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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm

    JCX BXC wrote: »
    For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?

    Yeah you're probably right, I was abroad a month ago so can't say I was following things too closely. Every chance this one will end up being a dud again of course

  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow

    Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow

    Winter Just Made its Presence .....


    The 2 lows are going to Explode south......

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,493 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande

    Don't know if we want this cold . . .

    Biting cold below minus 60C brings out the best in Siberian face fashion
    22 December 2016
    This is not a week when there was any evidence of global warming in western Siberia, with thermometers plunging to the minus 40s and minus 62 Celsius. Meteorologists say it may get colder still.

    At Bolshoe Olkhovskoe oilfield there was a new record for the Khanti-Mansi region with a bone-crushing temperature of minus 62C. The village of Kazym in the same district of Beloyarsky hit minus 58C.

    A video was posted entitled: 'Surgut men are so hardy they only ride on a swing and eat ice cream at minus 51C.'

    In Nadym, it nudged minus 50C, and all schools were closed. In Tyumen, school classes were cancelled from grades 1 to 9, with minus 36C the trigger for children to stay home, although elsewhere in Siberia - for example Yakutia in recent weeks - students are still expected in school at below minus 52C.

    Nizhnevartovsk hit minus 50C, the coldest winter in ten years in the city. School classes were cancelled today - and for the rest of the week.

    Such temperatures happen in eastern Siberia, but in the west they are more rare.


    There is another opinion

    Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
    December 19, 2016
    Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.


    The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to first trend positive towards strongly positive and then trend negative back towards neutral. However the models do not predict a negative AO in the foreseeable future.

    The positive AO is reflective of mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic and mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins. With negative heights over Greenland and Iceland, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently positive and is also predicted to remain positive over the next two weeks.

    The persistent positive AO will likely result in a mild pattern over western Eurasia, especially Northern Europe. Cold air currently over Western Asia will be shunted further east into East Asia over the next two weeks.

    1-2 week

    The AO is predicted to remain positive for next week (Figure 1). The positive AO is a result of mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic basin and mostly positive geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins (Figure 5a). And with negative geopotential height anomalies predicted near Iceland and Greenland as well, the NAO is also predicted to remain positive this period.

    The mid-tropospheric blocking that has been in place for the past two months across western Eurasia is predicted to finally give way. With ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies stretching across Southern Europe and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Northern Europe, will create strong zonal flow across Europe (Figure 5a). This will create a mild westerly flow of maritime air for all of Western Eurasia, resulting in above normal temperatures for Europe, Western Asia and even Western Siberia (Figure 6). Weak ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies downstream over Western Asia will force enough troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in Central and Eastern Siberia (Figure 5a) to allow for below normal temperatures across the region (Figure 6). Positive geopotential height anomalies will persist across East Asia (Figure 5a) resulting in seasonable to above normal temperatures for East Asia (Figure 6)


    Nothing major forecast for the Arkhangelsk region or Murmansk region yet.


    Colder conditions forecast for the first week of January 2017 in the Murmansk region and Arkhangelsk.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

    Quite apart from the fact that Gfs is just 1 run and that the above output is in LA LA LAND
    The ECM model has backed off
    Even suggesting our high will slide into Europe now

    Worth keeping an eye on but until there's a trend in the cold direction (And there isn't) ,I shan't be posting any more comments

    If anyone wants to know why ,have a look at historical threads from about Jan 5th to the 14 onwards 2007
    A perfect set up leading us all down the garden path
    By about the 14th despite an epic cold spell being 4 or 5 days away on the models,it was all a mistake by them and we and the UK saw no cold spell

    Just a sobering warning
    Looking at lala land FI charts is pointless other than the academic what if

    Joe Bastardi's tweet earlier may be based on more information like ecm ensemble Data
    But proper forecasters only use those for tricky sub 96hr forecasts
    They don't rely on them out beyond that unless they're very consistent,I suppose as Bastardi has them(so has Hugo) ,tweets from both may give some coldie hopeful insight ?
    Proceed with caution

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29

    Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......


    Certainly possible looking at the 06z run. 20 degree temp spread!



    Definitely one to keep an eye on as models find it hard to predict "lake effect" ppn.

  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow

    Nice 120Hr chart Snow Showers Rattling in off the Irish Sea. Possible brief spell of cold just have to wait and see how the models change when the cold arrives New Years Day.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6

    Keeping with the same time period.
    The GEM model throws up a perculiar Low Pressure off the south east of Ireland on the 2nd.:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,727 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK

    Also says caution needed, but signs of a decent Greenland block forming.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

    Tonight's ECM op run if repeated in the 0z run will make tomorrow's radio forecast completely different to today's and a perfect example of stupid outlook wording on the glasnevin 755am forecast
    Assuming a trend is being picked up

    Oh and if it verifies,mountainy man over in Sligo may stock up
    The rest of us may follow suit eventually

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1

    I refuse to get my hopes up that a decent cold spell will hit in the new year. No disrespect to any one on here but my hopes have been dashed so many times in the past regarding cold spells. I know some on here are suggesting that Met Eireann 's forecast this morning was premature to mention mild weather next week but when I read it my heart sank!

