and then Emma.

It's surprising how much snow and sleet I've seen this season, yet not experienced much frost this season.

I would be happy for winter to finally go away now, some welcome mild weather and my thoughts turn towards a hopefully very warm, often sunny and sometimes thundery summer!

piuswal

cherryghost wrote: »

Sunspot activity. A lack of sunspot activity can be directly corellated to weather outcomes on earth. Less activity=colder weather

where?

piuswal

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Of course the Maunder Minimum of the 17th C was accompanied by unlikely events such as the Thames freezing over, but the physical mechanism that explains how sunspot numbers can affect climate is still unknown it seems.

what is the correlation between sunspot numbers and the sun's energy output?

SleetAndSnow

piuswal wrote: »

what is the correlation between sunspot numbers and the sun's energy output?

read the page before this with MT's explanation......

Nettle Soup

sryanbruen wrote: »

You should have done that over two months ago :P

I put them back up when I heard the Beasterly was coming!

FastFullBack

revelman wrote: »

I wonder is this some sort of lake effect around Cork Harbour? At the other side of the habour, the Roche’s point side, places like Cloyne were hammered too, with a voluntary ME station there recording 40cm of snow. I say lake effect because the snow was heaviest right on the coast itself. The further away from the coast, you got much less snow.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sure, it was those sea effect streamers on Wednesday hugging the coast plus the synoptic scale snowfalls being southern based that caused that regional difference. But with a different angle of attack, Cork city could have had more than you saw in Kinsale, so it was partly the specific wind direction which was almost parallel to the coast on Wednesday.

I think the lake effect snow was from the Irish sea right? But as MT mentions the wind direction at the time meant the streamers skimmed down along the coast from Wexford, Waterford and onto Cork.
I took some screenshots of the radars at the time (hoping they'd hit Cork City more) and consistently they all followed a similar path, missing alot of Waterford ( I remember some posters mentioning West Waterford got little snow at the time), partially hitting Youghal, then hitting the Garryvoe area, onto Roche's Point, Carrigaline, Kinsale, Courtmacsherry, Clonality and on down the coast.

https://flic.kr/p/FevAJ8

My parents in Barryroe near Clonality got absolutely smashed with snow. Like yourself revelman, they finally were able to get out today after seeing huge snow drifts. Picture below is a small Road, you can see the ditches on either side.

https://flic.kr/p/24Tyfon

I was out around Cork today as well, Ballincollig’s snow was pretty much all gone, Matthew Hill on south side of city still had a fair bit and Carrigaline still had loads.

I’ve not been following weather for long but around Cork, the weather always comes from the west. Ballincollig is always one of the first areas around the city to get snow, Carrigaline is always slow to get snow. Just shows how mad the last few days were.

Cork Boy 53

I don't know if it happened in this country but I do know that snow fell in London in June 1975 which, to say the least, was remarkable at that time of year.

Jim Gazebo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Something added a stray http to the https link there.

Here’s a link that works. Worth seeing.

https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816?s=20

Cheers fella, had no idea what happened. Class photo all the same.

Bananaleaf

Gonzo wrote: »

I really enjoyed the snow over the past few days, but the thaw today was not pretty. Mounds of dark brown snow/slush piles throughout Dunshaughlin main street and ponding everywhere.

Yep was bad, but, a slower thaw would have been a nightmare. I've always said that the snow is great but it's when it starts to thaw is the worst. But, this time at least the thaw is happening really quickly

M.T. Cranium

Mean temperatures 1781 to 1840 (Central England Temperature series)

