FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

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This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

Iancar29

First northerly of the season anyone? :cool:

Meteorite58

The first chart has the GEM showing the remnants of Karl ,after being incorporated into another low system, with a very large wind field brush up against Ireland around Tues.
The second GFS has a less amount of the remnants of Karl incorporated into a low pressure system with less strength and much further North around the same time. Time will tell.








And the possible cold spell after that ???

Meteorite58

On the latest 12z run the GFS indicating that we dodged the bullet from the remnants of Karl. The models in general I think are saying at the moment that the strongest part of the storm will keep to the North of us.





The WRF 06z run possibly showing the storm closer and earlier.

MidMan25

lapua20grain wrote: »

Ok cheers

He mentioned October over on the Netweather Forum. No idea if that is the start or end though

V_Moth

This one from GDPS last Monday was pretty funky. Also showed >F10 gusts in southern Germany 12 hours later:

Meteorite58

Set to continue unsettled for the week , as Met Eireann called it a mobile Atlantic flow. A very deep depression showing up on the models for next Sat/ Sun according to the 06z GFS, CMC has it arriving about 48 hrs later . Long way off yet so no doubt will see this modify as the days go on.

Meteorite58

Definitely want to keep an open mind to the models at the moment, seen some big variants between even consecutive runs. This deepening depression is showing up now in a few of the models but the tendency at the moment is for it to just glance off Ireland before heading almost in reverse back to the NW. Both the GEM and GFS have it around early Mon morning.

Meteorite58

That hefty and deep looking storm the weekend is set to stay well out in the Atlantic I would think. Meanwhile it looks to me like a continuation of an active Atlantic Regime next week with another big depression sweeping into the Atlantic midweek but at this stage looks to mainly stay away from Ireland and then it would seem that a big High pressure builds over Scandinavia bringing an E'ly in from Europe at the end of next week, no real cold weather yet it would seem, Europe still very mild.

Iancar29

:cool::cool::cool: Wouldn't mind this at all at all

Meteorite58

Two Blocking High Pressures, one over Scandinavia and one out in the Atlantic Keeping an area of lower pressure with cloud and outbreaks of rain over Ireland/ England for a few days run up to this date if it comes off. The Atlantic High pressure doing a good job of keeping that Storm ( ex Nicole ) to the left of it out of the way in this run anyway. Snow Showing up over Scandinavia.




This High Pressure would be nice if it happens

Captain Snow

This high pressure set up reminds me of the last week of October 2003.

We had Thunder Snow events along the east coast and alot of snow on higher ground.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/33065-x-treme-irish-weather-october-2003/

Iancar29

Some high ground white stuff possible if this were to come to fruition



Heights building into Greenland too

Iancar29

Some nice outputs from the GFS ensembles... all have potential for at least high ground wintry showers.

Meteorite58

Yea, big plunge of cold uppers showing up from about the 1st until the 7th at least, other charts showing a mix of high and low pressures and sporadic rainfall but way too early to tell for sure. After this weeks temps getting up to mid teens, next week looking decidedly cooler with charts showing daytime temps around 7- 9C





Cold Northerly wind ( windchill ! )

Meteorite58

Well latest charts not showing those cold uppers until around the 6th ( but of course this could change too )


For comparison today's run for the 1st Nov

Meteorite58

After a return to more unsettled cold windy and at times wet weather this weekend it would seem to me that Low pressures are returning from next week in a more vigorous Atlantic regime with systems passing North of us producing windy and wet weather and making it feel wintry at times when fronts go through and dragging down Nw'ly winds and no doubt hail and wintry showers .

ArKl0w

I'll just leave this here shall I


https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/793447814059659264

droidman123

Why do people keep posting links to the weather forecast for the uk on a site predomintely read in ireland? What is the point?

ArKl0w

droidman123 wrote: »

Why do people keep posting links to the weather forecast for the uk on a site predomintely read in ireland? What is the point?

Errr because what's talked about in that link is relevant to Irish weather this winter

The BBC report on this today translated the jargon as a higher risk of artic sourced northeasterlies being more likely due to signs of Atlantic blocking,a weaker polar vortex,an unusually warm North Pole and bitter air already seeping further south earlier than usual with a lot of northern Eurasia under snow today right down to Moscow

I'm actually excited

Gonzo

we really need a proper easterly this winter, anything else rarely delivers much more than dandruff around these parts. Sea track from Liverpool would be decent and no Isle of Man to spoil the fun.

Elmer Blooker

Winter is approaching which can only mean the return of "IT"

ArKl0w

06z GFS opens the freezer door :eek:
No polar vortex at all meaning a potentially relentless leak of very cold air south and southwestwards towards the end of the month

https://imgur.com/gallery/Pr0Yt

naughto

Where's all the maps with the bright colours that I have no idea what they mean, and never mind your rowing

pad199207

ArKl0w wrote: »

06z GFS opens the freezer door :eek:
No polar vortex at all meaning a potentially relentless leak of very cold air south and southwestwards towards the end of the month

https://imgur.com/gallery/Pr0Yt

A lot of caution advised though. Model volatility is rampant at the moment. Most of the "juicy" charts are all post 10 days.
The smooth transition into the reliable like in 2010 is a long way off yet, ofcourse that would be the ideal scenario!

Gonzo

usually the cold is always 10 days away and this 10 days away is usually chased for 3 months till we end up in mid March!

Tabnabs

Gonzo wrote: »

usually the cold is always 10 days away and this 10 days away is usually chased for 3 months till we end up in mid March!

