Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Grand National 2018

2456

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Good trends here: https://www.grandnational.org.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-betting-trends/

    The ones which have a 78% strike right -

    Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
    – 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
    · 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
    · 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
    · 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
    · 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
    · 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
    · 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
    · 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
    · 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Good trends here: https://www.grandnational.org.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-betting-trends/

    The ones which have a 78% strike right -

    Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
    – 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
    · 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
    · 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
    · 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
    · 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
    · 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
    · 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
    · 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
    · 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS

    Love my trends and stats but the GN is a completly different race now than it was 25 years ago


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    I'll be keeping faith with Minella Rocco and then one Trendy horse :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    I'll be keeping faith with Minella Rocco and then one Trendy horse :D

    I have taken one from the trends, one from the classier types and one that I think has plenty in hand and has been laid out, having said that with my record in this race, last year excluded, I will be happy to still have one standing after the first :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭Bangor Billy


    danganabu wrote: »
    Good trends here: https://www.grandnational.org.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-betting-trends/

    The ones which have a 78% strike right -

    Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
    – 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
    · 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
    · 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
    · 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
    · 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
    · 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
    · 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
    · 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
    · 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS

    Love my trends and stats but the GN is a completly different race now than it was 25 years ago
    Absolutely right. Trends from 27 years ago are a complete waste of time. Even ten years is pushing it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,835 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Very difficult to be taking on anything antepost just yet with the way the weather is. Latest forecasts seem to have conditions as drying up, but quite a lot could happen between now and next Saturday. The only one that I am tempted by is The Young Master which looks absolutely chucked in at a basement weight and will easily get around should it run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Been dry and sunny here the last 2 days, hopefully carries on. Buv, Tent and Supersundae look on course for the Aintree Hirdle


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    danganabu wrote: »
    I have taken one from the trends, one from the classier types and one that I think has plenty in hand and has been laid out, having said that with my record in this race, last year excluded, I will be happy to still have one standing after the first :D

    Don't be shy... what 3 are you on? :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    https://www.grandnational.org.uk/grand-national-trends.php

    Aintree Grand National Trends (15 Year)
    14/15 – Had won over at least 3m previously
    13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
    13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago
    13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher
    9/15 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
    8/15 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
    8/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
    6/15 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
    7/15 – Experienced the National fences
    5/15 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
    5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
    3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
    3/15 – Won their last race
    2/15 – Won by the McCain yard
    The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 28/1


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Trends my arse. Throw 5 darts and back the 5 each way


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Don't be shy... what 3 are you on? :pac:

    Trends - Wounded Warrior
    Class - Anabale Flyer
    Plot - Pleasent Company

    If you dont like money please follow :D

    Having a slow day at work so have looked at the race again and now that he looks like sneaking in at the bottom, have had a cut at Milansbar and Vieux Lion Rouge as well. Now have to email my bookies and ask them to restrict me from the GN, i'll end up with half hte field and still be lucky to bag a place!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 494 ✭✭Billgirlylegs


    Very difficult to be taking on anything antepost just yet with the way the weather is. Latest forecasts seem to have conditions as drying up, but quite a lot could happen between now and next Saturday. The only one that I am tempted by is The Young Master which looks absolutely chucked in at a basement weight and will easily get around should it run.

    The Druid's Nephew (twice), The Young Master (once) from the same stable.
    Always thrown in/in form / goes on the ground / good on trends/jockey.
    All fallers.
    The Young Master managed to put Sam Waley Cohen on the ground last year.

    Why, Why, Why will it be different this time?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,835 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    The Druid's Nephew (twice), The Young Master (once) from the same stable.
    Always thrown in/in form / goes on the ground / good on trends/jockey.
    All fallers.
    The Young Master managed to put Sam Waley Cohen on the ground last year.

    Why, Why, Why will it be different this time?
    It's still only 9, has proven ability, will like soft ground, is carrying no weight at all, and is 80/1 will William Hill. I was a little encouraged that it actually got around in the Beecher last year and with a 13lb reduction in the weight since then, I think it has a good outside chance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    My big fancy for the GN died under unusual circumstances, A Genie In Abottle.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,006 ✭✭✭EICVD


    amadain wrote: »
    WHO WINS ?

    Tiger Roll or Ucello Conti or Road to riches. Heading to see two of those names in the morning


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    I've a feeling he won't run, but if the ground stays soft, 100/1 for Acapella Bourgeois on B365 is decent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    What's the ground looking like anyway?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/04/04/grand-national-2018-stats-trends-pointers/#comments
    Iv used these this year Josh.

    AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS EARLY LOOK

    Rather than go back 20 years im going to start with the last
    10 years and concentrate more on the last 5 years when the course was modified,fences altered and the distance shortened.

    10/10 GB 1,Irish 6 and French bred 3
    10/10 8-11 year old
    10/10 rated 137-160
    10/10 10st3 – 11st9
    10/10 Highest class win Class 2
    10/10 won at 3m +
    10/10 top 3 finish in last 3 runs
    9/10 top 8 finish
    9/10 21 – 60 days LTO

    That will reduce the field to a more handier number and will take out notable runners such as Minella Rocco,Blacklion,
    Total recall,Gas line boy,Raz de maree and Bless the wings.

    5 YEAR TRENDS
    5/5 Class 1 Chase top 3 at 27f +
    5/5 5/5 at least 3 season runs
    5/5 between 10 – 24 chase runs
    5/5 at least 7 3m+ chase/hurdles runs
    5/5 a Racing post rating of 171 +
    4/5 under 11st

    11ST Under

    Since 2013 44 carried 11st+ with only 17
    finishing,4 placing and 1 winner Many Clouds.

    CI Chase TOP 3 over 27f+

    2017 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 6th 7th had
    2016 1st 3rd 5th had
    2015 first 6 had
    2014 1st to 8th had minus 3rd
    2013 first 4 had

    I am left with three horses that fit the winning
    trends for the past 5 years.

    TIGER ROLL
    MILANSBAR
    VINTAGE CLOUDS (would need 12 to drop out)

    other mentions just failing could run into a place

    FINAL NUDGE – ran well in Welsh national
    ANIBALE FLY – asked to go further than 3m on 3 occasions
    2nd in GR1,Won 96 grand hcap and 3rd in Gold cup and
    now 9lb well in as weights came out before Gold cup run.

    However should Minella Rocco come out these could
    change again also ground coming up very soft or
    heavy could again change my selections even though
    these fit all recent winners.

    Robert Bland


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Slattsy wrote: »
    What's the ground looking like anyway?

    I seen Soft somewhere but weather is hit and miss for the weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    The weather has been crazy here the last few days, we had heavy rain on saturday but today it feels as hot as madrid in Liverpool.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭handsfree2


    gas line boy and regal encore for me


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 577 ✭✭✭theaceofspies


    Bookies love an angle in which to screw punters. Just read this:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/grand-national-festival/baie-des-iles-slashed-to-16-1-to-make-grand-national-history-for-kate-walsh/326849

    They don't even have to do the research - Kevin Blake does an At The Races Blog on this horse and bingo.

    Probably the most open Grand National in living memory but will be shocked if the above horse wins.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Why do you think they hire such people :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 577 ✭✭✭theaceofspies


    Why do you think they hire such people :D

    Eeeeeaaaaasy money.:cool:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Bookies love an angle in which to screw punters.  Just read this:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/grand-national-festival/baie-des-iles-slashed-to-16-1-to-make-grand-national-history-for-kate-walsh/326849

    They don't even have to do the research - Kevin Blake does an At The Races Blog on this horse and bingo.

    Probably the most open Grand National in living memory but will be shocked if the above horse wins.
    Why would you be shocked


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    I was on Boyles website and they have a Virtual Grand National every 10mins.
    With commentary and all. :eek:
    Thats my entertainment for the eveining!


  • Registered Users Posts: 738 ✭✭✭Whiplash85


    Nulty wrote: »
    Why would you be shocked

    Because he read someone else was shocked. It formed his opinion. Totally oblivious to the fact that the mare finished third in a grand national trial to Folsom Blue and Isleofhopeanddreams. The form of which looked very strong on their next run. Also finished 5th in Welsh national as a five year old behind none other than Native River. On the evidence of those alone she has to have a chance of making the frame.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    The mare would have to have a decent chance in fairness. However the price is now well and truly gone. And if you aren't already on then there is little point going in at 16 or 20/1 as there is absolutely no juice whatsoever in that.

    If you missed the wedding don't go to the funeral ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Alpha Des Obeaux
    Gas line boy
    Raz de Meree ew
    Ucello Conti

    my 4


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Tap's foot waiting for 365 to announce offer of free Place bets.. Dont want to put up anything until i see if that offer is on this year.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭abarkie


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Tap's foot waiting for 365 to announce offer of free Place bets.. Dont want to put up anything until i see if that offer is on this year.