YEAR __JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1781__ 2.1 4.8 6.6 _9.2 12.1 16.2 17.4 17.3 14.2 10.6 6.5 5.4
1782__ 5.2 1.9 4.1 _5.2 _9.0 14.9 15.6 14.2 13.3 _7.6 2.3 2.8
1783__ 3.4 3.3 3.3 10.1 10.4 14.8 18.8 15.8 12.8 _9.8 6.2 2.7
1784_--0.6 1.4 2.7 _5.7 13.5 13.7 15.2 14.0 14.8 _7.8 5.5 0.3
1785__ 3.4 0.4 1.2 _8.4 12.3 16.1 16.1 13.9 13.6 _8.7 5.6 2.8
1786__ 2.7 3.4 2.1 _8.1 11.2 16.1 15.0 15.1 11.7 _7.5 3.3 2.8
1787__ 3.6 5.9 6.8 _7.4 11.5 13.9 15.8 15.6 12.8 _9.8 4.5 3.8
1788__ 3.9 3.8 3.6 _9.4 13.8 15.4 15.8 15.8 13.4 _9.8 6.1 -0.3
1789__ 1.5 5.0 2.1 _7.4 12.5 14.0 15.4 16.6 13.1 _8.6 4.6 6.1
1790__ 4.3 6.6 6.4 _6.1 11.9 14.6 14.9 15.6 12.2 10.3 6.1 4.3
1791__ 4.3 4.7 6.5 _9.6 10.6 14.7 15.3 15.9 13.8 _8.9 5.9 1.1
1792__ 2.3 4.5 5.9 10.0 10.2 13.2 15.3 16.9 11.8 _8.8 7.1 4.3
1793__ 2.8 4.6 4.2 _6.2 10.9 13.5 17.6 15.0 11.7 11.3 6.0 5.3
1794__ 1.8 7.2 7.0 10.2 11.3 15.7 18.1 15.5 12.5 _9.6 6.1 3.7
1795_--3.1 0.8 3.9 _7.7 10.9 13.2 15.2 16.6 16.0 11.7 4.5 6.6
1796__ 7.3 4.7 4.2 10.2 10.3 13.9 14.7 15.9 14.6 _8.1 4.6 -0.3
1797__ 3.5 4.6 4.3 _7.4 11.3 13.6 17.3 15.8 12.5 _8.2 4.7 4.8
1798__ 3.6 4.0 5.1 10.4 12.9 16.9 16.3 16.4 13.6 _9.9 4.7 1.5
1799__ 1.7 2.8 3.4 _5.4 _9.6 14.1 15.2 14.4 12.9 _8.3 5.6 1.3
1800__ 2.8 2.2 4.0 _9.3 12.3 13.9 17.7 16.8 13.9 _9.2 5.4 3.3
1801__ 4.6 4.8 6.7 _8.3 12.1 14.8 16.1 17.1 14.2 10.2 4.8 1.5
1802__ 1.6 3.7 5.6 _8.9 10.6 13.7 13.5 17.2 13.8 10.1 5.1 3.6
1803__ 1.8 3.4 6.3 _9.1 10.5 13.7 17.6 16.1 11.4 _9.3 5.0 4.4
1804__ 5.8 2.9 4.7 _6.9 13.3 16.1 15.9 15.6 14.2 10.7 6.6 2.1
1805__ 2.1 4.1 6.2 _8.3 10.2 13.2 16.0 16.4 14.6 _8.2 4.8 3.6
1806__ 4.2 4.3 5.1 _6.8 12.1 14.9 15.4 16.2 13.4 10.6 7.8 6.8
1807__ 2.8 3.7 2.9 _7.7 11.8 14.2 17.1 16.9 10.5 11.4 2.9 1.9
1808__ 2.6 2.8 3.2 _5.8 13.7 14.8 18.4 16.7 12.7 _7.2 6.0 2.2
1809__ 2.0 5.7 6.0 _5.2 13.1 13.7 15.1 14.8 12.7 10.2 4.6 4.1
1810__ 2.2 3.5 4.9 _8.2 _9.2 14.6 15.2 14.6 13.9 _9.8 5.4 3.6
1811__ 1.2 4.6 7.1 _8.9 12.8 14.1 16.1 14.4 13.7 12.3 7.7 3.1