Should be the motto of the snowlovers threads :pac:

pistolpetes11

OFF TOPIC POSTS REMOVED , KEEP TO THREAD TITLE PLEASE

Coles

Nasty looking wind/rain event showing up for Saturday/Sunday (19th November)

Elmer Blooker

Gonzo wrote: »

usually the cold is always 10 days away and this 10 days away is usually chased for 3 months till we end up in mid March!

:pac: .... also when desperation sets in around mid February and the sun is climbing the search for a sudden stratospheric warming is the last throw of the dice!

Joanna Donnelly mentioned on the radio this morning that it will turn a lot colder at the end of next week, before that some very mild weather (14c) for the early days of next week.

Gonzo

cold doesn't look to say around for long, maybe 2 days tops.

Gonzo

cold doesn't look to stay around for long, maybe 2 days tops.

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/gavinpartridge/status/797158873476038656

pedigree 6

Just for sport, a few pixels on the Dublin/Wicklow mountains on the 20th nov.


http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GFSS

I only highlighted Britain and Ireland for a screen grab forecast snowcover in the pic.
But you can play around in the link for forecasts.

KingdomRushed

I noticed this morning potential for colder weather near month's end is increasing. The GFS has developed a theme for a notherly/northeasterly outbreak following this weekend's northwesterly sourced and somewhat stormy conditions. The ECM is different but not a hundred miles away.

What's notable so far this November, is that in contrast to previous years, if you look at the entire Northern Hemisphere profile on the model charts, that there is no consistent sign of the super-cold airflow establishing over Canada, Labrador which has resulted in the stormy atlantic we have become used to. Looking at today's charts I would say we would see some more frosts from the end of this week, and hill snow in the north.
Certainly some promise in the game for those of us who yearn for a seasonal cold-snap in the run up to Christmas.

ArKl0w

Yeah the downflow seems to be on the eastern side of the pole this year which means if we do get a Scandinavian high,there will be lots of deep cold pools for advection westward
So 2 options well and truly open this year
North east and east should highs orientate near Iceland or Scandinavia

Realistically it's going to be into December though before we see this start to pan out if it does

Elmer Blooker

Gonzo wrote: »

usually the cold is always 10 days away and this 10 days away is usually chased for 3 months till we end up in mid March!

ALWAYS 10 days away ...... well 11 to be exact in this case!

ArKl0w

Meanwhile in Bulgaria ,one of our inevitable sources eventually ,its -7c (albeit on a mountain)

https://twitter.com/schafernaker/status/798516366479392768

icesnowfrost

That Low pulls in a nice northerly next week.

naughto

Is this what mt was on about for the end of November

Elmer Blooker

Ten days away and the perfect "Gonzo"
Look at that northern blocking! Too good to be true?

ArKl0w

Nah That's a perfect ArKl0w northeasterly

In the above Gonzo would be in the Isle of Man shadow
A perfect Gonzo is an easterly;)

Although to be honest,the snowstorms would be so big in the above,we'd all be so buried,you could probably walk to the Isle of Man

Gonzo

ArKl0w wrote: »

Nah That's a perfect ArKl0w northeasterly

In the above Gonzo would be in the Isle of Man shadow
A perfect Gonzo is an easterly;)

Although to be honest,the snowstorms would be so big in the above,we'd all be so buried,you could probably walk to the Isle of Man

Ive goten kicked in the teeth so many times by that Isle of Man shadow.

As a kid in the 80s I used to go mad seeing no snow here and 10 minutes away there could be a foot of it. Over 20 years later I realized it was the Isle of Man spoiling my fun the whole time.

The Uk dont know who lucky they have it, any easterly or northerly there is unbroken, huge sea tracks and no shadows.

ArKl0w

Aye,but huge areas of the UK get nothing in an Easterly or northeasterly too

I can smell snow this winter though with the way things are going up north and after a couple of near misses in the coming weeks,we'll get there eventually I'd say

pauldry

Gonzo wrote: »

Ive goten kicked in the teeth so many times by that Isle of Man shadow.

As a kid in the 80s I used to go mad seeing no snow here and 10 minutes away there could be a foot of it. Over 20 years later I realized it was the Isle of Man spoiling my fun the whole time.

The Uk dont know who lucky they have it, any easterly or northerly there is unbroken, huge sea tracks and no shadows.

In sligo a northerly doesnt even bring much snow sometimes due to the Ben Bulben shadow

Captain Snow

A nice FI chart. All that cold just waiting to exploded towards us. LOL

I think we have a really good chance this winter of some good snowfall.

Like 2010 2011 winter.

icesnowfrost

Can anybody tell me where I can find this live snow radar. I don't no what it's called.
Thanks

hatrickpatrick

I'm seeing a lot more high pressure trying to push its way up through the Atlantic than in any recent year, even if at the moment the polar vortex is strong enough to keep sweeping it aside. In the last 2-3 years, I don't recall seeing it even "try" to expand northwards beyond one or two small blips. Seems like a good sign if we're hoping for some Atlantic blocking later on in the year.

I also don't understand the technical details behind SSWs except that they can fracture the polar vortex favourably for us, but the folks over on Netweather who are monitoring the stratosphere and its effect on the PV seem far more cheery and optimistic this year than in any previous year. I mean there's always a lot of ramping, but it's generally not backed up by the "sciencey" types on these forums. This year I seem to be noticing more consensus among those science folks that there is potential for fireworks in this particular winter.

RazorT

Netweather Snow Radar App can be found on the Google play store.

pedigree 6

:D

pedigree 6

Big difference with the 06z gfs compared to the previous chart.
I think it's that time when you pick your favourite chart.:p
Especially when it's so far off.