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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    Take this with plenty of salt. There is potentional for some white stuff on the big day in the northern half of the country. Some modals showing different variance in guidance but there is a chance. It will be all down to timing, flip a coin from Tropical maritime or Polor maritime air flow.
    240_mslp850uk.png.1b1374d1ce007e04c5200f1f46b3df76.png

    Some difference in the 850 temps north and south!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    It's livened up a fair bit here then.:D;)

    It does look to be some beast though. Here it is from windytv.

    screenshot_1.png


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 3,879 Mod ✭✭✭✭Planet X


    S / SW, should be nice and warm.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,010 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    18Z GFS . all calm Christmas eve and the days before it. charts are all over the place. also showing high pressure slap bang over the country for NYE


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    18Z GFS . all calm Christmas eve and the days before it. charts are all over the place. also showing high pressure slap bang over the country for NYE

    Suppose it's at the 8/9 day stage still. There'll be a bit of flip/flopping until Sunday at least.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    06z control run ... MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMAL
    gens-0-1-228_bgr2.png

    raw


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,010 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Some serious damage if that came to pass!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Does anyone else think that these potential storms may actually be a good thing down the line and shake things up a bit??
    Could we actually get a good Greenland high going from all this?

    (Trying to see the positive):P


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Holy crap

    giphy.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,149 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Some serious damage if that came to pass!

    Yep, I agree. Of all the days for that thing to come calling. It can feck right off. :)


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,631 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    06z control run ... MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMAL
    gens-0-1-228_bgr2.png

    raw

    plenty of people without Christmas dinner if that came off.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Looks like we are possibly in for some interesting weather.
    The ECMWF is showing 850hPa temps of -4 to -8 over the country on the 26th.

    screenshot_1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think the models certainly showing an unsettled period around Christmas but they differ a fair bit in timing and strength. Also as pedigree 6 pointed out showing more cold upper incursions around that time frame also. Some now showing colder days and very cold nights also. Could be a wintry mix and feeling quite raw in the wind. Possibility of big hail showers perhaps when fronts have gone through.

    HTMGSfN.png

    4kW8t4N.gif?1

    32gEVcf.png?2

    7BryhQd.png?1

    12Z GEFS Ensemble for a later time then the chart in the previous post above looking a lot more flabby.

    vKnGeel.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,010 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Not going to impact us ,and of course its FI but look at that low on the 18Z GFS just to the NW of Ireland for wednesday the 28th. 944 mb!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,866 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Well today has very much watered down the stormy picture for Christmas Eve / day. Still too early to call......time for upgrades tomorrow. Either way we'll have a good idea by Sunday


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Not going to impact us ,and of course its FI but look at that low on the 18Z GFS just to the NW of Ireland for wednesday the 28th. 944 mb!

    A Beast ! But yea a lot of these storms in FI never materialize, the 30th showing one atm as well.

    VYxfPbi.png

    SDDOP5j.png?1

    OGxUShJ.png?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Signs of cooler uppers around xmas

    1zlHXBg.png?1

    :pac:

    N3wCwNp.png?1

    :eek:

    jHX9xrt.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Christmas day looking markedly stormer in the latest GFS run.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Christmas day looking markedly stormer in the latest GFS run.

    :confused: Only looking at the GFS 12Z short time ago, out come the 06Z and big change again showing what was Christmas day stormy weather pushed out to early Stephens day and a decreases in strength...... To be continued :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭kittyn


    :confused: Only looking at the GFS 12Z short time ago, out come the 06Z and big change again showing what was Christmas day stormy weather pushed out to early Stephens day and a decreases in strength...... To be continued :)

    Charts seem to be all over the place at the moment, huge swings run to run 😱


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I'll just put this here for the snow lovin folks to whet their appetites !

    kjsUVKf.gif

    YVsHyDE.png

    Ugkbd00.png?1

    mDAR4k6.png?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    The models are sure all over the place the last few days. A couple of days ago there was no real chance of cold leading up to Xmas with Atlantic domination but charts today showing -6 uppers 22nd then milder then colder again for Xmas day, I think it's still all to play for. It must be a nightmare for forecasters as there is still no clear picture for next weekend.
    Hopefully whatever happens it will be a more interesting week than the past few.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    And the uncertainty continues on the 12Z GFS run, Stormy Christmas day on these, would need to see a few other models come on board and then consistently for a few runs to believe it.

    wqpMMic.png?1

    wqpMMic.png?1

    qQyCSqP.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Strong looking Jet at times through out the Holidays

    GCmQeNy.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

    Quite violent for the northern half of the country if this came to pass. From 12Z ECM.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    I'd make the assumption, even though we're in FI, that we're going to have a storm named 'B' between 24-26 December.

    Aengus effected the south of England in November. We seem to be dominating the naming of storms the last 2 years. Barney, Clodagh, Aengus. And the odd horrendous name like Gertrude thrown in :D

    Apologies to any boards weather poster who has a mammy, auntie or granny Gertie;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,644 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Matt Hugo just tweeted the 12Z EC for Christmas Day is an outlier on the extreme end, but LP in some shape or form may still develop.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,257 ✭✭✭Yourself isit


    Storm Barbara. If it happens. Second named storm of the winter and first to hit Ireland. If it happens which isn't certain. Anyway better than last year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The threat is now appearing to be more focused around Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.

    Large divergence in the handling of the low. However, significant risk and I'd expect there will be a large standby crew ready for some utilities over the Xmas period.

    gfs-0-162.png?6?6


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Widespread inland gusts reaching 60-70mph on latest run.

    Gusts along Atlantic coasts 80mph+

    GFSOPUK06_162_29.png


This discussion has been closed.
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