Severe Weather Snow / Ice Weds 28 FEB ( Onwards ) ** READ MOD NOTE POST#1**

greasepalm

very glad of boards to have some very interesting posts and warnings to let us know whats ahead thanks guys,until the same time next week? maybe.

Nettle Soup

Kermit, Sryanbruen, what is your take on a possible cold re-load in a weeks time?

Jim Gazebo

That was an amazing couple of days lads. Fair play to the people who called it. Here in Cork was incredible, most snowfall I've seen in the city. Around roads by the airport were just stunning, drifts up to a metre blocking local roads. I didn't get the chance to post, I had an unfortunate but deserved infraction imposed on me so I couldn't post updates. Amazing stuff, would love to do it all again sometime.

Going to sit down and watch the telly for the night with the last remaining cms of snow covering the back garden.

A photo of the Airport hill from Saturday morning for you all from one of the local football clubs on twitter. http://https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816

gyppo

Hi, I have an appointment in the Hermitage clinic tomorrow AM. Will be coming from Athlone area. Any issues in the lucan/liffey valley area?
Thanks!

Amalgam

Amalgam wrote: »

I've quite likely lost a cat to this storm, sadly. The guilt is like a billiard ball in my chest/under my skin.

I was looking after someone's cat and I warned them that he was a nervous wreck due to local, uneutered cats.. He wasn't making himself available for food/to be fed.. and to maybe put him up in care, no.. said they'd chance it. I haven't seen him in 48 hours.

He weathered the last two flurries okay, over the years, by making himself available to various neighbours, but.. it is brutal now, the road and gardens are spotless, no details to mark them out. Drifts everywhere. Well above the height of a cat.

Our regular fox, like clockwork, is doing his rounds of the gardens, same time, same tracks, the only disturbance in the snow.

He came back today, with ice cold legs and hungry.. the ungrateful, evasive little git.

Ratty and demanding, got his food then fecked off again..

PirateShampoo

gyppo wrote: »

Hi, I have an appointment in the Hermitage clinic tomorrow AM. Will be coming from Athlone area. Any issues in the lucan/liffey valley area?
Thanks!

Hermitage will be fine, they have been de-icing ever since the snow started falling

endacl

Rodin wrote: »

My point is they're happy enough to ask parents above their own staff.

To continue the ‘digging’ theme...

You’re at the bottom of the hole. You can stop now. Good man.

haminka

Amalgam wrote: »

He came back today, with ice cold legs and hungry.. the ungrateful, evasive little git.

Ratty and demanding, got his food then fecked off again..

Mine didn't want to get out of the house. The first taste of the icky white stuff and they turned around and went back inside. They are total outdoor gangsters, just hate the snow. I had to install a temporary loo for them and when it wasn't cleaned immediately in the evening, my older cat peed into my walking boots while I was standing beside him cleaning something else.
The younger one tried using it again this morning before I dismantled it. I grabbed her, successfully manage to avoid the claws and teeth all ready to sink in and threw her out of the door (then raced to the cat flap and barely managed to close it before she got back). No excuses now, the toilet is outside.

endacl

_Dara_ wrote: »

There no indication that teachers aren’t getting involved in the digging. They’re probably looking for as many hands as they can get. A teacher replied to you on this thread very thread to say that they’d be getting involved in the digging. And asking people to help is helping people LEAVE their houses. What are you on about? Talk about unfocused grousing.

A truly pathetic swipe at teachers here. Perhaps you should ask for volunteers to dig that chip off your shoulder?

I spent the morning/afternoon digging out here. We’ve a primary school around the corner. I don’t teach in that school.

Conundrum for Rodin: I spent a good chunk of the day clearing the road and footpath that leads past a school. As did everybody else who lives around. Those that couldn’t, for whatever reason, brought the rest of us cups of tea and sangers. I’m a teacher, but I don’t teach in that school. One or two of the others were as well. How do you propose to take a pop at me? What did I do wrong today that would allow for a spot of teacher bashing?

sryanbruen

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Kermit, Sryanbruen, what is your take on a possible cold re-load in a weeks time?

To be honest, with the state of the stratosphere, anything could happen. I do not put my money on a cold reload by any means, nor do I put my money on a warm spell. To me, a cold reload is more likely than a warm spell that's for sure due to the southerly track of the Polar Jet and the state of the zonal winds.

I'd say to keep your eyes on the posts we do and we'll start talking if any certainty grows on what's exactly going to happen. The stratosphere is just too unique that there's nothing historically to base off of.

Cantona's Collars

Some amount of moaning Minnie's on our schools WhatsApp group. Car parks cleared,yard up to the doors cleared and yet some are wondering if it's safe to send kids to school "cos the basketball court and pitch still have snow on them."
The amount of stupid comments on the group is mind boggling. "There's snow on the roadside". "Will the kids be outside at break?"

