Grand National 2018

danganabu

Gavin shels wrote: »

Don't be shy... what 3 are you on? :pac:

Trends - Wounded Warrior
Class - Anabale Flyer
Plot - Pleasent Company

If you dont like money please follow

Having a slow day at work so have looked at the race again and now that he looks like sneaking in at the bottom, have had a cut at Milansbar and Vieux Lion Rouge as well. Now have to email my bookies and ask them to restrict me from the GN, i'll end up with half hte field and still be lucky to bag a place!

Billgirlylegs

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Very difficult to be taking on anything antepost just yet with the way the weather is. Latest forecasts seem to have conditions as drying up, but quite a lot could happen between now and next Saturday. The only one that I am tempted by is The Young Master which looks absolutely chucked in at a basement weight and will easily get around should it run.

The Druid's Nephew (twice), The Young Master (once) from the same stable.
Always thrown in/in form / goes on the ground / good on trends/jockey.
All fallers.
The Young Master managed to put Sam Waley Cohen on the ground last year.

Why, Why, Why will it be different this time?

Francie Barrett

Billgirlylegs wrote: »

The Druid's Nephew (twice), The Young Master (once) from the same stable.
Always thrown in/in form / goes on the ground / good on trends/jockey.
All fallers.
The Young Master managed to put Sam Waley Cohen on the ground last year.

Why, Why, Why will it be different this time?

It's still only 9, has proven ability, will like soft ground, is carrying no weight at all, and is 80/1 will William Hill. I was a little encouraged that it actually got around in the Beecher last year and with a 13lb reduction in the weight since then, I think it has a good outside chance.

Slattsy

My big fancy for the GN died under unusual circumstances, A Genie In Abottle.

EICVD

amadain wrote: »

WHO WINS ?

Tiger Roll or Ucello Conti or Road to riches. Heading to see two of those names in the morning

Earendil

I've a feeling he won't run, but if the ground stays soft, 100/1 for Acapella Bourgeois on B365 is decent.

Slattsy

What's the ground looking like anyway?

Gavin "shels"

https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-2018-stats-trends-pointers/#comments

Iv used these this year Josh.

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS EARLY LOOK

Rather than go back 20 years im going to start with the last
10 years and concentrate more on the last 5 years when the course was modified,fences altered and the distance shortened.

10/10 GB 1,Irish 6 and French bred 3
10/10 8-11 year old
10/10 rated 137-160
10/10 10st3 – 11st9
10/10 Highest class win Class 2
10/10 won at 3m +
10/10 top 3 finish in last 3 runs
9/10 top 8 finish
9/10 21 – 60 days LTO

That will reduce the field to a more handier number and will take out notable runners such as Minella Rocco,Blacklion,
Total recall,Gas line boy,Raz de maree and Bless the wings.

5 YEAR TRENDS
5/5 Class 1 Chase top 3 at 27f +
5/5 5/5 at least 3 season runs
5/5 between 10 – 24 chase runs
5/5 at least 7 3m+ chase/hurdles runs
5/5 a Racing post rating of 171 +
4/5 under 11st

11ST Under

Since 2013 44 carried 11st+ with only 17
finishing,4 placing and 1 winner Many Clouds.

CI Chase TOP 3 over 27f+

2017 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 6th 7th had
2016 1st 3rd 5th had
2015 first 6 had
2014 1st to 8th had minus 3rd
2013 first 4 had

I am left with three horses that fit the winning
trends for the past 5 years.

TIGER ROLL
MILANSBAR
VINTAGE CLOUDS (would need 12 to drop out)

other mentions just failing could run into a place

FINAL NUDGE – ran well in Welsh national
ANIBALE FLY – asked to go further than 3m on 3 occasions
2nd in GR1,Won 96 grand hcap and 3rd in Gold cup and
now 9lb well in as weights came out before Gold cup run.

However should Minella Rocco come out these could
change again also ground coming up very soft or
heavy could again change my selections even though
these fit all recent winners.

Robert Bland

Gavin "shels"

Slattsy wrote: »

What's the ground looking like anyway?