1812__ 2.6 5.3 3.5 _5.5 10.9 13.0 14.2 14.3 13.2 _9.3 4.9 1.7
1813__ 1.9 5.8 6.8 _7.6 11.6 13.6 15.0 14.5 12.5 _8.1 4.3 2.8
1814_--2.9 1.4 2.9 _9.6 _9.2 12.2 16.0 14.7 12.8 _8.1 4.7 4.3
1815__ 0.3 6.5 7.3 _8.1 12.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 13.4 10.3 3.4 2.3
1816__ 2.7 2.1 3.9 _6.6 _9.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 11.8 10.3 3.9 3.1
1817__ 4.5 6.4 5.5 _7.6 _8.7 15.1 14.1 13.6 13.2 _6.4 9.1 2.5
1818__ 4.4 2.7 4.5 _6.9 11.3 16.4 18.2 15.3 13.3 12.0 9.5 3.6
1819__ 4.4 4.3 6.8 _8.6 11.5 13.4 16.4 17.4 13.4 _9.1 4.1 1.4
1820_--0.3 3.2 4.7 _8.9 11.4 13.6 15.7 14.7 12.3 _8.1 5.6 4.7
1821__ 3.6 2.1 5.7 _9.5 _9.4 12.3 14.8 16.4 14.9 10.4 8.6 6.4
1822__ 4.7 6.3 7.8 _8.3 12.7 17.1 15.6 15.2 12.4 10.7 8.2 1.6
1823__-0.1 3.1 5.0 _6.7 12.2 12.3 14.1 14.4 12.5 _8.4 7.1 4.8
1824__ 4.3 4.7 4.6 _7.4 10.7 13.4 16.0 15.1 13.7 _9.5 7.2 5.1
1825__ 3.8 3.9 5.0 _9.1 11.6 14.1 17.2 16.3 15.1 10.8 5.2 4.6
1826__ 0.4 6.4 6.3 _8.8 11.2 17.3 17.9 17.6 13.6 11.1 4.4 5.8
1827__ 1.7 0.7 5.9 _8.9 11.9 14.2 16.5 14.8 13.7 11.4 6.9 6.9
1828__ 5.1 5.2 6.6 _8.3 12.4 15.4 16.0 15.3 14.3 10.2 7.4 7.4
1829__ 0.3 4.3 4.3 _6.7 12.5 14.9 15.1 14.3 11.3 _8.3 4.5 1.4
1830_--0.2 2.2 7.7 _8.9 12.0 12.7 16.2 13.7 11.9 10.4 6.9 1.8
1831__ 1.6 4.8 7.2 _9.2 11.5 15.4 16.7 16.9 13.7 12.7 5.6 5.8
1832__ 3.1 3.4 5.8 _8.6 10.9 15.2 15.9 15.4 13.6 10.7 5.9 5.2
1833__ 1.2 5.6 3.9 _7.7 15.1 14.6 15.8 14.3 12.1 10.1 6.6 6.9
1834__ 7.1 5.6 7.1 _7.7 13.0 15.4 16.9 16.2 13.8 10.6 6.7 5.6
1835__ 2.9 5.7 5.8 _8.6 11.3 15.0 16.4 16.9 13.4 _8.9 6.6 3.1
1836__ 3.7 3.5 5.8 _7.2 11.1 15.3 15.4 14.6 11.7 _8.6 5.3 4.1
1837__ 2.7 4.7 2.3 _4.7 _9.9 15.5 16.9 15.7 12.5 10.5 5.2 5.3
1838_--1.5 0.4 4.9 _6.1 10.5 14.4 15.6 15.1 12.7 _9.8 4.6 4.0
1839__ 2.8 4.1 4.2 _6.4 10.2 14.3 14.9 14.6 12.4 _9.3 7.3 3.7
1840__ 4.1 3.6 3.8 _9.7 11.4 14.1 13.8 15.9 11.1 _7.5 5.8 1.3
______________________________________________________________________________________