Lumi

Mod Note

Some of the bickering, personal attacks and hostile posts on this thread are painful to read! most have been deleted.

All posts relating to discussion of Weather Warnings have been moved to the dedicated thread HERE


All posts relating to winter weather preparations/driving tips have been moved HERE

Can we get back to discussing the weather please - civilly.

wakka12

sryanbruen wrote: »

To be honest, with the state of the stratosphere, anything could happen. I do not put my money on a cold reload by any means, nor do I put my money on a warm spell. To me, a cold reload is more likely than a warm spell that's for sure due to the southerly track of the Polar Jet and the state of the zonal winds.

I'd say to keep your eyes on the posts we do and we'll start talking if any certainty grows on what's exactly going to happen. The stratosphere is just too unique that there's nothing historically to base off of.

Is another cold spell quite likely to just be a slushy mess if it occurred that far into march? Even in the spell just there in my part of Dublin there was a lot of daily thawing and they were exceptionally low temps for late feb/early march

pauldry

I dont see another extreme cold reload. For Emma I was seeing a Wednesday to Friday timeframe all along. However like syran I dont see the mild that Met Eireann are mentioning although im more a GFS man than ECM and so therein the disagreement lies.

Could be a storm to contend with next weekend. There seems to be an awful lot of "events" the past few months. Hope we get a heatwave event in June

foxyladyxx

Lumi wrote: »

Mod Note

Some of the bickering, personal attacks and hostile posts on this thread are painful to read! most have been deleted.

All posts relating to discussion of Weather Warnings have been moved to the dedicated thread HERE


All posts relating to winter weather preparations/driving tips have been moved HERE

Can we get back to discussing the weather please - civilly.

Was a mod on a very busy group ..I have to say the modding here is excellent. Every time I want to alert re some posts I find that an admin has got in before I have had to . .take a bow.

Awaaf

Thanks to all the forecasters who gave us the heads up. Thanks for all the factual reports of local conditions which help to form a view on what is happening and the biggest shout out of all to whoever alerted me to the €6 Argos Snow Shovel! My new BFF!

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/970184259439915008

Nettle Soup

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Kermit, Sryanbruen, what is your take on a possible cold re-load in a weeks time?

To be honest, with the state of the stratosphere, anything could happen. I do not put my money on a cold reload by any means, nor do I put my money on a warm spell. To me, a cold reload is more likely than a warm spell that's for sure due to the southerly track of the Polar Jet and the state of the zonal winds.

I'd say to keep your eyes on the posts we do and we'll start talking if any certainty grows on what's exactly going to happen. The stratosphere is just too unique that there's nothing historically to base off of.

So you're saying don't take the Christmas tree and lights down just yet? Sound.

Cantona's Collars

Country file forecast giving wet and windy weather next Friday. Might add to the flood problem from snow thawing all week.

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC

Meteorite58 wrote: »

*Twitter video, see above*

The UK?

revelman

We were finally able to leave our house today after being stuck since Tuesday evening. We were lucky enough to have farmer clear our country road. We spent the morning clearing the driveway. Despite the thaw since yesterday there was still compacted ice under the snow! We went into Kinsale and then on to Cork. Most of the streets in Kinsale had been cleared but there was still a lot of snow around. On the way to Cork we saw less and less snow and in the city itself you wouldn’t even know it had been snowing. The Kinsale area seems to have had a substantial amount of snow. I wonder is this some sort of lake effect around Cork Harbour? At the other side of the habour, the Roche’s point side, places like Cloyne were hammered too, with a voluntary ME station there recording 40cm of snow. I say lake effect because the snow was heaviest right on the coast itself. The further away from the coast, you got much less snow.

M.T. Cranium

Sure, it was those sea effect streamers on Wednesday hugging the coast plus the synoptic scale snowfalls being southern based that caused that regional difference. But with a different angle of attack, Cork city could have had more than you saw in Kinsale, so it was partly the specific wind direction which was almost parallel to the coast on Wednesday.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

That was an amazing couple of days lads. Fair play to the people who called it. Here in Cork was incredible, most snowfall I've seen in the city. Around roads by the airport were just stunning, drifts up to a metre blocking local roads. I didn't get the chance to post, I had an unfortunate but deserved infraction imposed on me so I couldn't post updates. Amazing stuff, would love to do it all again sometime.

Going to sit down and watch the telly for the night with the last remaining cms of snow covering the back garden.

A photo of the Airport hill from Saturday morning for you all from one of the local football clubs on twitter. http://https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816

Something added a stray http to the https link there.

Here’s a link that works. Worth seeing.

https://twitter.com/DouglasHallAFC/status/969513708652322816?s=20

4ensic15

irishrover99 wrote: »

I've plenty of milk and food as i stocked up be some people didn't or were unable too.

