Grand National 2018

chancer007

Valseur might be carrying too much weight
his handicap mark here in 153, 158 in UK

posturingpat

chancer007 wrote: »

Valseur might be carrying too much weight
his handicap mark here in 153, 158 in UK

Ah i wouldn't pay much heed to current Irish rating, he's 153 after 2 races over too short. Prior to that i think he was 158 here so one could argue pretty fairly treated knowing the hike we sometimes get.

longshotvalue

abarkie wrote: »

Come on Aidan we are all waiting with baited breath

Only horse I've picked at all so far is houblon des . Price has gone with me waiting or this offer . I don't normally really look until Friday evening . Still a lottery , just helped with this offer .

chancer007

have done baie des iles (66), Seeuadmidnight (16) carlingford (50) Maggio (100) all ew
good luck to everyone with their selections

posturingpat

chancer007 wrote: »

have done baie des iles (66), Seeuadmidnight (16) carlingford (50) Maggio (100) all ew
good luck to everyone with their selections

Bai des isles was an early fancy of mine but said i'd sit tight until closer to the time. Can't back her now at the prices. Best of luck at 66/1 though should give you a great hand.

chancer007

thanks pat
think its a really ordinary race this year..shud b 14/1 the field...cheltenham will surely have left a mark on anibale fly..if seeuatmidnight had a better prep wud fancy him more
g'luck with valseur,good jumper...its an open year..cant wait for it..

The Mig

Heading over in the morning. Cant wait.

RivetingRoger

posturingpat wrote: »

Valseur lido is 66/1 on Skybet 6 places nrnb, has the back class, has a nice mark, has a good jockey that'll be riding at his natural weight so will be no dead weight on the horses back, been running over too short of late to help sharpen his jumping and showed he's still got ability at Leopardstown this winter.

It's the Grand National so anything can happen but i think he's great value here.

Cant see it myself. Similar to Silviniaco Conti, I just don't see a horse like VL being a "national horse"
Can see it being pulled up half way through.

Watch it win now

Blessthewings at 50/1 is interesting
Hot and cold horse as we know, but can be very good over these kinda obstacles
50/1 as opposed to Tiger Roll's 10/1 seems kinda mad to me

BumperD

posturingpat wrote: »

Valseur lido is 66/1 on Skybet 6 places nrnb, has the back class, has a nice mark, has a good jockey that'll be riding at his natural weight so will be no dead weight on the horses back, been running over too short of late to help sharpen his jumping and showed he's still got ability at Leopardstown this winter.

It's the Grand National so anything can happen but i think he's great value here.

Had him down as a non stayer

Nulty

I don't see that Bet365 offer anywhere, not even on their site. Link?

kiers47

Nulty wrote: »

I don't see that Bet365 offer anywhere, not even on their site. Link?

https://twitter.com/bet365/status/984337874798694405?s=19

shmeee

Apples Shakira
Aintree 14:20
w/o We Have A Dream
@ evens
Boyles

This looks like cracking value today to bump up the kitty for the few days ahead.

Nulty

If I was asked for a tip now, I think I'd have to go with Anibale Fly. I almost never back or tip a favourite but this fella looks so well suited to the race and is officially 9lbs well in. That is a huge advantage.

byronbay2

Final Decs are in for the Grand National. Gold Present the only one taken out, allowing Road To Riches to sneak in right at the bottom of the weights! Thunder and Roses now 1st reserve.

supremenovice

Has the No 40 horse ever won the Grand National?

danganabu

chancer007 wrote: »

.cheltenham will surely have left a mark on anibale fly

Don't think so to be honest, he wasnt given anywhere near the same ride as the front two and was nursed around............and as I type this Might Bite wins the big one in Aintree, Anibale Fly is over a stone well in imo never mind the 9lbs, if he takes to the fences and has a bit of luck in running I could see him winning very snugly.

average_runner

For the last 20 years I have used a formula that I came up with. I would end up with 4 horses usually and had 13 winners and 20 places I say over the 4 years!

kiers47

average_runner wrote: »

For the last 20 years I have used a formula that I came up with. I would end up with 4 horses usually and had 13 winners and 20 places I say over the 4 years!

The most EPIC aftertime the forum has ever seen!
13 winners of the last 20 nationals.

Close down the forum. We have reached the peak!!

The Mig

Can you PM the formula thanks xx

average_runner

The Mig wrote: »

Can you PM the formula thanks xx

I will put it up here:

1) Horse that jumps well, mainly close the front to rule out the chance of getting brought down
2)Horse under 11 in the weights
3)Proven stamina
4)Horse that didnt run in that cheltenham festival.