So, a quick analysis of the above ...

Cold winter months (2.0 or lower) are marked in bold. This includes March 1785 (you can find some info on that year in the technical thread as we just locked horns with daily records set in 1785 on 28 Feb and 1 March. The year ended up quite warm and dry for the early summer and cool and wet later. Anyway, with these colder months marked, it's easy to see visually that the Dalton got progressively colder then began to see a return to milder winters on average (although Jan 1838 was markedly cold). I also drew attention to Nov 1782 which was the coldest November in the 360 years of records.

Months marked in red are notably warm months (above 5.5 Jan, 6.0 Feb, 7.5 Mar, 10 Apr, 13 May, 16 Jun, 17.8 Jul, 17.2 Aug, 14.5 Sep, 11.5 Oct, 7.5 Nov or 6.0 Dec). There were a few of these even in the Dalton, perhaps not as many as at random. May 1833 is still the warmest May on record. The summer of 1826 was one of the warmest. The winter of 1833-34 is one of the mildest.

Going to post this now and continue to edit in warm months (red type will appear) and space the columns a bit more evenly, but you can already see the cold nature of the Dalton, in particular 1814 to 1831 stands out. In those 19 winters, 10 had at least one cold month (< 2.0) and two others had three colder than average months.

Note also how cold the summer of 1816 was, and unusual cold weather in May and October of 1817. These were probably the additional effects of the volcanic dust veil from Tamboro.

The general take-away here is that a long downturn in solar activity slowly began to leave an imprint on temperatures (in Britain and presumably also in Ireland) with the coldest winters in particular coming in the period 1814 to 1831 when the majority of winters had at least one cold month (< 2.0).

physioman

Camdyn Thundering Rain wrote: »

Yes. In these conditions that seem like a realistic and honest estimate. Good man.

Like everyone else I have to look after my own estate and neighbours and then get to elderly parents in two separate areas first. When that's done I'll see if I can get to the school.

Just get up that bit earlier and you'll make it to school

jimbis

I had done lots of pre-snow shots with the drone in the hopes of getting lots of comparasment shots but between the weather and life I couldn't get any of the latter bar this one.
Very short clip of March 1st and March 4th at Sandyford/M50

With thanks to all you clever people in this forum that gave me the confidence to prepare and expect this event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GkczD_D2s

SteelyDanJalapeno

Is there strong winds due? Or have they came and gone?

irish_stevo815

Now that it's almost all over I just want to say thank you to everyone here over the past few days.

I didn't contribute much myself but it was great to see people's reactions and live updates from their areas. I was like a child especially Thursday night when it was all about to kick off.

So thanks for the memories.

Loughc

I just want to chime in as well and say thanks to everyone. These threads embody the spirit of boards and shows why Facebook and Snapchat pale in comparison to the community spirit on here.

Fantastic few days since Tuesday evening thanks for making it so much fun and for all the memories.

STB.

Rodin wrote: »

Not a bit of snow where I am.
Have you not been listening?

I heard you loud and clear. You just listen to yourself and dont bother reading the responses though.

You werent affected and think they should have predicted the situation on a more pin point basis for your small town instead of issuing a more widespread warning to preserve life.

You expect teachers (just another worker) to clear the driveways etc of schools presumably when they clear their own driveways.

Yeah neither is an acceptable suggestion other than in your own head.

---

Well done Kermit, MT, Gaoth, et al for the heads up. A lot of people were well prepared. The thread has lots of lovely photos too.

The mods may now retire to a dark room.

Spanish Eyes

I echo all the kudos. Was a great adventure.

Good that we survived and are safe home too.

Mods deserve a lot of credit too. Well done.

Jim Gazebo

Is anybody here near the Galtees? Love a hike up them when it spits snow in Cork, as there's always a lot up there. I can only imagine what it must be like up there! Hopefully get up there today or tomorrow for a look. Will post pics if I do.