But your right. Expecting defence forces to put themselves at risk is wrong.
Perhaps they all that they were signing up to run crèches.

The defence forces are takings risks and do so every day. It has nothing to do with putting themselves at risk. You don't care that someone who couldn't be arsed to get milk when the shops were open dies in getting the milk to them. It is absolutely ridiculuos to expect anyone to distribute food within 2 days of a snowfall. No one is going to die without milk or food for two or 3 days. If there were members of the defence forces available for food distribution, which there aren't major practical difficulties arise. where would they get the food? Who would pay for it? Who would decide who is to get the food? Your comments are ignorant and ill-informed. If there was asuspect bomb besid your house, the EOD team from your local barrracks would defuse it at great risk to themselves and you think they should become milkmen when there is a fall of snow?

downthemiddle

Rodin wrote: »

Will be the teachers be out shovelling too?
They're well rested.

You should be well rested too as you had no snow to worry about. Maybe you should offer to help those who weren't as fortunate as yourself.

M.T. Cranium

On that subject of solar minimum and temperatures ...

The mechanism is understood, in long periods of solar "quiet" the Sun is not radiating quite as much heat energy as during the periods of active cycles. This may seem counter-intuitive, the sunspots being darker are themselves cooler regions of the Sun's apparent surface, but that is overcome by a generally lower convective process on the Sun in quiet periods. The differences are not that great in active cycle periods but when the Sun goes quiet for longer spells, two things happen --

(a) the actual sunspot cycles in the quiet period are less dramatic, in the Maunder they apparently disappeared almost entirely for six decades, in the Dalton there were modest peaks, and in the period of the late 19th century that was something of a downturn also, moderate instead of strong peaks.

(b) such peaks as there are, become longer. The Dalton minimum started after a number of strong peaks that reached their max values in 1761, 1769, 1778 and 1787. That last one was a longer lasting cycle with a secondary maximum in 1794 tacked on. Once those high activity peaks were done, the next peak was a weak flat-topped cycle with similar values in all of 1801 to 1804. The Sun then went absolutely quiet around 1809 to 1811 and resumed a very weak cycle that peaked in 1815-16. Another long hiatus followed that with near-zero counts in the early 1820s and the following cycle was not very strong and peaked as late as 1830. The Dalton ended with the reappearance of much stronger activity (1838, 1848, 1860, 1870 are considered strong peaks).

That other moderate downturn featured peaks in 1883, 1893 and 1905-07 that were either weak or moderate.

Since then, the 20th century was a long series of active cycles, the peaks were 1917, 1928, 1937, 1947, 1957, 1968, 1979, and 1989.

The modern period has seen a very similar evolution to the Dalton ... the peak of 1999 to 2001 was perhaps analogous to 1801-04, then a long downturn, quiet Sun years around 2008-10 and a weak peak (like 1816) in 2012-13. So compared to the Dalton we are about where they were in 1820. (I believe the current quiet is known as the Gleissberg (sp?) period after the scientist who first predicted it coming).

Perhaps the current downturn is more similar to the late 19th century than the Dalton (we don't know yet), in which case I would say we are in roughly the position of about 1888 or 1889.

The Maunder is famous for its severe cold, but it's not the best analogy given that there were basically no solar cycles of any significance observed (yes, people had started to notice sunspots in the more active early 17th century) from 1660s to 1700s.

So what kind of frequency of cold winters can one expect if this period is like the Dalton?

I don't think there are any Irish instrumental records from 1795 to 1835 but we do have the old CET records (Central England temperature) and winter temps there are similar to north-central Ireland. In a future post (after I have lunch) I will post the 41 years of CET records from those years and highlight the cold winters. I know offhand that Jan of 1795, 1814, 1820 and 1823 and Dec of 1796 had extreme cold. What this will show will be (a) colder winters are more frequent but (b) not guaranteed, there are milder ones in the mixture.

It's interesting to many observers of this subject too that Tamboro (1815) and Krakatoa (1883) both happened near a weak solar maximum in a noted quiet Sun period. It could be coincidence, or greater stress on the crust brought about after decades of colder weather. The fact that both happened near a solar peak may be the coincidental part, the occurrence within a longer downturn may not be so much.

Going to post those monthly means from the Dalton in about a half an hour maybe. .... posted around 10:42 p.m. maybe a page down from here.

George Sunsnow

Arklow from a drone

https://www.facebook.com/joni.butterworth/posts/10204599738028683

Addle

It's madness really that so much effort has to go into living something that will shortly disappear anyways.

Coopaloop

Well it's been an emotioal few days. I'm still basking in the glow of the snow here in celbridge.
I've loved every snow flake that fell....and every "I told ya so" that I said to the doubters who didn't believe it was coming.

The EPIC big snow of 2018....thanks for the memories everyone.

Back to reality now!!