Grand National 2018

RivetingRoger

if the ground comes up soft-ish you would have to think Bellshill has a huge chance
Hugely impressive yesterday, just found it that little bit too heavy eventually
Best horse in the race by a distance

Raz de Meree for value if the ground is heavy

redzerdrog

RivetingRoger wrote: »

if the ground comes up soft-ish you would have to think Bellshill has a huge chance
Hugely impressive yesterday, just found it that little bit too heavy eventually
Best horse in the race by a distance

Raz de Meree for value if the ground is heavy

Surely Bellhill won't run so soon after yesterdays slog

faoile@n

RivetingRoger wrote: »

if the ground comes up soft-ish you would have to think Bellshill has a huge chance
Hugely impressive yesterday, just found it that little bit too heavy eventually
Best horse in the race by a distance

Raz de Meree for value if the ground is heavy

If for some bizarre reason Bellshill runs he has zero chance.

He had a very hard race yesterday and didn't stay the Irish national anyways let alone the extra distance in Aintree.

EICVD

faoile@n wrote: »

If for some bizarre reason Bellshill runs he has zero chance.

He had a very hard race yesterday and didn't stay the Irish national anyways let alone the extra distance in Aintree.

I agree, if Bellshill runs again this season he may go for the Punchestown Gold Cup, just has to hack around & pick up some prize money.

Nulty

Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles are the two I'd take on soft ground. I've backed Baie Des Isles at 66/1. She's a strong stayer and Ross O' Sullivan can prepare one. It's sure that Katie will ride and the horse is maturing. 6th in an Irish National, 5th in a Welsh National. She was never stopping suring any of those. Aintree has clearly been the plan all year.

amadain

WHO WINS ?

supremenovice

How about the ever-forgivable Buywise?
I've lost my fair share of euro on him over the past few years but he's racing off 145 now and finished 12th off 151 in 2016. Older horses go well here and the softer the better. Has an each-way squeak I reckon, especially if theres a bookie offering 6 places on the day.

Rezident

Another reason not to mainly use a defensive style like Juve: when you do concede an early goal your whole gameplan goes out the window in the third minute. Juve look good when they're a goal up but they don't look good chasing the game and having to score goals.

d22ontour

Rezident wrote: »

Another reason not to mainly use a defensive style like Juve: when you do concede an early goal your whole gameplan goes out the window in the third minute. Juve look good when they're a goal up but they don't look good chasing the game and having to score goals.

I doubt any of their players would be any use at Aintree either. :pac::pac::pac:

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Slattsy

When are final decs out?

Gavin "shels"

Slattsy wrote: »

When are final decs out?

"Five-day confirmations April 9, final declarations 10am April 12"

danganabu

supremenovice wrote: »

How about the ever-forgivable Buywise?
I've lost my fair share of euro on him over the past few years but he's racing off 145 now and finished 12th off 151 in 2016. Older horses go well here and the softer the better. Has an each-way squeak I reckon, especially if theres a bookie offering 6 places on the day.

Its interesting that you say this, I am very much a trends and stats man and would have always had that as a starting point but I think the complexiomn of the race has changed in the past few years and looking at the last three years of the 12 placed horses only 2 were older than 10 and one of those was a horse that had previously placed in the race.

FatRat

Had a proper look at this race yesterday and I'm pretty sure Gas Line Boy at 33/1 is the bet of the race.

danganabu

FatRat wrote: »

Had a proper look at this race yesterday and I'm pretty sure Gas Line Boy at 33/1 is the bet of the race.

Havent seen or heard anything from the trainer but I suspect he will run in the Topham

Slattsy

I'm pretty sure I have the winner. But I'm not telling anyone. Because I'm not sure he'll run ffs.

pugw

Nulty wrote: »

Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles are the two I'd take on soft ground. I've backed Baie Des Isles at 66/1. She's a strong stayer and Ross O' Sullivan can prepare one. It's sure that Katie will ride and the horse is maturing. 6th in an Irish National, 5th in a Welsh National. She was never stopping suring any of those. Aintree has clearly been the plan all year.

Into 40/1 now

FatRat

danganabu wrote: »

Havent seen or heard anything from the trainer but I suspect he will run in the Topham

Why? He placed in this last year, not really any reason to not run again this year. Especially with the weight he is carrying

handsfree2

FatRat wrote: »

Had a proper look at this race yesterday and I'm pretty sure Gas Line Boy at 33/1 is the bet of the race.

He definitely has to be on the shortlist. He seems to be going better than ever.

Gavin "shels"

Nulty wrote: »

Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles are the two I'd take on soft ground. I've backed Baie Des Isles at 66/1. She's a strong stayer and Ross O' Sullivan can prepare one. It's sure that Katie will ride and the horse is maturing. 6th in an Irish National, 5th in a Welsh National. She was never stopping suring any of those. Aintree has clearly been the plan all year.

Ruby Walsh has tipped up Baie Des Iles so expect them odds to be gone.

Gavin "shels"

Good trends here: https://www.grandnational.org.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-betting-trends/

The ones which have a 78% strike right -

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
– 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS

danganabu

Gavin shels wrote: »

Good trends here: https://www.grandnational.org.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-betting-trends/

The ones which have a 78% strike right -

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
– 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS

Love my trends and stats but the GN is a completly different race now than it was 25 years ago

Gavin "shels"

I'll be keeping faith with Minella Rocco and then one Trendy horse

danganabu

Gavin shels wrote: »

I'll be keeping faith with Minella Rocco and then one Trendy horse

I have taken one from the trends, one from the classier types and one that I think has plenty in hand and has been laid out, having said that with my record in this race, last year excluded, I will be happy to still have one standing after the first

Bangor Billy

danganabu wrote: »

Gavin shels wrote: »

Good trends here: https://www.grandnational.org.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-betting-trends/

The ones which have a 78% strike right -

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
– 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS

Love my trends and stats but the GN is a completly different race now than it was 25 years ago

Absolutely right. Trends from 27 years ago are a complete waste of time. Even ten years is pushing it.

Francie Barrett

Very difficult to be taking on anything antepost just yet with the way the weather is. Latest forecasts seem to have conditions as drying up, but quite a lot could happen between now and next Saturday. The only one that I am tempted by is The Young Master which looks absolutely chucked in at a basement weight and will easily get around should it run.

madmoose

Been dry and sunny here the last 2 days, hopefully carries on. Buv, Tent and Supersundae look on course for the Aintree Hirdle

Gavin "shels"

danganabu wrote: »

I have taken one from the trends, one from the classier types and one that I think has plenty in hand and has been laid out, having said that with my record in this race, last year excluded, I will be happy to still have one standing after the first

Don't be shy... what 3 are you on? :pac:

Gavin "shels"

https://www.grandnational.org.uk/grand-national-trends.php

Aintree Grand National Trends (15 Year)
14/15 – Had won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago
13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/15 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/15 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/15 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/15 – Experienced the National fences
5/15 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 28/1

The Mig

Trends my arse. Throw 5 darts and back the 5 each way