I seen Soft somewhere but weather is hit and miss for the weekend.

madmoose

The weather has been crazy here the last few days, we had heavy rain on saturday but today it feels as hot as madrid in Liverpool.

handsfree2

gas line boy and regal encore for me

theaceofspies

Bookies love an angle in which to screw punters. Just read this:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/grand-national-festival/baie-des-iles-slashed-to-16-1-to-make-grand-national-history-for-kate-walsh/326849

They don't even have to do the research - Kevin Blake does an At The Races Blog on this horse and bingo.

Probably the most open Grand National in living memory but will be shocked if the above horse wins.

Gavin "shels"

Why do you think they hire such people

theaceofspies

Gavin shels wrote: »

Why do you think they hire such people

Eeeeeaaaaasy money.:cool:

Nulty

theaceofspies wrote: »

Bookies love an angle in which to screw punters.  Just read this:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/grand-national-festival/baie-des-iles-slashed-to-16-1-to-make-grand-national-history-for-kate-walsh/326849

They don't even have to do the research - Kevin Blake does an At The Races Blog on this horse and bingo.

Probably the most open Grand National in living memory but will be shocked if the above horse wins.

Why would you be shocked

supremenovice

I was on Boyles website and they have a Virtual Grand National every 10mins.
With commentary and all. :eek:
Thats my entertainment for the eveining!

Whiplash85

Nulty wrote: »

Why would you be shocked

Because he read someone else was shocked. It formed his opinion. Totally oblivious to the fact that the mare finished third in a grand national trial to Folsom Blue and Isleofhopeanddreams. The form of which looked very strong on their next run. Also finished 5th in Welsh national as a five year old behind none other than Native River. On the evidence of those alone she has to have a chance of making the frame.

kiers47

The mare would have to have a decent chance in fairness. However the price is now well and truly gone. And if you aren't already on then there is little point going in at 16 or 20/1 as there is absolutely no juice whatsoever in that.

If you missed the wedding don't go to the funeral

RivetingRoger

Alpha Des Obeaux
Gas line boy
Raz de Meree ew
Ucello Conti

my 4

longshotvalue

Tap's foot waiting for 365 to announce offer of free Place bets.. Dont want to put up anything until i see if that offer is on this year.

abarkie

aidankkk wrote: »

Tap's foot waiting for 365 to announce offer of free Place bets.. Dont want to put up anything until i see if that offer is on this year.

Don't be shy :-)

Mr321

I see Blake and Kennedy are arseing their way in nicely to ITV Racing, there will soon be more presenters on that show then there will horses running in the National.

RivetingRoger

Blake is a welcome addition to any show, best tipster out there
Kennedy is a clown

zimmermania

I am having a bit more than usual on this year on the National because i believe a real Aintree horse offers a bit more value than horses who do not have form over the course.

Blaklion who was 4th last year and would appear to have been prepared with the race in mind this year,won here in december,was 3rd to Native River in 2016 and was 4th to Thistlcrack over hurdles in 2015.

Not a huge price at 12/1 6 places but given reasonable luck can be there at the finish.Should perhaps have been a bit more patiently ridden last year and looks the best option for me.

I will have a small saver (€5 ew at 33/1) on the inconsistent but talented Regal Encore who ran well enough in the race last year.

I know Tony Martin thinks Anibale Fly will run well but is a bit skinny and lacks course form.

FatRat

Bet365 half your stake back on the national offer is back

longshotvalue

FatRat wrote: »

Bet365 half your stake back on the national offer is back

Great, my biggest bets of the year. Youd have to be going for the max with that offer

Boots234

I'm running a sweepstake at work for this, what time today will the official declaration of the horses that are running be?

Slattsy

It's a ****ing great offer!

Tend to back a few extra horses than usual in it though because of the offer, so one for the wife and one for the daughter.

abarkie

aidankkk wrote: »

FatRat wrote: »

Bet365 half your stake back on the national offer is back

Great, my biggest bets of the year. Youd have to be going for the max with that offer

Come on Aidan we are all waiting with baited breath

posturingpat

Valseur lido is 66/1 on Skybet 6 places nrnb, has the back class, has a nice mark, has a good jockey that'll be riding at his natural weight so will be no dead weight on the horses back, been running over too short of late to help sharpen his jumping and showed he's still got ability at Leopardstown this winter.

It's the Grand National so anything can happen but i think he's great value here.