Severe Weather Snow / Ice Weds 28 FEB ( Onwards ) ** READ MOD NOTE POST#1**

I dont see another extreme cold reload. For Emma I was seeing a Wednesday to Friday timeframe all along. However like syran I dont see the mild that Met Eireann are mentioning although im more a GFS man than ECM and so therein the disagreement lies.

Could be a storm to contend with next weekend. There seems to be an awful lot of "events" the past few months. Hope we get a heatwave event in June

We were finally able to leave our house today after being stuck since Tuesday evening. We were lucky enough to have farmer clear our country road. We spent the morning clearing the driveway. Despite the thaw since yesterday there was still compacted ice under the snow! We went into Kinsale and then on to Cork. Most of the streets in Kinsale had been cleared but there was still a lot of snow around. On the way to Cork we saw less and less snow and in the city itself you wouldn’t even know it had been snowing. The Kinsale area seems to have had a substantial amount of snow. I wonder is this some sort of lake effect around Cork Harbour? At the other side of the habour, the Roche’s point side, places like Cloyne were hammered too, with a voluntary ME station there recording 40cm of snow. I say lake effect because the snow was heaviest right on the coast itself. The further away from the coast, you got much less snow.

Rodin wrote: »

Will be the teachers be out shovelling too?
They're well rested.

You should be well rested too as you had no snow to worry about. Maybe you should offer to help those who weren't as fortunate as yourself.

Well it's been an emotioal few days. I'm still basking in the glow of the snow here in celbridge.
I've loved every snow flake that fell....and every "I told ya so" that I said to the doubters who didn't believe it was coming.

The EPIC big snow of 2018....thanks for the memories everyone.

Back to reality now!!

Nettle Soup wrote: »

So you're saying don't take the Christmas tree and lights down just yet? Sound.

You should have done that over two months ago :P

cherryghost wrote: »

Sunspot activity. A lack of sunspot activity can be directly corellated to weather outcomes on earth. Less activity=colder weather

where?

revelman wrote: »

I wonder is this some sort of lake effect around Cork Harbour? At the other side of the habour, the Roche’s point side, places like Cloyne were hammered too, with a voluntary ME station there recording 40cm of snow. I say lake effect because the snow was heaviest right on the coast itself. The further away from the coast, you got much less snow.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sure, it was those sea effect streamers on Wednesday hugging the coast plus the synoptic scale snowfalls being southern based that caused that regional difference. But with a different angle of attack, Cork city could have had more than you saw in Kinsale, so it was partly the specific wind direction which was almost parallel to the coast on Wednesday.

I think the lake effect snow was from the Irish sea right? But as MT mentions the wind direction at the time meant the streamers skimmed down along the coast from Wexford, Waterford and onto Cork.
I took some screenshots of the radars at the time (hoping they'd hit Cork City more) and consistently they all followed a similar path, missing alot of Waterford ( I remember some posters mentioning West Waterford got little snow at the time), partially hitting Youghal, then hitting the Garryvoe area, onto Roche's Point, Carrigaline, Kinsale, Courtmacsherry, Clonality and on down the coast.

https://flic.kr/p/FevAJ8

My parents in Barryroe near Clonality got absolutely smashed with snow. Like yourself revelman, they finally were able to get out today after seeing huge snow drifts. Picture below is a small Road, you can see the ditches on either side.

https://flic.kr/p/24Tyfon

I was out around Cork today as well, Ballincollig’s snow was pretty much all gone, Matthew Hill on south side of city still had a fair bit and Carrigaline still had loads.

I’ve not been following weather for long but around Cork, the weather always comes from the west. Ballincollig is always one of the first areas around the city to get snow, Carrigaline is always slow to get snow. Just shows how mad the last few days were.