After this you be left with 6- 8 horses, then if the horse likes the ground or the course and usually i wouldn't take anything under 10/1 as not much of a gain in a e/w bet there.

Leave it or take it.

But to me, the grand national is a great sporting event and I love it.

Note Formula does not work for the Irish National, 1 winner in 20 years!!

RivetingRoger

the irish national is barely a "national" atall more like a big grade 3 chase !

danganabu

average_runner wrote: »

I will put it up here:

1) Horse that jumps well, mainly close the front to rule out the chance of getting brought down
2)Horse under 11 in the weights
3)Proven stamina
4)Horse that didnt run in that cheltenham festival.


After this you be left with 6- 8 horses, then if the horse likes the ground or the course and usually i wouldn't take anything under 10/1 as not much of a gain in a e/w bet there.

Leave it or take it.

But to me, the grand national is a great sporting event and I love it.

Note Formula does not work for the Irish National, 1 winner in 20 years!!

Of the last 20 winners there have only been 10 winners that carried less than 11st and were bigger than 10/1 so without even applying you other 4 filters you have been badly exposed, good lad!!

Town Man

Sorry for posting in here. Group of us heading over Friday night and we have an extra ticket as one lad has pulled out. It is for the West Tip Stand. Selling at cost price or as close as possible to it. pm if interested

average_runner

danganabu wrote: »

Of the last 20 winners there have only been 10 winners that carried less than 11st and were bigger than 10/1 so without even applying you other 4 filters you have been badly exposed, good lad!!

I said usually about the odds, there was 2 exceptions to that, Earth Summit, Comply or die, Papillon and BobbyJo were not @ 10/1 when i backed them. I usually backed them in the morning before the odds come in.

Here is the list of my winners

1) One for Arthur
2)Pineau De Re
3)Ballabriggs
4)Comply or Die
5)Silver Birch
6)Amberliegh House
7)Bindaree
8) Red Marauder also had 2nd place, wished it finished in reverse.
9)Papillon
10)BobbyJo
11)Earth Summit
12)Numbersixvalvderde


So it was 12 and not 13 my mistake.


Sorry forgot my first winner Rough Quest

kiers47

For anyone who cares. I have also been betting for 20 years. I have never backed the winner of the national. Say a little prayer for me in this time of need!!
More value losers than you could shake a stick at.

kiers47

average_runner wrote: »

I said usually about the odds, there was 2 exceptions to that, Earth Summit, Comply or die, Papillon and BobbyJo were not @ 10/1 when i backed them. I usually backed them in the morning before the odds come in.

Here is the list of my winners

1) One for Arthur
2)Pineau De Re
3)Ballabriggs
4)Comply or Die
5)Silver Birch
6)Amberliegh House
7)Bindaree
8) Red Marauder also had 2nd place, wished it finished in reverse.
9)Papillon
10)BobbyJo
11)Earth Summit
12)Numbersixvalvderde


So it was 12 and not 13 my mistake.


Sorry forgot my first winner Rough Quest

Bindaree ran in Cheltenham that year. I know this as i backed him and went off him for Aintree.

Give it up mate. Your system has more holes in it than swiss cheese.

average_runner

kiers47 wrote: »

Bindaree ran in Cheltenham that year. I know this as i backed him and went off him for Aintree.

Give it up mate. Your system has more holes in it than swiss cheese.

Yes there is a few exceptions, Cheltenham part wasn't always there, last 4 years I brought that in. Its not full proof I said that already. Loads of people around me uses that formula and have done well in the past.

Its up to you if you want to use, I thought I put it up, sorry I did now.

kiers47

average_runner wrote: »

Yes there is a few exceptions, Cheltenham part wasn't always there, last 4 years I brought that in. Its not full proof I said that already. Loads of people around me uses that formula and have done well in the past.

Its up to you if you want to use, I thought I put it up, sorry I did now.

Aftertiming is pretty frowned upon around here. Saying you backed the winner of so many of the last amount of nationals will grind people. If you said that you use a system that works well around Aintree and the results are as follows people would be much more inclined to listen to what you have to say.

But coming on bragging about winners whether you meant to or not is not how to engage people around here.

I wont be using your system I will use my own broken system to have a small fun bet on a value loser as i do every year. :pac:

Best of luck to you.

danganabu

average_runner wrote: »

Yes there is a few exceptions, Cheltenham part wasn't always there, last 4 years I brought that in. Its not full proof I said that already. Loads of people around me uses that formula and have done well in the past.

Its up to you if you want to use, I thought I put it up, sorry I did now.

Pineau the Re won it four years ago having run in Cheltenham, Siver Birch is also another from your list, why would you introduce a filter that provided 3 or you alleged winners :rolleyes:

JP Liz V1

Is Tiger Roll still in?