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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

0z280Bf.png?1

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q85dw7osi4lebg

Does the depression for these current charts for the end of this week exist anywhere as yet, or still just FI?

Iancar29

Elliot Dead Thundershower wrote: »

Does the depression for these current charts for the end of this week exist anywhere as yet, or still just FI?

Small trough moving into Alaska today I think. Very volatile indeed.

Onto pure FI now....

Scandi high anyone? :rolleyes:

fraxinus1

Phew! I was a bit worried about those storms over the Christmas. Thankfully it is now looking like non events. Last thing we needed is a major storm hitting on Christmas Day. My folks in Donegal were very worried as they has heard that the worst storm in 40 years was going to hit on Christmas Eve.

Rebelbrowser

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Phew! I was a bit worried about those storms over the Christmas. Thankfully it is now looking like non events. Last thing we needed is a major storm hitting on Christmas Day. My folks in Donegal were very worried as they has heard that the worst storm in 40 years was going to hit on Christmas Eve.

I think I used the words non event and shouldn't have. This is just one run. See what the ecm says come 7.30pm tonight I think before getting any comfort. Moreover, the one place that is still slated to get bad winds at present is Donegal - albeit not pass remarkably bad by Donegal standards I would imagine. Could still upgrade I am afraid though....

Lumi

Mod note
This thread is for technical discussion/analysis of FI charts only.
For more general discussion, met eireann warnings etc, please use the Christmas Storms or Winter Weather General Discussion threads please.

Thanks guys

Elmer Blooker

a westerly gale from Newfoundland to beyond the Urals!!
Another winter flushed down the jax!
Negativity I know but a rut that's impossible to get out of for weeks on end. Sorry.

ECH1-144.GIF?19-0

Meteorite58

Winds around Christmas day storm seem to be now windiest Christmas Eve Night into Christmas morning . These charts can only be taken as a loose guidance. It has been downgraded somewhat as the lows push further North. A lot more time for change either way.

MPH

850hPa

ninebeanrows

Growing model support for a Eurotrash high as we move towards 2017.

Models have shown a move away from a chillier zonal flow that looked as if it would become more prevalent.

The strength of the European high was underestimated by the Ensembles.

EDM1-240.GIF?19-0

Rebelbrowser

For coldies at the very end of the 6z gfs run there is a hint of the beast of the east awakening but very much in FI and no guarantee even then it would make it this far west...

gfs-1-384.png?6?6

Elmer Blooker

Exactly a year ago we saw temperatures of 15/16c at night, I didn't think I'd ever see that again in mid-winter but now I'm not so sure?
More negativity from me but I find it impossible to find anything positive about a climate where the only difference between winter and summer is the amount of daylight we receive!
Snow in Ireland is now as rare as snow in the Arabian desert ..... and they even get more than us! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bizarre-scene-saudis-ice-skate-9359336

ECM1-240.GIF?20-0

pqdvdplayer

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Exactly a year ago we saw temperatures of 15/16c at night, I didn't think I'd ever see that again in mid-winter but now I'm not so sure?
More negativity from me but I find it impossible to find anything positive about a climate where the only difference between winter and summer is the amount of daylight we receive!
Snow in Ireland is now as rare as snow in the Arabian desert ..... and they even get more than us! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bizarre-scene-saudis-ice-skate-9359336

Have you seen Torshavn in the Faro Islands climate? It's like ours except worse

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/811329061175853056

Captain Snow

Go North High Pressure.....:D

icesnowfrost

Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

Nabber

Better get the Christmas shorts ready.

gem-9-84.png?00

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

Good lord T+312
Volcanoes showing up at that distance would be more realistic

icesnowfrost

ArKl0w wrote: »

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

Good lord T+312
Volcanoes showing up at that distance would be more realistic

lol I don't just mean t+312, look at Europe and the north of us how cold it's getting and how consistent it's been on the charts

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

lol I don't just mean t+312, look at Europe and the north of us how cold it's getting and how consistent it's bee

Aye
However,our high when it sets up needs to head west not east

A high over Russia and East Scandinavia will have no impact on our weather other than to stall rain bearing fronts over the Irish Sea and push up the daffodils!

Hugo has access to the ECM ensemble members (we don't,MT doesn't) they're an important tool but also often wrong (like most models just less so)
A lot of them shift our high eventually west opening the door to a maritime North and the lesser possibility a polar northeasterly

All too far away to be counted on

nagdefy

FI looking better for cold, look at December 31st.

gfs-0-210.png?18

And by 2nd January

gfs-0-264.png?18

nagdefy

Of course it's FI but lovely eye candy serious snow blizzard potential around 5th January charts.

gfs-0-336.png?18

nagdefy

Those building blocks for cold appear 9 days away on 31st December so it's not deep FI

We live in hope

ECM 12Z has high pressure well to the west of us on December 31st too.

ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

icesnowfrost

Ahem!!

nagdefy

Of course it's only a few runs in FI but it's great not to be looking at mid euro highs, Bartlett high's, westerlies from Newfoundland to the Urals:)

And at least it's relatively early in the winter rather than March.

Donegal Storm

Ha if something like that came off we'd be looking at one of the most extreme blizzards on record, don't think so somehow but it'd be an interesting intro to 2017

A toppler around new year's looks like a realistic possibility at least

ArKl0w

This is the 00z for Jan 2nd
It's way too far away but let's comment on what it might mean
It's suggesting our Xmas period high will drift west
It's suggesting a high of 1044 over Greenland
It's suggesting a mid Atlantic blocking that's ridging towards western Greenland in a sort of pincer movement to close off anything exiting Canada
It ties in with what Mr Hugo hinted at above
What does it mean?
Nothing this far out as getting to the point of the attached map depends on so many things happening right now
But usually barring the unforeseen (something not currently modelled like say a storm actually getting out of North America) we could end up with our high out west
With the Atlantic blocked and vigorous systems over Scandinavia dropping into Europe,that could lead to the north and northeast trap door being opened,lucky we're stocking up on calories in the next week,we may well need them?

Gonzo

lets hope wet get a proper blast from the east, even if its only for a few days, it's been way to long since most of us has seen proper lying snow, we all deserve it.

Donegal Storm

New year's day toppler still a possibility on tonight's ECMWF though mostly dry and cold for us. After that though things stay interesting with an Atlantic block setting up

icesnowfrost

Looking nice with -8 to -12 uppers. The beginning of January is looking very cold.

Donegal Storm

Increasingly cold trend from new year's day onwards, ECMWF is even more progressive with a massive Atlantic block. Still too far away to bother get excited but at least things are looking interesting for a change

JCX BXC

Donegal Storm wrote: »

but at least things are looking interesting for a change

For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?