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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    Does the depression for these current charts for the end of this week exist anywhere as yet, or still just FI?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Does the depression for these current charts for the end of this week exist anywhere as yet, or still just FI?

    Small trough moving into Alaska today I think. Very volatile indeed.


    Onto pure FI now....

    Scandi high anyone? :rolleyes:
    gfsnh-0-384_hmo8.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    Phew! I was a bit worried about those storms over the Christmas. Thankfully it is now looking like non events. Last thing we needed is a major storm hitting on Christmas Day. My folks in Donegal were very worried as they has heard that the worst storm in 40 years was going to hit on Christmas Eve.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    Phew! I was a bit worried about those storms over the Christmas. Thankfully it is now looking like non events. Last thing we needed is a major storm hitting on Christmas Day. My folks in Donegal were very worried as they has heard that the worst storm in 40 years was going to hit on Christmas Eve.

    I think I used the words non event and shouldn't have. This is just one run. See what the ecm says come 7.30pm tonight I think before getting any comfort. Moreover, the one place that is still slated to get bad winds at present is Donegal - albeit not pass remarkably bad by Donegal standards I would imagine. Could still upgrade I am afraid though....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Mod note
    This thread is for technical discussion/analysis of FI charts only.
    For more general discussion, met eireann warnings etc, please use the Christmas Storms or Winter Weather General Discussion threads please.

    Thanks guys :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,035 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    a westerly gale from Newfoundland to beyond the Urals!!
    Another winter flushed down the jax!
    Negativity I know but a rut that's impossible to get out of for weeks on end. Sorry.

    ECH1-144.GIF?19-0


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Winds around Christmas day storm seem to be now windiest Christmas Eve Night into Christmas morning . These charts can only be taken as a loose guidance. It has been downgraded somewhat as the lows push further North. A lot more time for change either way.

    MPH

    6WulmoT.png

    EMT0clp.gif

    850hPa

    otQzqsl.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Growing model support for a Eurotrash high as we move towards 2017.

    Models have shown a move away from a chillier zonal flow that looked as if it would become more prevalent.

    The strength of the European high was underestimated by the Ensembles.

    EDM1-240.GIF?19-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    For coldies at the very end of the 6z gfs run there is a hint of the beast of the east awakening but very much in FI and no guarantee even then it would make it this far west...

    gfs-1-384.png?6?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,035 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Exactly a year ago we saw temperatures of 15/16c at night, I didn't think I'd ever see that again in mid-winter but now I'm not so sure?
    More negativity from me but I find it impossible to find anything positive about a climate where the only difference between winter and summer is the amount of daylight we receive!
    Snow in Ireland is now as rare as snow in the Arabian desert ..... and they even get more than us! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bizarre-scene-saudis-ice-skate-9359336

    ECM1-240.GIF?20-0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭pqdvdplayer


    Exactly a year ago we saw temperatures of 15/16c at night, I didn't think I'd ever see that again in mid-winter but now I'm not so sure?
    More negativity from me but I find it impossible to find anything positive about a climate where the only difference between winter and summer is the amount of daylight we receive!
    Snow in Ireland is now as rare as snow in the Arabian desert ..... and they even get more than us! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bizarre-scene-saudis-ice-skate-9359336

    ECM1-240.GIF?20-0
    Have you seen Torshavn in the Faro Islands climate? It's like ours except worse


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w




  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Go North High Pressure.....:D


    e1cjl0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Better get the Christmas shorts ready.

    gem-9-84.png?00


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w


    Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

    Good lord T+312
    Volcanoes showing up at that distance would be more realistic :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

    Good lord T+312
    Volcanoes showing up at that distance would be more realistic :D
    lol I don't just mean t+312, look at Europe and the north of us how cold it's getting and how consistent it's been on the charts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w


    lol I don't just mean t+312, look at Europe and the north of us how cold it's getting and how consistent it's bee

    Aye
    However,our high when it sets up needs to head west not east

    A high over Russia and East Scandinavia will have no impact on our weather other than to stall rain bearing fronts over the Irish Sea and push up the daffodils!

    Hugo has access to the ECM ensemble members (we don't,MT doesn't) they're an important tool but also often wrong (like most models just less so)
    A lot of them shift our high eventually west opening the door to a maritime North and the lesser possibility a polar northeasterly

    All too far away to be counted on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    FI looking better for cold, look at December 31st.

    gfs-0-210.png?18

    And by 2nd January

    gfs-0-264.png?18


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Of course it's FI but lovely eye candy serious snow blizzard potential around 5th January charts.

    gfs-0-336.png?18


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Those building blocks for cold appear 9 days away on 31st December so it's not deep FI :D

    We live in hope :)

    ECM 12Z has high pressure well to the west of us on December 31st too.

    ECM1-240.GIF?22-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Ahem!! :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Of course it's only a few runs in FI but it's great not to be looking at mid euro highs, Bartlett high's, westerlies from Newfoundland to the Urals:)

    And at least it's relatively early in the winter rather than March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Ha if something like that came off we'd be looking at one of the most extreme blizzards on record, don't think so somehow but it'd be an interesting intro to 2017

    A toppler around new year's looks like a realistic possibility at least


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w


    This is the 00z for Jan 2nd
    It's way too far away but let's comment on what it might mean
    It's suggesting our Xmas period high will drift west
    It's suggesting a high of 1044 over Greenland
    It's suggesting a mid Atlantic blocking that's ridging towards western Greenland in a sort of pincer movement to close off anything exiting Canada
    It ties in with what Mr Hugo hinted at above
    What does it mean?
    Nothing this far out as getting to the point of the attached map depends on so many things happening right now
    But usually barring the unforeseen (something not currently modelled like say a storm actually getting out of North America) we could end up with our high out west
    With the Atlantic blocked and vigorous systems over Scandinavia dropping into Europe,that could lead to the north and northeast trap door being opened,lucky we're stocking up on calories in the next week,we may well need them? :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    lets hope wet get a proper blast from the east, even if its only for a few days, it's been way to long since most of us has seen proper lying snow, we all deserve it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    New year's day toppler still a possibility on tonight's ECMWF though mostly dry and cold for us. After that though things stay interesting with an Atlantic block setting up

    ECM1-240_qfq6.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Looking nice with -8 to -12 uppers. The beginning of January is looking very cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    graphe_ens3_mfj9.gif

    Increasingly cold trend from new year's day onwards, ECMWF is even more progressive with a massive Atlantic block. Still too far away to bother get excited but at least things are looking interesting for a change


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,105 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    but at least things are looking interesting for a change

    For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?


This discussion has been closed.
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