FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nagdefy

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Take this with plenty of salt. There is potentional for some white stuff on the big day in the northern half of the country. Some modals showing different variance in guidance but there is a chance. It will be all down to timing, flip a coin from Tropical maritime or Polor maritime air flow.

Some difference in the 850 temps north and south!

pedigree 6

It's livened up a fair bit here then.:D;)

It does look to be some beast though. Here it is from windytv.

Planet X

S / SW, should be nice and warm.......

Oscar Bravo

18Z GFS . all calm Christmas eve and the days before it. charts are all over the place. also showing high pressure slap bang over the country for NYE

nagdefy

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

18Z GFS . all calm Christmas eve and the days before it. charts are all over the place. also showing high pressure slap bang over the country for NYE

Suppose it's at the 8/9 day stage still. There'll be a bit of flip/flopping until Sunday at least.

Iancar29

06z control run ... MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMAL

Oscar Bravo

Some serious damage if that came to pass!

pedigree 6

Does anyone else think that these potential storms may actually be a good thing down the line and shake things up a bit??
Could we actually get a good Greenland high going from all this?

(Trying to see the positive):P

cherryghost

Iancar29 wrote: »

Holy crap

PukkaStukka

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some serious damage if that came to pass!

Yep, I agree. Of all the days for that thing to come calling. It can feck right off.

Gonzo

Iancar29 wrote: »

06z control run ... MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMAL

plenty of people without Christmas dinner if that came off.

pedigree 6

Looks like we are possibly in for some interesting weather.
The ECMWF is showing 850hPa temps of -4 to -8 over the country on the 26th.

Meteorite58

I think the models certainly showing an unsettled period around Christmas but they differ a fair bit in timing and strength. Also as pedigree 6 pointed out showing more cold upper incursions around that time frame also. Some now showing colder days and very cold nights also. Could be a wintry mix and feeling quite raw in the wind. Possibility of big hail showers perhaps when fronts have gone through.









12Z GEFS Ensemble for a later time then the chart in the previous post above looking a lot more flabby.

Oscar Bravo

Not going to impact us ,and of course its FI but look at that low on the 18Z GFS just to the NW of Ireland for wednesday the 28th. 944 mb!

JanuarySnowstor

Well today has very much watered down the stormy picture for Christmas Eve / day. Still too early to call......time for upgrades tomorrow. Either way we'll have a good idea by Sunday

Meteorite58

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Not going to impact us ,and of course its FI but look at that low on the 18Z GFS just to the NW of Ireland for wednesday the 28th. 944 mb!

A Beast ! But yea a lot of these storms in FI never materialize, the 30th showing one atm as well.

Meteorite58

Signs of cooler uppers around xmas



:pac:



:eek:

Meteorite58

Christmas day looking markedly stormer in the latest GFS run.

Meteorite58

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Christmas day looking markedly stormer in the latest GFS run.

Only looking at the GFS 12Z short time ago, out come the 06Z and big change again showing what was Christmas day stormy weather pushed out to early Stephens day and a decreases in strength...... To be continued

kittyn

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Only looking at the GFS 12Z short time ago, out come the 06Z and big change again showing what was Christmas day stormy weather pushed out to early Stephens day and a decreases in strength...... To be continued

Charts seem to be all over the place at the moment, huge swings run to run 😱

Meteorite58

I'll just put this here for the snow lovin folks to whet their appetites !

mickger844posts

The models are sure all over the place the last few days. A couple of days ago there was no real chance of cold leading up to Xmas with Atlantic domination but charts today showing -6 uppers 22nd then milder then colder again for Xmas day, I think it's still all to play for. It must be a nightmare for forecasters as there is still no clear picture for next weekend.
Hopefully whatever happens it will be a more interesting week than the past few.

Meteorite58

And the uncertainty continues on the 12Z GFS run, Stormy Christmas day on these, would need to see a few other models come on board and then consistently for a few runs to believe it.

Meteorite58

Strong looking Jet at times through out the Holidays

nagdefy

Quite violent for the northern half of the country if this came to pass. From 12Z ECM.

nagdefy

I'd make the assumption, even though we're in FI, that we're going to have a storm named 'B' between 24-26 December.

Aengus effected the south of England in November. We seem to be dominating the naming of storms the last 2 years. Barney, Clodagh, Aengus. And the odd horrendous name like Gertrude thrown in

Apologies to any boards weather poster who has a mammy, auntie or granny Gertie;)

Darwin

Matt Hugo just tweeted the 12Z EC for Christmas Day is an outlier on the extreme end, but LP in some shape or form may still develop.

Yourself isit

Storm Barbara. If it happens. Second named storm of the winter and first to hit Ireland. If it happens which isn't certain. Anyway better than last year.

ninebeanrows

The threat is now appearing to be more focused around Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.

Large divergence in the handling of the low. However, significant risk and I'd expect there will be a large standby crew ready for some utilities over the Xmas period.

ninebeanrows

Widespread inland gusts reaching 60-70mph on latest run.

Gusts along Atlantic coasts 80mph+