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

    Glasnevin have climatic norms on their side so more chance,in fact a 9 out of 10 chance of being right

    All of this is still in lala land nice and all as it is to speculate on what it could mean
    It's showing no signs of breaking out beyond 240 yet
    Technically it's actually never getting nearer than day 10 so you're right to be sceptical

    As for met Eireanns 755 am forecasts,they're still doing a disservice to be giving the impression to listeners that they know what's happening in a weeks time
    That's unhelpful even if it's super cold
    The stupid thing and only we know this, IS they've no qualms historically of saying Siberia is coming if that's what the 0z says prior to the 755 forecast even if it's the first and last to have it
    It's not good policy in my opinion

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6

    Another weekend another cold spell.


    It looks like the risk is there of some backedge snow from the cold front on sunday. We could get a bit back on the mountains again.

  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭J6P

    GFS 6z... Holy moly

    Coldest/Snowiest run I've ever seen.

    Hopefully it's not a massive outlier in the ensembles.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29

    Sweet dreams are made of...

    the 06z gfs !

    who am I to disagreeeeeeeeeeee!



  • Registered Users Posts: 487 ✭✭Strong Life in Dublin

    I'm a complete noob, but looking at the GFS run this morning and to my untrained eye it looks like we miss out on the good stuff?

    for example:

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

    I'm a complete noob, but looking at the GFS run this morning and to my untrained eye it looks like we miss out on the good stuff?

    for example:

    Those are indicative
    Also if temps were that low under snow cover in the U.K. With surface winds off there,we'd have ice days and snow showers for sure here as the entire air flow from cloud top to surface would be sub zero

    All still lala land

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell

    Has to be said, there is pretty tight ensemble agreement, from TWO


    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network -

  • Registered Users Posts: 487 ✭✭Strong Life in Dublin

    Hopefully the 12z is not too much of a downgrade

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74

    Hopefully the 12z is not too much of a downgrade

    Every Christmas tune into this forum. Well done to all. Waiting for someone to mention the snowmagettion word

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6

    It's a trap. It's too far away folks. You'll have your hearts broken again.:p:D

    That said in the short term it's nice to see a forecasted increase in snow cover in Europe. From Noaa for the 7th Jan.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost

    It's been so consistent trying to bring in cold weather. It's looking great so far but how many times have we been let down :( but it's starting to look like a trend from run to run. Good signs for cold but how much snow will it bring ?

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost

    I'll put these up for a bit of craic and to make your mouth water. If thing go this way the east coast will get plastered with snow ❄️

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

    I'll put these up for a bit of craic and to make your mouth water. If thing go this way the east coast will get plastered with snow ❄️

    Looks like those are projected from a northeasterly
    Iom shadow effect is not modelled but in that flow probably affecting Louth to North Dublin and all points inland
    Main snow trains would mostly be from South Dublin to about Wexford town and points inland if I'm right?
    Straight easterly would concentrate snow trains into Dublin northwards

    Plenty northerly too around for Ulster down to S Louth and of course Sligo mayo Leitrim
    Different days different wind direction different areas affected

    All lala land yet of course

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    a direct easterly or slight south-easterly would be best for many of us. The IOM shadow depending on wind direction can mean game over for nearly half the east coast.

    The best cold spell is a week long experience with varying winds from north-east to south-east, that way everybody shares a bit of the pain of the IOM and everywhere gets a few days of snow trains. There is nothing worse than being stuck under the shadow for the entirety of a cold snap with nothing but blue sunny skies and a hard frost while either side of you is hammered by snow.

    In 2010 my area started off with great snow trains but we were stuck under the shadow for 2 whole days while closeby at Dublin Airport and Blanch got hammered repeatedly. Then for 1 day the shadow changed and the Airport/Blanch had a sunny day while we got hammered. In the end I ended up with about 14 inchs of snow but the airport and blanch/castleknock areas did the best with close to 2 foot of snow.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w

    12Z gfs has a lot of very cold northwesterlies mountainy man watch out :eek:
    Quite the snowy affair from letterkenny through Omagh across to Mayo Sligo Leitrim
    But it also has southeasterlies in the mix with a pure easterly source
    I can't remember a southeasterly fetch in the 1980's but there was one in December 2010 that dumped a foot of Arklows pre Xmas snow in one day that spell with thunder and lightning that left half the town in darkness
    It did similar snow wise in South Dublin that day

    What's good about this 12z is the synoptics have creeped closer than 240,softly softly catchy wormy ?
    Still lala land,we await the ECM in about an hour with trepidation

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,634 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre

    Another ecm tease at 24O:p - high wanting to migrate to the north east/ Scandinavia area. i would much rather see a Greenland high though

  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow

    Tonights 18z GFS could be out of

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows

    Still a considerable amount of uncertainty but a definite disappointment following the 6z GFS. Let's see does the 18z GFS have any treats for us....

This discussion has been closed.