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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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JCX BXC

There is no 'shield' in Cork, no more than the vast majority of southern Ireland. If anything I'd say cork gets snow more often than we do here in West Clare.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

I love the way the snow just seems to stop as it reaches co cork. Typical! Shield is working well

If there are north westerlies Cork will see snow. Always does in that set up.

Donegal Storm

That's the GFS, not the ECM. The 12z ECM is mostly dry again with only a brief shot of unstable air

White Clover

munsterlegend wrote: »

I love the way the snow just seems to stop as it reaches co cork. Typical! Shield is working well

Long live the snow shield. My sheep have a good bit of grazing to do yet. I don't want to see or hear about snow until the last week in January!

munsterlegend

Captain Snow wrote: »

Snow risk for next Friday. Based of the ECM this evening..:D

Cant wait for the 18Z tonight.

I love the way the snow just seems to stop as it reaches co cork. Typical! Shield is working well

Captain Snow

Snow risk for next Friday. Based off the GFS this evening..:D

Cant wait for the 18Z tonight.

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

A snow event possible for the east of the UK on the ECM 12z at +192hrs and then swings the winds in to the east by +216 hours.

Look how far south the jet is at +240 hours.

That 240 from the ECM - northeasterlies passing over the snow fields (by then) of northern England & Southern Scotland and down through the Irish Sea picking up a lot of moisture in a max fetch snow shower train creating situation in low pressure with various disturbances traveling down along it ,probably with an icy surface air feed by then is a thing of beauty
Can we dare dream of FI like that becoming a reality ?

tenor.gif?itemid=5390133

Captain Snow

Just to Note any of these lows could become a trigger low off our South coast and give us an Easterly. The Scandinavian High is also making an appearance from run to run. So many scenarios at the moment.

sryanbruen

In contrast to the above from the ECM at day 10, the GEM has us firmly in an Atlantic zonal flow:

sryanbruen

A snow event possible for the east of the UK on the ECM 12z at +192hrs and then swings the winds in to the east by +216 hours.

Look how far south the jet is at +240 hours.

Danno

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Geez, that's fair agreement on the 850's!

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/JPKassell/status/936988390943264768

MJohnston

Good consistency for the 8th across ECM, GFS, and UKMO, the ECM looking like having the coldest uppers here?

ECM0-144.GIF?02-12

icesnowfrost

7th 8th 9th 10th all looking great. Blocking in place -8 to -12 uppers on the latest run http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1625/gfs-1-168_keg5.png

Captain Snow

BOO YA Pounded with Snow Man.

GFS Delivering the Goods Tonight.

sean555

Gfs 18z keeping with the northerly for the end of next week

MidMan25

nagdefy wrote: »

That'll do me fine. Good healthy weather for animals and no real severe frost to burst water pipes, freeze troughs.

This! 5-8 degrees and crisp clear days are the best.

hatrickpatrick

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/936674290736549888

Hasn't been a great week for the winter charts
In fact the way they've been lately's bunch of arse
But I opened my laptop to check the 12z and I <Mod snip >

nagdefy

George Sunsnow wrote: »

He forgot to elaborate that it’s the exact same type of artic feed as the last week ..
That was fun wasn’t it
Here’s the ECM for next Thursday
Warmer in fact than the week gone out

That'll do me fine. Good healthy weather for animals and no real severe frost to burst water pipes, freeze troughs.

Donegal Storm

Interesting enough runs tonight, that storm is sourced south of the Azores yet could possibly bring snow, quite an unusual setup!

Of course it'll likely end up a watered down and fairly uninteresting feature but interesting to watch. Maybe chances of an active front or two as well though they've been scarcer than snow in recent times

Still no sign of low heights over Greenland either so a return to dull frontal westerlies is hopefully a while away yet

Meteorite58

Elmer Blooker

What I like about the ECM is the fall of pressure in southern Europe and the Azores/mid Atlantic high becoming less intense.
At +240 what could possibly go wrong?

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

Meteorite58

If the charts being shown in FI were to happen as shown presently then the temperature would change quickly on Thurs from perhaps 10C or so early in the morning to low sinle digits by mid afternoon ( according to the GFS and yes this is all subject to change ). Also with the strong winds showing up the GFS is predicting at this stage a severe windchill. The upper Temps are set to drop further as the day goes on into Thurs according to the ECM. A long way off yet but the models showing some agreement in the introduction of N'lys again after the upcoming milder spell of weather.

The ECM and UKMO not showing it as windy on Thurs / Fri.

George Sunsnow

He forgot to elaborate that it’s the exact same type of artic feed as the last week ..
That was fun wasn’t it
Here’s the ECM for next Thursday
Warmer in fact than the week gone out

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/936674290736549888

Meteorite58

That would be a big switch in Temps and wind direction if that storm came off around next Thurs /Fri . Picking up a deepening depression now on a few runs and as you would imagine the shape and track of it has been changing somewhat. The UK on the last couple of runs would get the strongest winds. Impossible to know at this stage if there will be snow but the chart below shows the possibility of type of precipitation based on the present runs .

GFS showing some lively weather in later runs well out in FI.
.
TQbkzTg.gif?1

The 12Z ECM must be warming the cold lovers hearts

UKMO

If the models just would all stay that way now it would be great :pac:

hatrickpatrick

Those who were saying "game over for a blocked December" might feel a little silly looking at the 12z GFS

BLIZZARD7

GFS has round 2 in deepest FI- and a 1060mb Arctic High. I hope it's onto something with these wild charts, a snowstorm would be nice.

Darwin

Looking good alright on the GFS 12z for later Thursday and Friday of next week. A deepening area of low pressure in the North Sea bringing a cold air mass and what I would expect to be snow showers over many parts. What is encouraging is the UKMO 12z has similar synoptics (cold), but not quite the same dartboard low as the GFS.