Mean temperatures 1781 to 1840 (Central England Temperature series)

YEAR __JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1781__ 2.1 4.8 6.6 _9.2 12.1 16.2 17.4 17.3 14.2 10.6 6.5 5.4
1782__ 5.2 1.9 4.1 _5.2 _9.0 14.9 15.6 14.2 13.3 _7.6 2.3 2.8
1783__ 3.4 3.3 3.3 10.1 10.4 14.8 18.8 15.8 12.8 _9.8 6.2 2.7
1784_--0.6 1.4 2.7 _5.7 13.5 13.7 15.2 14.0 14.8 _7.8 5.5 0.3
1785__ 3.4 0.4 1.2 _8.4 12.3 16.1 16.1 13.9 13.6 _8.7 5.6 2.8
1786__ 2.7 3.4 2.1 _8.1 11.2 16.1 15.0 15.1 11.7 _7.5 3.3 2.8
1787__ 3.6 5.9 6.8 _7.4 11.5 13.9 15.8 15.6 12.8 _9.8 4.5 3.8
1788__ 3.9 3.8 3.6 _9.4 13.8 15.4 15.8 15.8 13.4 _9.8 6.1 -0.3
1789__ 1.5 5.0 2.1 _7.4 12.5 14.0 15.4 16.6 13.1 _8.6 4.6 6.1
1790__ 4.3 6.6 6.4 _6.1 11.9 14.6 14.9 15.6 12.2 10.3 6.1 4.3
1791__ 4.3 4.7 6.5 _9.6 10.6 14.7 15.3 15.9 13.8 _8.9 5.9 1.1
1792__ 2.3 4.5 5.9 10.0 10.2 13.2 15.3 16.9 11.8 _8.8 7.1 4.3
1793__ 2.8 4.6 4.2 _6.2 10.9 13.5 17.6 15.0 11.7 11.3 6.0 5.3
1794__ 1.8 7.2 7.0 10.2 11.3 15.7 18.1 15.5 12.5 _9.6 6.1 3.7
1795_--3.1 0.8 3.9 _7.7 10.9 13.2 15.2 16.6 16.0 11.7 4.5 6.6
1796__ 7.3 4.7 4.2 10.2 10.3 13.9 14.7 15.9 14.6 _8.1 4.6 -0.3
1797__ 3.5 4.6 4.3 _7.4 11.3 13.6 17.3 15.8 12.5 _8.2 4.7 4.8
1798__ 3.6 4.0 5.1 10.4 12.9 16.9 16.3 16.4 13.6 _9.9 4.7 1.5
1799__ 1.7 2.8 3.4 _5.4 _9.6 14.1 15.2 14.4 12.9 _8.3 5.6 1.3
1800__ 2.8 2.2 4.0 _9.3 12.3 13.9 17.7 16.8 13.9 _9.2 5.4 3.3
1801__ 4.6 4.8 6.7 _8.3 12.1 14.8 16.1 17.1 14.2 10.2 4.8 1.5
1802__ 1.6 3.7 5.6 _8.9 10.6 13.7 13.5 17.2 13.8 10.1 5.1 3.6
1803__ 1.8 3.4 6.3 _9.1 10.5 13.7 17.6 16.1 11.4 _9.3 5.0 4.4
1804__ 5.8 2.9 4.7 _6.9 13.3 16.1 15.9 15.6 14.2 10.7 6.6 2.1
1805__ 2.1 4.1 6.2 _8.3 10.2 13.2 16.0 16.4 14.6 _8.2 4.8 3.6
1806__ 4.2 4.3 5.1 _6.8 12.1 14.9 15.4 16.2 13.4 10.6 7.8 6.8
1807__ 2.8 3.7 2.9 _7.7 11.8 14.2 17.1 16.9 10.5 11.4 2.9 1.9
1808__ 2.6 2.8 3.2 _5.8 13.7 14.8 18.4 16.7 12.7 _7.2 6.0 2.2
1809__ 2.0 5.7 6.0 _5.2 13.1 13.7 15.1 14.8 12.7 10.2 4.6 4.1
1810__ 2.2 3.5 4.9 _8.2 _9.2 14.6 15.2 14.6 13.9 _9.8 5.4 3.6
1811__ 1.2 4.6 7.1 _8.9 12.8 14.1 16.1 14.4 13.7 12.3 7.7 3.1
