FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mafra

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still a considerable amount of uncertainty but a definite disappointment following the 6z GFS. Let's see does the 18z GFS have any treats for us....

So a setback?

Easterly Beasterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still a considerable amount of uncertainty but a definite disappointment following the 6z GFS. Let's see does the 18z GFS have any treats for us....

The only way was down after that 6z..I still think we might be on the cusp of something though!

nagdefy

Nothing too wrong with the GFS 18Z in the short and medium term as it rolls out. Lots of good potential. The Atlantic is quiet.

Captain Snow

Its about Time January delivered a Good Proper Winter Freeze.

fraxinus1

6z GFS.... the downgrade commences.

kittyn

fraxinus1 wrote: »

6z GFS.... the downgrade commences.

Is it not the 18z rolling out? It would be hard to upgrade the 06z we had today in all fairness

Captain Snow

kittyn wrote: »

Is it not the 18z rolling out? It would be hard to upgrade the 06z we had today in all fairness

The 18z just finished.

pedigree 6

I hope everyone likes cold frosty weather.
Lag those water pipes.
Still very cold with a draw from a bitterly cold Europe.

kittyn

Captain Snow wrote: »

The 18z just finished.

I was responding to another poster saying the 06z was a let down lol

Nabber

Assuming 96hrs+ is FI

Why have we got negative posts when +72 is pretty much locked in with most models.
Wind direction and wind speed is what we should be talking about, not the down grades.

I'll be keeping an eye on how fast the cold air will push down. 48hrs of cold and the odd flurry and I'll be happy. If just NI get snow, I'll be happy for them.

GFS 72 Hrs 18z


UKMO 72 Hrs 12z


GEFS 72 Hrs 18z


ECM 72 Hrs 12z


GEM 72 Hrs 12z

mickger844posts

In the T120+ timeframe GFS and ECM overnight runs still good but UKMO not playing ball. A bit worrying as UKMO has been right when out on its own before. Still a lot to keep us interested.

nagdefy

mickger844posts wrote: »

In the T120+ timeframe GFS and ECM overnight runs still good but UKMO not playing ball. A bit worrying as UKMO has been right when out on its own before. Still a lot to keep us interested.

The UKMO is a bit like Brexit at the moment

icesnowfrost

The 7th to the 9th is looking very interesting. Plenty of cold weather around and the 7the could draw In a nice northerly but the uppers need to be a slight bit colder. All in all for the last week or so it's been very consistent trying and keeping this cold snap in place. Maybe Sunday and Monday might produce the first snow of the year and I'd say 99% mountains and hills in the north. Might get a covering at some stage Sunday to Monday at low levels in north Leinster.
Is it worth doing a cold snap thread for the 1st and 2nd?

ArKl0w

To be honest and I have to be brutally honest,next weekend is far from nailed as an event
No point sugar coating
It could take a few attempts for nature to throw snowballs at us,a few false starts but at least it has time
The inevitable freezing runs and not so cold will come and go in the meantime making for excitement especially when one of them makes it into the reliable timeframe

icesnowfrost

ArKl0w wrote: »

To be honest and I have to be brutally honest,next weekend is far from nailed as an event
No point sugar coating
It could take a few attempts for nature to throw snowballs at us,a few false starts but at least it has time
The inevitable freezing runs and not so cold will come and go in the meantime making for excitement especially when one of them makes it into the reliable timeframe

But this weekend is In a reliable timeframe is it not. I no it's not going to be a snowfest but it's going to be really cold for at least 2 days with some snowfall around. Just thought it might be worth making it a mini event but sure that's just me ❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️☃️

Donegal Storm

Darkman already started one last night

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057686937/1/#post102100521

Definitely potential for a dusting of snow in the North and maybe the east from what I can see, not going to be a major event but would be a nice intro to the new year

Gonzo

just seen the forecast on RTE and they just mentioned rain. Temps not that cold either, 10-12C tomorrow, 5-7c on Sunday and staying mostly dry with a chance of 'wintry' showers on high ground. After a few cool and mostly dry days it's back to mild. As Arklow said this is far from an event.

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Darkman already started one last night

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057686937/1/#post102100521

Definitely potential for a dusting of snow in the North and maybe the east from what I can see, not going to be a major event but would be a nice intro to the new year

I think there is potential for snow on high ground in the north and east,but not lower down. We have to hope the following weekend might deliver, Harp.

ArKl0w

nacho libre wrote: »

I think there is potential for snow on high ground in the north and east,but not lower down. We have to hope the following weekend might deliver, Harp.

A pool of -10 850 air over the east not delivering snow to sea level if there's precipitation?
Oh it will be snow if it's that cold aloft

icesnowfrost

ArKl0w wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

I think there is potential for snow on high ground in the north and east,but not lower down. We have to hope the following weekend might deliver, Harp.

A pool of -10 850 air over the east not delivering snow to sea level if there's precipitation?
Oh it will be snow if it's that cold aloft

-10, sure anything -8 would do, wouldn't it ?

nacho libre

ArKl0w wrote: »

A pool of -10 850 air over the east not delivering snow to sea level if there's precipitation?
Oh it will be snow if it's that cold aloft

I suspect there won't be precipitation at that stage, we will see. Perhaps after the front has cleared there will be coastal streamers, but it's unlikely there will be widespread snow over the weekend

nagdefy

The GFS 12Z is literally going a little pear shaped Ah well it's just one run but seems to be moving towards the UKMO.

fraxinus1

nagdefy wrote:

The GFS 12Z is literally going a little pear shaped Ah well it's just one run but seems to be moving towards the UKMO.

Once it starts falling in line with the more consistent UKMO it's game over. I knew it would be to good to be true. Ireland will miss out by about 100 miles. It's depressing. Well I'm not wasting any more mental energy on this.

Donegal Storm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

-10, sure anything -8 would do, wouldn't it ?

Sea level pressure is forecast to be high meaning the 850hpa level will be higher than normal so -8C probably won't be cold enough, even -10C will be marginal. After a closer look I'd agree with nacho on a mainly high ground event, hi-res models will make things clearer when it comes into range though

pedigree 6

I was looking at windytv and it must have been flipping between different runs for Saturday. But there was some difference in the outcomes.
This is the current run.


But it must have been a previous run.
Anyway a simple thing like splitting the two weak low pressures by high pressure cut off the long southerly draw of warm air and we were in a much cooler scenario.
I thought it was interesting anyway how a little thing can have a big influence.

icesnowfrost

Back to a nice upgrade for the 7th

Rougies

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Back to a nice upgrade for the 7th

It's really all over the place at the moment. I'm watching the rollercoaster from the merry-go-round for the moment. If the UKMO, ECM and GFS start to agree on proper cold in FI I'll buy my tickets, but only getting on if they agree < 120 hrs.

pad199207

Rougies wrote: »

It's really all over the place at the moment. I'm watching the rollercoaster from the merry-go-round for the moment. If the UKMO, ECM and GFS start to agree on proper cold in FI I'll buy my tickets, but only getting on if they agree < 120 hrs.

Well if that's the case well then ye may forget about buying those tickets

Rougies

pad199207 wrote: »

Well if that's the case well then ye may forget about buying those tickets

True, in that case I'll just hop over the railings

Harry Palmr

It'll be all over in about 48 hours even if it happens.