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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Don't know if we want this cold . . .
Biting cold below minus 60C brings out the best in Siberian face fashion
22 December 2016This is not a week when there was any evidence of global warming in western Siberia, with thermometers plunging to the minus 40s and minus 62 Celsius. Meteorologists say it may get colder still.
At Bolshoe Olkhovskoe oilfield there was a new record for the Khanti-Mansi region with a bone-crushing temperature of minus 62C. The village of Kazym in the same district of Beloyarsky hit minus 58C.
A video was posted entitled: 'Surgut men are so hardy they only ride on a swing and eat ice cream at minus 51C.'
In Nadym, it nudged minus 50C, and all schools were closed. In Tyumen, school classes were cancelled from grades 1 to 9, with minus 36C the trigger for children to stay home, although elsewhere in Siberia - for example Yakutia in recent weeks - students are still expected in school at below minus 52C.
Nizhnevartovsk hit minus 50C, the coldest winter in ten years in the city. School classes were cancelled today - and for the rest of the week.
Such temperatures happen in eastern Siberia, but in the west they are more rare.
source
There is another opinion
Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
December 19, 2016Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.
Summary
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to first trend positive towards strongly positive and then trend negative back towards neutral. However the models do not predict a negative AO in the foreseeable future.
The positive AO is reflective of mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic and mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins. With negative heights over Greenland and Iceland, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently positive and is also predicted to remain positive over the next two weeks.
The persistent positive AO will likely result in a mild pattern over western Eurasia, especially Northern Europe. Cold air currently over Western Asia will be shunted further east into East Asia over the next two weeks.
<snip>
Near-Term
1-2 week
The AO is predicted to remain positive for next week (Figure 1). The positive AO is a result of mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic basin and mostly positive geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins (Figure 5a). And with negative geopotential height anomalies predicted near Iceland and Greenland as well, the NAO is also predicted to remain positive this period.
The mid-tropospheric blocking that has been in place for the past two months across western Eurasia is predicted to finally give way. With ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies stretching across Southern Europe and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Northern Europe, will create strong zonal flow across Europe (Figure 5a). This will create a mild westerly flow of maritime air for all of Western Eurasia, resulting in above normal temperatures for Europe, Western Asia and even Western Siberia (Figure 6). Weak ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies downstream over Western Asia will force enough troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in Central and Eastern Siberia (Figure 5a) to allow for below normal temperatures across the region (Figure 6). Positive geopotential height anomalies will persist across East Asia (Figure 5a) resulting in seasonable to above normal temperatures for East Asia (Figure 6)
source
Nothing major forecast for the Arkhangelsk region or Murmansk region yet.
https://www.gismeteo.com/map/557/
Colder conditions forecast for the first week of January 2017 in the Murmansk region and Arkhangelsk.Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.
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Captain Snow wrote: »Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......
Certainly possible looking at the 06z run. 20 degree temp spread!
Definitely one to keep an eye on as models find it hard to predict "lake effect" ppn.0 -
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Strong Life in Dublin wrote: »I'm a complete noob, but looking at the GFS run this morning and to my untrained eye it looks like we miss out on the good stuff?
for example:
Those are indicative
Also if temps were that low under snow cover in the U.K. With surface winds off there,we'd have ice days and snow showers for sure here as the entire air flow from cloud top to surface would be sub zero
All still lala land0 -
Has to be said, there is pretty tight ensemble agreement, from TWO
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2wOjd6QoKY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ckq5aeaaU
but it's starting to look like a trend from run to run. Good signs for cold but how much snow will it bring ? 
This discussion has been closed.
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