1812__ 2.6 5.3 3.5 _5.5 10.9 13.0 14.2 14.3 13.2 _9.3 4.9 1.7
1813__ 1.9 5.8 6.8 _7.6 11.6 13.6 15.0 14.5 12.5 _8.1 4.3 2.8
1814_--2.9 1.4 2.9 _9.6 _9.2 12.2 16.0 14.7 12.8 _8.1 4.7 4.3
1815__ 0.3 6.5 7.3 _8.1 12.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 13.4 10.3 3.4 2.3
1816__ 2.7 2.1 3.9 _6.6 _9.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 11.8 10.3 3.9 3.1
1817__ 4.5 6.4 5.5 _7.6 _8.7 15.1 14.1 13.6 13.2 _6.4 9.1 2.5
1818__ 4.4 2.7 4.5 _6.9 11.3 16.4 18.2 15.3 13.3 12.0 9.5 3.6
1819__ 4.4 4.3 6.8 _8.6 11.5 13.4 16.4 17.4 13.4 _9.1 4.1 1.4
1820_--0.3 3.2 4.7 _8.9 11.4 13.6 15.7 14.7 12.3 _8.1 5.6 4.7
1821__ 3.6 2.1 5.7 _9.5 _9.4 12.3 14.8 16.4 14.9 10.4 8.6 6.4
1822__ 4.7 6.3 7.8 _8.3 12.7 17.1 15.6 15.2 12.4 10.7 8.2 1.6
1823__-0.1 3.1 5.0 _6.7 12.2 12.3 14.1 14.4 12.5 _8.4 7.1 4.8
1824__ 4.3 4.7 4.6 _7.4 10.7 13.4 16.0 15.1 13.7 _9.5 7.2 5.1
1825__ 3.8 3.9 5.0 _9.1 11.6 14.1 17.2 16.3 15.1 10.8 5.2 4.6
1826__ 0.4 6.4 6.3 _8.8 11.2 17.3 17.9 17.6 13.6 11.1 4.4 5.8
1827__ 1.7 0.7 5.9 _8.9 11.9 14.2 16.5 14.8 13.7 11.4 6.9 6.9
1828__ 5.1 5.2 6.6 _8.3 12.4 15.4 16.0 15.3 14.3 10.2 7.4 7.4
1829__ 0.3 4.3 4.3 _6.7 12.5 14.9 15.1 14.3 11.3 _8.3 4.5 1.4
1830_--0.2 2.2 7.7 _8.9 12.0 12.7 16.2 13.7 11.9 10.4 6.9 1.8
1831__ 1.6 4.8 7.2 _9.2 11.5 15.4 16.7 16.9 13.7 12.7 5.6 5.8
1832__ 3.1 3.4 5.8 _8.6 10.9 15.2 15.9 15.4 13.6 10.7 5.9 5.2
1833__ 1.2 5.6 3.9 _7.7 15.1 14.6 15.8 14.3 12.1 10.1 6.6 6.9
1834__ 7.1 5.6 7.1 _7.7 13.0 15.4 16.9 16.2 13.8 10.6 6.7 5.6
1835__ 2.9 5.7 5.8 _8.6 11.3 15.0 16.4 16.9 13.4 _8.9 6.6 3.1
1836__ 3.7 3.5 5.8 _7.2 11.1 15.3 15.4 14.6 11.7 _8.6 5.3 4.1
1837__ 2.7 4.7 2.3 _4.7 _9.9 15.5 16.9 15.7 12.5 10.5 5.2 5.3
1838_--1.5 0.4 4.9 _6.1 10.5 14.4 15.6 15.1 12.7 _9.8 4.6 4.0
1839__ 2.8 4.1 4.2 _6.4 10.2 14.3 14.9 14.6 12.4 _9.3 7.3 3.7
1840__ 4.1 3.6 3.8 _9.7 11.4 14.1 13.8 15.9 11.1 _7.5 5.8 1.3
______________________________________________________________________________________

So, a quick analysis of the above ...

