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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

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nacho libre

Another ecm tease at 24O:p - high wanting to migrate to the north east/ Scandinavia area. i would much rather see a Greenland high though

ArKl0w

12Z gfs has a lot of very cold northwesterlies mountainy man watch out :eek:
Quite the snowy affair from letterkenny through Omagh across to Mayo Sligo Leitrim
But it also has southeasterlies in the mix with a pure easterly source
I can't remember a southeasterly fetch in the 1980's but there was one in December 2010 that dumped a foot of Arklows pre Xmas snow in one day that spell with thunder and lightning that left half the town in darkness
It did similar snow wise in South Dublin that day

Now
What's good about this 12z is the synoptics have creeped closer than 240,softly softly catchy wormy ?
Still lala land,we await the ECM in about an hour with trepidation

Gonzo

a direct easterly or slight south-easterly would be best for many of us. The IOM shadow depending on wind direction can mean game over for nearly half the east coast.

The best cold spell is a week long experience with varying winds from north-east to south-east, that way everybody shares a bit of the pain of the IOM and everywhere gets a few days of snow trains. There is nothing worse than being stuck under the shadow for the entirety of a cold snap with nothing but blue sunny skies and a hard frost while either side of you is hammered by snow.

In 2010 my area started off with great snow trains but we were stuck under the shadow for 2 whole days while closeby at Dublin Airport and Blanch got hammered repeatedly. Then for 1 day the shadow changed and the Airport/Blanch had a sunny day while we got hammered. In the end I ended up with about 14 inchs of snow but the airport and blanch/castleknock areas did the best with close to 2 foot of snow.

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I'll put these up for a bit of craic and to make your mouth water. If thing go this way the east coast will get plastered with snow ❄️

Looks like those are projected from a northeasterly
Iom shadow effect is not modelled but in that flow probably affecting Louth to North Dublin and all points inland
Main snow trains would mostly be from South Dublin to about Wexford town and points inland if I'm right?
Straight easterly would concentrate snow trains into Dublin northwards

Plenty northerly too around for Ulster down to S Louth and of course Sligo mayo Leitrim
Different days different wind direction different areas affected

All lala land yet of course

icesnowfrost

I'll put these up for a bit of craic and to make your mouth water. If thing go this way the east coast will get plastered with snow ❄️

icesnowfrost

It's been so consistent trying to bring in cold weather. It's looking great so far but how many times have we been let down

but it's starting to look like a trend from run to run. Good signs for cold but how much snow will it bring ?

pedigree 6

It's a trap. It's too far away folks. You'll have your hearts broken again.:p:D

That said in the short term it's nice to see a forecasted increase in snow cover in Europe. From Noaa for the 7th Jan.

gally74

Strong Life in Dublin wrote: »

Hopefully the 12z is not too much of a downgrade

Every Christmas tune into this forum. Well done to all. Waiting for someone to mention the snowmagettion word

Strong Life in Dublin

Hopefully the 12z is not too much of a downgrade

Supercell

Has to be said, there is pretty tight ensemble agreement, from TWO

ArKl0w

Strong Life in Dublin wrote: »

I'm a complete noob, but looking at the GFS run this morning and to my untrained eye it looks like we miss out on the good stuff?

for example:

Those are indicative
Also if temps were that low under snow cover in the U.K. With surface winds off there,we'd have ice days and snow showers for sure here as the entire air flow from cloud top to surface would be sub zero

All still lala land

Strong Life in Dublin

I'm a complete noob, but looking at the GFS run this morning and to my untrained eye it looks like we miss out on the good stuff?

for example:

Iancar29

Sweet dreams are made of...

the 06z gfs !

who am I to disagreeeeeeeeeeee!

55de90f9fe246c7e8ea89d7802a3fd4758e9f1427ee0424b202a8dc10437cb6c.jpg

J6P

GFS 6z... Holy moly

Coldest/Snowiest run I've ever seen.

Hopefully it's not a massive outlier in the ensembles.

pedigree 6

Another weekend another cold spell.

It looks like the risk is there of some backedge snow from the cold front on sunday. We could get a bit back on the mountains again.

ArKl0w

Glasnevin have climatic norms on their side so more chance,in fact a 9 out of 10 chance of being right

All of this is still in lala land nice and all as it is to speculate on what it could mean
It's showing no signs of breaking out beyond 240 yet
Technically it's actually never getting nearer than day 10 so you're right to be sceptical

As for met Eireanns 755 am forecasts,they're still doing a disservice to be giving the impression to listeners that they know what's happening in a weeks time
That's unhelpful even if it's super cold
The stupid thing and only we know this, IS they've no qualms historically of saying Siberia is coming if that's what the 0z says prior to the 755 forecast even if it's the first and last to have it
It's not good policy in my opinion

fraxinus1

I refuse to get my hopes up that a decent cold spell will hit in the new year. No disrespect to any one on here but my hopes have been dashed so many times in the past regarding cold spells. I know some on here are suggesting that Met Eireann 's forecast this morning was premature to mention mild weather next week but when I read it my heart sank!

