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02-12-2017, 04:24   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

This is a developing situation that could prove disruptive.

Currently the models are more than flirting with a much colder regime for Ireland and the real risk of some prolonged snowfall can not be ruled out.

As a northerly or north-northeasterly is the likely outcome it is northern areas that will take the brunt.

However there are two things in particular to watch.

On Wednesday a period of rain and strong winds will sweep up from the southwest. Initially it will be pleasantly mild and wet. However during Wednesday night and for Thursday as really cold air digs in from the north there is a real prospect this could turn to snow temporarily as temperatures plunge rapidly nationwide.

This is not nailed. What's maybe more certain is that after that bitterly cold air becomes entrenched and heavy snow showers follow - with another real prospect of troughs and polar low type features through Thursday night and Friday that would enhance snowfall for a good chunk of the country and lead to disruption.

Friday looks very cold indeed. Temperatures may struggle above freezing and may remain below over snow covered ground.

Specifics can't be nailed yet. Definitely be aware and keep an eye on forecasts.

It could be a 48 to 60 hour "event" but every chance it could go beyond that but lets keep this within the realm of the more realistic time frame. This applies until Friday night, but we will soon be able to elaborate further and in much more detail.

There is good enough cross model agreement.

More anon!

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 04-12-2017 at 00:17.
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02-12-2017, 06:24   #2
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There ain't no party like a Kermit club party....

Bring on the white gold
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02-12-2017, 06:34   #3
kod87
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I want snow as much as anyone but this thread is a bit optimistic and over the top IMO. There is potential there but it certainly didn't need its own thread at this stage but we shall see
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02-12-2017, 06:37   #4
Sleety_Rain
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That is an impressive change in airmass in 24 hours!



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02-12-2017, 06:38   #5
JanuarySnowstor
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Looks like a northerly toppler to me with max 36 hour event
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02-12-2017, 06:40   #6
sparrowcar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kod87 View Post
I want snow as much as anyone but this thread is a bit optimistic and over the top IMO. There is potential there but it certainly didn't need its own thread at this stage but we shall see
"Turning much colder, snow likely" is over the top now? How exactly?

If it said "We're all going to freeze to death next week and huge snow drifts will bring the country to a standstill" then that would be over the top.

It's just an aknowlegement of unusual weather ahead that's all, take a deep breath.
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02-12-2017, 06:50   #7
kod87
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"Turning much colder, snow likely" is over the top now? How exactly?

If it said "We're all going to freeze to death next week and huge snow drifts will bring the country to a standstill" then that would be over the top.

It's just an aknowlegement of unusual weather ahead that's all, take a deep breath.
I was thinking more this
"What's maybe more certain is that after that bitterly cold air becomes entrenched and heavy snow showers follow - with another real prospect of troughs and polar low type features through Thursday night and Friday that would enhance snowfall for a good chunk of the country and lead to disruption.

Friday looks very cold indeed. Temperatures may struggle above freezing and may remain below over snow covered ground.''


Most of that is over the top fantasy that reflects what he wants to happen not whats actually indicated.
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02-12-2017, 07:12   #8
Kermit.de.frog
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Originally Posted by kod87 View Post
I was thinking more this
"What's maybe more certain is that after that bitterly cold air becomes entrenched and heavy snow showers follow - with another real prospect of troughs and polar low type features through Thursday night and Friday that would enhance snowfall for a good chunk of the country and lead to disruption.

Friday looks very cold indeed. Temperatures may struggle above freezing and may remain below over snow covered ground.''


Most of that is over the top fantasy that reflects what he wants to happen not whats actually indicated.

I think that's a bit unfair. It is, to all intents and purposes, scientific analysis and personal intuition I am working off.

Could be wrong of course. I don't think it will be that wrong to be honest.

But let's see. Glad to take any criticism if it does not work out. Have done before.
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02-12-2017, 07:57   #9
 
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Gfs was showing the apocalyptic storm in the North Sea by next weekend last night. Looked way over blown, compared to the more sober ECM. Certainly looks like we will get a northerly next weekend, but it looks transient and how potent is undetermined just yet. I am only about 15% convinced of a disruptive spell of weather next weekend, and not just because its the firms Christmas party on Saturday...
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02-12-2017, 09:22   #10
Gaoth Laidir
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Though it's still well out in FI, the 00Z ECM is showing -9°C 850s briefly over Ireland, so that's a good start. I don't see much potential for disruption, though, as the upper trough is not as severe as the GFS, and is very limited on the GEM. 700 and 500 hPa temperatures are way colder on the GFS than the others, so the potential for deep convection and polar lows is of course exaggerated in that model. But as the whole airmass looks like originating over Greenland and moving quickly southeastwards it should give a lower snowline than last week.

But it's still only way out in FI.

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 02-12-2017 at 10:00.
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02-12-2017, 10:05   #11
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Though it's still well out in FI, the 00Z ECM is showing -9°C 850s briefly over Ireland, so that's a good start. I don't see much potential for disruption, though, as the upper trough is not as severe than the GFS, and is very limited on the GEM. 700 and 500 hPa temperatures are way colder on the GFS than the others, so the potential for deep convection and polar lows is of course exaggerated in that model. But as the whole airmass looks like originating over Greenland and moving quickly southeastwards it should give a lower snowline than last week.

But it's still only way out in FI.
Gaoth Laidir always the voice of reason on these threads. The only real gripe i would have about the thread is its title. When is snow ever Likely in Ireland especially 5 or so days away. Respect to Kermit for putting it out there and of course most would be hoping for some sort of event but a long way off yet.
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02-12-2017, 10:08   #12
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At this time of year I dont get out of bed for anything progged at more than +36 hours, and ye shouldnt either.
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02-12-2017, 10:14   #13
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The 06z run really ups the ante with widespread snow falling Thurs/Fri
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02-12-2017, 10:20   #14
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The 06z run really ups the ante with widespread snow falling Thurs/Fri
I no it most likely will all change but feck it
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02-12-2017, 11:02   #15
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Personally I think you have jinxed it Kermit as it's still a long way off....fingers crossed though
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