    Don't be shy :-)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 679 ✭✭✭Mr321


    I see Blake and Kennedy are arseing their way in nicely to ITV Racing, there will soon be more presenters on that show then there will horses running in the National.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Blake is a welcome addition to any show, best tipster out there
    Kennedy is a clown


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,731 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    I am having a bit more than usual on this year on the National because i believe a real Aintree horse offers a bit more value than horses who do not have form over the course.

    Blaklion who was 4th last year and would appear to have been prepared with the race in mind this year,won here in december,was 3rd to Native River in 2016 and was 4th to Thistlcrack over hurdles in 2015.

    Not a huge price at 12/1 6 places but given reasonable luck can be there at the finish.Should perhaps have been a bit more patiently ridden last year and looks the best option for me.

    I will have a small saver (€5 ew at 33/1) on the inconsistent but talented Regal Encore who ran well enough in the race last year.

    I know Tony Martin thinks Anibale Fly will run well but is a bit skinny and lacks course form.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,194 ✭✭✭FatRat


    Bet365 half your stake back on the national offer is back :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    FatRat wrote: »
    Bet365 half your stake back on the national offer is back :D

    Great, my biggest bets of the year. Youd have to be going for the max with that offer


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,439 ✭✭✭Boots234


    I'm running a sweepstake at work for this, what time today will the official declaration of the horses that are running be?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    It's a ****ing great offer!

    Tend to back a few extra horses than usual in it though because of the offer, so one for the wife and one for the daughter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭abarkie


    aidankkk wrote: »
    FatRat wrote: »
    Bet365 half your stake back on the national offer is back :D

    Great, my biggest bets of the year. Youd have to be going for the max with that offer

    Come on Aidan we are all waiting with baited breath


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Valseur lido is 66/1 on Skybet 6 places nrnb, has the back class, has a nice mark, has a good jockey that'll be riding at his natural weight so will be no dead weight on the horses back, been running over too short of late to help sharpen his jumping and showed he's still got ability at Leopardstown this winter.

    It's the Grand National so anything can happen but i think he's great value here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭chancer007


    Valseur might be carrying too much weight
    his handicap mark here in 153, 158 in UK


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    chancer007 wrote: »
    Valseur might be carrying too much weight
    his handicap mark here in 153, 158 in UK

    Ah i wouldn't pay much heed to current Irish rating, he's 153 after 2 races over too short. Prior to that i think he was 158 here so one could argue pretty fairly treated knowing the hike we sometimes get.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    abarkie wrote: »
    Come on Aidan we are all waiting with baited breath

    Only horse I've picked at all so far is houblon des . Price has gone with me waiting or this offer . I don't normally really look until Friday evening . Still a lottery , just helped with this offer .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭chancer007


    have done baie des iles (66), Seeuadmidnight (16) carlingford (50) Maggio (100) all ew
    good luck to everyone with their selections


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    chancer007 wrote: »
    have done baie des iles (66), Seeuadmidnight (16) carlingford (50) Maggio (100) all ew
    good luck to everyone with their selections

    Bai des isles was an early fancy of mine but said i'd sit tight until closer to the time. Can't back her now at the prices. Best of luck at 66/1 though should give you a great hand.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭chancer007


    thanks pat
    think its a really ordinary race this year..shud b 14/1 the field...cheltenham will surely have left a mark on anibale fly..if seeuatmidnight had a better prep wud fancy him more
    g'luck with valseur,good jumper...its an open year..cant wait for it..


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Heading over in the morning. Cant wait.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Valseur lido is 66/1 on Skybet 6 places nrnb, has the back class, has a nice mark, has a good jockey that'll be riding at his natural weight so will be no dead weight on the horses back, been running over too short of late to help sharpen his jumping and showed he's still got ability at Leopardstown this winter.

    It's the Grand National so anything can happen but i think he's great value here.

    Cant see it myself. Similar to Silviniaco Conti, I just don't see a horse like VL being a "national horse"
    Can see it being pulled up half way through.

    Watch it win now :)

    Blessthewings at 50/1 is interesting
    Hot and cold horse as we know, but can be very good over these kinda obstacles
    50/1 as opposed to Tiger Roll's 10/1 seems kinda mad to me


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Valseur lido is 66/1 on Skybet 6 places nrnb, has the back class, has a nice mark, has a good jockey that'll be riding at his natural weight so will be no dead weight on the horses back, been running over too short of late to help sharpen his jumping and showed he's still got ability at Leopardstown this winter.

    It's the Grand National so anything can happen but i think he's great value here.

    Had him down as a non stayer


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    I don't see that Bet365 offer anywhere, not even on their site. Link?


  • Advertisement
Advertisement