ArKl0w

Tonight's ECM op run if repeated in the 0z run will make tomorrow's radio forecast completely different to today's and a perfect example of stupid outlook wording on the glasnevin 755am forecast
Assuming a trend is being picked up

Oh and if it verifies,mountainy man over in Sligo may stock up
The rest of us may follow suit eventually

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/814017611197509632

Also says caution needed, but signs of a decent Greenland block forming.

pedigree 6

Keeping with the same time period.
The GEM model throws up a perculiar Low Pressure off the south east of Ireland on the 2nd.:rolleyes:

Captain Snow

Nice 120Hr chart Snow Showers Rattling in off the Irish Sea. Possible brief spell of cold just have to wait and see how the models change when the cold arrives New Years Day.

Iancar29

Captain Snow wrote: »

Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......

Certainly possible looking at the 06z run. 20 degree temp spread!

Definitely one to keep an eye on as models find it hard to predict "lake effect" ppn.

ArKl0w

Quite apart from the fact that Gfs is just 1 run and that the above output is in LA LA LAND
The ECM model has backed off
Even suggesting our high will slide into Europe now

Worth keeping an eye on but until there's a trend in the cold direction (And there isn't) ,I shan't be posting any more comments

If anyone wants to know why ,have a look at historical threads from about Jan 5th to the 14 onwards 2007
A perfect set up leading us all down the garden path
By about the 14th despite an epic cold spell being 4 or 5 days away on the models,it was all a mistake by them and we and the UK saw no cold spell

Just a sobering warning
Looking at lala land FI charts is pointless other than the academic what if

Joe Bastardi's tweet earlier may be based on more information like ecm ensemble Data
But proper forecasters only use those for tricky sub 96hr forecasts
They don't rely on them out beyond that unless they're very consistent,I suppose as Bastardi has them(so has Hugo) ,tweets from both may give some coldie hopeful insight ?
Proceed with caution

Pa ElGrande

Don't know if we want this cold . . .

Biting cold below minus 60C brings out the best in Siberian face fashion
22 December 2016

This is not a week when there was any evidence of global warming in western Siberia, with thermometers plunging to the minus 40s and minus 62 Celsius. Meteorologists say it may get colder still.

At Bolshoe Olkhovskoe oilfield there was a new record for the Khanti-Mansi region with a bone-crushing temperature of minus 62C. The village of Kazym in the same district of Beloyarsky hit minus 58C.

A video was posted entitled: 'Surgut men are so hardy they only ride on a swing and eat ice cream at minus 51C.'

In Nadym, it nudged minus 50C, and all schools were closed. In Tyumen, school classes were cancelled from grades 1 to 9, with minus 36C the trigger for children to stay home, although elsewhere in Siberia - for example Yakutia in recent weeks - students are still expected in school at below minus 52C.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2wOjd6QoKY

Nizhnevartovsk hit minus 50C, the coldest winter in ten years in the city. School classes were cancelled today - and for the rest of the week.

Such temperatures happen in eastern Siberia, but in the west they are more rare.

source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ckq5aeaaU

There is another opinion

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
December 19, 2016

Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.

Summary

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to first trend positive towards strongly positive and then trend negative back towards neutral. However the models do not predict a negative AO in the foreseeable future.

The positive AO is reflective of mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic and mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins. With negative heights over Greenland and Iceland, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently positive and is also predicted to remain positive over the next two weeks.

The persistent positive AO will likely result in a mild pattern over western Eurasia, especially Northern Europe. Cold air currently over Western Asia will be shunted further east into East Asia over the next two weeks.
<snip>
Near-Term

1-2 week

The AO is predicted to remain positive for next week (Figure 1). The positive AO is a result of mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic basin and mostly positive geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins (Figure 5a). And with negative geopotential height anomalies predicted near Iceland and Greenland as well, the NAO is also predicted to remain positive this period.

The mid-tropospheric blocking that has been in place for the past two months across western Eurasia is predicted to finally give way. With ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies stretching across Southern Europe and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Northern Europe, will create strong zonal flow across Europe (Figure 5a). This will create a mild westerly flow of maritime air for all of Western Eurasia, resulting in above normal temperatures for Europe, Western Asia and even Western Siberia (Figure 6). Weak ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies downstream over Western Asia will force enough troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in Central and Eastern Siberia (Figure 5a) to allow for below normal temperatures across the region (Figure 6). Positive geopotential height anomalies will persist across East Asia (Figure 5a) resulting in seasonable to above normal temperatures for East Asia (Figure 6)

source

Nothing major forecast for the Arkhangelsk region or Murmansk region yet.

https://www.gismeteo.com/map/557/

Colder conditions forecast for the first week of January 2017 in the Murmansk region and Arkhangelsk.

Captain Snow

Winter Just Made its Presence .....

The 2 lows are going to Explode south......

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/813394730159656960

Captain Snow

Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......

Donegal Storm

JCX BXC wrote: »

For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?

Yeah you're probably right, I was abroad a month ago so can't say I was following things too closely. Every chance this one will end up being a dud again of course

JCX BXC

Donegal Storm wrote: »

but at least things are looking interesting for a change

For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?

Donegal Storm

Increasingly cold trend from new year's day onwards, ECMWF is even more progressive with a massive Atlantic block. Still too far away to bother get excited but at least things are looking interesting for a change