Cold winter months (2.0 or lower) are marked in bold. This includes March 1785 (you can find some info on that year in the technical thread as we just locked horns with daily records set in 1785 on 28 Feb and 1 March. The year ended up quite warm and dry for the early summer and cool and wet later. Anyway, with these colder months marked, it's easy to see visually that the Dalton got progressively colder then began to see a return to milder winters on average (although Jan 1838 was markedly cold). I also drew attention to Nov 1782 which was the coldest November in the 360 years of records.

Months marked in red are notably warm months (above 5.5 Jan, 6.0 Feb, 7.5 Mar, 10 Apr, 13 May, 16 Jun, 17.8 Jul, 17.2 Aug, 14.5 Sep, 11.5 Oct, 7.5 Nov or 6.0 Dec). There were a few of these even in the Dalton, perhaps not as many as at random. May 1833 is still the warmest May on record. The summer of 1826 was one of the warmest. The winter of 1833-34 is one of the mildest.

Going to post this now and continue to edit in warm months (red type will appear) and space the columns a bit more evenly, but you can already see the cold nature of the Dalton, in particular 1814 to 1831 stands out. In those 19 winters, 10 had at least one cold month (< 2.0) and two others had three colder than average months.

Note also how cold the summer of 1816 was, and unusual cold weather in May and October of 1817. These were probably the additional effects of the volcanic dust veil from Tamboro.

The general take-away here is that a long downturn in solar activity slowly began to leave an imprint on temperatures (in Britain and presumably also in Ireland) with the coldest winters in particular coming in the period 1814 to 1831 when the majority of winters had at least one cold month (< 2.0).

I had done lots of pre-snow shots with the drone in the hopes of getting lots of comparasment shots but between the weather and life I couldn't get any of the latter bar this one.
Very short clip of March 1st and March 4th at Sandyford/M50

With thanks to all you clever people in this forum that gave me the confidence to prepare and expect this event.

Now that it's almost all over I just want to say thank you to everyone here over the past few days.

I didn't contribute much myself but it was great to see people's reactions and live updates from their areas. I was like a child especially Thursday night when it was all about to kick off.

So thanks for the memories.

Rodin wrote: »

Not a bit of snow where I am.
Have you not been listening?

I heard you loud and clear. You just listen to yourself and dont bother reading the responses though.

You werent affected and think they should have predicted the situation on a more pin point basis for your small town instead of issuing a more widespread warning to preserve life.

You expect teachers (just another worker) to clear the driveways etc of schools presumably when they clear their own driveways.

Yeah neither is an acceptable suggestion other than in your own head.

---

Well done Kermit, MT, Gaoth, et al for the heads up. A lot of people were well prepared. The thread has lots of lovely photos too.

The mods may now retire to a dark room.

Well there's been chatter about the impending SW event for about a month, I think it was in the back of long range forecasters' minds since that started up. Don't know if they had any other solid indications.

The first tell-tale synoptics would have been about mid-February when the large high formed north of Alaska and started retrograde motion but you may recall also we were chatting about that 1070 mb high in northern Siberia about early February IIRC and what that might mean. Maybe they had information about its future too, which I think was mostly a split followed by part of it moving northwest and part southeast, there wasn't much left of it by the time that Alaskan high showed up.

Like the snow, the posting rate on the boards snow threads has started to melt away. But between the technical thread and the current and archived discussion threads there are over 23,600 posts. Looks like some posters never got to bed when the snow got going last Wednesday night. Here's the hourly posting rate since the first thread started a fortnight ago:

no ....

oh okay.